Co-production of multi-annual climate services to support food and wine production resilience

Nature and society are experiencing unprecedented challenges due to impacts of climate change. These impacts compromise the security of several sectors such as agriculture, biodiversity, water management, food production and economy. Changes in temperature trends, precipitation regimes and increased frequency of extreme climate events due to climate change affect crop production. Besides, natural climate variability at annual to decadal time scales also affects crop yields and alters the optimal crop seasons and varieties. Examples of climate events that affect agricultural productivity are shifts in the rainy season, more intense and frequent heatwaves, prolonged droughts and floods.

Decision-makers could use information on climate change and variability years in advance to develop adaptation policies to reduce risk and losses. Potential adaptation strategies are investment in new irrigation technologies, sustainable water management, selection of crop varieties, sustainable agricultural practices, purchase of pesticides, agroforestry and livelihood diversification. To support their decisions, climate information can be extracted from decadal climate prediction models, which have been recently shown to be skilful in predicting mean and extreme temperature and precipitation and drought conditions over several land regions.

To illustrate the climate services co-production based on multi-annual predictions, we present the implementation of two services. The services aim to support food security in Tanzania and Malawi, and wine sector activities in Catalonia, as part of the FOCUS-Africa and ASPECT projects. The climate information on multi-annual time scales has been provided through an interactive online website where the climate predictions and their quality can be accessed. In addition, co-designed multi-annual bulletins summarise the predictions in an accessible language and show maps of the most relevant variables and periods. Using these documents during in-person meetings helped involve participants, facilitate discussion, and concretise feedback. Co-production is an ongoing process of improving and tailoring climate information for its usability in decision-making processes.