This session welcomes presentations related to various topics related to this frame:
• early instrumental meteorological measurements, their history and use for the long-term series
• documentary evidence and its features (advantages, disadvantages limits)
• natural climate proxies and its features (advantages, disadvantages, limits)
• methodological improvements and analysis of climate reconstruction approaches both from documentary evidence and natural climatic proxies
• results of climate reconstructions over different regions based on various climatic sources
• hydrological and meteorological extremes (e.g. floods, hurricanes, windstorms, tornadoes, hailstorms, frosts) and their human impacts in relation to climate variability beyond the instrumental period.
• climate modelling of the last 2K and comparison of model outputs with reconstructed/observed climatological data
• past impacts of climate variability on natural processes and human society
• past and recent perception of the climate and its variability
• history of meteorology and meteorological and climatological knowledge
• discussion of natural and anthropogenic forcings as well as recent warming at global, regional and local scales in a long-term context.
Over the past decade, significant progress has been made in elucidating the historical climate of the southwestern region of the Iberian Peninsula, with a particular focus on the Spanish region of Extremadura. This communication provides a comprehensive review of these advancements.
Firstly, a notable body of research has investigated catastrophic flooding events in the Guadiana River basin spanning the last five centuries [1]. Detailed studies have been conducted on the devastating flood that occurred in December 1876 in Badajoz, as well as in other areas within the Guadiana River basin [2-3].
Furthermore, substantial efforts have been dedicated to data recovery initiatives. Specifically, more than 0.8 million meteorological readings have been retrieved from Extremadura [4], alongside other early meteorological data of significance from Almada (Portugal) [5] and San Fernando (Spain) [6].
Additionally, non-instrumental documentary sources have been leveraged to examine the historical climate of Extremadura. This includes an analysis of correspondence between the Duke of Feria [7] and preserved documents regarding the observance of rain prayer rituals [8], with detailed insights into the findings presented.
[1] N. Bravo-Paredes et al. (2021) Science of the Total Environment 797, 149141, doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149141
[2] J. González-Cao et al. (2021) Journal of Hydrology 599, 126292, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126292
[3] J. González-Cao et al. (2022) Journal of Hydrology 610, 127883, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127883
[4] J.M. Vaquero et al. (2022) Geoscience Data Journal 9, 207-220, doi: 10.1002/gdj3.131
[5] N. Bravo-Paredes et al. (2023) Climate 11, 193, doi: 10.3390/cli11090193
[6] N. Bravo-Paredes et al. (2023) Climate of the Past 19, 1397–1408, doi: 10.5194/cp-19-1397-2023
[7] M.I. Fernández-Fernández et al. (2014) Climatic Change 126, 107–118, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1201-5
[8] N. Bravo-Paredes et al. (2020) Atmosphere 11(3), 282, doi: 10.3390/atmos11030282
How to cite: Vaquero, J. M. and Gallego, M. C.: Recent Advances in Understanding the Historical Climate of Extremadura and the Southwest of Iberia: A Review, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-611, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-611, 2024.
Floods are one of the main natural disasters that affect environment and ecosystems, and an increasing number of evidences highlights how climate change and urbanization are contributing to exacerbate the risk related to their occurrences. A parallel and coupled investigation of meteo-hydrological causes and of impacts on societies is therefore of primary importance for allowing a reliable analysis of flood events and improving current emergency management techniques. Within this framework, flood modelling assumes a key role in developing an accurate knowledge of rain-related impacts, especially in the urban fabric. Recent advances in flood modelling have enabled hyper-resolution street-level studies, offering significant potential for flood reconstruction, nowcasting, and forecasting. However, the calibration of flood models faces challenges due, among others, to limited availability of flood-related measurement, particularly in ungauged basins or during extreme events. While low-complexity and low-resolution inundation models may suffice to be calibrated on estimated flow discharges, space-time variability of rainfall patterns and hydrodynamic information, namely flood depths and flow velocities, become crucial for accurate simulations in urban areas. To address this issue, there is a growing need for accurate information, prompting research into alternative documentary sources concerning the impact of past floods and solutions for dataset merging. Moving from a consolidated catalogue of historical damaging hydrogeological events (ASICal), this work explores the potential of a composite meteorological and impact-based data collection for pilot case studies in Calabria region (southern Italy). Information gathered from different data sources and characterized by different levels of detail, from pixel (radar/satellite) scale up to the street level, have been systematically retrieved and organized. In our study we review and highlight (i) the abilities of weather radar in characterizing rainfall dynamics in time and space, and (ii) how photos and video posted on social media represent valuable sources for quantitative information offering insights up to the house number level, despite the limitation of the need for a visual inspection and interpretation of their contents. Results are supportive of the opportunities arising from the proposed approach in the collection of impact data from multiple sources and different levels of detail, which represents a key task for the improvement of the emergent flood related studies based on high-resolution hydrodynamics and hydrological approaches to rainfall classification and modelling.
How to cite: Lombardo, M., Totaro, V., Chiaravalloti, F., and Petrucci, O.: A systematic approach for flood-impact data retrieval in urban floods modelling, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-571, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-571, 2024.
The reconstruction of floods in Poland in the last millennium (11th–20th centuries) was evaluated based on more than 1,300 weather notes and sources describing floods. After assessing the quality of each source, the most reliable sources were used for the investigation of flood occurrences. The most commonly used methods for the classification of flood intensity in Europe (Barriendos and Coeur 2004; Brázdil et al. 2006) have been used. The genesis of floods was estimated based on the method presented by Lambor (1954). The results demonstrated that more than 1,600 floods occurred in Poland in the last millennium. The highest number of floods occurred in the 18th (356) and 16th (345) centuries, while the lowest occurred in the 19th (187) and 11th–15th (210) centuries. Assessment of flood trend analysis based on the Mann–Kendall test showed that from 1301 to 2000 there was an increasing trend in the frequency of floods. Analysing the spatial diversity of floods in Poland in the study period indicated that the highest number of floods occurred in the Oder River basin. Also, the number of floods in the Silesia and Baltic Coast regions was significantly more than in the other four analysed regions. The estimation of the intensity of floods demonstrated that most of the floods belong to the “above-average, or supra-regional flood” and the “extraordinary” categories according to Brázdil et al. (2006) and Barriendos and Coeur (2004) classifications, respectively. The evaluation of the main genesis of floods indicated that rain and its sub-types (torrential, frontal, long-lasting, territorially widespread) were the main cause of floods in Poland in the 11th–20th centuries. Studying floods in Poland before the 21st century will improve our understanding of historical hydrology in Europe.
The work was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland, project No. 2020/37/B/ST10/00710.
References:
Barriendos, M., Coeur, D, 2004: Flood data reconstruction in historical times from non-instrumental sources in Spain and France. Systematic, Palaeoflood and Historical Data for the Improvement of Flood Risk Estimation. Methodological Guidelines, edited by: Benito, G. and Thorndycraft, VR, Centro de Ciencias Medioambientales, Madrid, Spain, pp. 29–42.
