Session PL8 

Wildfires are a natural, reoccurring phenomenon in Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The Mediterranean region has recently been experiencing wildfires of increased intensity and magnitude, due to the combined effect of increased temperatures, prolonged drought conditions, as well as human activities. Under those circumstances, wildfire management and firefighting activities face significant challenges. Local authorities and firefighting agencies have been working on enhancing their strategies, resources allocation, and coordination to effectively manage those fires.

In this context, the TREEADS project funded by the EU Horizon 2020 Programme under the EU Green Deal call, adopts a holistic approach, proposing technological solutions that enhance our current abilities for the early detection of wildfires, as well as the timely response of the firefighting and fire management efforts. Under the project activities, those solutions are tested and validated on different pilot regions across Europe, tailored to the local stakeholder and community needs. Our pilot region, Samaria Gorge within the Samaria National Park, is one of the longest gorges in Europe and one of the most densely vegetated regions on the island of Crete, including extensive pine and cypress forests. In addition to highly flammable fuel, the Samaria gorge exhibits rough terrain and limited escape routes, posing a threat to its ~1000 daily visitors, in the case of a wildfire. This threat is intensified further as climate change unfolds in the region, bringing more frequent and prolonged heatwaves, combined with periods of prolonged drought. Our role is to coordinate and facilitate the communication among stakeholders and TREEADS technology partners, in order to test TREEADS technologies related to wildfire prevention and preparedness, and the timely detection, suppression, and evacuation of the Samaria gorge in the case that a wildfire event occurs.

How to cite: Grillakis, M., Arampatzis, G., Phillis, A., Manoudakis, S., and Voulgarakis, A.: Advancing Wildfire Management in Mediterranean: The TREEADS (H2020) project., 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-36, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-36, 2024.

TITLE: INTEGRATED COMMAND SYSTEM FOR COMPLEX INCIDENTS AND LARGE FOREST FIRES

Abstract:

In the current European context, emergency responders are confronted with a complex landscape. Factors such as climate change, the unmanaged forest re-grow all across Europe, and the expansion of buildings into wildland areas have increased the complexity and severity of emergencies. Responders must manage a vast amount of information in a short time, making decision-making a challenging process.

The Incident Command Post, therefore, requires a standardized organizational system to optimize the effectiveness of actions, minimize uncertainty, and simplify the complex scenario for timely and safe decision-making.

Spain’s emergency management system has integrated aspects of the French doctrine of emergency management and the American Incident Command System. However, it has not fully adopted all aspects of these systems. Meanwhile, many Fire and Rescue Departments in Spain are increasingly applying the French System GOC (Operational Management and Command management mechanism).

This abstract proposes a system that integrates mechanisms from both the French and American models, along with other strategies, to address the identified shortcomings in managing complex incidents. Initially oriented towards the reality of emergencies in Valencia, the proposed system aims for broader application across Spain and potentially the European Union. This integrated command system seeks to improve the management of complex emergencies and large forest fires, contributing to more effective and efficient responses.

This system was initially presented as the final project for an ‘Advanced Course in Emergency Coordination and Civil Protection’ (Ciclo Superior de Coordinación de Emergencias y Protección Civil), demonstrating its practical application in the field of emergency management and civil protection. Now it is the author’s aim to spread it to a bigger international audience.

Author: Jesús Morcillo i Julià.

About the author:

Seasoned wildland firefighter with a career spanning over two decades. Demonstrated expertise in leading fire crews, coordinating operations, and managing complex wildfires. Proven commitment to team building and leadership, with a focus on training and instruction. Extensive travel for training and collaborations in various fields.

SGISE Bombers Forestals – Pau Costa Foundation – Consorci Provincial Bombers Castelló

How to cite: Morcillo i Julià, J.: Integrated Command System for Complex Incidents and Large Wildfires, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-43, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-43, 2024.

The 2018 Mati wildfire in Greece caused 104 fatalities, leading to national mourning and a change in Greek wildfire policy. Dry conditions, strong winds, and limited evacuation routes led to a late evacuation, with people trapped in the path of the wildfire. Evacuating from wildfires is crucial for saving lives, but timing and planning is key. Dire evacuations happen when there is no time to evacuate from a wildfire, but people attempt to do so, resulting in entrapment and loss of life. This presentation studies Mati using trigger boundaries,  to examine whether an evacuation with no casualties was possible. Trigger boundaries relate the required time to evacuate a community to the available time until a wildfire reaches the community. Analyzing past wildfires with trigger boundaries can help understand what went wrong and improve future evacuation strategies for at-risk communities.

