Serious gaming to create spaces for meaningful dialogue between producers and users of subseasonal to seasonal forecasts

For meteorological and climate services to be truly impactful, they must be developed with a clear understanding of users’ needs and the context in which decisions are made. The growing availability of seasonal and sub-seasonal (S2S) forecasts, for example, could greatly benefit the agricultural sector. However, little is known about the effectiveness and actionability of S2S products in European real-world farming contexts. Additionally, there is often a lack of opportunities for meaningful dialogue between producers and users of forecasts, which limits the uptake and improvements of S2S forecasts.

To help bridge this gap, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway), within the framework of the Climate Futures centre for research-based innovation, has been exploring the use of serious games as an innovative methodology to foster dialogue with agricultural stakeholders about the opportunities and limits of the institute’s S2S information services: the 21-day forecast, which was recently launched, and the seasonal forecast, which is currently in the final development phase before becoming operational. 

In collaboration with the Norwegian Agricultural Advisory Service, we have developed Melkeværet, a hybrid board-digital game simulating farming decision-making in the milk-production sector. The players sit around a board showing the calendar of a productive season by weekly steps. They compete in producing milk by making strategic decisions with the support of short-, medium- and long-term weather forecast information. The digital support shows the players the grass growing process on their fictional farms and calculates each one’s performance. 

A series of game sessions were carried out in 2024 and 2025, which involved more than 30 participants in total, among which farmers, agricultural consultants, researchers and meteorologists. The first results show that Melkeværet is effective in making the participants feel engaged and promoting the exchange of information. Importantly, the game sessions highlighted farmers’ decision-making strategies and needs related to S2S products as a key aspect in attempts to integrate weather and climate information across timescales. The game sessions shed light on how farmers simultaneously rely on weather observations, memories from past seasons, and sharing of information through networks of trust relationships. They also revealed farmers’ need to compare probabilistic forecasts in real time with normal conditions and earlier forecasts. The sessions showed that farmers prefer written descriptions of upcoming conditions over purely numerical or graphical formats, and that they see seasonal forecasts as especially valuable for making decisions during the initial planning phase of the season. 

Future steps involve both the organization of additional game sessions for continuing to explore the use of S2S forecast information in the agricultural sector, and the further development of Melkeværet. We are currently exploring the inclusion of AI-based forecast products, as well as scoping Melkeværet to other (geographical) scenarios for supporting international collaboration.