Brázdil, R., Kundzewicz, Z. W., & Benito, G., 2006: Historical hydrology for studying flood risk in Europe. Hydrological sciences journal, 51(5), 739–764. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.51.5.739.
Lambor, J., 1954: Klasyfikacja typów powodzi i ich przewidywanie. Gospodarka Wodna, 4, 129–131
How to cite: Ghazi, B., Przybylak, R., Oliński, P., and Pospieszyńska, A.: Reconstruction of floods in Poland in the last 1000 years, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-53, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-53, 2024.
Keywords: Paleoclimate proxy, Stable Isotope, Artificial Intelligence, Lake, Speleothem
Oxygen isotope ratios are the most used geochemical proxy data in paleoclimatic and paleohydrological reconstructions, currently measured in a variety of continental carbonates, including shells, sediments and speleothems. δ18O of carbonates that form in conditions of (or close to) isotopic equilibrium does not only depend on local temperature (that controls isotopic fractionation) but also on the isotopic composition of the water from which they precipitate, which in most cases is in turn determined or controlled by the δ18O of rainfall. For this reason, understanding patterns of temporal and spatial changes in rainfall δ18O is essential for the calibration of proxies based in carbonate δ18O. Intensive monitoring programs are currently being performed in target natural systems such as lakes and karst caves. These programs however yield local isotopic records of limited duration, hampering their regional utility.
In this work, we present a Machine Learning based approach that takes into consideration not only the dependence of rainfall δ18O to latitude and altitude, but also to the main factors affecting winter precipitation variability within the Iberian Peninsula (IP), such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation. This approach is based in the available isotopic data of precipitation (IAEA Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation – GNIP) and local series.
Our model provides predicted values of δ18O with improved accuracy and uncertainty relative to current approaches. By capturing the variability of δ18O associated with diverse atmospheric conditions, it will also contribute to refine the interpretation paleoclimatic reconstructions in this region.
Contribution to PID2021-122854OB-I00 and research group 910198 of the UCM.
How to cite: Stachnik, A., Morellón, M., and Martín-Chivelet, J.: Patterns of precipitation δ18O through the Iberian Peninsula: Machine Learning dynamic modeling for climate proxy calibration, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-1086, 2024.
The European drought of 1921 is assessed in terms of its impacts on society and in terms of its physical characteristics. The development of impacts of the drought are categorized by a systematic survey of newspaper reports from five European newspapers covering the area from England to the Czech Republic and other parts of Europe. This is coupled to a reconstruction of daily temperature and precipitation based on meteorological measurements to quantify the drought severity and extent, and reanalysis data are used to identify its drivers. This analysis shows that the first impacts of the drought started to appear in early spring and lingered on until well into autumn and winter, affecting water supply and agriculture and livestock farming. The dominant impact in western Europe is on agriculture and livestock farming while in central Europe the effects of wildfires were reported on most often. The peak in the number of reports is in late summer. Preceding the first impacts was the dry autumn of 1920 and winter 1920–1921. The area hardest hit by the drought in the following spring and summer was the triangle between Brussels, Paris and Lyon, but a vast stretch of the continent, from Ireland to the Ukraine, was affected. The reported impacts on water supply and water-borne transport in that region were matched by an analysis of the hydrological situation over the Seine catchment. On average, the 1921 summer was not particularly hot, but the heatwave which was observed at the end of July saw temperatures matching those of the heatwaves in modern summers. Similar to modern droughts, an anticyclone was present roughly over the British Isles, maintaining sunny and dry weather in Europe and steering away cyclones to the north. Its persistence makes it exceptional in comparison to modern droughts.
The 1921 drought stands out as the most severe and most widespread drought in Europe since the start of the 20th century. The precipitation deficit in all seasons was large, but in none of the seasons in 1920 and 1921 was the precipitation deficit the largest on record. The severity of the 1921 drought relates to the conservative nature of drought which amplifies the lack of precipitation in autumn and winter into the following spring and summer.
How to cite: van der Schrier, G., Allan, R., Ossó, A., Sousa, P., Van de Vyver, H., Van Schaeybroeck, B., Coscarelli, R., Pasqua, A., Petrucci, O., Curley, M., Mietus, M., Filipiak, J., Štěpánek, P., Zahradníček, P., Brázdil, R., Řezníčková, L., van den Besselaar, E., Trigo, R., and Aguilar, E.: The 1921 European drought: impacts, reconstruction and drivers, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-983, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-983, 2024.
Evidences from climate reconstructions and model simulations show that climate experienced important changes during the Last Millennium (LM). These changes can be associated with external forcing factors, such as cycles of solar activity, changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, volcanic eruptions, changes in orbital parameters, or changes in the land use and land cover, or with a redistribution of energy as part of climate internal variability. Both external forcing and internal variability contributed to alter temperatures, ice extent and atmospheric dynamics, with impacts on the hydroclimate in different parts of the world. The LM was characterised by a period of higher radiative forcing during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ca. 950-1250), a period of lower radiative forcing during the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1450-1850), and a rapid increase of the radiative forcing during the industrial era.
This work analyses simulations of the LM from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3 and PMIP4); grids of reconstructed data based on tree rings from the Drought Atlases of Europe (OWDA), North America (NADA) and Asia (MADA); data assimilation-based products like the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA) and the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR); as well as individual reconstructions based on tree rings, marine and lake sediments, speleothems, ice cores and documentary information, with the main objective of analysing the hydroclimate variability from interannual to multicentennial timescales from a global perspective, how these changes impacted tropical and extratropical regions, their relation to changes in temperatures and atmospheric dynamics, and the impact of external forcing and internal variability on their occurrence.
These analyses show coordinated changes in the hydroclimate of separate regions, both in extratropical and in tropical areas. These changes can be linked in extratropical areas to alterations of extratropical modes like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and in tropical areas to alterations of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
How to cite: Roldán-Gómez, P. J., González-Rouco, J. F., Smerdon, J., and García-Pereira, F.: Impacts of external forcing and internal variability on the evolution of hydroclimate during the last millennium, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-90, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-90, 2024.
Extreme air temperatures in Toruń were analysed for the period 1871–2020. The air temperature data were collected from data of the Prussian, German and Polish (Archives of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management − National Research Institute) networks. Possible deficiencies in the monthly average data were supplemented by the method of constancy of differences based on data from the station in Bydgoszcz (correlation of air temperature data from Bydgoszcz and Toruń reaches 0.99 and is statistically significant). The data was then homogenised using AnClim software (Štěpánek, 2008). Based on quantile thermal classification criteria (Czernecki & Miętus, 2011), months, seasons and years were determined to be: extremely warm (>95.00 percentile), anomalously warm (90.01–95.00), very warm (80.01–90.00), warm (70.01–80.00), slightly warm (60.01–70.00), normal (40.01–60.00), slightly cool (30.01–40.00), cool (20.01–30.00), very cool (10.01–20.00), anomalously cold (5.00–10.00), extremely cold (<5). Temperature values for individual intervals were determined for each month, season and year separately.
