The Eastern Mediterranean is a unique region for air pollution because it is the crossroads between three continents exchanging air pollution transported between Africa, Asia, and Europe. Here, we investigated urban particulate matter (PM) carbonaceous and water-soluble ions for eleven months in Amman, Jordan. The PM2.5 total carbon (TC) annual mean was 7.6±3.6 µg/m3 (organic carbon (OC) 5.9±2.8 µg/m3 and elemental carbon (EC) 1.7±1.1 µg/m3), which was about 16.3% of the PM2.5. The PM10 TC annual mean was 8.4±3.9 µg/m3 (OC 6.5 ± 3.1 µg/m3 and elemental carbon (EC) 11.9±1.1µg/m3), about 13.3% of the PM10. The PM2.5 total water-soluble ions (TI) annual mean was 7.9±1.9 µg/m3(about 16.9%), and that of the PM10 was 10.1±2.8 µg/m3 (about 16.0%). The minor ions (F-, NO2-, Br-, and PO43-) constituted less than 1% in the PM fractions. The significant fraction was for SO42- (PM2.5 4.7±1.6 µg/m3 (10.0%) and PM10 5.3±1.9 µg/m3 (8.3%)). The NH4+ had higher amounts of PM2.5 (1.3±0.6 µg/m3; 2.7%) than that PM10 (0.9±0.4 µg/m3; 1.4%). During sand and dust storm (SDS) events, TC, Cl-, and NO3- were doubled in both PM2.5 and PM10, SO42- did not increase significantly, and NH4+ slightly decreased. Regression analysis revealed: (1) carbonaceous aerosols in Amman come equally from primary and secondary sources, (2) about 50% of the OC came from non-combustion sources, (3) traffic emissions dominate the PM, (4) agricultural sources have a negligible effect, (5) SO42- is completely neutralized by NH4+ in the PM2.5 but there could be additional reactions involved in the PM10, and (6) (NH4)2SO4, was the major species formed by SO42-and NH4+ instead of NH4HSO4.
How to cite: Al-Hunaiti, A., Bakri, Z., Li, X., Duan, L., Al-Abdallat, A., Alastuey, A., Viana, M., Arar, S., Petäjä, T., and Hussein, T.: Characterization of Water-Soluble Inorganic Ions and Carbonaceous Aerosols in the Urban Atmosphere in Amman, Jordan, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-142, 2024.
Recently, there has been increasing attention on the complex interactions among environmental and climatic stressors, including heatwaves, droughts, and poor air quality or fires, which are intensified by climate change. These stressors, classically considered individually, are now understood to be interconnected phenomena with far-reaching global impacts. Moreover, the cumulative effects of these events have often higher impacts than isolated events, with far-reaching consequences for ecosystems, economies, and public health on a global scale. This study provides a detailed examination of compound events involving heatwaves, droughts, fires, and poor air quality worldwide, elucidating their interconnected nature, triggering drivers, and consequences for ecosystems and societies.
To conduct this analysis, meteorological data from ERA5 were utilized to identify droughts using the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and heatwaves, while Fire Radiative Power (FRP) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard Terra and Aqua satellites was selected, along with air quality data (specifically particulate matter PM2.5) obtained from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global reanalysis (EAC4). Compound events were identified based on the detection of pollution events, heatwaves, droughts, or FRP occurring in various combinations.
The analysis revealed hotspots of compound events concentrated in different regions worldwide. For example, instances of pollution and heatwaves were predominantly observed in India, the Arabian Peninsula, and eastern China, while heatwaves and fires were more common in the Brazilian Cerrado, northern Australia, and South African Savannas. The Mediterranean region is particularly affected by hot and dry events, whereas Greece, Portugal, and Italy are those more affected by the compound of hot, dry, fire and pollution hazards. The impacts of single and simultaneous occurrences of hot, dry, and fire events on particulate matter PM2.5 levels varied significantly by continent, with North America and Asia experiencing notably higher pollution levels during simultaneous events compared to isolated pollution events.
The intersection of compound hot and dry events with wildfires presents a significant public health challenge, highlighting the interrelation of climate change, extreme weather events, and air pollution. Addressing these complex relationships requires comprehensive strategies that integrate climate resilience, wildfire management, and air quality regulations to protect human health and well-being in the face of a changing climate.
This work was funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020). This work was performed under the scope of project https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.09185.PTDC (DHEFEUS) and supported by national funds through FCT. DL and AR acknowledge FCT I.P./MCTES (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) for the FCT https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.03183.CEECIND/CP1715/CT0004 and https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.01167.CEECIND/CP1722/CT0006, respectively.
How to cite: Bento, V. A., Lima, D. C. A., Careto, J. A., and Russo, A.: Global Compound Events Interplay: Impacts on Fires and Air Pollution, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-56, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-56, 2024.
Air pollution has significant and severe impacts on human health, the environment, materials, and the economy, emerging as a key issue for microclimate and air quality regulation. Hence, the spatial and temporal characterization of air pollutants and their relationship with meteorological constraining factors is of utmost importance, particularly under a climate change perspective. Air pollutants’ spatial and temporal characterization over the Iberian Peninsula is performed, focusing particularly on the emissions of Particulate Matter (PM) and Carbon Monoxide (CM) during wildfire events in 2012-2023. This will be performed based on the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring (CAMS) data, to profit from the added value of having reliable and gridded information on the atmosphere composition and its related processes, anywhere in the world. After a preliminary analysis, air quality (AQ) forecasts are produced to model AQ environmental emergencies. The rationale is to develop a methodology to forecast air pollutants' exceedances, without being limited to areas closer to monitoring AQ stations. To achieve this goal, Machine Learning (ML) methods are applied to find the most efficient model architecture predicting pollutants’ concentration a few days ahead.
