Modelling future risk of forest and peri-urban fires for an eastern Mediterranean environment: the case of Greece

Climate change impacts are undeniably more visible than ever before, affecting the Mediterranean areas' ecological, social, and economic viability in a variety of ways. In particular, the rising frequency and intensity of fires is one of the most serious threats to continental and island ecosystems, resulting in human fatalities, environmental and economic losses. For example, during the summer of 2023, Greece saw the greatest fire on record in Europe since 1980, resulting in a burnt area of over 96,000 ha that caused numerous human casualties and the destruction of one of the most ecologically important National Parks (Dadia). It is thus important to develop accurate fire risk quantification methods under both current and future climate conditions. In this study, we developed a methodological framework for the assessment of forest fire risk in the near (2041-2060) and distant future (2081-2100) climatic conditions in comparison with the reference period (1995–2014), under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The risk assessment is developed according to the conceptual framework of the "impact chain". Specifically, it is based on the combined use of qualitative and quantitative variables that fully describe the three risk components, i.e., hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), aiming at the estimation of a final composite risk index. The multicriteria spatial analysis, which is further implemented with GIS techniques, is expected to highlight the most critical environmental and socio-economic parameters that determine the risk levels and the areas that are expected to be heavily affected in the future. The results of this study can provide useful insight on the climate fire risk and vulnerability at local level, hence enhancing adaptation decision making, actions and governance.

Acknowledgement: The project entitled “Projecting the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems in Greece - An integrated forest vulnerability and mitigation framework”, with a total budget of 199,174.5 € is implemented by the University of the Aegean and funded by the Green Fund, Funding Programme: ‘Natural Environment and Innovative Actions 2023’. Priority Axis 3: ‘Research and Implementation’.