Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Near-Future Wintertime Photovoltaic Power Potential in the Carpathian Region Based on CMIP6 GCM Outputs

To reduce dependence on fossil fuels, and achieve climate protection goals, the global renewable energy market is expanding rapidly. With ongoing technological advances, the use of solar power is increasing throughout the year, even during the boreal winter, when large-scale atmospheric circulation phenomena – such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) – are the main drivers of the climate of Europe. Consequently, the NAO has a significant impact on the variability of solar power, particularly in regions such as Southwestern Europe (Jerez et al., 2013).

In the Carpathian Region in East-Central Europe, the NAO has a significant influence on the climate in wintertime. Previous studies have shown that negative NAO phases correspond to cold and wet winters, while positive NAO phases are typically associated with warm and dry winters (Bartholy et al., 2010). However, the effect of NAO on the photovoltaic power potential (PVpot) has not been extensively studied in this region.

This study investigates the influence of the NAO on PVpot over East-Central Europe with a special focus on the Carpathian Region and examines its projected changes in wintertime. Since large-scale atmospheric processes can be reproduced by general circulation models (GCMs), we analyze the historical (1981-2010) and near-future (2031-2060) GCM outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) with horizontal resolutions around 1°. To assess the influence of the NAO on PVpot, “mobile NAO index” (Portis et al., 2001) will be obtained from the GCM outputs, which shows the most intense regions of the NAO. For comparison reasons, ERA5 reanalysis will also be used.

With the installed capacity of solar power is expected to continue increasing in East-Central Europe, our results provide an insight into how projected changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation may affect near-future photovoltaic power production.

 

The research was funded by the National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change (RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00014).

Bartholy et al. (2009). Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 7(3), 229–240.
Jerez et al. (2013). Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 52(10), 2204-2225.

Portis et al. (2001). Journal of Climate, 14(9), 2069–2078.