ES1.4 | National and international climate services: user engagement and governance
National and international climate services: user engagement and governance
Convener: Carlo Buontempo | Co-conveners: Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Omar Bellprat, Freja Vamborg
Orals
| Tue, 03 Sep, 09:00–13:00 (CEST)
 
Lecture room A-112
Posters
| Attendance Tue, 03 Sep, 18:00–19:30 (CEST) | Display Mon, 02 Sep, 08:30–Tue, 03 Sep, 19:30
Orals |
Tue, 09:00
Tue, 18:00
This session encourages the submission of papers focusing on the engagement strategies and governance structures for climate services as they emerge from national and international efforts. This includes also the large international effort on climate services such as, for example, Copernicus, Destination Earth, My climate risk, or the Global Framework on Climate Services.

We welcome the submission of papers covering topics such as:
• Mechanisms and structures for establishing and maintaining sustainable climate services and partnerships between researchers, providers, and translators, and managing expectations of users
• Communicating capabilities and limitations of climate information (including trust, usability, and uncertainty)
• Challenges and issues arising in the provision of information about high-impact climate extremes
• Interaction with major research initiatives such as, for European downscaling, Euro-CORDEX, Med-CORDEX and VALUE and, with respect to earth observations and climate predictions and projections, the COPERNICUS programme
• Examples of information being used to support decision or policy making
• The interaction between climate and weather services

We also welcome submissions which are reflecting on:
• The need for information on different timeframes and spatial scales
• The climate service requirements emerging from different types of users, providers, and intermediaries
• Comparisons of different approaches to climate services being taken in different countries
• How the different funding and access models (e.g., publicly-funded, commercial services) lead to different typologies of services

Orals: Tue, 3 Sep | Lecture room A-112

Chairpersons: Carlo Buontempo, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Omar Bellprat
09:00–09:15
09:15–09:30
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EMS2024-608
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Onsite presentation
Enric Aguilar, Anna Boqué-Ciurana, Jon Olano, Kossi Agniga, Sebastian Grey, and Tania Gascon

The UN's 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda sets a crucial target: eradicating hunger, yet progress has been insufficient. According to the FAO, more than 735 million people still suffer from hunger. This issue isn't evenly distributed globally; it hits hardest in less developed nations where agriculture sustains many livelihoods. Weather patterns, climate variations, and climate change all disrupt crop cycles, complicating agricultural planning and production.

To assist farmers, weather-based crop calendars have become invaluable. These calendars utilize historical rainfall data to offer practical insights into optimal planting and harvesting times for various crops and regions. Creating these calendars demands precise rainfall data to pinpoint the start and end of rainy seasons, alongside crop-specific knowledge like drought resistance and growth duration.

Determining the onset and end of the rainy season relies on complex threshold-based methods. These methods analyze accumulated rainfall over multiple days, incorporating additional criteria to avoid false alarms. By fitting this data to probability distributions, climatological expectations for early, normal, and late onsets and cessations of the rainy season are evaluated. The resulting crop calendar aligns early, normal, or late rainy season onsets with optimal sowing dates, while harvest dates are calculated based on sowing dates and crop growth cycles.

In collaboration with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and initiatives like the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) project in West Africa and the Enhancing Adaptive Capacity of Andean Communities through Climate Services (ENANDES) project in South America, a suite of tools has been developed. Following a comprehensive "from data to service" approach, these tools are accompanied by training events to empower local communities.

This process is exemplified through the utilization of rainfall data from Togo. By integrating meteorological insights into practical agricultural guidance, these initiatives strive to enhance food security and resilience in vulnerable regions. Ultimately, these efforts contribute to the broader mission of achieving the UN's Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger by 2030.

How to cite: Aguilar, E., Boqué-Ciurana, A., Olano, J., Agniga, K., Grey, S., and Gascon, T.: Creating tools for the generation of weather-based crop calendars to support climate services, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-608, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-608, 2024.

09:30–09:45
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EMS2024-1023
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Onsite presentation
David Hoffmann, Tess Parker, and Jessica Bhardwaj

Drought, as a recurrent phenomenon, exerts a profound impact on Australia's agricultural productivity, water resources, ecosystem health, and socio-economic stability, while also serving as a catalyst for heatwaves and severe fire seasons. Drought can manifest on varied timescales, leading to non-linear and complex impacts. Long-term droughts in Australia are often linked to large-scale climate modes including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and the Southern Annular Mode. Contrary to the belief that drought is a slow onset hazard, drought conditions affecting agriculture can also develop rapidly in a matter of weeks under favourable synoptic conditions (flash drought) and may compound with heatwaves and high fire risk.  

The several types of drought and driving factors preclude a uniform definition and as a result many drought indices exist. However, most climate information portals offer only precipitation-based measures as a drought proxy, often neglecting important changes in temperature and evaporation, that do not sufficiently capture changes in drought intensity, frequency, and duration to support informed decision-making. Additionally, the rarity of drought events in historical observations, together with the high variability and uncertainties in the magnitude of precipitation change and the response of large-scale atmospheric circulations to global warming, challenge reliable future projections. 

The Australian Climate Service (ACS) has been formed to provide improved data, intelligence and expert advice on climate risks and impacts to support and inform decision-making. Recognising the significance of drought as well as current knowledge and service gaps, the ACS has recently established a dedicated Climate Hazard Team to comprehensively investigate drought and changing aridity across Australia under global warming. This team is one of ten covering natural hazards of importance at a national level in Australia – identified via the National Climate Risk Assessment. The hazard teams unite the ACS Partners CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology, Geoscience Australia, and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, as well as other experts from across Australia, including those at universities. The team will provide actionable information for resilience and adaptation strategies using a suite of drought indices calculated from observational and downscaled climate model data, drawing on top-tier scientific knowledge from ACS and university partners to fill these gaps. 

This presentation will provide an overview of the Australian Climate Service, the drought hazard team in particular, drought research and services for Australia, and findings to support communities, emergency management and federal government in taking informed decisions. 

How to cite: Hoffmann, D., Parker, T., and Bhardwaj, J.: Enhancing Australia's Drought Resilience: Insights from the Australian Climate Service Hazard Teams, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-1023, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-1023, 2024.

09:45–10:00
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EMS2024-965
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Onsite presentation
Ángel G. Muñoz, Carmen González Romero, Alan García, Diego Campos, and Zain Alabweh

Climate services ecosystems are dynamic complex network of institutions, agents, information, knowledge, products and services functioning as a unit, at any (or across multiple) spatial or temporal scale(s), with the objective of supporting decision-making to enhance the resilience to a changing climate, and support countries and institutions to achieve their adaptation and mitigation goals while optimising available resources (González Romero et al., BAMS, sub-judice). 

