Conflicts arising from the interdependency of air conditioning, energy supply, and heat risk in the United Kingdom

The UK government has pledged to decarbonise the UK’s power system by 2035. A key question is whether increasing cooling demand is a barrier. Through engagement with stakeholders, two contrasting perspectives emerge: (1) cooling load must be minimised to meet the decarbonisation target, or (2) peak heating loads will be much greater than peak cooling loads, so if renewable electrification of heating is achieved then there will be no additional challenge from cooling. These perspectives imply different policy priorities and sit at the intersection of emissions mitigation and climate adaptation.

Resolving the extent to which cooling load is a risk to decarbonised and stable electricity supply in the UK requires consideration of demand, generation, transmission and distribution. We present an exploration of the correlated weather dependence of renewable energy supply and cooling demand in the UK energy system. Climate data from ERA5 and CMIP6 is used to identify scenarios and weather patterns with the greatest peak residual demand from cooling. Peak cooling demand may occur in low-wind, high-solar conditions, but also depends on occupancy patterns and technology uptake which are uncertain. Based on this weather dependence, we will use energy system design tools to identify combinations of renewable generation capacity, storage capacity and demand which are able to meet peak cooling demand, which we compare with the UK’s targets. We hope this will lead to further exploration of whether renewable energy system designs optimised to meet heating demand are necessarily resilient to cooling demand, and to what extent air conditioning can be an option for health protection in a hotter UK.