Local Energy Zone for Urban Carbon Emissions Studies – Accounting, Characterization and Prediction

Cities play a pivotal role in achieving the global common goals for carbon peak and neutrality, encompassing energy conservation, emission reduction, sustainable utilization of urban ecosystems, urban spatial configuration, and setting low-carbon development trajectories. As interest in urban contributions to global climate change adaptation and mitigation intensifies, the accounting, spatial characterization, and prediction of urban carbon emissions are gaining increased attention. However, constrained by limited long-term reliable data, the vast uncertainties and inconsistencies caused by separate carbon accounting, characterization and prediction paradigms, and the decoupling effects of socio-economic factors towards carbon emissions, there is an urgent need for an integrated research paradigm that accomplishes carbon emission accounting, spatial characterization, and prediction simultaneously. This study reviews the progress in traditional carbon emission accounting, spatialization, and prediction research, as well as their relationship with land use /land cover (LULC).  Then the study comprehensively assesses the relationship between detailed LULC categories and corresponding sectoral carbon emissions across China's prefecture-level cities based on diversified LULC products and sectoral carbon emission inventory. The results reveal a significant correlation between different forms/functions of urban spaces and carbon emissions, as well as the spatial landscape of carbon emissions within the city. Lastly, an evidence-based landscape zoning system—Local Energy Zone (LEZ), is proposed for urban carbon accounting, characterization, and forecasting. This novel zoning scheme addresses the limitations of traditional carbon emission studies and offers new tools and perspectives for global urban carbon footprint and sustainable development research.