Similarly to natural ecosystems, climate services ecosystems are self-contained and self-adjusting, having the ability to adapt in response to changes in the network or system (MilleniumEcosystemAssessment, 2003). Ideally, the more interconnected and interdependent the elements of the climate service ecosystem are, the higher the value and resilience of its network (e.g. Sawai 2013; Watts and Strogatz 1998).

Here, ecosystems of climate services in Guatemala and Chile are analysed and contrasted, using the González Romero et al (BAMS, sub-judice) approach, based on Dynamic Causal (Bayesian) Network Theory. Bayesian Network Analysis here aims at infering probabilities under changing conditions, like changes induced by programs, policies, budgets, institutional changes or any other external interventions. The causal assumptions that can be inferred from Bayesian Network Analysis identify relationships that remain invariant when external conditions change, allowing for the assessment of these changes, predictions of plausible scenarios and evaluation of counter-factuals and testable scenarios (e.g. Pearl, 2009). The assessment of causality derived from a Bayesian Network Analysis implies that the influence of one event onto another is stable and autonomous, so the change in one of them would necessarily result on a change in the linked event.

This research also involves an assessment of how optimal each network of climate services is, including potential improvements, and also an intercomparison -whenever possible- between the two sample ecosystems.

How to cite: Muñoz, Á. G., González Romero, C., García, A., Campos, D., and Alabweh, Z.: Ecosystems of Climate Services in Latin America: examples from Guatemala and Chile, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-965, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-965, 2024.

10:00–10:15
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EMS2024-885
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Onsite presentation
Ángel G. Muñoz, Sheetal Saklani, Carmen González Romero, and Albert Soret

The joint effects of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change pose unprecedented impacts to contemporary society. Adequate management of present and future climate risk not only enables society to decrease climate impacts, but also to take advantage of climate-related opportunities that can appear in the future. 

One way to understand the risk is in terms of both the related climate hazards and society’s vulnerability to such hazards.  Although there are multiple tools and services dealing with monitoring and forecasting of such hazards, even if those services were perfectly successful at identifying and forecasting the hazard occurrence and characteristics, the large vulnerability exhibited by society gets translated in most cases into a non-negligible climate risk.

Since vulnerability is a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, controlling these components is key to decrease climate risk. A concrete way to increase adaptive capacity, and hence decrease vulnerability, is by co-developing a set of complementary services –an ecosystem of services– that are fit for the purpose, and tailored to the concrete decision-makers’ demand. As such, these services should comprehensively consider hazards and vulnerabilities at multiple timescales, rather than focusing on one particular timescale (e.g. the next rainfall season, or the next few years).

At the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, the Earth System Services group is working on the co-development of an ecosystem of financial services to increase adaptive capacity and thus transfer climate risk, across timescales. The approach can be defined as an optimised “Ready-Set-Go” approach (Goddard et al., 2014), in which optimisation occurs using Dynamic Causal Network Theory, enabling the identification of the most efficient network configurations to efficiently communicate and use climate information produced by the different actors in the ecosystem.

As part of this ecosystem of services, BSC is co-developing decision-maker-centred valuation approaches in which, for example, the quality and value of climate services is defined based on a combination of quantitative metrics to address multiple service attributes desired by the users of the services.  

The complementary financial tools part of the financial services ecosystems co-designed with decision makers at BSC involve instruments such as index-based (or parametric) insurance (IbI) and forecast-based action (FbA) -including forecast-based finance (FbF)-, with the particularity that the services’ triggers and thresholds are dynamically defined across-timescales, in contrast with the traditional approach that focuses on more static or stationary definitions related to the immediate timescale of interest. 

Some of these services are being implemented right now in Horizon Europe projects such as Adaptation-oriented Seamless Predictions of European ClimaTe (ASPECT) and Piloting Innovative Insurance Solutions for Adaptation (PIISA), and in Blending knowledge from climate predictiOns and pRojEctions to mAke the Spanish energy sector more resilient to climate variability and climate change (BOREAS).

How to cite: Muñoz, Á. G., Saklani, S., González Romero, C., and Soret, A.: “Ready-Set-Go!” optimisation: Towards an ecosystem of cross-timescale financial services to transfer climate risk , EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-885, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-885, 2024.

10:15–10:30
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EMS2024-894
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Onsite presentation
Sam Grainger, Suraje Dessai, Andrea Taylor, Aleksandra Krzic, Uroš Davidović, Sheetal Saklani, Jaroslav Mysiak, Carmen Gonzalez Romero, and Helena Martins

In recent years, shifts in climate patterns, coupled with emerging policy drivers and frameworks, have significantly heightened the demand for high-quality weather and climate information within organisations. This information is critical to support adaptation decision-making across short, medium, and long-term horizons. Despite substantial international efforts in climate services, such as the Copernicus program and the Global Framework on Climate Services, gaps persist in our understanding of how organisations are adapting to this evolving landscape and effectively utilising information. To address this gap, we conducted a quantitative survey in late 2023, involving over 1,800 climate-sensitive organisations across almost all European countries, with particularly high representation from countries with larger populations and economies. This survey focused mainly on perceived organisational impacts due to weather/climate and information use. 

Our findings highlight that extreme heat and heavy rainfall are the most impactful events affecting these organisations, with significant concerns centred around the safety of people, the integrity of premises, and the continuity of service delivery and production. Notably, 77% of respondents actively use weather and/or climate information, and 51% of non-users anticipate future needs, suggesting that nearly 90% of organisations recognise the value of this information. This widespread utilisation underscores the vital role of information in strategic planning and risk management. However, a strong reliance on weather forecasts and limited adoption of seasonal to decadal forecast information suggest needs are not being fully met. Approximately 30% of climate information users specifically point to issues with the accessibility, reliability, and customisation of climate information as areas requiring improvement. Furthermore, respondents not currently utilising climate information cite a lack of expertise/resources, perceived unreliability or inaccuracy, difficulty in comprehension, and unfamiliarity as major barriers. Both these findings indicate that improvements are necessary in the tailoring and accessibility of climate services. Additionally, there is a need to raise awareness about the value and limitations of climate information, and to assist organisations in building in-house capacity and expertise. This will enable them to confidently understand and effectively utilise information in their decision-making contexts.

In conclusion, our study reveals a strong demand for tailored, reliable, and accessible climate information within European organisations. It highlights the importance of continuous improvements in climate service development and the establishment of effective governance mechanisms and structures to ensure their sustainability and effectiveness. As we move forward, fostering better engagement strategies, managing user expectations, and addressing the challenges in providing high-quality climate information will be imperative for integrating actionable climate knowledge into organisational planning and operations, thus enhancing resilience across Europe.