Space-time patterns reveal a good agreement between CAMS data and extreme fire events, with this agreement being clearer for maximum concentrations measured by CAMS pollutants such as CO, PM10, and PM2.5, as well as the exceedances of pollutant thresholds during fire activity periods, over affected regions. ML models reveal coefficient of determination (R) values ranging from 0.76 to 0.85 for their forecasts, revealing high accuracy in predicting PM10 exceedances, with precision levels up to 0.91.
Model results reveal the potential to develop an air quality tool over regions less covered by the national air quality monitoring network.
Acknowledgements: This study is partially supported by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES on behalf of DHEFEUS -2022.09185.PTDC and the project FAIR- 2022.01660.PTDC).
How to cite: Durao, R., Gouveia, C., Simões, M., Brito, A., and Russo, A.: Space-time characterization of fire-related air pollutants over Portugal., 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-89, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-89, 2024.
Air quality across Europe has generally improved in recent decades due to stricter regulations. However, the European Environment Agency (EEA) also highlight that the number of premature deaths in Europe due to air pollution is still far too high. Moreover, the impacts of wildfire smoke, often coupled with the combined effects of droughts and heatwaves in the region, are often disregarded. With the projected rise in wildfires due to climate change, wildfire smoke's contribution to air quality degradation in the Mediterranean is likely to grow in the coming years.
This study focuses on the Mediterranean region, relying on air quality data (specifically particulate matter PM2.5) obtained from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) European reanalysis from 2013 to 2023 at 0.1º resolution to assess the impact of wildfire smoke on PM2.5 concentrations. Additionally, meteorological data from ERA5 were utilized to identify heatwaves and droughts (as depicted by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). Our findings suggest that wildfire smoke has substantially influenced PM2.5 trends across the Mediterranean. This influence could be eroding past air quality improvements, potentially equivalent to several years of progress lost.
The intersection of wildfire pollution and extreme events presents a critical public health challenge, highlighting the need to address these complex relationships when developing comprehensive strategies and regulations to protect human health and well-being in the context of a changing climate.
This work was funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020). This work was performed under the scope of project https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.09185.PTDC (DHEFEUS) and supported by national funds through FCT. DL and AR acknowledge FCT I.P./MCTES (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) for the FCT https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.03183.CEECIND/CP1715/CT0004 and https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.01167.CEECIND/CP1722/CT0006, respectively.
How to cite: Russo, A., A. Bento, V., Brito, A., C.A. Lima, D., A.M. Careto, J., and Durão, R.: The contribution of wildfires to PM2.5 trends in the Mediterranean and their relation to national-level extreme events, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-85, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-85, 2024.
Over the past two decades, the Mediterranean region has experienced a rapid increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of temperature-related extremes. These conditions have led to a rise in heat stress, posing serious threats to human health, especially when combined with high levels of humidity in the atmosphere. These impacts are particularly concerning for vulnerable population groups, such as seniors, who are more susceptible to the adverse effects of extreme moist heat. Investigating the effects of moist heat on mortality is essential for comprehending the broader impacts of climate change. Such research is critical for identifying how rising temperatures in conjunction with humidity extremes affect human health, enabling thus better preparation and response strategies to mitigate these adverse effects.
In this direction, several studies employ humidity metrics, such as relative humidity and wet bulb temperature, to explore their relationship with epidemiological data. However, the results often remain inconclusive. The inverse relationship between temperature and relative humidity can obscure the impact of temperature on health outcomes, leading to ambiguous results in assessing heat-health exposure. To overcome these limitations, in this study, we concentrate on Cyprus, a Mediterranean island, and explore the relationship between temperatures and vapour pressure in conjunction with mortality data.
The meteorological data were initially derived from a high spatial resolution (5.5km x 5.5km) reanalysis, namely the Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis (CERRA), at hourly temporal resolution. Subsequently, they were aggregated across the five districts of Cyprus. Daily mortality counts, including deaths attributed to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases (ICD10 codes: I00-I99 and J00-J99), were analyzed over a nearly two-decade period (2004-2019). Distributed Lag non-Linear models (DLNMs) within the general framework of Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) were applied to the five districts of Cyprus. This modelling framework produces estimates of the temporally distributed combined effect of temperature and vapour pressure on mortality rate.
We demonstrate how the health risks vary across the elderly population in Cyprus, specifically focusing on individuals aged over 65 years, aggregated without gender distinction. Our findings suggest that there is a significant link between environmental conditions and the mortality rate of individuals aged 65 and above, a group that has been repeatedly identified as highly vulnerable. The combined effect of high temperatures and vapour pressure levels significantly increases the health risk attributed to elderly groups, in agreement with thermo-physiological evidence.
How to cite: Tzyrkalli, A., Giannaros, C., and Economou, T.: Influence of humidity and temperature on mortality in the Mediterranean, a case study for Cyprus, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-112, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-112, 2024.
