Weather warning system in Tuscany (Italy): assessing user needs and the gap between expectations and predictability

In Italy, regional meteorological services form the backbone of the weather warning system, providing crucial monitoring and forecasting for civil protection agencies. Tuscany's LaMMA Consortium, a collaboration between the Regional Authority and the National Research Council (CNR), has played this role for over two decades. To optimize its service and enhance communication effectiveness, LaMMA annually surveys Tuscan civil protection entities, soliciting feedback on their satisfaction with weather warnings and identifying persistent challenges and information needs.

This presentation will analyze key findings from recent LaMMA surveys, highlighting a significant hurdle in the communication chain: the gap between the expectations of public administrators and the inherent uncertainties in weather prediction. Tasked with making critical decisions based on meteorological information, these users often demand highly detailed spatial and temporal forecasts. However, the probabilistic nature of atmospheric science and the increasing use of ensemble forecasting present a challenge, as administrators often struggle to interpret and utilize probabilistic information effectively. This difficulty is particularly evident in the context of "yellow" (moderate risk) alerts and the forecasting of convective events like thunderstorms, where forecast uncertainty is often more pronounced. Indeed, feedback reveals a strong demand for more detailed and localized forecasts, coupled with improved communication of uncertainty, particularly concerning these yellow alerts and thunderstorms. Furthermore, respondents expressed a desire for more technical information and training for civil protection personnel, alongside a recognized need to enhance direct communication with the public and integrate hydrogeological data into the warning process. The calibration and consistency of alerts are also considered crucial for maintaining public trust in the system.

The presentation will explore the implications of this communication gap.