How to cite: Grainger, S., Dessai, S., Taylor, A., Krzic, A., Davidović, U., Saklani, S., Mysiak, J., Gonzalez Romero, C., and Martins, H.: Climate information use in European organisations: Insights from a quantitative survey., EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-894, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-894, 2024.

Coffee break
Chairpersons: Carlo Buontempo, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Omar Bellprat
11:00–11:15
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EMS2024-463
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Onsite presentation
Rosa Rantanen

As climate security is an emerging topic in research, civil society and decision-making, it is becoming an inescapable component of transdisciplinary discussions about climate change related risks. While it is important to discuss climate change in the context of security, it is also essential to keep asking questions such as: What do we mean by security? How can we ensure that security is implemented in socially just and environmentally friendly ways? What is the role of meteorologists, and research in general, in supporting truly cross-sectoral collaboration in understanding, mitigating and adapting to climate change related risks?

This presentation aims to answer these questions by discussing the wider societal context of meteorological research and some pitfalls of securitazation in the context of climate change, and by providing a practical example of transdisciplinary collaboration. The first ever Climate Security Festival was organized in 2023 in the Finnish Meteorological Institute by the Safer Climate network (based at the Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), University of Helsinki) and the Committee of 100 in Finland. The transdisciplinary event gathered almost a 100 people together and utilized varying methods, including participatory activities and artistic approaches, to nurture a multifaceted understanding of climate security. The event program was focused around workshops, where people could share information, discuss and experience together in an open, low-hierarchy environment. The overall feedback of the event was very positive and resulted in new connections, experiences and continuing collaborations.

Collaboration, citizen engagment and social justice are included in numerous security and climate strategies, guidelines and legislations in local, national and international levels. For implementing these guidelines to raise awareness and mitigate climate related security threats, it is crucial to understand how to build and facilitate transdisciplinary collaborations that nurture learning, understanding and cross-sectoral science-based solutions. This can support us in avoiding polarization and conflicts within transdisciplinary research and the society at large.

How to cite: Rantanen, R.: No Climate Security Without Collaboration and Social Justice , EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-463, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-463, 2024.

11:15–11:30
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EMS2024-157
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Onsite presentation
Andreas Fischer, Angela Michiko Hama, Lena Gubler, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Andrea Möller, and Mischa Croci-Maspoli

The currently running “NCCS-Impacts” programme of the Swiss National Centre for Climate Services (NCCS) is dedicated to the analysis of selected cross-sectoral climatic impacts under future climate change in Switzerland. Previous work within the NCCS network such as the climate change scenarios CH2018 and hydrological scenarios Hydro-CH2018 serve as central pillars to carry out projects on the following aspects: (1) socioeconomic scenarios, (2) human and animal health, (3) ecosystem services, (4) supply chains, and (5) economic costs. The different projects are inter-linked with each other, share manifold synergies and jointly elaborate the two cross-cutting themes ‘social justice’ and ‘extreme events’.

In addition to the generation of new science-based insights on climatic impacts in Switzerland and their central challenges for the environment, economy and society, NCCS-Impacts also has a clear focus on the development and provision of actionable products for decision-makers in the field of climate adaptation and mitigation. To this end, the work in the five different projects follow a co-production approach with consortia composed of 17 partners from research and practice. The projects run from 2023 until 2025. 2026 will be devoted to a programme-wide synthesis.

Serving as a pit stop of the programme, this presentation will cover the main achievements reached so far. This includes intermediate results regarding the newly elaborated Swiss Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP-CH) and future projections on heat mortality and heat vulnerability aspects. The presentation will also reflect on experiences and lessons learnt made in terms of governance of the programme and provide a framework on how the project results are consolidated into the joint programme synthesis.

How to cite: Fischer, A., Hama, A. M., Gubler, L., Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Möller, A., and Croci-Maspoli, M.: Pit stop of the cross-sectoral programme “NCCS-Impacts”: preliminary results, lessons learnt and the way forward, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-157, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-157, 2024.

11:30–11:45
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EMS2024-735
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Onsite presentation
Claire Scannell, Keith Lambkin, and Jordan Delmar

The establishment of a National Framework for Climate Services in Ireland followed a low risk, yet high impact “project-first” approach to understand the national relevance and appetite for a coordinated approach to climate services. Rather than begin with a National Framework for Climate Services, and be unsure of its interest or value, this “project-first” approach allowed Met Éireann to identify relevant stakeholders, evaluate engagement and discover potential problems. As projects are time bound, this was a low-risk method of determining appetite for a more permanent national solution to provision and sharing of climate information.

Following the publication of the National Adaptation Plan and recommendations from the Irish Climate Change Advisory Council, there was an unprecedented requirement for accessible and robust climate information to support decision making and adaptation planning. At this time the Irish climate services landscape was fragmented and climate information for Ireland was developed in an ad hoc, project-to-project basis. There were no clear mechanisms or structures in place for establishing and maintaining sustainable climate services and partnerships between researchers, providers, policy makers and end users. Met Éireann saw the need for both the development of a common set of climate projections to help Irish society speak the same climate language and the establishment of a permanent national framework for climate services. This led to a national research call (to build national capability), from Met Éireann and in 2021 the TRANSLATE project was founded. TRANSLATE became the seed that led to the establishment of this permanent national framework.

National collaboration, knowledge sharing, and co-production of data and services are central to the TRANSLATE ethos. A key challenge of this project was bringing the whole Irish climate science and services community together and subscribe to a collaborative approach. Rather than work in isolation and leveraging Met Éireann’s position as the National Met Service, an organisation that naturally bridges the science-policy-user interface, Met Éireann brought together the national community – (all of whom would be required under a successful national framework) - under the TRANSLATE banner. This “all-Ireland” approach was so effective that it has led to the establishment of a permanent National Framework for Climate Services.

Here we describe an “all-Government” approach to building permanent mechanisms and structures for developing and maintaining sustainable and scalable climate services and partnerships across the science-policy-user interface by establishing an inclusive National Framework for Climate Services. We explore the challenges, barriers and successes in establishing and operationalising of a National Framework for Climate Services in Ireland.

How to cite: Scannell, C., Lambkin, K., and Delmar, J.: Ireland’s Route to a permanent National Framework for Climate Services, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-735, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-735, 2024.