Greater Cairo, the most populous megacity in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region, faces severe aerosol pollution, posing a significant threat to public health. Despite its impact, the main sources of pollution remain under-characterized due to sparse atmospheric observations. To address this gap, we conducted a continuous two-month field study at an urban background site, documenting the first chemical and physical properties of submicron aerosols (PM1). We found that crustal material from both desert dust and traffic dust resuspension accounted for as much as 24% of the total PM1 mass, increasing to 66% during desert dust events—a level unusually high for urban settings. Simultaneously, our data indicated reductions in black carbon and ammonium sulfate levels, suggesting successful emission reductions through local and regional mitigation efforts. The diurnal patterns of carbonaceous aerosols were linked to peak emissions from local traffic during rush hours and from open biomass burning at night. Contrarily, our analysis identified unexpectedly high levels of semi-volatile ammonium chloride (NH4Cl) from local open biomass and waste burning, emerging as the predominant PM1 chemical species in Cairo. Its formation at night significantly influenced morning aerosol water uptake, thereby playing a crucial role in the formation of persistent urban haze. These findings not only confirm the ongoing presence of a significant dust reservoir over Cairo but also reveal a new source of highly hygroscopic semi-volatile inorganic salts, leading to a unique type of urban haze. This haze, characterized by major contributions from both submicron and supermicron particle modes, highlights the complex implications of heterogeneous chemical transformations of air pollutants in urban settings, emphasizing the need for interdisciplinary research to understand and mitigate these impacts in the Mediterranean and similar regions. Full details are available in our publication in Christodoulou et al., 2024.
Christodoulou, A., Bezantakos, S., Bourtsoukidis, E., Stavroulas, I., Pikridas, M., Oikonomou, K., Iakovides, M., Hassan, S. K., Boraiy, M., El-Nazer, M., Wheida, A., Abdelwahab, M., Sarda-Estève, R., Rigler, M., Biskos, G., Afif, C., Borbon, A., Vrekoussis, M., Mihalopoulos, N., Sauvage, S., and Sciare, J.: Submicron aerosol pollution in Greater Cairo (Egypt): A new type of urban haze?, Environ. Int., 186, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2024.108610, 2024.
How to cite: Christodoulou, A., Bezantakos, S., Bourtsoukidis, E., Stavroulas, I., Afif, C., Borbon, A., Vrekoussis, M., Mihalopoulos, N., Sauvage, S., and Sciare, J. and the POLCAIR Team and Partners: Submicron aerosol pollution in Greater Cairo (Egypt): A new type of urban haze?, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-82, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-82, 2024.
Southern European cities face increasing challenges from urban overheating and evolving climate hazards such as heatwaves and droughts. Vegetated parks can mitigate urban climate impacts, providing significant relief. This study, part of the EU Horizon project DISTENDER, assesses the urban heat island (UHI) effect and intra-urban thermal variations for Guimarães, Portugal, and Turin, Italy. First, thermal patterns and the cooling effects of green spaces during typical summer conditions and extreme heat and drought events were derived using remotely-sensed Land Surface Temperatures (LST) from Landsat 8/9 and MODIS Aqua/Terra satellites. Next, multi-year (1981 – 2049) high-resolution urban simulations, were conducted using the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS). These simulations were forced with statistically downscaled data from three climate models (CanESM5, EC-EARTH3, MPI-ESM1-2-HR) under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, 5-8.5). Results indicate that city centres are up to 4 °C hotter than surrounding natural areas. While UHI intensity is projected to remain relatively stable throughout the years, air temperatures are expected to rise by approximately 2.0 °C for Guimarães and 1.6 °C for Turin under the high emission scenario by the 2050s. These findings underscore the need for urban planning strategies to mitigate future heat risks in Southern European cities.
How to cite: Agathangelidis, I., Cartalis, C., Polydoros, A., Philippopoulos, K., and Koutroumanou-Kontosi, K.: Current Urban Thermal Characteristics and Future Projections in the Mediterranean Basin: Case Studies From Guimarães, Portugal, and Turin, Italy Using Remote Sensing and the SUEWS Model, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-78, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-78, 2024.
Heat-health action plans (HHAPs) aim at minimizing the negative impact of heat on human health. They follow a comprehensive approach that combines short-, medium- and long-term health prevention activities. Heat-health warning systems (HHWSs) constitute an integral part of HHAPs, providing alerts that target the initiation of autonomous (e.g. reduced physical activity) and coordinated (e.g. operation of cooling centers) intervention measures for health protection. The implementation of national and regional HHWS in Europe, but also worldwide, has proven to be successful in reducing heat-related mortality. Yet, further advancements, especially with respect to the warning protocol definition and the communication of warnings, are necessary to comprehensively characterize and deal with heat and its impact on human health. The current work provides insights in relation to these issues based on a prototype HHWS developed in the framework of the HEAT-ALARM research project. Employing Greece as a test bed, the HEAT-ALARM HHWS is operated under a pilot mode during the warm period (April-October) of 2024. The system provides human-biometeorological-based warnings along with recommendations for a health protective behavior for the next three days in 72 regional units (RUs) of the country and for six population subsets (men and women adults and seniors, as well as men and women working outdoors), based on: (i) the association of the forecasted daily maximum mPET (modified physiologically equivalent temperature) and relative mortality risk, accounting for short-term acclimatization effects, and (ii) the forecasted nighttime temperatures, accounting for urban effects in those RUs encompassing the cities of Athens and Thessaloniki, which together accommodate almost one fourth of the total Greece population. Additional risk factors, such as the duration of mPET-based heat stress exposure, are provided as supplementary information, while the choice of the targeted populations aims at accounting for sex and age equity in heat prevention planning, as well as for the increased sensitivity of outdoor workforce to thermo-physiological heat stress. The meteorological data used in the above warning protocol are derived from high resolution (≤ 2 km) weather forecasting models at population-weighted spatial scales to better reflect the thermal environment experienced by the people in each RU. When it is necessary, all heat-health warning-related information is communicated directly to various stakeholders (e.g. Hellenic Red Cross) via automated e-mails, as well as internally with operational forecasters of the METEO Unit at the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), which operates a dedicated web page (www.meteo.gr) for issuing operational weather forecasts. The NOA/METEO website is visited by more than 350,000 visitors per day, ensuring thus the effective dissemination of the HEAT-ALARM heat-health warnings to end-users (e.g. construction workers) and/or their advocates (e.g. care facilities for the elderly), when needed.
