Floods and flash floods are among the most damaging hydrometeorological hazards in the Mediterranean, with impacts shaped by rainfall hazard, exposure, and local susceptibility. This study examines rainfall and local geospatial characteristics associated with documented flood impacts in Greece during 2000–2025 and explores how these characteristics vary by impact severity. The analysis is based on more than 450 flood-related events recorded in the High-Impact Weather Events Database for Greece (HIWE-DB), developed and maintained by the METEO unit of the National Observatory of Athens. The original event reports were systematically reviewed to extract reported affected settlements and localities, yielding approximately 1,700 local impact records. The HIWE-DB impact severity classification was attributed to these local records. Rainfall was extracted from a gridded precipitation dataset with 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, developed by the METEO unit using observations from its dense surface weather station network across Greece. Two rainfall indicators were calculated for each affected location: precipitation on the day of the reported impact (R24) and accumulated precipitation over the previous day and the day of impact (R48). In addition to this rainfall dataset, rainfall from the MSWEP dataset was also used to estimate the same indicators as a secondary reference to explore how rainfall-product choice may affect the interpretation of impact-generating events. Descriptive and exploratory statistics are used to examine rainfall distributions, selected geospatial and exposure-related indicators, spatial patterns, and relationships with impact severity. The study provides evidence on the local conditions associated with damaging floods in Greece and can inform flood risk assessment, preventive strategies, impact-based warning approaches, and adaptation planning in Mediterranean environments.
How to cite: Papagiannaki, K., Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni, V., and Kyriakou, P.: Assessing rainfall hazard and local factors associated with societal flood impacts in Greece, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-24, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-24, 2026.
Flood risk in Mediterranean basins is usually discussed in relation to heavy rainfall and hydroclimatic extremes. However, the damage caused by floods is not only the result of the physical event itself. It is also shaped by the way societies have occupied flood-prone areas over time. This contribution presents preliminary results for the Segura River Basin District, in south-eastern Spain, where a long history of floods coexists with intense urbanisation, especially since the second half of the twentieth century.
The analysis is based on AMARNA, a multidisciplinary database for natural risk analysis that allows flood episodes and municipal flood cases to be reconstructed from historical, documentary, bibliographic and press sources. For the Segura basin, 664 rainfall episodes and 2,042 municipal flood cases have been identified between 1258 and 2025. Each case is classified according to hydrological behaviour, damage to infrastructure and human vulnerability. This makes it possible to compare very different historical periods and to move from a simple list of events to a more systematic interpretation of flood impacts.
In order to explore the relationship between floods and territorial exposure, the paper develops a preliminary Flood Impact and Exposure Index for the period 1900–2025. The index combines two types of information. On the one hand, it uses the AMARNA scores related to infrastructure damage and human vulnerability as an indicator of recorded impact. On the other hand, it incorporates exposure through cadastral data on the age and use of buildings, official flood-prone areas for the 10-, 100- and 500-year return periods, and population data where available. The purpose of the index is not to model hydraulic hazard, but to identify municipalities where flood impacts have become more relevant because urban growth has placed more buildings, people and activities in areas historically exposed to flooding.
The preliminary results show a complex temporal pattern. Over the full historical series, the number of recorded flood episodes increases. However, since 1900 this trend becomes less clear, while the number of affected municipalities per episode and the accumulated impact scores tend to rise, particularly after 1960. This suggests that recent flood impacts cannot be explained only by changes in rainfall. Long-standing inland hotspots such as Murcia, Orihuela, Lorca, Cartagena and Caravaca remain important, but the geography of recent impacts points to a growing concentration in coastal and peri-coastal municipalities, especially around the Mar Menor and in urbanised areas crossed by ramblas, ephemeral channels and alluvial fans.
These findings support the idea that flood risk in the Segura basin has increasingly been amplified by exposure. The expansion of tourist-residential development and other urban uses within flood-prone areas has contributed to a process of coastalisation of risk. The results also raise a broader question for adaptation policies: structural flood defence and channel modification may reduce local hazard, but they can also encourage further occupation of dangerous areas. The proposed historical-GIS approach can therefore help identify exposure tipping points and support spatial planning, disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation in Mediterranean basins.
How to cite: Pérez-Morales, A., Rebotier, J., Barriendos, J., Gomariz-Castillo, F. J., García-Martín, F. M., Ochoa-Rego, J., Carrillo, J. M., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., Pino-González, D., Barriendos, M., Hernández-Hernández, M., and Olcina-Cantos, J.: From flood chronologies to exposure tipping points: preliminary evidence from the Segura River Basin District, SE Spain, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-63, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-63, 2026.
