Climate change projections for Montenegro and potential impacts on viticulture

Montenegro is located on the Balkan Peninsula. Near the coast and valleys, Mediterranean conditions have allowed Montenegro to develop a vinicultural heritage, which is currently threatened by climate change. This study aimed to expose the impacts of climate change on Montenegrin viticulture, using a high-resolution CHELSA database (≈ 1 km). Climate data was analysed for the historical period 1981-2010 and the future period of 2071-2100. The projections included 5 Global Climate Models (GCM) and 3 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. The selected indices for this analysis were GDD10, Winkler Index, Mean annual temperature, Growing season average temperature, Total annual precipitation and Total growing season precipitation. Across the different scenarios, the results show distinct differences concerning the Lake Skadar basin and the Montenegrin Coast, the warmest regions of Montenegro. The mean annual temperature increase will be from 2 °C to 5 °C, and the total annual precipitation might decrease to 250 mm per year (12%). For traditional viticulture, the maximum Climate normal of the Winkler index value is 2700 °C per year. For Montenegro, the Winkler Index will reach from 2800 to 3600 °C per year and is also predicted to expand the growing season, with an increasing number of days with an average temperature above 10°C. These results show that climate change is threatening Montenegrin viticulture, and so the application of adaptation measures in the sector is mandatory to preserve its legacy.  However, the results depict the emergence of new areas suitable for viticulture. Acknowledgements/Funding: This research was supported by FCT –Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the projects UID/04033: Centro de Investigação e de Tecnologias Agro-Ambientais e Biológicas and LA/P/0126/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0126/2020), and by the MONTEVITIS project “Integrating a comprehensive Europe-an approach for climate change mitigation and adaptation in Montenegro viticulture”, funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe, the Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (2021–2027), under grant agreement nº 101059461.