How to cite: Kalogeropoulos, N., Mitchell, H., Kuligowski, E., Ronchi, E., and Rein, G.: Analyzing the chances of evacuation in the 2018 Mati Fire , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-32, 2024.

Recent destructive fire seasons around the world indicate the emergence of novel fire regimes, characterized by high-intensity burning and extreme fire behavior. While the contribution of individual factors can be debated, the scientific literature concludes that fire weather is one prominent driver of fire activity. Moreover, there is growing evidence that climate change is escalating the frequency, severity and extend of wildfires around the world. Simply put, wildfires are changing because we change the conditions in which they occur. Although the importance of weather to wildfire activity has been documented since the 1930s, there is still a lot of research effort in advancing our knowledge on the drivers and the processes that lead to the development of extreme fire weather and behavior. Here we investigate the synoptic and mesoscale fire weather dynamics associated with 9 extreme wildfires in Greece during the period from 2009—2022. We select wildfires that took place within this period to exploit the increased availability of surface weather data from the automatic weather stations network of the National Observatory of Athens as ground-truth for evaluating the numerical simulations and studying surface fire weather. The selection of the examined wildfires is based on the extremeness of satellite-derived daily growth rates of burnt area as well as the environmental and socio-economic impacts. To assess the fire weather dynamics associated with each event we conduct numerical simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized with ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Our synoptic and mesoscale analysis of the WRF simulations illustrates the dominant atmospheric processes that drive fire weather conditions, such as the horizontal and vertical transport of dry, warm and high-momentum air. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrates a distinct separation in atmospheric dynamics between the wind-driven and plume-dominated (i.e., wildfires that are accompanied by pyroconvection) wildfires. Finally, our work highlights the added value of high-resolution simulations to better simulate fire weather conditions in areas with complex topography such as Greece, and we discuss potential implications for fire weather forecasting.

Acknowledgments
This work has been supported financially by the Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (H.F.R.I.) under the "2nd Call for H.F.R.I. Research Projects to support Post-Doctoral Researchers" (Project Number: 00559, Project Acronym: FLAME).

How to cite: Papavasileiou, G., Giannaros, T. M., Lagouvardos, K., and Koletsis, I.: Numerical analysis of synoptic and mesoscale fire weather dynamics of extreme wildfires in Greece, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-119, 2024.

Forest fires often exhibit complex and dynamic fire behaviour resulting from interactions between the various parts of a fire and the surrounding environment. These interactions can cause rapid fire progression and lead to loss of containment and critical fire safety problems. The effects of convective processes near the fireline induce a local wind flow and modified flame properties. The fire spread conditions along the fire perimeter are modified by the interaction between the fire, the flames, and the surrounding environment. It is observed that a quick-fire acceleration is followed by a deceleration of the fire front. We assimilate these phases to the eruptive process of a fire acceleration in a canyon and designate by disruptive the deceleration phase, respectively. The relevance of the convective flow induced by the fire in these processes is analysed in the present paper based on laboratory scale experiments.

To analyse the induced local wind flow, laboratory experiments were conducted at the Forest Fire Research Laboratory (LEIF) of the University of Coimbra in Lousã. It was considered Two different physical problems were considered: a point ignition fire in a slope (SP) and a point ignition fire in a canyon (DEP). The local flow velocity was measured with five S-pitot tubes 15cm above the ground. S-type pitot tubes allow the determination of the local flow velocity by measuring the differential pressure based on Bernoulli's equation. In SP tests the pitot tubes were placed along the centre line, in the middle of the fuel bed area, and in the DEP tests the pitot tubes were placed in the canyon water line.

To simplify the analysis, it was assumed that the flame is static at the position of the pitot tube. Using the average values of flow velocity every 5 seconds, the time of the passage of the flame at each pitot tube position was estimated from the curve of U'(t) when the flow velocity changed its signal from essentially positive to essentially negative values of U'. As the flow approaches the leeward side of the flame (negative values), the value of U'  increases to a maximum value and then decreases due to the flame acting like a solid, leading to a stagnation point. On the lee side of the flame, the flow velocity U' becomes negative and has a clearly defined minimum value. This local flow changes the properties of the flame (flame angle and flame length) and when the local wind flow on the lee side of the flame increases, the fire ROS decreases and the flame angle increase and a flow contrary to the fire spread appears.

How to cite: Ribeiro, C., Viegas, D., Rodrigues, T., and Barbosa, T.: Local Flow Velocity Measurements During the Eruptive and Disruptive Dynamic Fire Behaviour, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-104, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-104, 2024.

Portugal is a fire-prone country, due to climate conditions that drive high fuel availability. In the 21st century, several catastrophic fire seasons have occurred, with an extremely high total burned area and the loss of human lives. Extreme fire seasons typically occur under hot and dry conditions, such as 2003, 2005, and 2017, although wind is known to facilitate fire spread, as occurred in October of 2017 due to the Ophelia storm.