This contribution presents the recently published version 2.0 of the Database of Flood Fatalities in the Euro-Mediterranean Region (FFEM-DB 2.0), a multinational dataset documenting 3,737 flood-related fatalities that occurred between 1980 and 2024 across 16 territories (12 corresponding to entire countries). The new release significantly extends the spatial and temporal coverage of the previous version, updating records through December 31, 2024, incorporating four additional study areas, and introducing an event identifier that enables event-based analyses and comparability with international disaster databases.
Key results derived from FFEM-DB 2.0 are presented with a focus on the main variables collected, including victims’ demographic characteristics, accident locations, and circumstances of fatal events. The standardized and harmonized structure of the database allows for consistent cross-regional analyses at the scale of Local Administrative Units, supporting the identification of recurrent patterns and differences in flood mortality across the Euro-Mediterranean region.
Particular attention is devoted to future developments of the database. Ongoing efforts aim at both continuous temporal updating and further geographical expansion to additional territories. Furthermore, new perspectives include the integration of emerging digital archives and the systematic exploitation of heterogeneous data sources available for the last two decades, such as online news repositories and institutional records. In this context, artificial intelligence techniques as natural language processing and automated information extraction, are expected to play a key role in improving data collection, enhancing completeness, and accelerating database updates. Owing to its open and scalable structure, FFEM-DB is therefore positioned as an evolving framework for advancing research and monitoring flood-related mortality in Europe and beyond.
How to cite: Petrucci, O. and the FFEM Team: FFEM, the dataset of flood fatalities in the Euro-Mediterranean Region (1980-2024): results and perspectives, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-54, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-54, 2026.
While flood impacts are traditionally measured through the economic data provided by international insurance companies, recent research has shifted toward documenting disaster-related mortality as a crucial indicator of vulnerability and a tool for assessing prevention efforts. Although this mortality has been extensively studied in Europe, it remains poorly documented in North Africa, a region characterized by significant exposure to hydrometeorological hazards. To address this gap, the FFNA (Flood-related Fatalities in Northern Africa) database provides a georeferenced analysis of fatalities across Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia from 1980 to 2022. This tool aims to improve risk assessment by highlighting the critical influence of behavioral factors and mobility on fatal outcomes. Built according to international FFEM standards, the database compiles 4,054 fatalities from diverse sources—including scientific literature, institutional reports, and press archives—all verified on field through systematic cross-validation. The findings reveal that flood mortality is predominantly male and closely linked to mobility, with more than half of the deaths occurring in traffic-related circumstances. Week-end are more fatal days with 54 % of mortality on Saturday, Sunday and Monday mostly due to road mobility. As a notable difference from Euro-Mediterranean patterns, deaths inside buildings are less frequent, while electrocutions and wadi crossings emerge as distinctive regional features. Spatial analysis indicates that while the majority of fatalities are concentrated in major urban centers, mortality rates are actually higher in sparsely populated areas where people settle along ephemeral riverbeds (wadis) with limited access to warning systems. Temporally, the majority of deaths occur between August and November, with a slight downward trend in annual mortality since 2010 that may reflect improved risk management. Furthermore, an event-based approach shows a decrease in the average number of deaths per event, but an increase in the number of fatal events resulting from growing urbanization in North Africa. Ultimately, this study offers the first harmonized empirical basis for understanding flood mortality in a region where demographic, urban, and hydro-climatic dynamics differ significantly from other Mediterranean areas.
How to cite: Vinet, F., Tramblay, Y., Raclot, D., Mahé, G., Fehri, N., El Mehdi Saidi, M., Boutaghane, H., and Boulmaiz, T.: Flood related mortality in North Africa : first outcomes of a new comprehensive database, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-8, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-8, 2026.
Flood events are among the most widespread natural hazards in France and are responsible for significant damage each year. Although public safety remains a priority, socio-economic impact is emphasised in risk prevention. The purpose is to focus on human vulnerability, through fatality, as an index for evaluating public policies. Based on previous research focused on the French Mediterranean region (BD Vinct-In see Vinet et al., 2022; Boissier, 2013), and within the framework of the EUropean Flood Fatalities named database (Petrucci et al., 2019; Papagiannaki et al. 2022), the study, as part of the FORESEE research project, seeks to extend data collection to mainland France and Corsica over the period 1980–2025. This database enables spatial analysis and temporal distribution of fatalities related to various historical flood events that have occurred across the territory. The scope includes flash floods (in Mediterranean and mountain regions), marine flooding, river floods, urban runoff, and tsunami. It also highlights geographical dynamics of different types of flooding (catchment area characteristics, temporal patterns), while allowing comparisons between fatalities seasonality, intense pluvio-hydrological events occurrence, and the effectiveness of public policies in risk management (river monitoring, weather alert, risk awareness, etc.). Finally, it provides insights into victim profiles, circumstances and locations of death, behaviours, as well as the evolution of human vulnerability over time and space.
How to cite: Nardon, E. and Vinet, F.: Flood related mortality in France over the period 1980-2025, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-9, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-9, 2026.
