EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts
Vol. 22, EMS2025-728, 2025, updated on 30 Jun 2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2025-728
EMS Annual Meeting 2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather
Timo Kelder, Dorothy Heinrich, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Lisette Klok, Louise Slater, Vikki Thompson, Henrique Moreno Dumont Goulart, Robert Leonard Wilby, Liz Stephens, Ed Hawkins, Hylke de Vries, Karin van der Wiel, Laura Suárez Gutiérrez, Erich Fischer, Stephen Burt, Antonio Carmona Baez, Ellen van Bueren, Lisa Schipper, and Bart van den Hurk
Timo Kelder et al.

We see unprecedented weather causing widespread impacts across the world. In this talk, we provide an overview of methods that help anticipate unprecedented weather hazards that can contribute to stop being surprised. We then discuss disaster management and climate adaptation practices, their gaps, and how the methods to anticipate unprecedented weather may help build resilience. We stimulate thinking about transformative adaptation as a foundation for long-term resilience to unprecedented weather, supported by incremental adaptation through upgrading existing infrastructure, and reactive adaptation through short-term early action and disaster response. Because in the end, we should take responsibility to build resilience rather than being surprised by unprecedented weather.

How to cite: Kelder, T., Heinrich, D., Coughlan de Perez, E., Klok, L., Slater, L., Thompson, V., Dumont Goulart, H. M., Wilby, R. L., Stephens, L., Hawkins, E., de Vries, H., van der Wiel, K., Suárez Gutiérrez, L., Fischer, E., Burt, S., Carmona Baez, A., van Bueren, E., Schipper, L., and van den Hurk, B.: How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather, EMS Annual Meeting 2025, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 7–12 Sep 2025, EMS2025-728, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2025-728, 2025.

Recorded presentation

Show EMS2025-728 recording (11min) recording