IAHS-AISH Scientific Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Influence of risk perception on the impacts of multiple hydrological extremes

Maurizio Mazzoleni1,2, Elena Mondino2,3, Marlies Barendrecht1, Alessia Matanó1, and Anne Van Loon1
Maurizio Mazzoleni et al.
  • 1Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Institute for Environmental Studies, Water and Climate Risk, Amsterdam, Netherlands (maurizio.mazzoleni@geo.uu.se)
  • 2Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS) SE-751 05, Uppsala, Sweden
  • 3Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, SE-751 05, Uppsala, Sweden

A variety of socio-hydrological models have been proposed to represent the complex dynamics generated by the interplays between the society and hydroclimatic extremes. Yet, it is still unclear how different adaptation actions and risk perceptions can influence the impacts of multiple extremes over time. Here we present a new system-dynamics model to simulate the interplay between water management, droughts, floods, and society. The model accounts for four stylized types of societies based on idealized scenarios of risk perception and management responses: risk neglecting, risk controlling, risk downplaying, and risk monitoring. We perform two synthetic experiments to investigate the importance of risk-aversion, drought and flood awareness, and the co-existence of communities with different risk behaviors on the drought and flood losses. Our findings show that participatory approaches aimed at increasing societal awareness and preparedness can trigger adaptation actions for specific hydrological extremes, which in turn can exacerbate the impact of opposite natural hazards. Higher drought and flood losses are found when considering multiple co-existing risk behaviors. Our study emphasizes the importance of including the interplays between different risk perception behaviors and the occurrence of multiple hydroclimatic extremes in current modeling frameworks for improving water risk management strategies.

How to cite: Mazzoleni, M., Mondino, E., Barendrecht, M., Matanó, A., and Van Loon, A.: Influence of risk perception on the impacts of multiple hydrological extremes, IAHS-AISH Scientific Assembly 2022, Montpellier, France, 29 May–3 Jun 2022, IAHS2022-348, https://doi.org/10.5194/iahs2022-348, 2022.