ET4 | Integrated Modelling Techniques for Urban Energy Systems
Integrated Modelling Techniques for Urban Energy Systems
Convener: Charles Sekyere | Co-conveners: Cathy Li, Alvin Varquez
Orals
| Wed, 09 Jul, 11:00–13:00 (CEST)|Room Goudriaan 1+2
Posters
| Attendance Wed, 09 Jul, 17:15–18:30 (CEST) | Display Tue, 08 Jul, 13:30–Thu, 10 Jul, 13:30|Exchange Hall
Orals |
Wed, 11:00
Wed, 17:15
This session explores the use of integrated modeling techniques that combine data from energy, climate, and urban infrastructure systems. The goal is to guide urban energy planning towards greater efficiency and resilience. By leveraging models that account for both energy needs and climate factors, this session seeks to provide a comprehensive approach to future-proofing urban energy systems. It includes cross-sector modeling for optimal energy use and resilience, as well as the role of these models in practical urban energy planning.

Key Topics including:

• Integrated energy-climate modeling for urban planning.
• Cross-sector models combining data from energy, climate, and infrastructure.
• Practical applications of integrated models for optimizing urban energy systems.
• Use of modeling tools for future-proofing energy production and consumption in cities.

Orals: Wed, 9 Jul, 11:00–13:00 | Room Goudriaan 1+2

Chairpersons: Charles Sekyere, Alvin Varquez
Data driven and modeling solutions: urban climate, energy-systems and infrastructure
11:00–11:15
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ICUC12-1027
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Onsite presentation
Shaojuan Xu, Roland Haarbrink, and Thunyathep Santhanavanich

For many cities, the energy consumed for building heating and cooling is responsible for over half of the total CO2 emissions. The prevalence of low energy-efficient buildings, especially those predating the implementation of energy efficiency standards, poses a significant hurdle for cities striving to achieve climate neutrality. To make matters worse, increasing energy prices lead to numerous households being unable to afford adequate heating and cooling, jeopardising their health and well-being.

Our study uses aerial survey, thermal remote sensing, and city modelling techniques to build a 3D thermographic model, aiming to investigate building energy leaks at a city scale. First, we conducted aerial surveys at night during the cold season to avoid sun radiation and better capture building heat losses. Second, we used texture matching to attach thermal images on LoD2 building models as building textures. Thirdly, we integrate building renovation-related data as attributes of each building, such as energy consumption, building type, year of construction and renovation potential. Lastly, we will use 3DCityDB as the backend and CesiumJS as the front end to develop a 3D web client. Moreover, to tackle the energy poverty problem, we further integrate social-economic data and energy poverty indicators into our 3D WebGIS application.

Multi-stakeholders will use our modelling results to improve energy efficiency and reduce CO2 emissions. More specifically, the 3D model provides property owners with an intuitive way to detect heat loss, support their actions in building renovation, and reduce energy costs. Our modelling will support the city renewal offices for their building energy consultant services. The identified information on energy poverty households will be used by the social welfare offices for their social actions in low-income neighbourhoods.

The overall goal of our study is to support decision-makers in their action on building energy renovation and energy justice in practice.

How to cite: Xu, S., Haarbrink, R., and Santhanavanich, T.: A City-scale 3D Thermographic Model for Building Energy Efficiency and Energy Justice, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-1027, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-1027, 2025.

11:15–11:30
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ICUC12-822
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Onsite presentation
Facilitating Energy Transition through Urban Digital Twins: Modeling Future-Proofing Urban Energy System for Enhancing Urban Sustainability and Resilience in the Netherlands
(withdrawn)
Haoyang Tang
11:30–11:45
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ICUC12-714
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Onsite presentation
Alexander Los, Charalampos Andriotis, Rebecca Moody, Seyran Khademi, Pablo Morato Dominguez, Anna Maria Koniari, Isis van Rooy, and Hector Steenbergen-Cockerton

The accelerating urbanization shifts energy demand towards cities, which account already for ~75% of global energy consumption and ~70% of greenhouse gas emissions. Implementing effective building retrofit strategies is therefore key to reduce energy consumption and to decarbonize building operation, a priority reflected in existing policies and directives. In contrast to research efforts focused primarily on environmental and economic indicators, we introduce a building retrofit planning framework that combines socio-economic and environmental data within an AI computational pipeline for assessment, evaluation and decision-making.

