UP3.1 | Climate change detection, assessment of trends, variability and extremes
Climate change detection, assessment of trends, variability and extremes
Conveners: Yi Ling Hwong, Assaf Shmuel, Monika Lakatos, Jonathan Spinoni

Society will feel the impacts of climate change mainly through extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves and droughts, heavy rainfall and associated flooding, and extreme winds. Determining from the observational record whether there have been significant changes in the frequency, amplitude and persistence of extreme events poses considerable challenges. Beyond changes in magnitude, assessing how rapidly such changes are occurring is increasingly important for risk assessment and adaptation planning. Changes in the distributional tails of climate variables may not necessarily be coherent with the changes in their mean values. Also, attributing any such changes to natural or anthropogenic drivers is a challenge.

The aim of this session will be studies that bridge the spatial scales and reach the timescales of extreme events that impact all our lives. Papers are solicited on advancing the understanding of causes of observed changes in mean climate, in its variability and in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, including the detectability and emergence of these changes from background variability. In particular, papers are invited on trends in the regional climate of Europe, not just the mean, but variability and extremes, often for the latter measured through well-chosen indices. Contributions addressing uncertainties in climate modelling, particularly via model-observation comparisons in the detection and interpretation of climate trends and extremes, are also welcome.