How to cite: Galanaki, E., Giannaros, C., Agathangelidis, I., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., and Matzarakis, A.: Heat-health warning systems: Warning protocol definition and communication aspects, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-18, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-18, 2024.
Fine aerosol particles (PM2.5) in the mediterranean, urban area of Athens (Gr) during a contemporary year free of anthropogenic activity restrictions (2019) is the focus of this study. The numerical atmospheric model system used (WRF/ Episode-CityChem) can describe the local atmospheric conditions (in 1 km resolution), with additional features to represent the urban canyon pollutant dispersion and local photochemistry in the intra-urban scale (100 m resolution). An extensive evaluation of both models’ performance is assessed through comparisons with in situ measurements from multiple National networks, including the weather station network operated by the METEO unit, and the state-of-the-art air pollution equipment by the Ypatia unit at the National Observatory of Athens, as well as the air quality networks of Panacea-RI and of the Greek State. A multi-parametric comparison against measurements gave useful insights and opportunities for optimization of models’ setup. Indicatively, a series of single day meteorological runs would result in atmospheric (both meteorological and air quality) predictions of similar accuracy than the a sequence of 3-day simulations, saving substantial computational time and human effort. Further, a separate evaluation for precipitation-impacted periods was performed, indicating that both the rainy meteorological conditions and the wet deposition processes do not add deviations between aerosol predictions and observations. A similar calculation and finding are seen for African dust events, suggesting the satisfactory treatment of dust at the regional (CAMS) and local (dispersion of transboundary pollution) level in the southeastern Mediterranean. Deviations in air quality performance for day-night and summer-winter time periods, indicated pathways to optimize the configuration of the model system. Last, the study focuses on limited periods of heat when thermal discomfort is induced to the urban population. During such periods, health risk may become more severe due to high concentrations of PM2.5. The investigation of the differential model performance and aerosol load due to the selection of different urban parameterizations (WRF), is currently under study and will be presented during the conference.
How to cite: Athanasopoulou, E., Karagiannis, D., Papangelis, G., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., and Gerasopoulos, E.: Health-related atmospheric aerosol over an urban hotspot in the Mediterranean: model performance and insights for different urban parameterizations during heat stress periods, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-21, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-21, 2024.
In this study, we analyze weekly mortality series at the provincial level for all seasons of the year. Using an artificial intelligence model, we examine the importance of various meteorological and atmospheric pollution variables on the temporal variability of mortality. The variables analyzed include maximum and minimum temperatures (Aemet ROCIO 5km), concentrations of ozone, PM10, PM25, and NO2 (CAMS 10km) for both the concurrent week and the previous week. To obtain the provincial series, we developed a methodology that involves calculating the weighted average of all grid points within the province, weighted by the population of the covered area.
In summer, the results show that the artificial intelligence model can reasonably explain the variability in mortality in many Spanish provinces, especially in large cities such as Madrid and Barcelona, where the temporal correlations between predicted and observed values exceed 0.6. The minimum temperature is the most important variable in most provinces, followed by the maximum temperature for both the current and previous weeks. The results indicate that atmospheric pollution plays a significant role. However, there is considerable interprovincial variability. Analyzing extreme events reveals that, in most cases, temperature extremes coincide with atmospheric pollution episodes.
In winter, the most significant variable is the minimum temperature of the previous week in almost all provinces, with correlation indices above 0.5. Regarding extremes, we again find coincidences of several factors, especially at the beginning of major mortality episodes, with the most notable being high levels of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter.
We conclude that the proposed methodology is capable of reasonably explaining the temporal variability of mortality and that a significant portion of extreme mortality events have a composite nature (compound events), where the coincidence and succession of several factors seems to play a determining role.
How to cite: Montávez, J. P., Garnés-Morales, G., Tortosa, J., Gil-Guirado, S., García-Fernández, E., Cataldi, M., Segado-Moreno, L., Raluy, E., Gallardo, V., and JIménez-Guerrero, P.: Influence of Temperature and air Pollution on Provincial Mortality in Spain: A Seasonal AI Approach, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-49, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-49, 2024.