Our framework identifies effective building envelope retrofit solutions considering building characteristics, climate projections, and socio-economic information collected from neighborhoods and residents. Besides single-building analysis, the optimization objectives and constraints additionally capture systemic effects, enabling coordinated decision-making at neighbourhood level. Energy efficiency and savings potential are quantified through physics-based models that use publicly available geospatial databases to extract building-specific geometric information, while information about the thermal properties of materials is derived from archetype classification data. To support large-scale decision-making, datasets generated by physics-based models are used to train a surrogate model for energy prediction, facilitating efficient evaluation of multiple retrofit scenarios.

To showcase the effectiveness of our building retrofit planning framework, we conduct a city-wide case study in Rotterdam. With the case study we introduce policymakers to the retrofit planning framework allowing them to designing equitable, actionable and sustainable building retrofit strategies at multiple scales. Our ultimate goal is to promote the adoption of sustainable retrofit packages at household and neighborhood levels,  accelerating carbon footprint reduction in urban environments.

How to cite: Los, A., Andriotis, C., Moody, R., Khademi, S., Morato Dominguez, P., Koniari, A. M., van Rooy, I., and Steenbergen-Cockerton, H.: Data-driven building retrofit planning considering socio-economic and environmental factors, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-714, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-714, 2025.

11:45–12:00
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ICUC12-209
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Online presentation
Omer Abedrabboh, Azhar Siddique, Shamjad P. Moosakutty, M. Rami Alfarra, and Christos Fountoukis

Cities in the Middle East face intensified heat stress and thermal discomfort due to rapid urbanization and global warming. Many Gulf cities, characterized by a hot arid climate (Köppen-Geiger: BWh), experience prolonged and extremely hot, dry summers exacerbated by the urban heat island effect. This poses challenges of extremely high cooling energy demand, increased outdoor thermal discomfort, and adverse impacts on well-being, energy use, economic growth, and the environment. Therefore, this research involves developing a microscale model for a dense mid-rise urban area in Doha, Qatar, characterized by limited vegetation and natural surfaces. The study begins by assessing the current outdoor thermal environment and thermal comfort for a typical mid-summer day (5th July). It then simulates future climate scenarios using projections from IPCC high (A2) emission scenarios for 2041–2069 and 2070–2099. The microclimate simulation software ENVI-met computes the outdoor thermal conditions, while its outputs are integrated into EnergyPlus to calculate localized building energy consumption. Subsequently, the research designs, models, and evaluates various heat mitigation scenarios based on four main strategies: (1) green infrastructure, including extensive and intensive green roofs and walls, increased tree canopy cover, and the introduction of a small urban park; (2) cool materials for roofs (α=0.8) and pavements (α=0.5); (3) urban morphology modifications, varying building heights (15, 25, 35 m) and form; and (4) shading structures installation in pedestrian areas. Later, combinations of the best-performing heat mitigation strategies are simulated to maximize the cooling effects. These strategies' cooling benefits are analyzed under current and future climate scenarios to identify optimal solutions for mitigating urban heat stress, reducing buildings’ energy consumption, and enhancing thermal comfort in hot arid urban environments.

Acknowledgments:

Research reported in this work was supported by the Qatar Research Development and Innovation Council (Grant: ARG01-0503-230061).

How to cite: Abedrabboh, O., Siddique, A., Moosakutty, S. P., Alfarra, M. R., and Fountoukis, C.: Integrated modelling of microclimate adaptation: Evaluating heat mitigation strategies for Doha, Qatar, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-209, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-209, 2025.

