A General Evolution Inference Framework for Close-In Small Planet Populations

The Kepler mission has revealed a diverse array of exoplanet populations, particularly among Neptune-size and smaller planets, providing critical constraints for models of planet formation and evolution. While traditional comparisons between theoretical models and observations have been largely qualitative and limited in scope, recent advances allow for more rigorous statistical approaches. This poster outlines the development of a Bayesian inference framework that enables a quantitative comparison between observed planet populations and theoretical predictions. By applying this approach to various models explaining the radius valley - including photoevaporation, core-powered mass-loss, and gas-poor accretion - we will uncover the primordial properties of planetary systems, infer model parameters best explaining observed features, and make comparisons between competing theories. Upcoming improvements will include incorporating data from radial velocity surveys, facilitating broader exploration of planet population structures across both mass-period and radius-period space for the first time.