"Towards Resilient Coastal Societies: The Black Sea Digital Twin as a Model for Ecosystem and Socio-Economic Scenario Planning"

Digital ocean twins represent a transformative tool for integrating marine ecosystem models, observational data, and direct stakeholder input to develop robust management strategies. Here, we introduce one of the first digital twins for the Black Sea—a pioneering model designed to deepen our understanding of this unique ecosystem, forecast its response to climate change and environmental stressors, and evaluate alternative socio-economic scenarios to support informed decision-making.

The Black Sea digital twin includes a comprehensive ensemble of integrated simulations and resilience assessments, offering insights into ecosystem states and the risks to the valuable services they provide. Utilizing machine learning and Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) methodologies, it functions as a sophisticated decision-support system. This model tests a variety of socio-economic and blue economy scenarios, incorporating analyses of critical sectors and feedback from stakeholders through basin-wide living labs.

Through this innovative digital twin, we aim to define a "safe operating space" for the Black Sea—where ecosystem services are preserved and understood, enabling resilient and sustainable coastal societies. The model not only enhances our capacity to predict future changes but also serves as a foundation for adaptive management in a region undergoing rapid environmental shifts.