12:00–12:15
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ICUC12-630
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Onsite presentation
Alvin Christopher Galang Varquez, Mitsuna Sekiya, Do Ngoc Khanh, Atsushi Inagaki, Manabu Kanda, Tomohiko Ihara, and Norihiro Itsubo

To understand the impact of cities on the global climate, the level of representation of cities across time and space in climate models is crucial. Global spatiotemporally-varying anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) datasets are essential in urban climate modeling, urban climate-change investigations, and coupled building-energy model development. This work aims to develop an open-source tool for users to generate present and CMIP-consistent projections of AHE datasets at 1-km resolution. To obtain CMIP6-consistent projections of AHE maps at 5-year intervals from 2020, a workflow is constructed based on the following components: (1) top-down AH model, (2) an integrated assessment model (IAM), (3) 1-km scenario-based projections of population, (4) monthly statistics of daily temperature projections. The workflow begins by generating regional-level energy consumptions from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), one of the IAM's used to develop the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The modeled projections of energy consumption components are then allocated to countries based on their energy intensity, which relies on GDP data from GCAM and World Bank. They are then utilized as inputs in the AH4GUC model, the base model for mapping the AHE based on the top-down approach. Combining existing global projections of population, heating-degree/cooling-degree days projections, global road network datasets, and satellite datasets, 1-km projections of AHE are achieved.

How to cite: Varquez, A. C. G., Sekiya, M., Khanh, D. N., Inagaki, A., Kanda, M., Ihara, T., and Itsubo, N.: Integrated assessment model-driven 1-km anthropogenic heat emission generation tool, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-630, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-630, 2025.

12:15–12:30
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ICUC12-622
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Onsite presentation
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Charles Simpson, Giorgos Petrou, James Price, Sapna Halai, Oscar Brousse, Clare Heaviside, and Michael Davies

The UK government has pledged to decarbonise the UK’s power system by 2035. A key question is whether increasing cooling demand is a barrier. Through engagement with stakeholders, two contrasting perspectives emerge: (1) cooling load must be minimised to meet the decarbonisation target, or (2) peak heating loads will be much greater than peak cooling loads, so if renewable electrification of heating is achieved then there will be no additional challenge from cooling. These perspectives imply different policy priorities and sit at the intersection of emissions mitigation and climate adaptation.

Resolving the extent to which cooling load is a risk to decarbonised and stable electricity supply in the UK requires consideration of demand, generation, transmission and distribution. We present an exploration of the correlated weather dependence of renewable energy supply and cooling demand in the UK energy system. Climate data from ERA5 and CMIP6 is used to identify scenarios and weather patterns with the greatest peak residual demand from cooling. Peak cooling demand may occur in low-wind, high-solar conditions, but also depends on occupancy patterns and technology uptake which are uncertain. Based on this weather dependence, we will use energy system design tools to identify combinations of renewable generation capacity, storage capacity and demand which are able to meet peak cooling demand, which we compare with the UK’s targets. We hope this will lead to further exploration of whether renewable energy system designs optimised to meet heating demand are necessarily resilient to cooling demand, and to what extent air conditioning can be an option for health protection in a hotter UK.

How to cite: Simpson, C., Petrou, G., Price, J., Halai, S., Brousse, O., Heaviside, C., and Davies, M.: Conflicts arising from the interdependency of air conditioning, energy supply, and heat risk in the United Kingdom, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-622, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-622, 2025.

12:30–12:45
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ICUC12-606
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Onsite presentation
Yun fat Lam and Man Hei Jeffrey Chang

Urbanization transforms natural landscapes into built environments with impervious surfaces and walled structures. Strategic planning of new development areas (NDAs) emerges and contributes additional urban heat through building heat absorption and air-conditioning (AC) operation inside the existing community, which intensifies the urban heat island effect in the surrounding and downwind districts. In this study, an atmospheric model (WRF) coupled with a building energy model was used to evaluate how NDAs’ development may contribute to temperature changes in the existing downwind residential community of Hong Kong. Our projection showed that NDA development would induce the downwind district temperature (i.e., Sheung Shui) by 1.2 degrees C, which triggered extra AC-related electricity usage by 64.2%. For mitigation strategies, our behaviour model illustrated up to 67% of energy and 0.06 ton-CO2-e per capita greenhouse gases could be reduced through occupant behavioural changes, which indicated the importance of how occupant behavioural intervention and advanced urban planning can better shape our future low-carbon cities.

