Urban growth’s implications on land surface temperature in a medium-sized European city based on LCZ classification

The study determined the influence of changes in land use and land cover (LULC) on land surface temperature (LST) over a 33-year period based on a medium-sized European city (Poznań, Poland). The LST was estimated from Landsat 5, 8 and Terra (MOD11A2v6) satellites. The local estimation of climate patterns was based on the Local Climate Zones (LCZ) classification utilised with the methodology proposed by the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT). Moreover, the Copernicus’ imperviousness density product (IMD) was used. Between 2006 and 2018 the area with IMD of 41–100% increased by 6.95 km², 0–20% decreased by 7.03 km². The contribution of built-up LCZs increased by 7.4% (19.21 km²) between 1988 and 2021 reaching 13% (34 km²) within open mid-rise LCZ. Due to urbanisation and reforestation, low plants LCZ shrunk by 12.7%. For every 10% increase in IMD, LST increases by up to 0.14 °C. Between 1988 and 2021 the LSTm in specific LCZs rose from 1.52 up to 2.97 °C. As per LST models LCZ change from natural to built-up led up to 1.19 °C LST rise. The increase of the LSTm was registered even when the LCZ remained unchanged. The results highlight a clear trend of intensifying urban heat island effects driven by the transformation of natural and semi-natural areas into impervious and built-up surfaces. The spatial distribution of LST patterns strongly correlates with the extent and density of artificial surfaces, as confirmed by both remote sensing data and LCZ classification. Additionally, the study emphasizes the utility of integrating multi-source satellite data with standardised urban classification methods to detect fine-scale thermal responses to urban development. These insights provide valuable input for urban planning and climate adaptation strategies aimed at mitigating future temperature rises in expanding urban areas.