In the period 1871–2020, the average annual air temperature in Toruń was 7.8 °C. In the annual cycle, the air temperature values were highest in July (18.3 °C) and lowest in January (˗2.4 °C). In the analysed period, the average annual air temperature shows a statistically significant trend of +0.1 °C per decade. For more detailed analyses, the research period was divided into fifty-year sub-periods. For the subperiod 1871–1920, there were no years classified as very, anomalously or extremely warm. The period 1921–70 was characterised by almost 50% frequency of years below the 40.00 percentile (<7.56 °C). In the last fifty years of the study period (1971–2020), there were no extremely cold years, while years classified as warm (all classes above the 60.00 percentile; >8.10 °C) have an almost 60% frequency.
The research was funded by the National Science Centre, Poland; Project No. 2020/37/B/ST10/00710.
References:
Czernecki B., Miętus M., 2011. Porównanie stosowanych klasyfikacji termicznych na przykładzie wybranych regionów Polski [Comparison of thermal classification for selected regions of Poland]. Przegląd Geofizyczny, z. 3–4, 201–227.
Štěpánek, P., 2008. AnClim - software for time series analysis: Dept. of Geography, Fac. of Natural Sciences, MU, Brno. 1.47 MB. http://www.climahom.eu/AnClim.html.
How to cite: Pospieszynska, A. and Przybylak, R.: Extreme air temperature in Toruń (Poland), 1871–2020, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-336, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-336, 2024.
For Switzerland, high-resolution gridded data of daily mean temperature and daily precipitation sums have recently been developed based on a large amount of early instrumental data for a period from 1763 to 1960. These temperature and precipitation fields were reconstructed with the analogue resampling method and subsequently improved using data assimilation for the temperature fields and bias correction for the precipitation fields. This new data set together with present-day meteorological fields since 1961 allows us to study a wide range of historical extreme weather events in Switzerland and their impacts on past societies. However, to study the impact of historical weather events in more detail, other variables are often needed, such as sunshine duration, wind speed, and humidity, but also minimum and maximum temperature.
Here, we present the daily gridded Swiss reconstruction of daily temperature and precipitation, as well as the extension of the Swiss reconstruction to more variables, focusing mainly on sunshine duration, relative humidity, and wind speed. These additional reconstructions are based as well on the analogue resampling method, however, with a partly different reference period for the analogue pool compared to the temperature and precipitation reconstructions, and with a different data source for the resampled field. The extended Swiss gridded reconstructions make it possible to perform impact studies of historical weather and climate events, for example through agricultural modelling and calculating impact-based indices.
Furthermore, we explore the potential of the extended reconstructions by evaluating historical and contemporary wildfire events in Switzerland. Wildfires are analysed using commonly used fire weather indices, such as the Canadian Fire Weather Index. We compare these indices with historical documents reporting on the fire events in Switzerland and, where possible, with the synoptic conditions over Switzerland and Europe leading up to the event.
How to cite: Noemi, I. and Stefan, B.: A gridded data set to study historical climate impacts in Switzerland since 1763, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-891, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-891, 2024.
Homogenization in climate research means the removal of non-climatic changes. This presentation describes the homogenization of the early instrumental dataset (HCLIM; https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.940724) of monthly mean temperature time series. New homogenization algorithm validation methodology is assessed here on early instrumental data, and its use to assess the skill of three different algorithms, when applied to early instrumental data.This study addresses the challenge of homogenizing early instrumental meteorological observations spanning 365 years to accurately reconstruct historical climate change. Manual homogenization methods are time-consuming and prone to errors, necessitating an exploration of automated alternatives. We assess three current automatic homogenization algorithms—CLIMATOL, PHA, and BART—utilizing the global early instrumental dataset HCLIM, covering discontinuous monthly temperature records from 1658 to 2021, with record lengths varying from 15 to 260 years. Our analysis reveals significant differences in break frequency among algorithms, with BART detecting eight times more breaks than CLIMATOL and PHA. The ratio of homogeneous series also varies notably: PHA at 85%, CLIMATOL at 70%, and BART at 31%. Additionally, we evaluate algorithm performance by comparing detected records with collocated reference records from the 20CRv3 reanalysis product. Moreover, we identify certain data points unsuitable for homogenization due to missing neighbouring stations or apparent outliers, while highlighting their potential for identifying extreme climatic events. This research underscores the importance of rigorous assessment and validation of automated homogenization methods in historical meteorological records analysis. Furthermore, we find that both homogenization and the use of 20CRv3 are indispensable for refining results. By comparing the homogenized datasets with a reanalysis dataset, the results reveal that some data points necessitate homogenization, while others do not require this correction based on the reanalysis alone. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that utilizing three homogenization tools in conjunction with the reanalysis dataset yields optimal results for the early instrumental dataset Hclim.
How to cite: Lundstad, E.: Towards automated and global homogenization procedures for early instrumental temperature data., EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-346, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-346, 2024.
The Mediterranean basin, home to over 510 million people and characterized by unique geography, a rich cultural landscape, and economies heavily dependent on tourism, has emerged as the critical focal point for climate change impacts.. In fact, it experienced an unprecedented heatwave in the warm season of 2022. With a temperature anomaly of +3.6°C, it was the most severe event recorded in the last millennium. In this study, we analyzed the 2022 extreme warm season by placing it within three distinct frameworks: instrumental data, millennial-length historical context, and future climate projections. Our analysis reveals that climate change has significantly increased the frequency of such extreme events, historically occurring once in 10,000 years, to now potentially as often as every 7 to 75 years depending on future climate scenarios.
We also compared projections from EURO-CORDEX models, which are recognized for their superior spatial resolution and enhanced ability to accurately represent regional climate dynamics and trends, againts CMIP6 outputs. A key finding is the significant discrepancy in return period projections under the SSP2-4.5 scenario: CMIP6 models forecast these extreme events to recur once every 7 years, whereas EURO-CORDEX predicts a frequency of once every 75 years. While the performance of CMIP6 models is broadly comparable to that of CMIP5 models (employed in EURO-CORDEX), indicating modest enhancements in modeling capabilities for extreme events, it is notable that the CMIP6 ensemble predicts more pronounced warming in the Mediterranean compared to the CMIP5 ensemble.
The rapid emergence and severity of these events underscore the urgent need for effective adaptation strategies and a reevaluation of projections to better prepare Western Mediterranean countries for future climate risks. This study aims to deepen understanding of these dynamics, offering insights that could help guide regional response efforts and support the development of policies to enhance climate resilience, emphasizing the critical role of refined, high-resolution models like EURO-CORDEX in capturing and responding to these trends.
How to cite: Tejedor, E., Benito, G., Serrano-Notivoli, R., González-Rouco, F., Esper, J., and Buntgen, U.: Anticipating the Future: The 2022 Heatwave as a Harbinger of Climate Extremes in the Mediterranean Region., EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-1013, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-1013, 2024.
