1,2,5,3,6,2,1,3- 1Liege University, Modeling for aquatic systems research group, Astrophysics, Geophysics and Oceanography Department, Liege, Belgium (mgregoire@uliege.be)
- 2OGS, Italy
- 3Mercator Ocean International
- 4MET Office, UK
- 5BSH, Germany
- 6Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Norway
The prediction of marine biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems (the green ocean) has
made significant progresses during the last two decades. The green ocean is now
forecasted every day and multi-decadal reanalyses and projections are routinely
produced with an always increasing resolution and over longer periods. The quality of
the green ocean products has increased thanks to the improved model formulations,
resolution and data assimilation systems. Here we will review the progress in our
capabilities to predict the green ocean in the frame of the European Copernicus
Marine Service (CMS) since its start in 2014 and for the 5 European seas, the Arctic
and Global oceans. The evolutions of the prediction systems (e.g. model formulations,
data assimilation, coupling with the physics and at the interfaces) and delivered
products (e.g. resolution, quality assessment, adequacy to support the development of
indicators and the decision-making process) will be reviewed. The predictability
drivers and relevant time scales for marine biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems
predictions will be discussed. Recommendations for future developments will be
proposed based on a SWOT analysis of current CMS green ocean prediction systems
and products.
How to cite: Grégoire, M., Cossarini, G., Derval, C., Kay, S., Gutknecht, E., Lamouroux, J., Morrison, H., Perruche, C., Samuelsen, A., Spruch, L., Teruzzi, A., Vandenbulcke, L., Wakamatsu, T., and Von Schuckmann, K.: Predicting the green ocean: main achievements from the Copernicus Marine Service biogeochemical models and perspectives., One Ocean Science Congress 2025, Nice, France, 3–6 Jun 2025, OOS2025-682, https://doi.org/10.5194/oos2025-682, 2025.