11:45–12:00
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EMS2024-489
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Onsite presentation
Fai Fung and Neha Mittal

The knowledge base to support climate change adaptation is rapidly growing with the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2022 report on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability with over 34,000 citations; nearly three times compared to its predecessor published in 2014. This information is complex, requiring specialist knowledge to interpret the science and further expertise to understand how to act upon the information. The small pool of experts across the world presents a challenge with the need of an ever-growing set of decision-makers who need tailored information.

To date, most attention has focused on the use of machine learning for climate science rather than the application of AI technologies to enhance climate services provision. With the advent of public access to large language models and more generally, generative AI technologies, we consider here the opportunities that they bring to solve the problems around delivering climate services but also the implications on the pillars of saliency, credibility and legitimacy.

We present the findings from the “Towards AI for Climate Services” workshop held on 22 February 2024 in the UK which aimed to understand if and how AI technologies could help to address existing challenges in the sector. Participants represented academic, public and private providers of climate and AI services. Discussions focused on three aspects: challenges in climate services that AI technologies are addressing, emerging risks with employing AI technologies and pathways to mitigating these risks.

We will show that while many of the issues raised are not exclusive to using AI technologies, their rapid development and accessibility suggest that the climate services sector need to urgently engage with the debate

How to cite: Fung, F. and Mittal, N.: Does AI mean we need to do climate services differently?, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-489, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-489, 2024.

12:00–12:15
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EMS2024-725
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Onsite presentation
Asta Raagaard Jønsson, Mette Høj Lauridsen, Julie Stensballe, and Mark R. Payne

Climate services typically provide information with the goal of supporting climate adaptation at the local level: a successful climate service is therefore one that has impact on society and that is used to make decisions. While quantifying this impact is essential for ensuring the continued relevance of the service and for justifying continued funding, it is not clear how best this should be done. For example, standard metrics used within academia, such as the number of citations a paper or dataset receives, are not relevant, as most users of a climate service are not engaged in the publication of manuscripts. Similarly, standard web-oriented metrics such as number of page views do not reflect how the data is actually used to make decisions, and their representativeness of impact is often clouded by GDPR and privacy requirements. Here we describe our attempts to quantify the societal impact of Klimaatlas, the Danish National Climate Atlas. We centre our work around an analysis of the DK2020 climate action plans prepared by all 98 municipalities in Denmark, focussing on cases both where Klimaatlas has been used extensively and where it has not been used at all to understand the reasons for these outcomes. We also analyse the results of a user satisfaction survey and follow up interviews to get a better understanding of how Klimaatlas is used. The work shows that over 90% of all municipalities in Denmark use Klimaatlas to some degree. The impact analysis also revealed uses of Klimaatlas in other layers of government, in education, literature and private industry, many of which we were previously unaware of. Here we will focus on the lessons learnt from this exercise, and in particular on the need to think impact assessments directly into the design of climate services from the very start. Clearly expressed requirements for how to cite the data can also aid impact tracking, as well as privacy-compliant mechanisms to track usage and the use of standard identifiers such DOIs.

How to cite: Jønsson, A. R., Lauridsen, M. H., Stensballe, J., and Payne, M. R.: How do we measure the impact of a Climate Service? Lessons learned from Klimaatlas, the Danish National Climate Atlas, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-725, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-725, 2024.

12:15–12:30
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EMS2024-852
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Onsite presentation
Karianne Ødemark, Reidun Gangstø, and Hans Olav Hygen

Global temperatures have reached record high levels for 10 months in a row (Copernicus Monthly Climate Bulletin March 2024). At the same time the 2023-2024 cold season in the Nordic region had negative temperature anomalies from October to January, and the region therefore stood out from the rest of the world as a cold blue dot in a red hot world. 

 

A period of 5 days during January with particularly low temperatures, was classified as a severe cold spell by the World Weather Attribution group and therefore an attribution study of the event was performed. The Norwegian Meteorological Institute together with other institutes from the Nordic countries participated in the study. The results showed that the event would have been even colder had it not been for human made climate change. The rarity of the event was also described, which is an important perspective to provide within our climate services. We will present the findings, and will in addition give an overview on the experience from public outreach and communication of this study. 

 

Furthermore, we will present an analysis of the atmospheric characteristics that led to the persistent below normal temperatures in the region for the season overall. During the winter we gained experience on public outreach in a contrasting situation between the cold Nordic region and the rest of the globe. 

 

In addition to low temperatures, several places sat new records for snow depth during the winter. Recurring heavy snowfall events caused difficulties for public transportation systems and also led to school closures. These events got a lot of media attention since a large part of the population was affected, and we will present the researchers work together with the communication department at MET Norway on handling the media attention, as well as our services to municipalities and public transportation companies. 

 

We will highlight our experiences, including how the researchers within the climate services, forecasters and communication group  at MET Norway organized the work on public outreach in cooperation. There will be an emphasis in the presentation on the duality of communicating about a warm world and Europe at the same time as we had a severe cold wave in Scandinavia.

How to cite: Ødemark, K., Gangstø, R., and Hygen, H. O.: The cold blue dot - Winter of 2023 - 24 in Scandinavia, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-852, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-852, 2024.

12:30–12:45
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EMS2024-62
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Onsite presentation
Carlos Delgado-Torres, Sara Octenjak, Raül Marcos, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Markus G. Donat, Nadia Milders, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Albert Soret, Marta Terrado, Verónica Torralba, and Dragana Bojovic

Nature and society are experiencing unprecedented challenges due to impacts of climate change. These impacts compromise the security of several sectors such as agriculture, biodiversity, water management, food production and economy. Changes in temperature trends, precipitation regimes and increased frequency of extreme climate events due to climate change affect crop production. Besides, natural climate variability at annual to decadal time scales also affects crop yields and alters the optimal crop seasons and varieties. Examples of climate events that affect agricultural productivity are shifts in the rainy season, more intense and frequent heatwaves, prolonged droughts and floods.

Decision-makers could use information on climate change and variability years in advance to develop adaptation policies to reduce risk and losses. Potential adaptation strategies are investment in new irrigation technologies, sustainable water management, selection of crop varieties, sustainable agricultural practices, purchase of pesticides, agroforestry and livelihood diversification. To support their decisions, climate information can be extracted from decadal climate prediction models, which have been recently shown to be skilful in predicting mean and extreme temperature and precipitation and drought conditions over several land regions.

To illustrate the climate services co-production based on multi-annual predictions, we present the implementation of two services. The services aim to support food security in Tanzania and Malawi, and wine sector activities in Catalonia, as part of the FOCUS-Africa and ASPECT projects. The climate information on multi-annual time scales has been provided through an interactive online website where the climate predictions and their quality can be accessed. In addition, co-designed multi-annual bulletins summarise the predictions in an accessible language and show maps of the most relevant variables and periods. Using these documents during in-person meetings helped involve participants, facilitate discussion, and concretise feedback. Co-production is an ongoing process of improving and tailoring climate information for its usability in decision-making processes.