Ireland has a rich heritage of long-term air temperature observations. The analysis of long-term historical instrumental records is essential to assessing extreme air temperature indices and examining modern climate warming within a historical context. This presentation highlights the methodologies for data rescue, quality control, homogenisation, and assessment of trends in extreme air temperature indices back to the 19th century.
This research assessed the frequency, duration, intensity and geographical distribution of the daily extreme air temperature indices recommended by the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) based on long-term rescued, quality-controlled and homogenised maximum and minimum air temperature series across Ireland.
Significant increasing trends were assessed in the seasonal and annual maximum and minimum air temperature series. Additionally, significant increasing trends were assessed in the warm nights (+7.5 nights), warm days (+6.8 days), warm spell duration index (+3.9 days), growing season length (+22 days), coldest night (+2.7 °C) and coldest day (+1.5 °C) in the period 1885–2018 in Ireland. Significant decreasing trends were identified in the frost days (−13.7 days), cold days (−9.3 days), cold nights (−7 nights), cold spell duration index (−6.9 days) and diurnal air temperature range (−0.1 °C) in the same period in Ireland.
References
Mateus, C., Potito, A. and Curley, M., 2020. Reconstruction of a long‐term historical daily maximum and minimum air temperature network dataset for Ireland (1831‐1968). Geoscience Data Journal, 7(2), pp.102-115.
Mateus, C., 2021. Searching for historical meteorological observations on the Island of Ireland. Weather, 76(5), pp.160-165.
Mateus, C., Potito, A. and Curley, M., 2021. Engaging secondary school students in climate data rescue through service‐learning partnerships. Weather, 76(4), pp.113-118.
Mateus, C. and Potito, A., 2021. Development of a quality-controlled and homogenised long-term daily maximum and minimum air temperature network dataset for Ireland. Climate, 9(11), p.158.
Mateus, C. and Potito, A., 2022. Long-term trends in daily extreme air temperature indices in Ireland from 1885 to 2018. Weather and Climate Extremes, 36, p.100464.
How to cite: Mateus, C.: Long-term trends in extreme air temperature indices in Ireland, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-956, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-956, 2024.
The development of meteorology in Spain began in the 18th century, similar to other European countries. Anduaga [1] has shown that three communities fostered the first systematic meteorological observations [2]. Firstly, astronomical observatories in Cádiz and Madrid promoted such observations. Additionally, the medical community made notable efforts in this regard, and lastly, the Economic Societies of Friends of the Country propelled meteorological studies related to agricultural activities.
Gaspar Melchor de Jovellanos (5 January 1744 – 27 November 1811) is a major figure of the Age of Enlightenment in Spain. He is well-konw as statesman and author. Until now, no one has highlighted Gaspar Melchor de Jovellanos's interest in atmospheric sciences despite his evident connection with the Economic Societies of Friends of the Country and agronomic sciences. I began reading his correspondence (Complete Works, volumes II-IV [3]) hoping to find numerous references to weather or climate, and the initial results were rather disheartening. However, I continued consulting his diary (Complete Works, volumes VI-VIII) and found an extensive collection of meteorological comments.
The surprise was immense when I saw in one of the last notebooks of his diary, the twelfth, a complete set of systematic meteorological observations made during his stay at Bellver Castle in Mallorca for almost a year (which practically coincides with the year 1806). Therefore, the aim of this study is twofold: I will demonstrate Jovellanos's immense interest in meteorology and describe in detail the thermometric and barometric records obtained by Jovellanos at Bellver Castle [4].
[1] Anduaga Egaña, A. (2012) Meteorología, ideología y sociedad en la España contemporánea (Madrid: CSIC).
[2] Domínguez-Castro, F., Vaquero, J.M., et al. (2014) "Early Spanish meteorological records (1750-1850)". International Journal of Climatology 34, 593-603.
[3] Jovellanos, G.M. (1984-2022) Obras completas, 15 volumes (Gijón: KRK Ediciones).
[4] Vaquero, J.M. (2023) "Las observaciones meteorológicas de Jovellanos en el castillo de Bellver" Revista Española de Física 37(3), 22-27.
How to cite: Vaquero, J. M.: The Meteorological Observations of Jovellanos at Bellver Castle (Mallorca, Spain), EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-614, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-614, 2024.
How do societies respond to varying climates? This query not only piques academic curiosity but also holds the key to how our society can adapt to the ongoing climate change. To shed light on this, we focus on the Tenpō Famine, a pivotal event in the 1830s that was one of the most severe famines due to poor harvests caused by an abnormal climate. By investigating such a significant occurrence, we aim to provide insights into vulnerable areas in the modern era. We chose the Tenpō Famine for the case study because it falls within a period for which analytical data are readily accessible (e.g., old diaries and price records). It occurred nationwide with regional differences, which makes it valuable for gaining a broad picture of the effects of climate variation. To understand the impact of climate change on societies in the past, it is necessary to consider social and economic information from such periods. This involves reconstructing spatial patterns of climate variation at a higher temporal resolution than provided by annual data. Japan has a wealth of historical diaries from 1821 to 1850. Using these records, we developed a method to estimate solar radiation, enabling the successful reconstruction of historical solar radiation for all seasons at a higher temporal resolution than provided in annual data. Weather descriptions were categorised to estimate solar radiation, making possible analyses of climate variability and its effects at the monthly time scale. This represents a novel approach for analysing climate impacts on agriculture and the economy during this period. We then correlated the reconstructed solar radiation to rice prices, revealing a significant relationship between climatic anomalies and economic stability, particularly during the summer growing season. The results show that lower solar radiation, indicative of poor weather conditions, corresponded to higher rice prices, particularly during the summers of 1833 and 1836. The temporal resolution of economic data has also improved recently. Hence, this study contributes to understanding historical climatic impacts on society by providing an even more refined temporal resolution than was previously available. This underscores the need to integrate climate data into economic analyses to better understand the dynamics of societies facing environmental challenges. Our study is particularly relevant in the context of contemporary climate change and provides historical perspectives that can inform current policies and adaptation strategies.
How to cite: Ichino, M., Masuda, K., Mikami, T., and Takatsuki, Y.: Abnormal Climate and Market Economy: The Impact of Solar Radiation on Rice Prices during the 1830s Famine in Japan, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-376, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-376, 2024.
Meteorological data recorded in logbooks form the sailing era has received increased attention in the last decades. The daily and even sub-daily data kept by seamen, allows extending back in time the time series of wind and other relevant variables along the historically busiest naval routes. Different projects have integrated these data in the ICOADS open database, and the availability of this massive data collection in its raw format has inspired the development of a new class of climatic indices based on the wind direction variability known as “directional indices”. They have the advantage that wind direction is the only variable needed, and little or no metadata are required to convert historical observations to current standards. This minimizes the possibility of appearance of data-induced inhomogeneities and non-climatic biases in the resulting series. On these bases, during the last decade, our team has worked in the development of a suite of instrumental circulation indices for remote areas and for periods of time significantly longer than those attained by any other methodology based uniquely on in-situ meteorological observations.
