Analysis of zonal and meridional differences in projected changes of extreme temperature within Europe using CMIP6 simulation data under different scenarios

The Interactive Atlas of the IPCC AR6 Working Group 1 is used to analyse the geographical differences of climate projections within Europe. For this purpose, the multi-model and multi-scenario ensemble is evaluated from global climate model simulations (available via the CMIP6, i.e. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 of the World Climate Research Programme) including four different SSP-RCP scenario pairs (i.e. from immediate rapid mitigation and effective adaptation, SSP1-RCP2.6, to no mitigation with highly challenging adaptation, SSP5-RCP8.5). The study provides key information so the regional and national adaptation strategies for different socio-economic sectors can be built and/or updated accordingly.

This study focuses on temperatures extremes, e.g. the monthly frequency of heat days with daily maximum temperature above 35 °C. The target periods cover two decades on the medium- and long-term, i.e. mid-century (2041-2060) and late-century (2081-2100), respectively, and the reference period defined as the last two decades of the historical simulation period (1995-2014). Several zonal and meridional segments were defined over Europe, along which the projected changes are analysed with a special focus on sea cover, continental, and topography effects. Furthermore, the consequences of different scenarios are also compared. The results clearly show that greater radiative forcing change implies more severe health effects via the more frequent heat stress events. However, substantial differences can also be identified from south to north as well, as from west to east.

Acknowledgements: Research leading to this study has been supported by the European Climate Fund (G-2309-66801), the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Fund (under grants PD-138023 and K-129162), and the National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change (RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00014).