The effects of climate change are becoming more noticeable in communities around the world. These implications include altered weather patterns, changes in the dynamics of wildlife and flora, and variations in the quality, accessibility, and availability of water and food resources. In the foreseeable future, regional variations in how climate change affects air quality are also expected. It is anticipated that climate change will increase ground-level ozone concentrations, increase the number of individuals exposed to allergens such as pollen, and degrade air quality in numerous parts of the globe. It might also reduce visibility, which would make it difficult to see far away and interfere with mobility. Variations in the ambient concentrations of air contaminants can also affect indoor air quality.
A helpful tool for comprehending and characterizing global climate types is the Köppen-Geiger (KG) classification system. This work analyses the application of the KG classification system to the latest CMIP6 experiments. A baseline for the historical era 1970–2000 was established using the WorldClim dataset and an ensemble of 14 global climate models was used to evaluate future climate variability in Iberia, Greece, and Cyprus from 2041 to 2060. These projections are based on many scenarios of human-induced radiative forcing, and the novel Shared Socioeconomical Pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.
The Iberian Peninsula and Cyprus are predicted to experience dramatic changes based on the results; temperate (C) and arid (B) regions should experience a significant shift from a moderate summer temperature (Csb) to a hot summer climate (Csa). The shift from BSk (semi-arid cold) to BSh (semi-arid hot), the loss of Cfb (tempered oceanic), and the rise in Csa (hot-summer Mediterranean) climate types are all expected to affect Greece's climate.
Since high temperatures can have a major impact on indoor air quality, a rise in ambient air pollutants, like particulate matter and ozone, may result in increased exposure indoors. Additionally, plants, trees, and crops can be harmed by air pollution. For example, plants exposed to elevated levels of ground-level ozone exhibit reduced photosynthetic activity, slower growth rates, and increased susceptibility to diseases. On the other hand, the frequency and duration of wildfires have increased due to climate change. Smoke from wildfires contaminates the air, reducing visibility and disrupting outdoor activities. It can also reach other areas hundreds of miles downwind. Respiratory conditions like bronchitis, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) might deteriorate when humans are exposed to smoke from wildfires. The growing urgency of the aforementioned hazards highlights the need for suitable policies and activities for climate change adaptation and mitigation, to counteract the anticipated adverse conditions.
Acknowledgments: This research was funded by National Funds by FCT ‒ Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UIDB/04033/2020. This research was supported under the Breath IN Erasmus+ project 2023-1-PT01-KA220_HED-00153118.
How to cite: Andrade, C., Mourato, S., K. Paschalidοu, A., and Yamasaki, E.: Köppen-Geiger Climate Classifications in Iberia, Greece, and Cyprus under climate change projections with CMIP6 Experiments, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-35, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-35, 2024.
The great amount of field work required to collect vegetational data for the calculation of ecosystem services, often hinders the possibility to investigate other parameters involved. This pilot study faced this issue by (I) exploring the potential of open data to calculate the ecosystem services provided by the urban vegetation, in terms of air pollution removal; (II) reworking vegetational data and ecosystem services in a website accessible and comprehensible to the public; (III) integrating the results with measurements on the field.
To do so, the arboreal vegetation of the ring road around Bologna city centre was analysed using the software iTree-Eco. Vegetation data supplied to the software were either downloaded from the open data portal of the municipality, or calculated in QGIS on recent orthophotos. Hence, iTree estimated the potential air pollutant removal for each species. Eventually, those indicated by the software as the most efficient species were furtherly investigated with an empirical approach, evaluating their photosynthetic efficiency and leaf micromorphology as proxies for their capability to remove gaseous and particulate pollutants, respectively. These data were compared with plants of the same genera or species grown in a green area nearby (the Botanical Garden). While the photosynthetic efficiency, calculated as Fv/Fm, did not show any significant difference between the Botanical Garden and the roadside vegetation, the stomatal density of some species from the ring road resulted significantly higher (p-value<0.05) than those of the Botanical Garden, an unexpected result since stomatal density is thought to decrease with high CO2 levels and drought stress. Differences in trichome density and waxes texture between individuals from the two areas were investigated as well.
Summarising, this study demonstrated the potential of open data for the analysis and dissemination of the ecosystem services provided by the vegetation, and it suggested to implement algorithms that calculate the removal of air pollutants using micro-morphological parameters, as these are crucial factors in the pollution mitigation capabilities of urban trees.
How to cite: Aloisi, I., Montanari, M., Gherardi, S., Rodríguez-Fernández, A., Fernández-González, D., and Suanno, C.: From big data to micro morphology: an experimental approach to ecosystem services calculation , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-61, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-61, 2024.
This contribution shows the co-benefits of an optimal deployment of renewable energy infrastructure, particularly wind and solar photovoltaics, on air quality and associated health impact. The term "optimal" here specifically refers to leveraging the spatio-temporal complementarity of both resources in order to minimize the fluctuations of their combined electricity production, and so easing their integration in the energy mix. In a previous work by Jerez et al. (2023), the open-access CLIMAX tool was developed for that purpose, and utilized to delineate optimal capacity density scenarios across five European regions. We now show that, under these optimized scenarios, the European CO2-equivalent emissions could decrease by 1%, accompanied by a significant reduction in pollutant emissions from combustion power plants, potentially amounting to hundreds of kilotons of fine particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide saved. Exposure to these contaminants caused approximately three hundred thousands deaths in Europe in 2021, as reported by EEA (2023). In this sense, building upon the methodology employed by Tarín-Carrasco et al. (2021), our estimates corroborate that implementing the CLIMAX scenarios could substantially avoid human fatalities associated with air pollution. Hence, pursuing carbon neutrality through a judicious energy transition emerges as a win-win strategy. Not only does it contribute to climate change mitigation by curbing greenhouse gas emissions, but it also fosters healthier, more breathable environments, thus preventing premature mortality as it relates to poor air quality.