Directional indices have been applied to the construction of NAO-like records, to the evaluation of the intensity of several monsoons, to the examination of the variability of local wind systems and even to the analysis of the long-term variability of upwelling favorable winds for several Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems. The common factor of all these investigations is the lack of stationarity in the relation of the structures analyzed and the classical modes of global climate variability such as El Niño / Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, both Annular Modes, etc. Our combined results provide direct instrumental evidence of the lack of stationarity between global variability modes and their associated local impacts at worldwide scale, challenging the implicit assumption of stationarity that underlies the use of proxies for climate reconstruction.
How to cite: Gallego, D., Alvarez-Castro, C., Barriopedro, D., García-Herrera, R., and Peña-Ortiz, C.: On the ubiquitous unstable relation among climate modes and their local effects, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-456, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-456, 2024.
In the paper, we focused on the possibility of reconstructing information about occurrence of strong and very strong, potentially high-impact, winds in the 18th century. The analysis was dedicated to the city of Gdansk, for which there are massive sources of various historical data - a long series of instrumental data and detailed weather notes. Among instrumental data, sub-daily weather data on wind force and sea level pressure from the period 1739-1772 were used; they were measured from two to four times a day, depending on the year, by Michael Christian Hanov, a pioneer of regular meteorological instrumental measurements in Gdansk. He has developed a special classification of wind force, dedicated to the city's conditions. One of our tasks was a translation of Hanov’s classes of wind force into Bft scale. Instrumental data were combined with a weather notes made by the same observer. We compared the above mentioned information with detailed weather chronicles published by Gottfried Reyger (Filipiak et al. 2018). The monthly number of strong winds classified according to Brazdil et al. 2004 as: fresh and strong breeze (5-7°Bft), gale (8-9°Bft) and storm (10°Bft) was reconstructed. The results of analyzes based on various data sources indicate the differentiated monthly number of strong winds, depending on the source used. The further actions towards the elimination of some inconsistencies were taken. The frequency of occurrence of strong winds in the 18th century in Gdansk was further compared with contemporary results taken at synoptic station Gdansk Northern Harbour from the period 1987–2012.
The work was done within a NCN project entitled The occurrence of extreme weather, climate and water events in Poland from the 11th to 18th centuries in the light of multiproxy data, supported by the National Science Centre, Poland, project No. 2020/37/B/ST10/00710.
References:
Brázdil R, Dobrovolný P., Štekl J., Kotyza O., Valášek H, Jež J., 2004, History of weather and climate in the Czech Lands VI: Strong winds, Masaryk University, Brno.
Filipiak J., Przybylak R., Oliński P., 2018. The longest one-man weather chronicle (1721–1786) by Gottfried Reyger for Gdańsk, Poland as a source for improved understanding of past climate variability. International Journal of Climatology, 39, 2, 828-842, doi: 10.1002/joc.5845.
How to cite: Filipiak, J., Przybylak, R., Pospieszyńska, A., Oliński, P., and Araźny, A.: Reconstruction of strong winds in Gdansk, Poland, in the 18th century, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-665, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-665, 2024.
For the first time, a comprehensive database of strong winds related to the period prior to 1800 has been created for Poland by team of climatologists and historians based on all documentary evidence available for us. The work was done within a NCN project entitled The occurrence of extreme weather, climate and water events in Poland from the 11th to 18th centuries in the light of multiproxy data. The following documentary sources were used: handwritten and unpublished, published, and so-called “secondary” literature. The database contains detailed information about the occurrence of strong winds (the location/region, time, duration and indexation for intensity, extent and character of damage), as well as the exact textual content of the original weather note, the name of the source, and an evaluation of the source’s quality. Indexation of intensity, initially done by the author of a particular contribution (record), was then evaluated by the whole team preparing the database. Four categories of strong winds were delimited: 1 − fresh and strong breeze (Beaufort scale 5–7), 2 − gale (8–9), 3 − storm (10–12), and 4 − squall (i.e., gusty wind during a thunderstorm). Extent and character of damage was estimated based on the proposition given by Brázdil et al. (2004), slightly modified by us to include the Baltic Sea and its influence on coastal parts. In the database, ~1,200 thus-defined strong winds were identified. The first weather note reporting an occurrence of strong wind (gale) was found for the year 1283. In the paper, the preliminary results describing frequency of occurrence of strong winds in the area of Poland and in its different regions will be presented. In addition, results of the extent and character of damages will be shown. Some case studies of particularly strong winds (including identified tornadoes) will be analysed in detail. The frequency of occurrence of strong winds in the historical period (1201–1800) and some of its sub-periods will be compared with contemporary results taken from 12 meteorological stations (Świnoujście, Chojnice, Olsztyn, Suwałki, Poznań, Kalisz, Warszawa, Siedlce, Kraków, Tarnów, Wrocław and Opole) from the period 1991–2020.
The work was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland, project No. 2020/37/B/ST10/00710.
Reference:
Brázdil R, Dobrovolný P., Štekl J., Kotyza O., Valášek H, Jež J., 2004, History of weather and climate in the Czech Lands VI: Strong winds, Masaryk University, Brno.
How to cite: Przybylak, R., Araźny, A., Filipiak, J., Oliński, P., and Szwaba, A.: Strong winds in Poland from the 13th to 18th centuries, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-321, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-321, 2024.
This study focuses on the analysis of air temperature, pressure and wind conditions of Labrador's coastal region in the period 1771-1787.To reconstruct the climatic conditions of this historical era, we draw upon invaluable instrumental meteorological observations made by the Moravian missionaries. All data were taken from three primary archival collections: the Moravian Archives in Herrnhut (Germany), the Moravian Archives at Muswell Hill in London, and the Archives of the Royal Society in London (Great Britain).
The eighteenth-century Moravian missionary observations offer a unique perspective on the climate of the Labrador coast, providing essential data on air temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind force and direction, and short descriptions of the weather, observed two, three, or four times a day. By examining records in a detailed and systematic manner, we aim to better understand the region's climate variability and trends during the early instrumental period. For this study, we utilized sub-daily air temperature, atmospheric pressure, and wind force and direction measurements from three sites: Nain (1771-1786), Okak (1776-1787), and Hoffenthal (1782-1786). All available historical data were quality controlled and converted to present units (°C, hPa, ms˗1 ). The necessary corrections to all studied variables were introduced. For example, the original daily air temperature means (calculated from different measurement times) were corrected to real means calculated from 24 hourly measurements. Corrections for each month were calculated based on contemporary data (1991–2010). The corrected data have been used to calculate monthly, seasonal and yearly means and other statistics. For example, we calculated a number of different categories of cold/warm days, growing degree days sum (GDD), air thawing index degree-days sums (ATI), positive degree-days sum (PDD) and air freezing index degree-days sum (AFI). The last four indices were calculated using definitions proposed by Nordli et al. (2020). The climate conditions of the study period in the coastal part of Labrador are compared to present-day ones.
