Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Viticulture Through Microclimate Modeling

Viticulture faces considerable challenges from climate change, affecting the timing of vine growth, crop yields, and grape quality. This study investigates the contribution of microclimate modeling to enhanced vineyard management via the climate-water-soil-plant nexus. Downscaled high-resolution climate data (10 m spatial resolution), generated using the NicheMapR microclimate model with the STICS soil-crop model, allows for precise phenological and yield predictions across two Portuguese vineyards: Quinta do Bomfim (Douro wine region) and Herdade do Esporão (Alentejo wine region). The NicheMapR model simulates vineyard-scale parameters across historical climate conditions, spanning from 1981 to 2010, and projects these parameters into future climate scenarios, for the periods of 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. In accordance with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, a comprehensive analysis was conducted, examining the shifts in several key phenological stages—including flowering, fruit filling, peak leaf area index, physiological maturity, and harvest date—along with an assessment of the resulting yield changes. The results show a clear trend of advanced phenological timing, reduced growth durations, and considerable declines in crop production, especially within the context of the high-emission RCP8.5 climate change scenario. This research highlights the importance of utilising microclimate modeling as a tool to both understand and adapt to the changes resultant by a changing climate, which consequently provides a robust framework for creating more advanced precision agriculture strategies and further developing agronomic models. This approach addresses climate change risks through mitigation strategies, leading to improved vineyard productivity and a wine sector that is robust in the face of climate variability and change.

 

Acknowledgments: Research funded by Vine & Wine Portugal—Driving Sustainable Growth Through Smart Innovation, PRR & NextGeneration EU, Agendas Mobilizadoras para a Reindustrialização, Contract Nb. C644866286-011. We acknowledge FCT – Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UIDB/04033 and LA/P/0126/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/04033/2020).