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Jerez, S., Barriopedro, D., García-López, A., Lorente-Plazas, R., Somoza, A. M., Turco, M., Carrillo, J., & Trigo, R. M. (2023). An action-oriented approach to make the most of the wind and solar power complementarity. Earth's Future, 11, e2022EF003332.
Tarín-Carrasco, P., Im, U., Geels, C., Palacios-Peña, L., & Jiménez-Guerrero, P. (2021). Contribution of fine particulate matter to present and future premature mortality over Europe: A non-linear response. Environment International, 153, 106517.
How to cite: Gallardo, V., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., and Jerez, S.: A win-win strategy to enhance the energy transition, improve air quality and reduce associated health threats, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-26, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-26, 2024.
Addressing the coupled challenged of climate change and air quality in the Mediterranean requires a unified analysis and response from these regions. LIFE SIRIUS (System for Integrated EnviRonmental Information in Urban areaS) is a three-year project with seven expert partners from three different countries dedicated to improving urban air quality planning and management by empowering responsible public authorities with the latest knowledge and competencies in urban air quality governance. The project will ultimately produce Updated Air Quality Plans for three cities, Thessaloniki, Rome, and Nicosia, as well as operational air quality and health-related warning systems and a unified Environmental Management System. At its core, LIFE SIRIUS aspires to lay out a tangible pathway that accelerates and scales up solutions designed to address air quality challenges. This emphasis extends to the health impacts and compound effects associated with air quality and heat stress issues.
In this work we present an analysis of the main research pillars of LIFE SIRIUS over one of its case studies, Cyprus, namely emissions, pollutant concentrations and health impacts. Assessment of anthropogenic emissions over the county reveals the significant contribution of road transport for several primary species (for NOx, PM2.5, CO, BC), followed by industry and energy production. The results of 10 years of measurements of the main atmospheric pollutants show that the concentrations of most pollutants are below the corresponding limit values established in Cypriot and European legislation. On the contrary, the target value of ozone is exceeded and the limit value of suspended particles with a diameter of less than 10 micrometers (PM10) is exceeded. It is noted that the increasing trend in ozone is accompanied by a decreasing trend in nitrogen oxides, a possible outcome of traffic related measures, while the exceedances of the PM10 limit values are due to both anthropogenic and natural sources. Lastly, we present results from a first study that accounts for the lagged effects of heat stress and air pollution synergy performed explicitly at daily temporal resolution over Cyprus, based on 16 years data of temperature, air pollutant concentrations and daily mortality. Mortality risk due to heat stress is compounded by air pollution with the elderly being the more vulnerable group.
How to cite: McClintock, C., Kushta, J., Economou, T., Parliari, D., and Lelieveld, J.: An Integrated Analysis of Recent Emissions, Pollutant Concentrations, and Health Impacts over Cyprus: The LIFE SIRIUS Approach , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-51, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-51, 2024.
Alternaria genus contains more than 300 ubiquitous fungal species, and thus its spores can be found in both outdoor and indoor environments. Many species of this genus are catalogued as plant pathogens that affect different crops, causing important losses in the agricultural sector. Moreover, Alternaria spores have also been described as a significant source of allergens, with Alt a 1 glycoprotein being the major allergen. This allergen reacts with over 90% of IgE serum in patients sensitized to Alternaria and can be present in the air even low airborne spore concentrations. Traditionally, forecasting models for risk periods associated with environmental exposition to this fungus have been based only on aerobiological spore counts combined with some meteorological factors such as temperature and precipitation. However, other parameters such as land use and prevailing winds also significantly influence the airborne allergen load. For that reason, the aim of this study is to identify the major emission sources of Alternaria spores and Alt a 1 allergen to improve the forecasting models of environmental exposure to this aeroallergen. This study was carried out in León (Spain) over a five-year period (2016-2020). Airborne spores were sampled using a Hirst-type volumetric sampler, following the methodology proposed by CEN legislation EN 16868:2019. The samples were analysed under a light microscope at 400x magnification using two longitudinal transects in the effective collecting area. Furthermore, the allergenic fraction was collected by a cyclone low-volume sampler and the major allergen Alt a 1 was quantified by ELISA on daily samples The land use data within a 30 km radius of monitoring station were obtained from Castilla y León crops and natural maps, which use satellite imagery from the Copernicus programme with a spatial resolution of 10 m. Additionally, wind parameters, in combination with spore and allergen concentration, were analyzed using conditional probability functions plots. The results show that areas covered by cereal crops or pastures act as the major sources of Alternaria conidia and Alt a 1 allergen. However, there are discrepancies between the airborne transport of spores and allergen since the highest mean spore concentration values occurs with wind speed from 1 to 2 m s -1; whereas wind speed between 2 and 4 m s-1 favor the highest Alt a 1 allergen concentrations. This may indicate a greater contribution of long-medium transport of allergen than spores, highlighting the need to perform aerobiological spore counts in combination with allergen quantification for a better assessment of atmospheric allergenic load. Finally, this also underscores the importance of considering the land cover and the location of emission sources, as well as the main atmospheric transport routes, to improve the risk forecasting models for environmental exposure to this aeroallergen.