The work was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland project No. 2020/39/B/ST10/00653.
References:
Nordli, Ø., Wyszyński, P., Gjelten, H. M., Isaksen, K., Łupikasza, E., Niedźwiedź, T., and Przybylak, R., 2020, Revisiting the extended Svalbard Airport monthly temperature series, and the compiled corresponding daily series 1898–2018, Polar Res., 39, 3614, http://dx.doi.org/10.33265/polar.v39.3614.
How to cite: Singh, G., Przybylak, R., Araźny, A., Wyszyński, P., and Chmist, K.: Climate conditions of the coastal part of Labrador in the late 18th century, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-16, 2024.
The bioclimate of the north-eastern part of the Labrador Peninsula was estimated based on meteorological observations from three measuring stations: Nain, Okak and Hopedale. The meteorological measurements were taken by Moravian Missionaries who conducted religious missions in this area.
The collected data concerned air temperature, atmospheric pressure and wind speed and direction. Observations were carried out four times a day, at 8 a.m., 12 p.m., 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. The materials used in this work came from three European archives: the Moravian Archives in Herrnhut (Germany), the Moravian Archives at Muswell Hill in London, and the Archives of the Royal Society in London (Great Britain).
In order to compare bioclimatic analyses between stations, it was decided to standardise measurement periods. Two time slots were designated:
- from September 1776 to August 1786 (~98% data coverage): the analysis included data from the Nain and Okak stations at 12:00 local time, due to the bioclimatic conditions being most favourable for humans at that time,
- from September 1782 to August 1786, with an annual gap from September 1784 to August 1785 (~93% data coverage): three measuring stations were analysed: Nain, Okak and Hopedale. The time interval was determined based on the shortest data series (i.e., that from the Hopedale station).
In order to present the bioclimatic conditions in the north-eastern part of the Labrador Peninsula, the following indicators were used: Wind Chill Temperature (WCT), Wind Chill Index (WCI) and Insulation Predicted (Iclp). The results were compared with the reference period (1991–2020) from the Nain station.
It was found that, in the first of the specified time intervals (lasting 10 years), the bioclimatic conditions were more favourable than in the comparative period. However, it is worth noting that the conditions in Nain were less bearable for humans than in Okak. In the second time period (only 3 years), the most difficult conditions prevailed at the Okak station. Milder conditions were recorded at Nain station, while the most favourable were recorded at Hopedale. This was primarily due to the analysed time period. During the measurements, relatively mild winters were recorded at the Hopedale station, which influenced the final result.
At each station during the analysis period, conditions for humans were less favourable than in the reference period. The main role in this matter was played by wind speed, which was much higher in 1991–2020 than in the second half of the 18th century.
The work was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland project No. 2020/39/B/ST10/00653.
How to cite: Chmist, K., Araźny, A., Przybylak, R., Wyszyński, P., and Singh, G.: Bioclimatic conditions in the north-eastern part of the Labrador Peninsula in the second half of the 18th century , EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-31, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-31, 2024.
Under the proposal of “seamless forecasting”, it has become a key problem for meteorologists to improve the skills
of subseasonal forecasts. Since the launch of the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) plan by WMO, the precision of model
predictions has been further developed. However, when we are focusing on the practical applications of models
in the South China (SC) in recent years, we found that large disagreements appear between forecast members. Some
of the members predicted well in this area, while others are not satisfactory. To improve the accuracy of subseasonal
forecast in the SC, new methods making full use of different forecast models must be proposed. In this passage, we
introduced a weighted ensemble forecasting method based on online learning (OL) to overcome this difficulty. As
the state-of-the-art forecast models in the world, three models from China Meteorological Administration, European
Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and National Centers for Environmental Prediction provided by the S2S
prediction dataset are used as ensemble members, and an ensemble weight is trained through the aforementioned
OL model for the predictions of temperature and precipitation in subseasonal timescale in the SC. The results show
that the forecast results produced under the OL method are better than the original model predictions. Compared
with the three model ensemble results, the weighted ensemble model has a good ability in depicting the temperature
and precipitation in the SC. Furthermore, we also compared this strategy against the climatology predictions
and found out that the weighted ensemble model is superior in 10–30 days. Thus, the weighted ensemble method
trained thorough OL may shed light on improving the skill of subseasonal forecasts.
How to cite: Xin, F.: Application of a weighted ensembleforecasting method based on online learningin subseasonal forecast in the South China, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-151, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-151, 2024.
Drought is a recurrent feature of the Mediterranean climate. However, some of its severe manifestations cause important social impacts. In the current context of climate change, Catalonia (NE of the Iberian Peninsula) is experiencing episodes of drought with a frequency and severity of worrying characteristics. The study of this climatic risk on large time scales is justified in order to enable better management of any similar situations that may occur in the future.
This work proposes an approach to some of the episodes of similar severity that have occurred in recent history. This allows us to incorporate information from different sources. Specifically, the study analyses the period of the last third of the 19th century, in which a sustained rainfall deficit appears in the instrumental meteorological series of Barcelona. From this first identification, we work with the instrumental series available in Spain before 1900. We use a total of 18 rainfall series that covers the last third of the 19th Century, including that of Barcelona (1786-2023). We also use information from historical documentary sources for the period 1860-1900, which contain cultural proxies (pro pluvia rogations) and direct descriptions of drought impacts.
A high temporal resolution study, with information at daily resolution, makes it possible to study the conditions and evolution of the drought during the aforementioned period on the Spanish Mediterranean coast and in Catalonia. It identifies the periods of greatest severity and the areas affected.
Moreover, the utilisation of documentary and bibliographical sources allows us to identify and evaluate information on the impacts suffered by society and the stages of deterioration that are progressively detected. The episode of drought at the end of the 19th century may not manifest acute and evident periods, but its long duration generated a serious social situation. Agricultural activity suffered from low yields and this productive crisis was showed by the markets. Resulting in severe tensions and conflicts amongst the working classes, both rural and urban, due to these economic problems. This situation led to a strong deterioration of the socio-political situation that continued during the first years of the 20th century.
How to cite: Barriendos, J., Piera, G., Gorostiza, S., and Barriendos, M.: Severe drought events of late 19th century in Catalonia (NE Spain) and their social impacts (1864-1897), EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-206, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-206, 2024.
We present the results of an historical investigation focusing on rainfall-related impact on the transportation network of a coastal Mediterranean area (Calabria, southern Italy) recorded throughout 220 years. The entire series of documentary data gathered allowed us to identify the most frequently and/or severely hit sectors, and GIS elaboration was performed to produce a vulnerability map of the study area, highlighting sectors most prone to be affected and the most probable kind of hazard to be expected as impact source.
