TurboMeter: attributing aviation turbulence events to climate change

Turbulence remains a critical challenge for aviation safety and operational efficiency, as starkly demonstrated by recent high-profile incidents involving Singapore Airlines, Qatar Airways, and Scandinavian Airlines. Among the various types, Clear Air Turbulence (CAT) is particularly dangerous because it occurs in cloudless conditions, making it virtually invisible to both pilots and onboard radar systems. The increasing frequency and intensity of turbulence-related events have raised pressing questions about the influence of climate change on atmospheric stability and jet stream dynamics. As global warming accelerates, the large-scale circulation patterns of the atmosphere are undergoing profound changes, altering the intensity and location of key features such as the jet stream and upper-level wind shear zones, both known to be major contributors to CAT formation.

In this context, we introduce TurboMeter, a companion initiative to the ClimaMeter platform, which aims to systematically assess the role of climate variability and change in shaping turbulence hazards. TurboMeter uses ERA5 reanalysis data to identify meteorological precursors of turbulence by comparing recent events with climatological analogues, historical atmospheric configurations with similar large-scale characteristics. Through the application of turbulence diagnostics, including first- and second-generation Ellrod indices, we evaluate the contributions of horizontal wind shear, vertical wind gradients, temperature advection, and convective instability at multiple flight-relevant altitudes.

To illustrate the utility of TurboMeter, we examine a set of turbulence events that occurred in 2024 across Europe and Asia. Our analysis shows a clear association between these events and enhanced jet stream activity, as well as stronger convective development, both linked to anthropogenic climate forcing. These results underscore the urgent need for advanced turbulence prediction models and more climate-aware operational strategies to ensure safer skies in a warming world.