Short-term variability and extremes in wind and solar resources under a changing climate

As the share of variable renewable energy (VRE) such as wind and solar power continues to grow across Europe, understanding how climate change may affect their short-term variability and extreme events is critical for energy planning, system stability, and resilience. This study investigates projected changes in sub-daily variability and the frequency of extreme conditions in wind and solar energy resources using regional climate model simulations over Europe.

We employ a suite of features to characterize the short-term dynamics of VRE resources, including ramp rates, lag-1 autocorrelation, and event-based metrics such as the duration and persistence of power drops (e.g., time below the P10 threshold). These features are computed from 3-hourly wind speed and surface solar radiation data, covering both historical and future periods from the Euro-CORDEX ensemble under the RCP8.5 scenario. To support the robustness of the analysis, model outputs are compared against long-term observations from tall towers and surface radiation stations at selected European sites.

The results suggest that future climate conditions could lead to both beneficial and adverse changes in VRE variability: increased persistence may enhance predictability in some regions, while intensified ramp events and prolonged low-production periods may pose challenges for grid management and storage needs elsewhere. The spatially diverse impacts highlight the need for regional-scale assessments.

These findings demonstrate the importance of integrating short-term variability and extremes into long-term energy system modeling and risk assessments, and they provide actionable insights for improving the resilience of future low-carbon energy systems.