In this work, the bivariate relationship between Fire Radiative Power (FRP), daily temperature, and wind speed was assessed, using copula functions, which estimate the joint distribution of two variables. This method is specially suited to analyse extreme events, since it is possible to model asymmetrical relationships, namely tail dependences. FRP was retrieved from MODIS, with a spatial resolution of 1 km, and hourly temperature and hourly wind components were obtained from the ERA Land dataset, with a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Only the maximum FRP value occurring on each ERA Land grid point was used. Copula functions were fitted to FRP and the weather variables on the day of the fire and on the previous days, for the period 2001-2020. Conditional probabilities of FRP were then computed, given extreme values of temperature and wind intensity. Forests and shrublands are very prone to burn in Portugal, but since the fuel accumulation and availability is very different in these land covers, they were assessed separately.

The results show that extreme values of temperature and wind intensity increase the probability of high values of FRP, when compared to lower temperatures and weaker winds, and that the probability is higher for the case of temperature extremes.

Ackowledgements: This study was supported by FCT I.P./MCTES (Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, Portugal)  through national funds (PIDDAC):  UIDB/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020), “Fundos próprios para desenvolvimento de projetos de I&D” Project MEDCEX - reference: 100SPID8106.

How to cite: Páscoa, P., Pereira, S., de Zea Bermudez, P., and M. Gouveia, C.: The link between temperature and wind extremes with fire activity in Portugal in the 21st century, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-90, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-90, 2024.

Compound extremes are a very important problem that is observed in various areas. Whenever several hazards occur, jointly or in cascade, their independent extreme effects may not be very relevant, while their simultaneous impact(s) may be quite devastating. The occurrence of wildfires in Portugal is a major societal and environmental concern, which happens every year from June to October. The high temperatures which are observed in the late Spring/early Summer, associated with low values of humidity, in known to enhance the fire prone conditions. The association between high temperatures and wind speed is also believed to play a very important part in wildfire spreading although that has not really been established yet. Several recent  wildfires lead in that direction. For instance the event which occurred in Portugal in October 2017 when fires concurred with the winds associated to the passage of the Ophelia storm is such an example.

In this work, extreme value theory will be used to analyze the concurrent effect of temperature and windspeed on the severity of large wildfires in Portugal, measure by means of the frequency radiation power.

How to cite: De Zea Bermudez, P., Pereira, S., Pascoa, P., and M. Gouveia, C.: Compound Extremes and Their Role in Wildfire Dynamics: Insight from Portugal, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-124, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-124, 2024.

The fire season of 2023 was particularly devastating for Greece, with an estimated of around 175 000 ha, the second worst year since 1980 following the all-time record of 2007. More than 80 wildfires occurred in July over Attica region, Corfu, Evia and Rhodes islands, being responsible for 28 casualties and 75 injuries. The season was remarkably severe in the eastern sector of the West Thrace region in the northern continental Greece. A major fire started near the city of Alexandroupolis on 21st August and on 28th the main part of the Dadia forest and surrounding pine forests burnt, recording more than 80,000 ha and stated by EU officials as the largest recorded fire in the EU.

The exceptionality of the 2023 fire activity in Greece will be evaluated, considering the spring drought conditions, summer heatwaves and strong wind patterns observed over the region. ERA5 reanalyses will be used to characterize drought conditions and heat extremes. Active fires from SEVIRI, MODIS and VIIRS programs will allow characterizing fire occurrence and severity. The role of synoptic conditions and weather extremes will be evaluated and related to fire activity and behavior.   Moreover, during the hydrological year of 2023, Northeastern Greece was struck by a winter drought and by summer heatwaves. Fire beahviour was linked with strong wind patterns that affected the region. Vegetation dynamics throughout the pre-fire period was analysed over the affected region using the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Gross Primary Production (GPP) retrieved from MODIS data.  Spatial and temporal characterization of air pollutants over the region is performed, focusing particularly on the emissions of Particulate Matter (PM) and Carbon Monoxide (CM) during wildfire events, using the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring (CAMS) data.  The study attempts to bring new light to the synergistic effect between fuel availability and weather conditions that created extraordinary conditions for fire propagation.

This study is partially supported by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020- IDL, project FAIR- 2022.01660.PTDC) and by “Fundos próprios para desenvolvimento de projetos de I&D” Project MEDCEX - reference: 100SPID8106.

How to cite: Gouveia, C. M., Seco, D., Santos, R., and Durão, R.: The drivers of the 2023 Greece exceptional fire season , 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-92, 2024.