How to cite: Delgado-Torres, C., Octenjak, S., Marcos, R., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Donat, M. G., Milders, N., Pérez-Zanón, N., Soret, A., Terrado, M., Torralba, V., and Bojovic, D.: Co-production of multi-annual climate services to support food and wine production resilience, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-62, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-62, 2024.

12:45–13:00
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EMS2024-1026
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Onsite presentation
Esteban Rodríguez-Guisado, Francisco Javier Pérez Pérez, Marta Domínguez Alonso, Inmaculada Abia-Llera, Eroteida Sánchez-García, Ignacio Villarino Barrera, David Nafría García, and Candelas Peral García

Current context of climate change is impacting many sector’s activities: rising temperatures or the increased frequency of extreme events is affecting water or energy demands, or the way and schedule for crop growing. Climate services based on seasonal forecasts can provide a useful tool helping to adapt current practiques to a new scenario.

However, and with the exception of certain “windows of opportunity”, skill of seasonal forecasts is in general limited within mid-latitudes, so the development of a service needs a careful selection of the sources of information, postprocessing and calibration. Here, we present two examples of services for water and agriculture sector making use of seasonal forecasts, both co-developed with users:

The first one has been developed jointly with water authorities in Spain, providing probabilistic forecasts of both high resolution precipitation and inflow for the majority of Spanish reservoirs during the 5 month period spanning from November to March.

The service makes use of different sources of information, including different runs from ECMWF-SEAS5 and empirical forecasts based on snow accumulation. The close relationship between accumulated winter precipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation over Iberia is used to calibrate and weight the ensemble based on a “Best NAO” hybrid forecast, improving the skill. Additionally, a downscaling methodology combining analogs and regression is applied, providing improved skill over a wider area.

The information is then feeded in a web visor available through AEMET web, developed jointly with users. Every year, information for the upcoming winter and new version of the web application is presented, and discussion on results, usability and possible improvements take place, keeping the service updated to user needs.

The second one provides crop yield forecasts for raind fed winter cereals (barley and wheat) over Castille and Leon. A vegetal model is run for every grid point every day of the season using observations. A particular day of the season, the model is coupled using medium range forecasts and then using both an ensemble based on climatology and ECMWF-SEAS5 downscaled forecasts, and results are compared. A set of synthetic observations, coupling vegetal model to ERA5, is produced and validated, in order to evaluate the performance. Information is then provided to users through the stakeholders in the region.

How to cite: Rodríguez-Guisado, E., Pérez Pérez, F. J., Domínguez Alonso, M., Abia-Llera, I., Sánchez-García, E., Villarino Barrera, I., Nafría García, D., and Peral García, C.: Climate Services for hidrology and agriculture: co-design and operation of services based on seasonal forecasting, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-1026, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-1026, 2024.

Posters: Tue, 3 Sep, 18:00–19:30

Display time: Mon, 2 Sep 08:30–Tue, 3 Sep 19:30
Chairpersons: Carlo Buontempo, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Omar Bellprat
EMS2024-1091
Tomas Halenka

The overal project falls under "Earth and related environmental sciences" and is designed to be multidisciplinary. One of the main field is "Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology" due to the predominance of research related to atmospheric, meteorological and climatic hazards (WP1 and WP2) and the interaction of the Earth's surface spheres with the atmosphere (WP3) or the study of atmospheric pollution by dust particles (WP5). Given the wide range of natural and anthropogenic geohazards that are the subject of research in this project, other geoscience and environmental specialisations as well as more applied fields such as engineering and computer science are also among the sub-disciplines. 

The basic theme of the WP2 is projection (and prediction) of climate change and research on its impact on risk phenomena, with analysis of their causes and assessment of their consequences in selected areas of human activity. This will be achieved primarily through the analysis of available model simulation data, supplemented by our own modelling activities, especially through the analysis of extreme characteristics and indices, which are easier to interpret in the research of the impacts in follow-up studies of selected areas.

The main directions of the project are:

  • Preparation and analysis of available model data and models adaptation and development
  • Analysis of output uncertainties and their impact on projections of climate change and risk events
  • Construction of custom climate change and risk scenarios for the selected area
  • Analysis of climate prediction options using currently available resources
  • Climate change projections for selected large cities with emphasis on risk phenomena
  • Assessment of the consequences of climate change and risk phenomena in selected sectors (health, agriculture, forestry, socio-economic), their prevention and warning
  • Benefit-risk analysis of sulphur aerosol-based geoengineering

Most of these aims are connected to other activities and projects, like Horizon Europe project FOCI, I4C, aktivity WCRP CORDEX FPS URB-RCC, local projects PERUN and SEEPIA, etc. Outputs are planned to be co-designed with affiliated CHMI for the purpose of providing climate Services in selected directions.

How to cite: Halenka, T.: Project Geohazards: New Initiative on Climate Projections and Predictions, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-1091, 2024.

EMS2024-854
Monika Lakatos, Kinga Bokros, Olivér Szentes, Beatrix Izsák, Zita Bihari, and Annamária Marton

One way for monitoring climate change is to compute and analyse the different extreme climate indices. At the Climate Research Department of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, we have implemented climate stripes, several warm climate indices and some of the cold indices for 24 municipalities and for the country as a whole from the beginning of the last century. Homogenised (MASHv3.03 software) daily data were used to derive the yearly climate indices values. We used interpolated data (MISHv1.03 software) for getting the countrywide averages. The trend line fitted to the annual data indicates the slope of change, its magnitude and significance with 90% confidence is depected too on the graphs. By clicking on the figures, the municipal graphs can be displayed and downloaded freely from the webpage of HungaroMet: https://www.met.hu/eghajlat/eghajlatvaltozas/megfigyelt_hazai_valtozasok/
An obvious effect of climate change in our region is the increase in the frequency of extremes associated with high temperatures, the persistence and intensity of heat waves. Graphs of very hot days (Tmax ≥ 35 °C) and hot days (Tmax ≥ 30 °C) illustrate the recent changes for the county seats.  The current practice of issuing heat alerts in Hungary is that National Centre for Public Health issues an alert following a warning published by the Hungarian Meteorological Service. Time series showing the number of days per year corresponding the conditions for the different heat alert levels (level I: Ta ≥ 25 °C, level II: Ta ≥ 25 °C for at least 3 consecutive days, level III: Ta ≥ 27 °C for at least 3 consecutive days) are also available for download. The "climate mosaic" not only shows the heat and heatwave trends on an annual basis, but also illustrates the heat periods in a matrix-like arrangement, their frequency and duration can be tracked on that.
Regarding the cold climate indices, the number of frost days (daily minimum temperature ≤ 0 °C), number of days with a minimum daily temperature ≤ -10 °C, number of winter days with daily maximum temperature ≤ 0 °C day, longest frost period (maximum length of consecutive frost day), number of cold days with daily minimum temperature ≤ -5 °C, annual sum of heating degree-days, days according to Extreme Cold Warning Level I-II-II (minimum daily temperature < -15 °C,  -20 °C and -25 °C) are visualized.
We hope that this information is supporting the development of municipal climate change strategies and action plans.

