Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events impacts on the Future of Viticulture in Portugal

Local environmental conditions fundamentally influence both the yield and quality of grapes, therefore wine regions have traditionally optimised these conditions through strategic varietal selection and viticultural practices. However, the sustainability of viticulture, especially in Portugal, faces a growing threat from climate change, with escalating temperatures, changing patterns of precipitation, and more frequent extreme weather events. Due to the significant impact of climate, particularly air temperature, on the growth, productivity, and life cycle stages of grapevines, many Portuguese wine regions are currently reaching or surpassing their ideal climate conditions for optimal grape production. This study assesses climate risks in Portugal's Wine Protected Denomination of Origin (PDO) regions by analysing climate extreme indices for historical (1981-2010) and future (2041-2070 and 2071-2100) periods under the high emissions Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The results show a significant increase in temperature extremes, particularly in western regions, coupled with a decrease in precipitation and an intensification of drought extremes, increasing the risk of severe droughts. These climatic changes pose a direct threat to vine development, yields, and the typicity of regional wines, particularly in key regions such as Alentejo and Douro. To mitigate these challenges, this study highlights the importance of integrating climate information into viticultural decision-making. To effectively inform winemakers and guide their adaptation strategies, a crucial first step is identifying climate vulnerabilities at a regional scale, which will encompass refined vineyard management practices, selection of resilient grape varietals, and, as a last resort, the potential relocation of vineyards. By providing actionable insights into evolving climate risks, this study contributes to the long-term sustainability of Portuguese viticulture, ensuring the resilience of the Portuguese wine sector in an era of unprecedented environmental change.

 

Acknowledgments: Research funded by Vine & Wine Portugal—Driving Sustainable Growth Through Smart Innovation, PRR & NextGeneration EU, Agendas Mobilizadoras para a Reindustrialização, Contract Nb. C644866286-011. We acknowledge FCT – Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UIDB/04033 and LA/P/0126/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/04033/2020).