- CNR-IRPI, Cosenza, Rende, Italy
Floods represent one of the most frequent and damaging natural hazards worldwide, requiring accurate spatial prediction tools to support risk management and urban planning. This study aims to predict and map flood-prone areas in the Calabria region (southern Italy) by integrating historical flood data, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach, and to assess the potential impacts on road networks and urban areas.
A comprehensive catalogue of flood damage events recorded between 2000 and 2026 was compiled from documentary sources and systematically analyzed within a GIS environment. A total of 315 georeferenced flood occurrence points were identified. Of these, 70% were randomly selected for model calibration using a balanced training dataset, while the remaining 30% were used for validation.
The MaxEnt model was trained by combining the flood inventory with twelve flood-conditioning factors, including lithology, soil texture, land use, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), precipitation, elevation, slope, topographic position index (TPI), sediment transport index (STI), topographic wetness index (TWI), drainage density, and distance to streams. The model output is a spatially explicit flood susceptibility map, classifying the study area into different probability levels of flood occurrence.
Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with its associated area under the curve (AUC). The results indicate very good predictive capability, with success and prediction rates of 94.9% and 93.8%, respectively.
Finally, the susceptibility map was integrated with spatial datasets of road networks and urbanized areas through GIS-based overlay analysis to assess the exposure of these elements to different susceptibility classes. This analysis highlights critical infrastructure and built-up areas potentially affected by flooding, providing valuable information for risk mitigation and spatial planning strategies
How to cite: Conforti, M. and Petrucci, O.: Flood Susceptibility Mapping and Impact Assessment on Road Networks and Urban Areas in the Calabria Region, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-57, 2026.