Acknowledgements:
The research presented was carried out within the framework of the Széchenyi Plan Plus program with the support RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00014 Climate Change Multidisciplinary National Laboratory project.

How to cite: Lakatos, M., Bokros, K., Szentes, O., Izsák, B., Bihari, Z., and Marton, A.: Climate monitoring information on the webpage of HungaroMet to raise awareness on climate change and support the decision-making, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-854, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-854, 2024.

EMS2024-733
Paula Checchia, Ángel G. Muñoz, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Santiago Ramirez, and Marta Terrado

Society is experiencing the increasingly frequent and severe impacts of climate change and natural climate variability, and needs to prepare. In response to that, European (and non-European) research institutions, private companies, policymakers, funding bodies, and other stakeholders, are becoming more and more concerned about the importance of having quality climate information for supporting decision-making. In this sense, climate services are a key element for adaptation to and mitigation of anthropogenic climate change.

Information relevant in the climate services field includes both quantitative data (e.g. measurements of climate variables, uncertainty, etc.) and qualitative data (e.g. stakeholders’ contexts, topics of interest, etc.). Qualitative data refers to non-numerical, descriptive data that captures information, characteristics, or attributes of a phenomenon, allowing for a deeper understanding of certain topics. The increased volume of available qualitative data, together with the advances in computational social sciences in the latest years, have revolutionized the way society is studied. Computational methods can assist in uncovering, for example, themes, patterns, insights, and relationships.

This poster presents the application of a computational approach for the systematic identification, collection, storage, and analysis of social sciences data and information, in this case related to the field of climate services. The objective is to understand the current landscape of climate services in Europe, and the stakeholders involved, in order to build an equitable community encompassing providers and users of climate services.

Various sources of information related to the provision of climate information and services exist. In this use case, we have focused on examining the EU-funded projects (number of projects, funding programmes and topics, participating institutions, etc.) related to climate services and climate information that are listed in CORDIS (the European Commission's platform on the results of projects funded by the EU's Research and Innovation framework programs).

In addition to the methodology used, some preliminary results obtained from the analyses are shown, illustrating the evolution in the number of these projects, which has recently been growing, as well as the institutions involved by country and type of organization. We believe that these results can be a good indicator of the importance being given in Europe to climate services as tools to support communities, organizations, and institutions in adapting to climate change and variability.

This is valuable information for the Climateurope2 project (which aims to support the community of climate services and develop recommendations for standardizing them) as it allows the identification of potential already existing projects and institutions that Climateurope2 could engage with. It also indicates where more emphasis needs to be placed on communicating the importance of climate services for decision-making.

How to cite: Checchia, P., Muñoz, Á. G., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Ramirez, S., and Terrado, M.: A methodology for the systematic identification, collection, storage, and analysis of qualitative data: a use case of the European climate services landscape., EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-733, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-733, 2024.

EMS2024-329
Andreas Hoy, Marianna Adinolfi, Riccardo Biondi, and Massimo Milelli

The AGORA project supports climate-resilient communities in Europe by engaging various stakeholders, including citizens, policymakers, experts, and marginalized groups. It aims to accelerate societal transformation by sharing innovative climate adaptation solutions, recognizing the need for diverse approaches. Through pilot regions in Italy, Sweden, Germany, and Spain, AGORA facilitates co-production activities to design and implement context-specific adaptation strategies. Other regions can participate as followers, learning from and replicating AGORA's actions. The project aims to empower citizens and promote proactive decision-making. A key component is the Digital AGORA, an online platform facilitating citizen engagement and decision-making processes. It includes digital academies focusing on climate data access, climate risk monitoring, and combating climate disinformation, with the goal of enhancing adaptation efforts through education and peer networking. Capacity-building events ensure user-centred design and address existing barriers to climate data utilization, as demonstrated through collaborative efforts showcased at the 2023 ECCA and SISC conferences.

This contribution presents three comprehensive inventories that highlight a variety of international (European-focused) and national tools encompassing climate, climate risk, and climate adaptation themes. These inventories compile web-based resources such as tools, atlases, portals, and platforms, which have seen a notable increase in publication in recent years. They serve as valuable repositories capable of disseminating climate data, derived climate insights, and tailored climate services to a diverse audience. The selection process involved thorough screenings of scientific literature, web resources, and expert consultations. The tools are systematically evaluated and compared through a detailed spreadsheet analysis, which examines their content, temporal and spatial relevance, language, style, functionalities, and included variables. Additionally, the spreadsheet provides direct links to the tools, tutorials, data sources, metadata, methodologies, and associated scientific publications, ensuring accessibility and transparency for users.

A digital academy guides users by leveraging the developed inventories to provide accessible climate resources. This fosters transparency and empowers a diverse set of stakeholders. The academy features eight modular learning pathways tailored to basic, intermediate, and advanced skill levels. Each module integrates general topical knowledge, links to relevant tools, and utilizes engaging elements like quizzes, questionnaires, videos, and tutorials. This innovative digital academy seamlessly integrates with the broader Digital AGORA platform.

How to cite: Hoy, A., Adinolfi, M., Biondi, R., and Milelli, M.: Enhancing climate resilience in the AGORA project: A digital academy for improved access and use of climate, risk and adaptation information, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-329, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-329, 2024.

EMS2024-234
Albert Aparicio Garcia, Anna Rius, Laura Barbería, Anna Miró, Juan Carlos Peña, and Adrián Ruiz

In recent years there has been an increase in the interest and number of users demanding meteorological data. From individuals to private companies and public administrations, the Climate Services Team (CST) of the Meteorological Service of Catalonia is responsible for addressing this surge in data requests. Among these inquiries, weather-related insurance claims have been particularly prominent, monopolizing a significant portion of the team’s operational time in preparing these on-demand reports and lengthening the response time. 

