Köppen-Geiger Climate Classifications in Iberia, Greece, and Cyprus under climate change projections with CMIP6 Experiments

The effects of climate change are becoming more noticeable in communities around the world. These implications include altered weather patterns, changes in the dynamics of wildlife and flora, and variations in the quality, accessibility, and availability of water and food resources. In the foreseeable future, regional variations in how climate change affects air quality are also expected. It is anticipated that climate change will increase ground-level ozone concentrations, increase the number of individuals exposed to allergens such as pollen, and degrade air quality in numerous parts of the globe. It might also reduce visibility, which would make it difficult to see far away and interfere with mobility. Variations in the ambient concentrations of air contaminants can also affect indoor air quality.

A helpful tool for comprehending and characterizing global climate types is the Köppen-Geiger (KG) classification system. This work analyses the application of the KG classification system to the latest CMIP6 experiments. A baseline for the historical era 1970–2000 was established using the WorldClim dataset and an ensemble of 14 global climate models was used to evaluate future climate variability in Iberia, Greece, and Cyprus from 2041 to 2060. These projections are based on many scenarios of human-induced radiative forcing, and the novel Shared Socioeconomical Pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.

The Iberian Peninsula and Cyprus are predicted to experience dramatic changes based on the results; temperate (C) and arid (B) regions should experience a significant shift from a moderate summer temperature (Csb) to a hot summer climate (Csa). The shift from BSk (semi-arid cold) to BSh (semi-arid hot), the loss of Cfb (tempered oceanic), and the rise in Csa (hot-summer Mediterranean) climate types are all expected to affect Greece's climate.

Since high temperatures can have a major impact on indoor air quality, a rise in ambient air pollutants, like particulate matter and ozone, may result in increased exposure indoors. Additionally, plants, trees, and crops can be harmed by air pollution. For example, plants exposed to elevated levels of ground-level ozone exhibit reduced photosynthetic activity, slower growth rates, and increased susceptibility to diseases. On the other hand, the frequency and duration of wildfires have increased due to climate change. Smoke from wildfires contaminates the air, reducing visibility and disrupting outdoor activities. It can also reach other areas hundreds of miles downwind. Respiratory conditions like bronchitis, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) might deteriorate when humans are exposed to smoke from wildfires. The growing urgency of the aforementioned hazards highlights the need for suitable policies and activities for climate change adaptation and mitigation, to counteract the anticipated adverse conditions.

 

Acknowledgments: This research was funded by National Funds by FCT ‒ Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UIDB/04033/2020. This research was supported under the Breath IN Erasmus+ project 2023-1-PT01-KA220_HED-00153118.