On the other side, the 220-year damage series and its comparison with daily rainfall data, available since 1938, allowed us to identify rainfall thresholds able to trigger either severe territorial crisis or temporary and light impact on transport facilities, and to identify the long-term temporal/seasonal trend of past damaging events. The study area, around 70 km2 wide, is the sum of the surface of two Calabrian municipalities (Scilla and Bagnara Calabra) located in the southernmost regional province of Reggio Calabria. Beside to historical data about landslides, floods, and storm surges contained in the database ASICal (Italian acronym of historically flooded areas), a data catalogue maintained by CNR-IRPI researchers, we collected further data performing specific surveys in local State archives and in the website of the companies which own and maintain roads and railways of the area, as well as in press archives of regional and national newspapers.
The total number of damage-related reports collected was about 280 over 220 years. Damage caused by landslides (85 %) was more numerous than those caused by floods (15 %). Probably due to the largest number of data sources characterizing most recent years, the highest event’s occurrence (27%) pertains to the decade 2010-2019, with a seasonal distribution higher in autumn-winter period (36%). The study delves into the pros and cons of the use of historical data and their usefulness for the identification of critical points and management of territorial crisis in the light of climate change in a Mediterranean study area.
This work was funded by the Next Generation EU—Italian NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.5, call for the creation and strengthening of ‘Innovation Ecosystems’, building ‘Territorial R&D Leaders’ (Directorial Decree n. 2021/3277)—project Tech4You—Technologies for climate change adaptation and quality of life improvement, n. ECS0000009. This work reflects only the authors' views and opinions, neither the Ministry for University and Research nor the European Commission can be considered responsible for them.
How to cite: Scarcella, G. E., Conforti, M., Cosentini, G., Valente, E., and Petrucci, O.: GIS-aided historical data for assessing rainfall-related effect along a transportation network of a coastal Mediterranean area (Calabria, southern Italy), EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-236, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-236, 2024.
The winter at the turn of the years 1923 and 1924 in the highest elevated areas of the Slovak mountains was exceptionally rich in snow, leading to an increased occurrence of avalanches. The deadliest avalanche not only in that season but in the entire history of Slovakia occurred on the night of February 6, 1924, from the southeast slope of Mount Krížna (1,574 m above sea level) in the Veľká Fatra mountain range.
In the presented contribution, we try to analyse the meteorological and snow conditions that led to this tragic event. The assessment of the weather situation was carried out based on the NOAA-CIRES reanalysis of the 500 hPa geopotential, surface pressure field, and temperature at 850 hPa. In addition, 103 precipitation and 10 climatological stations were used for the analysis of snow cover height and for the validation of the NOAA-CIRES reanalysis.
According to available data, the deepening of low-pressure systems over the Baltic states played a crucial role in creating suitable conditions for avalanches, associated with a frontal passage over Slovakia from February 2nd to 6th, 1924. A northwest cyclonic situation prevailed, during which a significant amount of snow fell on the northwest (lee) slopes of the mountains due to orographic lifting in a relatively short period. This effect was observed on the ridge of the Veľká Fatra and also in the area of Krížna, where around 60 cm of new snow fell in 4 days. Due to the absence of trees or other vegetation that could increase surface roughness in this location, the snow was easily transported by the northwest wind to the leeward side of the mountains, creating conditions for snow cover accumulation on the eastern slopes.
The temperature at the 850 hPa level was below freezing from February 2nd to 5th. However, on February 5th, 1924, a warm front passed through, leading to a short-term significant warming, combined with extremely intense snowfall driven by west to northwest winds, which transported snow into the release zone with predominantly east exposure. Here, the previously above-average snow cover height created suitable conditions for avalanche initiation.
The avalanche in the settlement of Rybô destroyed 3 houses and damaged 2 others. It buried 22 people, of whom 18 (including 15 children) did not survive. The amount of snow in the avalanche was so significant that it did not melt even during the summer. The avalanche was approximately 2.5 km long and descended a vertical distance of 760 m. It generated very high impact pressure and speed (up to 180 km/h). According to today's international avalanche classification, this avalanche would be classified as a very large avalanche, which is the largest size category.
How to cite: Mikulova, K., Vojtek, M., Ivaňáková, G., Polčák, N., and Faško, P.: 100 years since the biggest avalanche tragedy in Slovakia in the Rybô village - reanalysis of weather conditions, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-264, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-264, 2024.
Drought is a prevalent climatic risk in the Mediterranean region. The Mediterranean climate’s specific conditions define a pluviometric pattern characterized by pluviometric deficits in certain seasons of the year. Interannual variability also highlights drought as a frequent phenomenon within the Mediterranean climate.
The current context in NE Spain presents a worrisome outlook, with a very severe and persistent drought episode for the period 2021-2024, leading Catalonia into an emergency situation. In order to improve the management and planning of these episodes in the immediate future, it is necessary to increase knowledge about severe drought episodes occurred in the past, focusing efforts on low-frequency and high-severity events.
This study proposes a methodological approach to identify and catalog drought episodes from historical data. It represents an initial effort to compile sufficient information to propose classification criteria and to carry out a first diagnosis of the behaviour of drought at large timescales.
The initiative has been undertaken by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia and a team of specialists who have worked with information obtained from documentary and bibliographic sources, spanning the period from 1700 to 1950. Qualitative information has been compiled from municipal and ecclesiastical administrative sources, with a daily resolution: pro pluvia rogations of different levels of severity (from 1 to 5) and direct descriptions of drought impacts. A total of 475 episodes of rainfall deficit have been identified, which can be classified into four different categories according to their duration:
- Punctual Droughts (lasting several days).
- Meteorological Droughts (lasting several months).
- Climatic Droughts (lasting several years).
- Megadroughts (a sequence of climatic droughts).
Hydrological drought situations, characterized by decrease water levels in rivers and canals, as well as groundwater levels in wells and mines, have been also been identified in response to atmospheric drought. Issues related of agricultural activity, energy production and water supply to the population have been also detected.
The collected information allows for a quantitative assessment of each drought episode in some basic aspects such as the duration, affected area and severity.
As for basic results, it can be stated that the current severe drought shares similarities with historical references, such as the episodes observed in the last decades of the 19th century, the megadrought spanning from 1812 to 1825, or the intense climatic drought experienced from 1750 to 1755.
How to cite: Barriendos, M., Barriendos, J., Cunillera, J., and Prohom, M.: Historical Droughts in Catalonia. New database for events from 1700 to 1950, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-276, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-276, 2024.
Human biometeorology as a discipline of applied climatology is important in various spheres of human activity (from everyday life to natural environmental protection, tourism and recreation, spatial organisation and others). In polar areas, e.g. in the Arctic, the thermal load on the human body caused by the environment is an important indicator of climatic discomfort, where extreme cold is recorded often combined with strong winds.
The aim of this study is to present changes in bioclimatic conditions over the last ~150 years in south-west Greenland. This is an attempt to estimate, for the first time, the conditions experienced by humans in the Arctic over such a long time horizon, i.e. from the end of the 19th century to the beginning of the 21st century.
The study for the Nuuk station used meteorological data (air temperature and wind speed) from the Danish Meteorological Yearbooks (Meteorologisk Aarbog) from the period 1874–1957. Modern (1958–2020) meteorological data for Nuuk (station no. 4250) are taken from the collection of the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) from report No. 21-08 archived at https://www.dmi.dk/publikationer/. Data are stored in two different formats for the particular periods 1958–2013 and 2014–20 (for more details, see Cappelen 2021).