A web application tool has been developed to streamline the process of weather report generation. This application integrates a wide range of data into a user-friendly interface, including derived remote-sensing products (radar rainfall estimation and hail probability) and data retrieved from automatic and manual weather stations. Consolidating all this information in a single interface simplifies the process of determining which data are the most representative for a given municipality and date. Meteorological certificates can also be generated from the same application and are then freely available on the SMC website. 

Furthermore, an algorithm that combines daily wind gust, rainfall rate and accumulated precipitation with population data has been formulated. This algorithm identifies the municipalities from which it is most likely to receive weather insurance-related requests in the upcoming days. This proactive approach allows the CST to anticipate the influx of requests and prepare all potential weather data certificates that may be requested for each locality well in advance, using the previously mentioned application tool, even before affected individuals request them. 

This new operational workflow has not only significantly reduced response time but also enhanced the representativeness of the data provided for each municipality and weather event. It has also improved the accessibility for end-users, who need only to choose their locality from the SMC website and all available weather data certificates can be downloaded for free. 

How to cite: Aparicio Garcia, A., Rius, A., Barbería, L., Miró, A., Peña, J. C., and Ruiz, A.: Enhancing meteorological report access and response time: How the Meteorological Service of Catalonia addresses the rise in weather-related claims, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-234, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-234, 2024.

EMS2024-242
Marc Prohom, Jordi Cunillera, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Sergio Vicente-Serrano, Xabier Esteban-Alonso, Eva Garcia-Balaguer, and Juan Terrádez

Mountains, custodians of unique biodiversity, are undergoing remarkable transformations at an unprecedented pace due to anthropogenic climate change. The Pyrenees are deeply affected by this phenomenon, threatening ecosystem services, ranging from water sources and natural habitats to forest resources.

Thanks to cross-border cooperation, 46 entities from Spain, France, and Andorra have joined together in a new LIFE – SIP PYRENEES4CLIMA project with the objective of strengthening resilience in the Pyrenees through the implementation of measures to adapt to climate change. This 7.5-year project (October 2023- April 2031), with a total budget of almost €20 million, marks the starting point for the implementation of the Pyrenean Climate Change Strategy (EPiCC), the first European cross-border climate change strategy. It will accelerate climate policies in the region and reinforce governance based on territorial climate cooperation.

The project is based on five fundamental pillars: (1) Understanding climate impacts, (2) Improving the resilience of natural spaces, (3) Adapting the mountain economy, (4) Safeguarding the population and territory from natural-climate risks and resource deterioration, and (5) Promoting an innovative system of climate governance involving citizens, socio-economic sectors, the scientific community, and political decision-makers.

Working Group 1 (Climate) is composed of five beneficiary partners and four associated partners, led by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia and Météo France. The main objective of this group is to provide high-quality and reliable information and data to reduce the inherent uncertainty of the spatial and temporal variability of climate (and climate change), both observed and projected, in the Pyrenees. To achieve this objective, several tasks have been planned and described in depth:

  • Update and expand the availability of observed climate data in the Pyrenees.
  • Generation of high-resolution climate projections in the Pyrenees for atmospheric and snow variables.
  • Development of climate change indices for sector-specific applications based on both observations and climate projections for the Pyrenees.
  • Development of a climate services platform providing real-time information on climate risks: droughts and heatwaves.

How to cite: Prohom, M., Cunillera, J., Soubeyroux, J.-M., Vicente-Serrano, S., Esteban-Alonso, X., Garcia-Balaguer, E., and Terrádez, J.: PYRENEES4CLIMA: A New Project to Provide More Reliable Climate Information for the Pyrenees, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-242, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-242, 2024.

EMS2024-692
Jon Xavier Olano Pozo, Anna Boqué-Ciurana, and Òscar Saladié Borraz

Climate change impacts every aspect of human and ecological systems, yet its effects on cultural outdoor activities remain underexplored, an oversight this project aims to start correcting. Specifically, this research focuses on the Catalan tradition of "Castellers," which involves constructing human towers, a deeply rooted cultural practice in some Catalan regions symbolising community strength and cooperation. Recognizing the potential vulnerability of this tradition to changing climate conditions, this study develops a tailored analytical framework to assess these impacts, building upon the co-creation of climate service methodology by local agents outlined in Font et al. (2021).

To capture the specific impacts of climate change on the "castellers," we conducted workshops with different "colles" (the groups that build the towers) to adapt the existing methodology better to fit the unique needs of this cultural practice. These collaborations have led to the creation of a specific indicator designed to measure the sensitivity of the "castellers" to environmental changes.

A key component of our research methodology involved measuring Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) during tower-building exhibitions, among the general description based on station and reanalysis data. Instruments were set up in the “places” where these events typically take place to collect real-time environmental data, such as temperature, humidity, and wind speed, during the performances. This approach allowed for the accurate capturing of the climatic conditions faced by participants during their performances, providing a robust dataset for analysing the potential impacts of climate variability on this activity.

The initial findings from this data collection indicate that even slight changes in ECVs can influence the performance and safety conditions of the "castellers." With these insights, the project seeks to equip organizers, participants, local government bodies in their capacity as risk managers, and the audience with valuable information to make informed decisions that help mitigate risks and ensure the sustainability of this intangible cultural heritage. This study highlights the vulnerability of cultural practices to climate change and sets a precedent for similar research into other areas of intangible heritage.

 

How to cite: Olano Pozo, J. X., Boqué-Ciurana, A., and Saladié Borraz, Ò.: Actionable Climate Information to take decisions: Firts insights of the co-created climate indices for cultural outdoor activities in Catalonia, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-692, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-692, 2024.