Our previous studies have shown that climatic conditions in the Mediterranean and specifically over Greece are expected to change, resulting in an increase in fire season length which implies increases in burnt area. Our research employs the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) to investigate the repercussions of climate change and future land use land cover (LULC) on future burnt area using UKESM1-0-LL gridded data from the ISIMIP3b model run. In the present study, the modelled burnt area is validated against satellite observations from Copernicus. We use two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) consisting of an optimistic emissions scenario where emissions peak and decline beyond 2020 (RCP2.6) and a pessimistic scenario, in terms of mitigation where emissions continue to rise throughout the century (RCP8.5). Our results show increased burnt area in the distant future compared to the present period in response to higher future availability of heat resistant needle leaf trees.

How to cite: Rovithakis, A., Voulgarakis, A., Burke, E., Burton, C., Kasoar, M., Grillakis, M., and Seiradakis, K.: Estimating future burnt area changes over Greece using the JULES-INFERNO model, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-55, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-55, 2024.

Climate change imposes a substantial strain on global societies, compelling pragmatic, and timely adaptation measures to secure future prosperity while mitigating the impact of increasingly frequent and intense extreme events, such as wildfires. Compound drought and heatwaves further amplify the wildfire challenge, potentially impacting human health through a decrease in air quality. This underscores the need for concentrated attention and action. These events, with repercussions spanning continents and biomes, pose challenges for authorities striving to prepare effective responses. Our focus is on mainland Portugal, situated in the Mediterranean climate change hotspot, where we analyze the influence of diverse adaptation strategies on wildfire risk.

Using a weighted ensemble of regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX initiative, we project the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and Fire Radiative Power (FRP) across various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Our findings indicate a potential three-fold increase in the occurrence of highly energetic fires, with energy releases surpassing 1000 MW, contingent upon the chosen RCP. Even under robust mitigation scenarios, the probability of megafires — those with energy releases exceeding 1000 MW — experiences a notable upsurge of approximately 1.5-fold. This emphasizes the imperative for proactive adaptation measures irrespective of ongoing mitigation endeavors.

We introduce three distinct mitigation strategies designed to simulate fire prevention policies targeting the most intense fires in diverse climate change scenarios. The most promising outcome entails a reduction in wildfires exceeding 1000 MW by 20 to 60%, an achievement realizable through preventing 95% of hotspots in regions characterized by extreme fire danger. This suggests that an immediate imposition of overly restrictive and costly policies throughout the summer months may not be imperative. Instead, implementing targeted strategies in critical fire danger areas could substantially mitigate the occurrence of destructive megafires.

This work was funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020). This work was performed under the scope of project https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.09185.PTDC (DHEFEUS) and supported by national funds through FCT. AR acknowledge FCT I.P./MCTES for the FCT https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.01167.CEECIND/CP1722/CT0006. The authors would like to acknowledge the project “CEASEFIRE: Envio e disseminação de alertas automatizados de gestão de perigo meteorológico de incêndio”, financed by The Navigator Company.

How to cite: Bento, V. A., DaCamara, C. C., Russo, A., Nunes, S. A., Soares, P. M. M., and Trigo, R. M.: Adapting to change: evaluating the effects of fire prevention approaches in response to climate change, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-58, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-58, 2024.

Weather conditions that can enhance wildfire potential are a problem faced by many countries around the world. Wildfires can have major economic impacts as well as prolonged effects on populations and ecosystems. Distributing information on fire hazards to the public and first responders in real-time is crucial for fire risk management and risk reduction. Although most fires today are caused by people, weather conditions determine if and how fast the fire spreads.  In particular, research has shown that atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is a key parameter predicting the dryness of vegetation and the available fuel for fires. VPD is determined from the environmental air temperature and relative humidity, both of which are readily obtained from smartphones carried by the public.  In this study we use smartphone data from the OpenSignal company, collected during almost 4 years and from more than 40,000 users per day, to estimate VPD values. We have found that smartphone data can provide useful information about fire risk and danger. Here we present two case studies from wildfires in Israel and Portugal in which VPD is calculated using calibrated temperature and relative humidity measurements from smartphones.  Given the rapid growth in the number of smartphones around the globe, we propose applying smartphone data for meteorological research and fire-weather applications. Possible users of these results could be wildfire researchers; public policy specialists in wildfire, climate and disaster management; engineers working with big data; low-income countries; and citizen science advocates.

How to cite: Price, C., Shachaf, H., Rostkier-Edelstein, D., and Mass, C.: On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through Citizen Science, 18th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Chania, Greece, 30 Sep–3 Oct 2024, Plinius18-11, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius18-11, 2024.