 

Keywords: Urban heat; Building occupant behaviour; Spatiotemporal electricity usage; Low-carbon society; CMIP6 future climate projection

How to cite: Lam, Y. F. and Chang, M. H. J.: Effect of New Urban Development on Heat-energy-carbon Emission in Hong Kong, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-606, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-606, 2025.

12:45–13:00
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ICUC12-126
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Online presentation
Kaiyu Chen

As urbanization accelerates globally, cities play a crucial role in shaping the environmental impacts of the built environment, particularly in terms of carbon emissions. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of urban development, with a focus on urban infrastructure, on carbon emission intensity (CEI) across Chinese cities, using both global and local regression models. The global regression model identifies per capita road area, economic growth, and industrial structure as key factors in reducing CEI. The Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model further reveals significant spatial heterogeneity in these impacts. Economic growth consistently shows a negative relationship with CEI across all cities, with the strongest effects in the northernmost regions. In contrast, per capita emissions have a consistently positive association with CEI, especially in northeastern cities. Interestingly, other infrastructure-related factors exhibit bidirectional effects depending on the region: for example, per capita road area increases CEI in western cities but reduces it in northeastern regions, while per capita green area raises CEI in eastern cities but decreases it in the west. These findings highlight the need for region-specific policy interventions to effectively manage urban growth and reduce carbon emissions within the built environment, thereby contributing to China's low-carbon economy goals and supporting global efforts to address climate change.

How to cite: Chen, K.: Spatial Variations in the Impact of Urban Infrastructure on City-Level Carbon Emission Intensity in China: A Geographically Weighted Regression Approach, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-126, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-126, 2025.

Posters: Wed, 9 Jul, 17:15–18:30 | Exchange Hall

Display time: Tue, 8 Jul, 13:30–Thu, 10 Jul, 13:30
Chairpersons: Charles Sekyere, Alvin Varquez
Urban climate-energy systems, and environment interaction
E67
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ICUC12-234
Jonas Blancke, Matthias Demuzere, and Bart Pannemans

Climate change, including the increasing number and intensity of extreme weather events, is putting significant pressure on the built environment, demanding climate-resilient design approaches. Building simulations rely on weather files to provide meteorological input, with Typical Meteorological Years (TMYs) being widely used due to their simplicity and widespread availability. However, TMYs represent average historic weather and are therefore not designed to investigate the impact of future climate and extremes. Moreover, available weather files usually overlook local effects like topography and urban heat islands.

This study proposes a solution to the previously outlined limitations by introducing a user-friendly approach to generating future extreme weather files. It selects CMIP6 climate projections for defined warming scenarios, which are combined with ERA5-Land data to identify past analogues for future conditions, creating ensembles of future hourly meteorological data. These ensembles are transformed into extreme weather files tailored to the design criteria (e.g. heat wave with specific return period) and refined by an urban microclimate model for local conditions. The proposed method offers key advantages, including the ability to address various types of future extreme hazards, the adaptability to any location, and the incorporation of urban microclimate effects. This enables robust decision making for climate-resilient urban planning.

How to cite: Blancke, J., Demuzere, M., and Pannemans, B.: Generating future extreme weather scenarios for urban impact simulations, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-234, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-234, 2025.

