New national projections and climate assessment report for Norway

In late October 2025, the Norwegian Centre for Climate Services (NCCS) will launch a new national climate assessment report for Norway, commissioned by the Norwegian Environment Agency. Alongside the report, we will release a dataset featuring national daily climate and hydrological projections, including a comprehensive set of climate indicators. These indicators reflect projected changes relative to the current normal period (1991–2020), for both the mid-century (2041–2070) and end-of-century (2071–2100) periods. 

The national projections are based on three emission scenarios: RCP2.6 (low), RCP4.5 (medium) and SSP3-7.0 (high). Due to the unavailability of downscaled ensembles of SSP-scenarios representing low and medium emissions from EURO-CORDEX, these are not included. For climate adaptation, the Norwegian government recommends basing assessments on a high emission scenario. Accordingly, the report places particular emphasis on results from the high emission scenario.

In this presentation, we offer a sneak peek of key findings from the report, including analyses of past and current climate conditions, hydrological normals, and projected future changes in climate, hydrology and effects on natural hazards. Under the high emission scenario, the mean projected temperature increase for mainland Norway is 3.4 °C (2071–2100 relative to 1991–2020). Precipitation is projected to increase by 11 %, and runoff by 10 %. 

Compared to the previous national climate assessment report (Hanssen-Bauer et al., 2015), the current ensemble displays a smaller projected temperature increase. This is due to both the lower radiative forcing in SSP3-7.0 compared to RCP8.5, and a shorter period between the reference and the end-of-century period. While the projected precipitation increase is also more moderate, the increase in runoff exceeds that of the previous report. 

Additionally, we will briefly outline plans for data distribution, outreach, and future work related to this updated national climate knowledge base. Specifically, we will highlight ongoing efforts to tailor climate information for Norwegian municipalities, emphasising co-development and user involvement throughout the process.

 

References:

Hanssen-Bauer et al., 2015: Klima i Norge 2100. Kunnskapsgrunnlaget for klimatilpasning oppdatert i 2015 (in Norwegian). NCCS report 02/2015.