EMS2024-57
Milica Tosic, Irida Lazic, Lazar Filipovic, Darko Savic, and Vladimir Djurdjevic

Online platform Digital climate atlas of Serbia (https://atlas-klime.eko.gov.rs) has been established under the Advancing medium and long-term adaptation planning in the Republic of Serbia. This web platform provides free access to publicly available climate datasets over the country, both observational and projected climate conditions for the future as well as at the sub-national and city/local level. Digital Climate Atlas of Serbia is based on the data provided by CORDEX, Copernicus Climate Change Service and geospatial information system of the Republic of Serbia. Past and future data are gridded data and defined on the same spatial resolution grid of 0.11 degree. For the past condition the EOBS dataset was used, covering the period from 1951 to 2020. For the future projections data that was used is results from eight regional climate models from EURO-CORDEX database covering the period from 1971 to 2100. We selected two climate scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 including historical part of model runs. Model outputs were bias-adjusted in order to minimize their error in relation to observed conditions in the past and then they were processed further. Available data are classified into two major groups. The first group includes the essential climate variables (ECVs), minimum, maximum and mean daily temperature and daily precipitation. The second one consists of 22 climate indices derived from ECVs, including some that are selected as a support for high-impact extreme events analysis. Both ECVs and calculated indices can be interactively displayed for different time-slices as maps of variable values and maps that represent changes compared to selected reference time periods. The atlas offers interactive display of relevant time series, enabling users to visualize data dynamically. Users can download any plot displayed on the atlas in digital picture format or as a dataset for further research. Spatial plots are available for download in NetCDF format to share array-oriented scientific data, while time series can be obtained in CSV format. Users can choose spatial levels on which the time series data are aggregated, such as national, regional and the level of municipalities, as well as single grid point time series. Atlas provides time series with daily, monthly, seasonal and annual time resolution.  The main idea behind the atlas development was to provide national climate service and free access to relevant data over Serbia that serve as the basis for all climate-related initiatives and can be used to support decision and policy making and vulnerability assessments. 

 

Acknowledgment: Digital Climate Atlas of Serbia has been developed in cooperation with the Faculty of Physics, Belgrade University and Neopix, under the project “Advancing medium and long-term adaptation planning in the Republic of Serbia” supported by the Green Climate Fund.

How to cite: Tosic, M., Lazic, I., Filipovic, L., Savic, D., and Djurdjevic, V.: Supporting mitigation and adaptation to climate change in Serbia through national climate service , EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-57, 2024.

EMS2024-266
Alba de la Vara, William Cabos, and Alba Matamoros

The Mediterranean region is considered a climate change hotspot because it provides an amplified warm climate signal and is highly favorable to the development of extreme weather events. In the coming decades, climate models project an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of these events. These factors make Mediterranean coasts densely populated, such as the Spanish eastern coast, prone to suffer negative socioeconomic impacts. In this respect, blue economy, defined as those economic activities related to seas and oceans, which represent a key source of growth, incomes and employment in the region, is very exposed to climate conditions, with potential concomitant economic losses. Thus, the implementation of adaptation measures to ensure the sustainable development of the blue economy is of vital importance in the current context of climate change. Adaptation strategies must be built upon scientific knowledge regarding the future climate signal which allows for effective policies and practices by public administrations and entities that operate in implied sectors.  

In particular, aquaculture, fisheries and coastal tourism are relevant sectors of the blue economy for their contribution to social and economic development on the Spanish Mediterranean coast. The ECOAZUL-MED project offers, for the first time, a public climate service tool which provides relevant climate data for the management of the aquaculture, fishing and coastal tourism in the Spanish Mediterranean coast for the next 40 years. Data offered comes from the analysis of an ensemble of regional, air-sea coupled simulations from the Med-CORDEX initiative and is available for two emission scenarios. The tool provides oceanic and atmospheric information, including extremes with the potential to cause large negative socio-economic impacts (e.g., heat waves, heavy precipitation). Also, the tool is accompanied by documentation created over the project’s life e.g., reports on socio-economic impacts of climate change on the sectors, policy recommendations for the different sectors, among others. Our tool will support companies, public administration and other agents in decision-making processes regarding adaptation to climate conditions. The tool has been created using a comprehensive approach which combines quantitative research e.g., climate data analysis, and qualitative research, through which a wide range of stakeholders have been involved in different participatory activities since the beginning of the project. This co-creative, user-driven approach is key to ensure that the tool is usable and is adapted to the expectations of potential end users. In this work we will present the ECOAZUL-MED project and related climate service tool, and will provide details about the methodology followed for its creation. Practical examples of how the tool could be used to support decision or policy making will be given. 

How to cite: de la Vara, A., Cabos, W., and Matamoros, A.: ECOAZUL-MED climate service tool: supporting aquaculture, fisheries and coastal tourism in the Spanish Mediterranean coasts , EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-266, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-266, 2024.

EMS2024-523
Anna Boqué-Ciurana, Òscar Saladié, Carla Garcia-Lozano, Gabriel Borràs, Carolina Martí, Maria Trinitat Rovira Soto, Enric Aguilar, Queralt Plana Puig, and Ivan Cester

This study investigates climate challenges at national level focusing mainly in two prominent coastal destinations, Costa Daurada and Terres de l'Ebre, situated in Catalonia (northeastern Spain), within the southeastern Mediterranean region. With the urgency to bolster societal resilience to climate hazards and manage risks in these Mediterranean locales, adapting tourist destinations to climate change and mitigating associated risks demand a comprehensive understanding of behavioral change factors affecting businesses, citizens, tourists, and administration.

Central to the climate adaptation strategy for the tourism sector is access to high-quality Climate Services tailored to end-users' needs. These services function as decision-making tools, offer incentives for social benefits, and communicate effectively, as highlighted by Scott et al. (2011). The Horizon2020 Impetus project, commenced in October 2021, aligns with the EU's 2050 climate goals, translating commitments into actionable steps for community and planetary protection.

Focusing on achieving climate-resilient tourism and implementing the Catalan Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (ESCACC30) in the tourism sector, the project seeks a fundamental behavioral shift. Recognizing the pivotal role of Behavioral Change, the strategy adopts a problem-solving approach based on Michie et al.'s (2013) taxonomy, meticulously examining factors impacting behavioral change, devising strategies to overcome challenges, and enhancing change facilitators, while also incorporating measures to prevent setbacks and address climate change consequences.

Inspired by Font et al.'s (2021) methodology, the co-creation process involved public and private stakeholders from Costa Daurada and Terres de l'Ebre actively participating in workshops. These workshops focused on themes such as weather, climate change, tourism, energy, water, and the perception of the beach-dune system. Through this collaborative effort, stakeholders developed indicators shedding light on the climatic potential for various tourism modalities, identifying physical impacts of climate change affecting the attractiveness and vulnerability of the tourist destinations.

Proposed measures related to water and energy were classified based on priority and vulnerability. Additionally, the repeat photography method was employed to gather data on citizens' awareness of temporal changes in the beach-dune system within the study area. This approach also provided insights into their perceptions regarding the roles and landscape of the beaches and dunes, ultimately contributing to the development of climate co-created indicators essential for effective climate adaptation in these Mediterranean coastal destinations.

How to cite: Boqué-Ciurana, A., Saladié, Ò., Garcia-Lozano, C., Borràs, G., Martí, C., Rovira Soto, M. T., Aguilar, E., Plana Puig, Q., and Cester, I.: Driving Change: User Engagement and Governance in Climate Adaptation for Coastal Destinations, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-523, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-523, 2024.