Influence of risk perception on the impacts of multiple hydrological extremes

A variety of socio-hydrological models have been proposed to represent the complex dynamics generated by the interplays between the society and hydroclimatic extremes. Yet, it is still unclear how different adaptation actions and risk perceptions can influence the impacts of multiple extremes over time. Here we present a new system-dynamics model to simulate the interplay between water management, droughts, floods, and society. The model accounts for four stylized types of societies based on idealized scenarios of risk perception and management responses: risk neglecting, risk controlling, risk downplaying, and risk monitoring. We perform two synthetic experiments to investigate the importance of risk-aversion, drought and flood awareness, and the co-existence of communities with different risk behaviors on the drought and flood losses. Our findings show that participatory approaches aimed at increasing societal awareness and preparedness can trigger adaptation actions for specific hydrological extremes, which in turn can exacerbate the impact of opposite natural hazards. Higher drought and flood losses are found when considering multiple co-existing risk behaviors. Our study emphasizes the importance of including the interplays between different risk perception behaviors and the occurrence of multiple hydroclimatic extremes in current modeling frameworks for improving water risk management strategies.