How to cite: Alberto, R.-F., Carlos, B.-A., Iris, A., Ana María, V.-M., Rosa María, V.-B., Chiara, S., Roberto, F., Ana Isabel, C., Paola, D. N., and Delia, F.-G.: Significance of emission sources identification for understanding the atmospheric load of Alternaria spores and Alt a 1 allergen., 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-77, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-77, 2024.
In this contribution, the activities envisaged in the framework of the project “uRban hEat and pollution iSlands inTerAction in Rome and possible miTigation strategies” (RESTART) and the results obtained in its first phase are presented.
The aim of RESTART is the investigation of the linkage between the Urban Heat Island (UHI) and the Urban Pollution Island (UPI) in Rome (Italy), offering a series of mitigation strategies including tailored Nature-Based Solutions (NBS), such as green areas/walls/roofs, trees, and ready-to-use guidelines for the improvement of well-being and liveability in urban environments.
The project’s activities are divided into two main phases. The first phase is focused on determining the state of the art of the UHI and UPI in Rome, analysing the meteorological processes affecting these two phenomena and identifying possible links between them, analysing how severe/low pollution events and extreme weather events, such as heatwaves or cold spells, interact and possibly trigger their occurrence. These phenomena are investigated by using ground-based atmospheric monitoring instruments, belonging to international observatories and dense networks of instruments and providing quality-checked datasets of WMO-compliant meteorological and air quality measurements in the Rome area.
In the second phase, the environmental vulnerabilities identified will drive the numerical investigation of city-scale ventilation, heat transport, and air pollutants removal/accumulation. The most up-to-date numerical modelling chains will combine cutting-edge numerical simulations with mesoscale and dispersion models to simulate the connection between UHI and UPI, both in the ex-ante and ex-post NBS implementation scenario. The thermodynamic and chemical processes that govern UHI and UPI will be analysed, focusing on thermal comfort, pollutant dispersion and photochemical tropospheric ozone reactions. The outcomes, obtained from the combination of numerical and experimental analyses, will provide general recommendations and guidelines that will be disseminated within the scientific community, population, and policymakers.
In this contribution, the results relating to the assessment of UHI Intensity (UHII) and UPI Intensity (UPII) in Rome over the period 2018-2023 are presented and discussed. The evaluation of UHII and UPII is carried out using hourly observations of near-surface air temperature and in-situ pollutant concentrations.
The project is funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research (Prot. 2022KZ2AJE) as a Project of National Interest (PRIN2022).
How to cite: Di Bernardino, A., Brattich, E., Argentini, S., Campanelli, M., Barbano, F., Casasanta, G., Cecilia, A., Di Sabatino, S., Erriu, M., Falasca, S., Maestri, T., and Siani, A. M.: The uRban hEat and pollution iSlands inTerAction in Rome and possible miTigation strategies (RESTART) project, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-95, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-95, 2024.
Climate change is one of the foremost challenges confronting humanity, with far-reaching consequences for ecosystems, economies, and societies worldwide. The steady rise of global temperatures is a clear sign of our changing climate with wide-ranging consequences, affecting everything from weather patterns and biodiversity to resources and human health. This study, performed in the frame of CLIMPACT project (Grant Agreement: 2023ΝΑ11900001), examines the impact of temperature rise on human thermal stress over the following years using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). UTCI combines meteorological variables into a single value estimated in degrees Celsius and assigns it to a 10-point scale expressing the degree of human thermal stress. The scale ranges from -5 (‘extreme cold stress’) to +4 (‘extreme heat stress’) and includes a neutral category (0 – ‘no thermal stress’) and levels of increasing cold and heat stress. Climate change projections of the UTCI were estimated at 12:00 UTC using bias-corrected data of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and global solar radiation derived from the EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations for Greece region and at a spatial resolution of ~11 km (0.11°). An ensemble of seven regional climate model simulations (three different regional models driven by five different global models) was used for the reference period (1991−2020) and the future period (2031−2060) in order to examine possible changes of UTCI estimations in the future. Both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gases emissions scenario hypotheses (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) were examined. The results show an increase of projected mean UTCI ranging from 1 ◦C to 1.5 ◦C [mean ± standard deviation (sd) = 1.2 ± 0.1 ◦C] across the country by the end of 2060 according to RCP4.5. This change is intensified under RCP8.5, with a projected increase in mean UTCI ranging from 1.4 ◦C to 2 ◦C (mean ± sd = 1.6 ± 0.1 ◦C) across the country. Areas with higher increase of mean UTCI are mountainous regions of the inland Greece, the northern and western part of the country and the islands of the Ionian and eastern Aegean Sea. In the future period, Greece is anticipated to experience a reduction in the percentage of cold stress and ‘no thermal stress’ days and an increase in the percentage of ‘strong’ (by 0.9% - RCP4.5; 1.2% - RCP8.5), ‘very strong’ (by 2.9% - RCP4.5; 3.7% - RCP8.5), and ‘extreme’ (by 0.4% - RCP4.5; 0.5% - RCP8.5) heat stress days. The increase of heat stress is particularly pronounced during summer when the increase in the percentage of ‘very strong’ heat stress days ranges from 9.5% (RCP4.5) to 11.6% (RCP8.5) and of ‘extreme’ heat stress from 1.3% (RCP4.5) to 1.8% (RCP8.5). The findings underscore the significant impact of climate change on human thermal stress in Greece, with notable increases in projected heat stress. These projections highlight the urgent need for adaptive strategies to mitigate the health risks associated with rising thermal stress due to climate change.