The study analysed two biometeorological indexes: wind chill temperature (WCT) and predicted clothing insulation (Iclp). Apparent cold and extent of frostbite risk to the human body were assessed using the WCT. On the other hand, the thermal insulation of clothing required for a person to maintain thermal equilibrium in a given set of meteorological conditions was estimated using the Iclp index. Both biometeorological indices were calculated using BioKlima 2.6 software (https://www.igipz.pan.pl/bioklima-crd.html).
The work was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland, project No. 2020/39/B/ST10/00653.
References:
Cappelen J. 2021. Weather observations from Greenland 1958–2020, DMI Report 21–08, https://www.dmi.dk/fileadmin/Rapporter/2021/DMIRep21-08.pdf
Meteorologisk Aarbog. 1874–1957. Det Danske Meteorologiske Institut, Kjøbenhavn
How to cite: Araźny, A., Chmist, K., Przybylak, R., Wyszyński, P., and Singh, G.: Changes in bioclimatic conditions in Nuuk (SW Greenland) in the years 1874–2020, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-314, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-314, 2024.
Global warming is particularly intense in the Arctic, where temperature trends are up to four times higher than those observed globally. This results in Arctic permanently frozen soils, known as permafrost, being particularly vulnerable to climate change. Permafrost degradation due to warming is a critical element for Earth's climate stability, as it leads to the release of substantial amounts of carbon into the atmosphere, acting as a positive feedback mechanism for climate change. Additionally, the permafrost retreat leads to changes in the landscape, loss of resources, and damage to infrastructure, posing an economic challenge for populations inhabiting the Arctic. However, the increase in temperatures is not the only factor affecting permafrost degradation. Changes in water availability in the Arctic, induced by decadal and centennial changes in general atmospheric circulation, significantly alter soil moisture and the presence of ice, and thus the thermal structure of the soil in permafrost regions. This, in turn, may have global feedbacks through Arctic Amplification processes.
The representation of Arctic hydrological and thermodynamical processes and their interactions is still limited in current ESMs, hindering the understanding of Arctic permafrost dynamics. This work explores the response of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's ESM (MPI-ESM) to changes in hydrological and thermodynamic characteristics of its Land Surface Model, JSBACH, in permafrost-affected regions. A set of ongoing experiments covering the past2k (0-1850), the historical period (1850-2014), and different climate change scenarios (SSPs, 2015-2100) with variations in soil depth and vertical resolution under two hydro-thermodynamic coupling configurations generating comparatively drier or wetter conditions in the Arctic allows for assessing climate sensitivities to Arctic hydroclimate.
How to cite: García-Pereira, F., González-Rouco, J. F., Meabe-Yanguas, N., Jungclaus, J., de Vrese, P., and Lorenz, S.: Long-term responses to changes in Arctic soil hydrology, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-363, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-363, 2024.
The island of El Hierro, situated as the southwesternmost territory within the Canary Islands archipelago, is renowned for its distinctive climate. Global warming is anticipated to increase the frequency and severity of droughts in the area, posing a significant threat to its inhabitants, economy, and delicate ecosystems.
The main aim of this research is to identify droughts that affected El Hierro Island between 1941 and 1970. This will be achieved through by analyzing of hourly total precipitation data obtained from the ERA5 climate reanalysis.
In addition to precipitation data, this study also integrated various variables from ERA5 that influence droughts, including surface pressure, mean sea level pressure, geopotential height at 500 hPa, temperature at 2 meters above the land surface, sea surface temperature, volumetric soil water content, wind components (U and V), and surface downward solar radiation. To assess the accuracy of ERA5 estimates, precipitation data from eight stations provided by the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) were utilized. Furthermore, documentary research was conducted to identify droughts prior to 1941, involving a thorough examination of digital repositories such as the National Library of Spain (BNE) and the Virtual Library of Historical Press (Spain).
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed to assess the severity, magnitude, and duration of the droughts. Additionally, R packages such as TIDYVERSE, DPLYR, SP, SPEI, and PSYCH were utilized for the analysis of the variables. Moreover, CLIMATOL and TREND were used to ensure the quality of the observational records.
This research pioneers the quantitative analysis of the droughts that affected El Hierro Island between 1941 and 1970. This period has been largely overlooked in previous studies and is characterized by a scarcity of high-quality observational records. The findings reveal that droughts are recurrent on the island, with at least one persistent drought per decade. Notably, the 1947-1949 drought stands out as the most prolonged and severe, impacting hydrological, agricultural, and socioeconomic aspects.
In conclusion, this analysis offers valuable insights into the historical patterns and future trends of droughts on El Hierro Island, laying the groundwork for the development of informed adaptation strategies. Moreover, it contributes to enhancing our understanding and monitoring of droughts, which could reduce their impact on the population in the future.
How to cite: Caballero-Fernández, D., Salvador-Franch, F., and Salvà-Catarineu, M.: Identifying Past Droughts in El Hierro (Canary Islands) With ERA5 Climate Reanalysis and SPI, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-554, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-554, 2024.
Speleothems are distinctive carbonate deposits found in caves, used to reconstruct hydrological variability and provide valuable paleoclimate records. Nonetheless, the interpretation of their geochemical proxies becomes a considerable challenge.
La Cova del Drac, situated on Mallorca Island, is one of the most frequented caves in Europe. During the late 19th century, pioneering explorers developed initial naturalistic expeditions and topographic studies. Nevertheless, it was not until the period between 1922 and 1935 that adaptation work was developed, leading to the establishment of permanent pathways, including the installation of the first lighting system. The two speleothems presented in this study were growing beyond these anthropogenic structures allowing a geochronological control into their initial growth.
The examination of confocal laser scanning microscopy images of these two speleothems revealed distinct fluorescence banding, pointing to seasonal growth patterns. Additionally, high-resolution trace element profiles, acquired using LA-ICP-MS, reveal geochemical cycles reflecting the impact of seasonal cave ventilation on the trace element signatures within the speleothems. Through the combination of annual fluorescence layer counting, analysis of trace element cycles, and the adjustment with the 14C bomb peak as a tie point, well-resolved age models spanning certainly the past century have been achieved.
This study establishes a robust framework by correlating the speleothem geochemistry results with cave monitoring and meteorological data. This exercise discerns the influence of the cave atmosphere seasonality from the hydrological and regional climatic signal across longer time scales. Consequently, this study validates the geochemical signal recorded in Mallorca cave speleothems as a reliable indicator of climatic variability in the western Mediterranean region.
How to cite: Torner, J., Cacho, I., Fornós, J., Català, A., Cisneros, M., Bladé, I., Moreno, A., and Stoll, H.: Decoding the climatic signal recorded in speleothems from La Cova del Drac in Mallorca, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 Sep 2024, EMS2024-1076, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-1076, 2024.
