Advancing Adriatic Climate Modeling Through Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling

Understanding the climate dynamics of the Adriatic Sea requires a precise representation of the complex interactions between the ocean and atmosphere. Traditional uncoupled modeling systems often simplify or overlook key processes such as feedback mechanisms, surface heat and momentum exchanges, and river runoff effects, potentially leading to significant biases in climate projections.

This study explores the benefits of coupling the atmospheric model WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) with the ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean), focusing on the Adriatic region. The coupled system also incorporates WRFHydro to account for hydrological contributions, particularly river discharges, an essential component in coastal and estuarine environments like the Adriatic Sea. The framework was developed and tested as part of the AdriaClimPlus project.

Our results demonstrate that the coupled approach provides a more accurate and physically consistent simulation of climate dynamics. Key advantages include a better representation of feedbacks between sea surface temperature and atmospheric fluxes, which in turn improves the simulation of wind patterns, precipitation, and ocean currents. Additionally, the integration of river discharge through WRFHydro enhances the realism of salinity and stratification patterns, which are crucial for understanding coastal circulation and ecosystem responses.

Comparative analysis between coupled and uncoupled simulations shows that the coupled system reduces biases in both atmospheric and oceanic variables, especially during extreme events. For instance, surface fluxes are better balanced, and sea surface temperatures remain more consistent with observations over extended periods. These improvements highlight the potential of coupled systems in supporting more robust climate impact assessments and informing adaptation strategies in vulnerable coastal zones.

Overall, this work underscores the importance of integrated modeling frameworks for regional climate studies and supports the advancement of coupled systems as standard tools for future climate projections in the Adriatic and similar coastal environments.