A model-based assessment of the Greek National Energy and Climate Plan under a water-energy-food-emissions nexus context

Achieving climate-neutrality is a global imperative that demands coordinated efforts from both science and robust policies supporting a smooth transition across multiple sectors. However, the interdisciplinary and complex science-to-policy nature of this effort makes it particularly challenging for several countries, both in terms of planning and implementation, especially for countries that were not traditionally used to such holistic governance. There are several examples in the literature coupling different models representing different sectors (e.g. water-energy-food-emissions). However, the use of such integrated models assessing climate-neutrality and decarbonization pathways is rarer.
Greece is an example, and its preparedness to address such challenges is often debated. For the first time, we simulated Greece’s climate-neutrality efforts, within a water-energy-food-emissions nexus context, combining models such as LEAP (energy-emissions), FABLE Calculator (food and land use), and WaterReqGCH (water accounting tool). The Greek National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) was simulated, to evaluate its expected outcomes, and provide insights into its effectiveness. The goal of this novel approach is to provide useful insights on whether the NECP can achieve the climate neutrality goals, and how we can see it as an opportunity for a broader (nexus-oriented) sustainable transition.  The results indicate that the NECP, if implemented, has the potential to significantly reduce carbon emissions across all sectors of the economy (residential, industrial, transport, services, agriculture, and energy production). However, that would require its proper implementation, which in turn requires certain behavioural changes (e.g. adoption of technologies to improve energy efficiency and mixes of cleaner fuels).  Moreover, it falls short of achieving a more holistic sustainable transition if not considered as part of a broader suite of policies that can concurrently address agriculture, water resource management, and socio-economic dimensions.