We see unprecedented weather causing widespread impacts across the world. In this talk, we provide an overview of methods that help anticipate unprecedented weather hazards that can contribute to stop being surprised. We then discuss disaster management and climate adaptation practices, their gaps, and how the methods to anticipate unprecedented weather may help build resilience. We stimulate thinking about transformative adaptation as a foundation for long-term resilience to unprecedented weather, supported by incremental adaptation through upgrading existing infrastructure, and reactive adaptation through short-term early action and disaster response. Because in the end, we should take responsibility to build resilience rather than being surprised by unprecedented weather.
How to cite: Kelder, T., Heinrich, D., Coughlan de Perez, E., Klok, L., Slater, L., Thompson, V., Dumont Goulart, H. M., Wilby, R. L., Stephens, L., Hawkins, E., de Vries, H., van der Wiel, K., Suárez Gutiérrez, L., Fischer, E., Burt, S., Carmona Baez, A., van Bueren, E., Schipper, L., and van den Hurk, B.: How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather, EMS Annual Meeting 2025, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 7–12 Sep 2025, EMS2025-728, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2025-728, 2025.