E68
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ICUC12-74
Renfeng Wang and Chao Ren

Cities play a pivotal role in achieving the global common goals for carbon peak and neutrality, encompassing energy conservation, emission reduction, sustainable utilization of urban ecosystems, urban spatial configuration, and setting low-carbon development trajectories. As interest in urban contributions to global climate change adaptation and mitigation intensifies, the accounting, spatial characterization, and prediction of urban carbon emissions are gaining increased attention. However, constrained by limited long-term reliable data, the vast uncertainties and inconsistencies caused by separate carbon accounting, characterization and prediction paradigms, and the decoupling effects of socio-economic factors towards carbon emissions, there is an urgent need for an integrated research paradigm that accomplishes carbon emission accounting, spatial characterization, and prediction simultaneously. This study reviews the progress in traditional carbon emission accounting, spatialization, and prediction research, as well as their relationship with land use /land cover (LULC).  Then the study comprehensively assesses the relationship between detailed LULC categories and corresponding sectoral carbon emissions across China's prefecture-level cities based on diversified LULC products and sectoral carbon emission inventory. The results reveal a significant correlation between different forms/functions of urban spaces and carbon emissions, as well as the spatial landscape of carbon emissions within the city. Lastly, an evidence-based landscape zoning system—Local Energy Zone (LEZ), is proposed for urban carbon accounting, characterization, and forecasting. This novel zoning scheme addresses the limitations of traditional carbon emission studies and offers new tools and perspectives for global urban carbon footprint and sustainable development research.

How to cite: Wang, R. and Ren, C.: Local Energy Zone for Urban Carbon Emissions Studies – Accounting, Characterization and Prediction, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-74, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-74, 2025.

E69
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ICUC12-910
Development of an urban transport model (MATSDA) for assessing implications of people’s movement on urban energy use
(withdrawn)
Tiancheng Ma, Denise Hertwig, Megan McGrory, Matthew Paskin, and Sue Grimmond
E70
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ICUC12-1011
Yong Xu, seyedreza omranian, cedric vuye, and zhi cao

Abstract: With the rapid pace of urbanization, the urban heat island (UHI) effect has become a significant challenge faced by most cities globally, especially in warmer climate regions. In response to this issue, the use of high-albedo surface materials has gained attention as an effective urban climate adaptation strategy. High-albedo surfaces reflect more solar radiation, reducing heat absorption by the urban environment, and thereby helping to lower local temperatures. This study evaluated the potential effects of applying high-albedo surfaces on the outdoor thermal environments in various local climate zones (LCZs) within Antwerp by utilizing high-resolution meteorological data, satellite imagery, and Urban Weather Generator (UWG). The analysis is divided into two parts. First, Urban climate modeling identified notable day-night fluctuations in UHI intensity across LCZs. In August, LCZ2 (open mid-rise) recorded the highest daytime heat buildup, peaking at 1.5°C above rural temperatures by midday, with a subsequent delay in nighttime cooling. Conversely, December exhibited more consistent UHI patterns across all zones, with reduced temperature variability. This highlights the critical role of solar exposure and heat retention in compact urban morphologies. Second, simulations across multiple LCZs evaluated the cooling potential of incorporating high-albedo materials tailored to specific urban contexts. In LCZ2 (open mid-rise), characterized by intense daytime heat accumulation, road-focused enhancements reduced peak surface temperatures by 2.1°C, with the most significant cooling observed between 10:00–15:00 in August. These findings stress the importance of context-specific strategies: prioritizing road surface modification for daytime heat reduction in open mid-rise zones like LCZ2 while adopting integrated approaches in other LCZs to achieve thermal resilience across varying time scales. This research provides insights for optimizing the application of high-albedo materials across diverse urban climates, offering tailored solutions to improve microclimates and support sustainable urban development.

Keywords: UHI, High-Albedo Surfaces, Local Climate Zone, Thermal Environment, Climate Adaptation Strategies

How to cite: Xu, Y., omranian, S., vuye, C., and cao, Z.: Analyzing the Impacts of High-Albedo Surfaces on Outdoor Thermal Environments in Antwerp Within the Local Climate Zone Framework, 12th International Conference on Urban Climate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 7–11 Jul 2025, ICUC12-1011, https://doi.org/10.5194/icuc12-1011, 2025.

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