1,2,3,1,4,1,- 1National Meteorological Administration (MeteoROmania), Department of Climatology, Bucharesst, Romania (vlad.amihaesei@meteoromania.com)
- 2Doctoral School of Geosciences, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iași, Iași, Romania
- 3Helmholtz-Zentrum hereon, Geesthacht, Germany
- 4Doctoral School of Geography, Babeș-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
- 5Simion Mehedinți Doctoral School, Faculty of Geography, University of Bucharest, Romania
The seasonal snowpack in the Alps and Carpathians is undergoing rapid transformation due to climate change, but the implications of these shifts for snow avalanche activity remain insufficiently understood. This study investigates both observed and projected changes in climate indicators relevant to snow avalanche activity, analyzing current conditions (1984–2021, based on the CERRA dataset) and future scenarios (up to 2100, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, using EURO-CORDEX simulations). Our objective is to assess how climate conditions favorable for dry- and wet-snow avalanche occurrences may evolve throughout the 21st century in the Alps and Carpathians. Avalanche activity is inferred from climatic pre-conditions identified in historical avalanche records sourced from the European Avalanche Warning Services and the mountain rescue databases, calibrated to the unique climatic and topographic features of the Alps and Carpathians. In addition, terrain and land cover characteristics are integrated into the analysis to delineate areas of high and very high susceptibility to snow avalanches across the region. Findings reveal a complex pattern of change in climatic conditions associated with both dry- and wet-snow avalanche activity. Depending on elevation and the emission scenario, future projections suggest an overall reduction in total avalanche activity by the end of the century compared to present-day baselines. This study represents one of the first comprehensive assessments of climate change impacts on snow avalanche dynamics in the Alps and Carpathian Mountains and provides a valuable reference point for further investigations into mountain hazards under evolving climate conditions.
This research received funds from the project “Cross-sectoral framework for socio-economic resilience to climate change and extreme events in Europe (CROSSEU)” funded by the European Union Horizon Europe programme, under Grant agreement n°101081377.
How to cite: Micu, D., Amihaesei, V., Bothe, O., Bowyer, P., Cheval, S., Ontel, I., and Paraschiv, M.: Climate-driven conditions for snow avalanche activity in the Alps and Carpathian Mountains under climate change, EMS Annual Meeting 2025, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 7–12 Sep 2025, EMS2025-498, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2025-498, 2025.
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