Climate change velocity at constant elevation is tenfold greater than earlier unconstrained estimates

Climate change is fundamentally reshaping ecosystems and human societies. One powerful way to quantify this change is through climate change velocity—a metric that translates temperature shifts into equivalent poleward displacement, representing the distance one must move to maintain a stable climate. This measure provides information into how species may need to migrate, the challenges they may face in tracking suitable habitats, and the potential stress on human populations and ecosystems. Previous studies have estimated the mean poleward movement over land at approximately 0.4 km per year. Here, we introduce an approach leveraging Machine Learning models and demonstrate that the global mean climate-change velocity over land is an order of magnitude larger than previously reported — approximately 4 km per year. Certain regions exhibit much higher climate velocities—up to ≈30 km per year. Our results align closely with a simplified calculation comparing mean latitudinal temperature gradients with the current warming rate of ≈0.3°C per decade over land. Because temperature decreases with altitude, species and ecosystems may adjust by moving upslope rather than poleward. To reflect this complexity, our analysis explicitly quantifies both latitudinal displacement and the complementary elevation gain required to offset warming. By separating these two factors, our analysis reveals that the required poleward shift at constant altitude is significantly greater than previously reported.  Our model further provides information on the spatial distribution of climate change velocity, globally. The substantial velocity revealed in this analysis surpasses possible migration capabilities for many species, leading to biodiversity loss and increased extinction risk. These findings emphasize the rapid and profound implications of climate change for both ecological systems and human populations, highlighting the urgency of climate action.