Vulnerability to water scarcity in metropolitan areas under climate change and development challenges

Water scarcity is one of the most critical impacts of climate change in many parts of the world. Water scarcity results from a combination of limited or uneven precipitation, excessive consumption, and inefficient management practices driven by various economic activities, and this often occurs in metropolitan areas. This study centres on the Brașov Metropolitan Region (BMR), situated in central Romania, a region undergoing a significant increase in average temperatures while maintaining relatively stable annual precipitation levels. Despite the overall consistency in precipitation amounts, climate projections and historical analyses indicate an intensification in the frequency and severity of extreme hydrometeorological events, notably heavy rainfall episodes and prolonged drought periods, which collectively pose growing challenges for sustainable water management in the area. At the same time, the BMR is defined by population increase, changing consumption patterns, urban expansion, and economic growth (including tourism intensification). All contribute to an increasing pressure on water resources, which become insufficient in some periods of the year. Different indicators were used to assess the water scarcity in the area of interest, such as the Falkenmark Indicator, Green-Blue Water Scarcity, and Water Stress Index, in the present climate and under different climate scenarios and socioeconomic perspectives. The study employs data and information from publicly available sources and data collected from local sources during the project implementation and the outcomes of hectometer scale earth systems modelling focusing on the floods that occurred in the past decade, leveraging available meter scale urban data sets available for the BMR. 

The results support the co-development of viable solutions that consider both the climatic and socioeconomic pressures and are firmly based on the long-term participatory approach involving the quadruple helix, such as policymakers, business, citizens (including vulnerable communities), and academia.

The quadruple helix perspective on water scarcity was given in the Living Lab Brașov, where the 27 stakeholders (including vulnerable groups) confirmed it as a critical challenge. Associated risks, drivers, and measures were identified to understand and address BMR's water scarcity. 

The results are obtained in the project Climate-Resilient Development Pathways in Metropolitan Regions of Europe (CARMINE), funded by the Εuropean Union under the Horizon Europe Programme (Grant agreement 101137851).