How to cite: Pantavou, K., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., and Kyriakou, P.: Heat stress in Greece in the future climate, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-97, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-97, 2024.
Cities are considered local “hotspots” of climate change. Urban areas concentrate a large fraction of global population, wealth, and emissions, exposing their inhabitants to climate change impacts. Therefore, the improvement of urban present climate description and future projections are paramount for designing adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Global Climate Models are state-of-the-art tools for projecting future climate. However, most of the simulations have coarse resolutions and do not have physical urban parametrisations to adequately represent the physical properties and processes at the urban scale.
The advantage of applying a machine learning approach – Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) – is explored for better describing Madrid’s urban climate. Namely, the ability to reproduce present and future climates: 2-m air temperature (Tmax, Tmin); surface temperature (LST); urban heat island (UHI) and surface urban heat island (SUHI) effects. The XGBoost is evaluated at monthly and daily scales for local ground temperatures and, also at hourly scale, to represent the spatial structure of land surface temperature w.r.t. remote sensing data. Firstly, for present climate, XGBoost is trained with a set of ERA5 predictors (0.25°), ground stations, and Land Surface Temperature observations. Secondly, a number of sensitivity cases are performed to assess the results dependency to predictors and their resolution. Thirdly, the learned relationships between the set of predictors and predictands, is applied to Earth System Global Climate Models (ESGCM) predictors, providing historical and future climate projections for the 21st century under four emission scenarios.
Overall, XGBoost results reveal a good performance and significant added value against ERA5 and the ESGCM. XGBoost greatly improves the reproduction of the present climate Tmax, Tmin, LST, and more importantly, the UHI (-0.5°C and +3°C for Tmax and Tmin), and the SUHI (+1°C and +2°C for Tmax and Tmin). For future climate, the XGBoost significantly corrects the ESGCM UHI misrepresentation but seems to underestimate the expected Madrid’s local warming (3.5°C anomaly).
Acknowledgements: This work was funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020). The authors would like also to acknowledge the EEA-Financial Mechanism 2014–2021 and the Portuguese Environment Agency through the Pre-defined Project-2 National Roadmap for Adaptation XXI (PDP-2). Angelina Bushenkova was supported by a grant through the project “Plano de Ação Climática do Município de Barcelos (PMACB)”.
How to cite: Bushenkova, A., Matos Soares, P., Johannsen, F., and Lima, D.: A Machine Learning application towards a better representation of Madrid’s urban climate, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-118, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-118, 2024.
Urban areas represent a hot spots for the so called triple planetary crisis: climate change, air pollution, and biodiversity loss. The anthropogenically-emitted light absorbing aerosols, and in particular the Black Carbon (BC), play a crucial role in all the aspects of this planetary crisis. The very delicate and populated urban areas of the Mediterranean region make no exception.
This study aims at enhancing the understanding on the BC light absorbing aerosols properties in urban areas in the Mediterranean. In-situ observations have been continuously carried out in Rome downtown, at an urban background location, since 2020, by an Aethalometer at 7 wavelengths (from 370 to 950 nm). These were coupled to ancillary measurements (Elemental Carbon and micrometeorology).
We assessed the site-specific Mass Absorption Coefficient (MAC) and show evidence of its strong temporal variability in the urban area of Rome. Based on this, we provide a more accurate estimate of the BC mass concentration. We then explore MAC dependance on the absorption Ångström exponents (AAE), with a specific focus on the contribution from fossil fuels air pollution. Finally, we assess associations between BC light absorption, the urban radiative balance, and the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect.
Findings may support studies aimed at characterizing BC in urban areas and developing new health-related air quality metrics, as well as at improving climate and air quality models estimates at urban scale in the Mediterranean. Findings may further serve at improving satellite-based observations of the light absorbing aerosols in urban areas, which are strongly needed in the future to improve BC spatial coverage at a planetary scale.
Acknowledgments: Project funded by both ARPA Lazio, and the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), Mission 4 Component 2 Investment 1.4 - Call for tender No. 3138 of 16 December 2021, rectified by Decree n.3175 of 18 December 2021 of Italian Ministry of University and Research funded by the European Union – NextGenerationEU; Award Number: Project code CN_00000033, Concession Decree No. 1034 of 17 June 2022 adopted by the Italian Ministry of University and Research, CUP F13C22000720007, Project title “National Biodiversity Future Center - NBFC”.
How to cite: Sirignano, C., Marinelli, L., Di Iulio, G., Listrani, S., Di Giosa, A., Cecilia, A., Santinami, E., Argentini, S., Casasanta, G., Cairo, F., Conte, M., Decesari, S., and Costabile, F.: Black Carbon aerosols in Mediterranean urban areas, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-144, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-144, 2024.