Extreme weather events generate effects that transcend the physical realm, producing economic, social, and political consequences whose magnitude depends both on the intensity of the phenomenon and on the exposure and vulnerability of the affected societies. The literature has identified various mechanisms through which these events can alter social dynamics and collective behaviors, including political responses associated with society's perception of institutional risk management and its impacts (Burke, Hsiang, and Miguel, 2015). In this context, analyzing political responses to extreme events provides a way to understand the adaptive capacity and institutional resilience of exposed territories.
This study analyzes the relationship between flooding episodes and changes in electoral outcomes in municipalities along the Spanish Mediterranean coast. This area is a particularly relevant case study because it has been the site of numerous episodes of intense rainfall that have resulted in serious human and material consequences. Additionally, it is characterized by a high concentration of population and infrastructure, and a complex territorial organization, increases exposure and vulnerability to these types of events.
Based on the integration of databases on floods and electoral results, this study examines: (1) the possible relationship between precursor variables linked to flood events and variables of electoral response; (2) the differences in electoral changes according to political blocs; and (3) the spatiotemporal variability of these effects among autonomous communities. Furthermore, the analysis incorporates a multi-level perspective, in order to assess whether the political attribution of the impact varies according to the institutional scale and the distribution of powers in areas such as territorial planning, civil protection, water management or emergency response.
Results suggest that the temporal proximity between the occurrence of a flood and the holding of elections is associated with greater variation in electoral results, which points to a greater sensitivity of electoral behavior to recent events. This response would not be homogeneous between political options, observing differentiated electoral effects between blocks. However, the power/opposition effect seems to be more relevant. Likewise, it is expected that there will be spatial heterogeneity in the electoral response between autonomous communities, depending on their institutional, social characteristics and political context.
How to cite: García Fernández, E., Gil-Guirado, S., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., and Montávez, J. P.: The political attribution of risk: floods and election results, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-75, 2026.
One of the key lessons learned from the catastrophic floods that occurred on October 29, 2024, and caused 238 deaths in Spain, was the need to raise public awareness about flooding, both to improve prevention and to enhance emergency response (Llasat, 2024). In this vein, years ago the GAMA group at the University of Barcelona (UB) developed a free mobile app (FLOODUP) to be used as a citizen science tool, allowing the public to submit observations about floods—both in real time and from the past—as well as bad practices or risk mitigation measures (Llasat-Botija et al., 2025). The app also includes explanations to improve users’ flood risk awareness; it can be used anywhere in the world and is available in Spanish, Catalan, Basque, English, and French.
The “In the Footsteps of Water” project, led by the General Directorate of Water under the Ministry for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge, was launched in response to the 2024 floods with the aim of promoting civil society participation in improving understanding of flood risk. To this end, it was decided to use the FLOODUP app, which was adjusted for the project. The campaign, which is still ongoing, involves submitting photographs of historical floodwater marks, accompanied by information on their location, the height of the mark, and the event itself. It also includes questions about the flood risk perception of the citizen submitting the images. The campaign has developed educational materials, individual worksheets, and worksheets to promote group participation, which can be found at https://www.miteco.gob.es/es/agua/temas/gestion-de-los-riesgos-de-inundacion/cnih/tras-huellas-agua.html.
Participation in the project helps preserve historical memory and shows the citizens how high a flood can rise. At the same time, as regards its citizen science component, the project aims to incorporate the information gathered into the cartography of flood-prone areas.
Llasat, M.C., 2024. Spain’s flash floods reveal a desperate need for improved mitigation efforts. Nature, WORLD VIEW, 26 November 2024 Nature 635, 787 (2024). doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-024-03825-0.
Llasat-Botija, M., L. Esbrí, T. Rigo, M.C. Llasat, 2025. The Application of Citizen Science to Evaluate the Emergency and the Response of the Population in the October 2019 Flash Flood Event in the Francolí River (NE Spain). Water 2025, 17, 610. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17050610
How to cite: Llasat, M.-C., Llasat-Botija, M., Aroca-Jiménez, E., and Sánchez Martínez, F. J.: In the footsteps of Water, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-87, 2026.
The presentation focuses on the interplay between uncertainty in probabilistic forecasts and uncertainty in public response for an impeding impactful flood event. Exaggeration of the frequency and magnitude of impactful events under the current climate variability and change make this analysis important for improved response and adaptation for the forecast and disaster management agencies worldwide.
The theoretical work is based on relationships obtained from surveys of communities in the United States and on established error characterizations of probabilistic forecasts of impactful event occurrence. The focus of the analysis is to estimate the most effective time to issue evacuation statements for a forecast, impeding impactful event. The methodology allows for adaptive estimation in real time. The work is based on the formulation of Georgakakos (2025) with extensions on the characterization of uncertainty. It combines decision theory solutions embedded within ensemble Monte Carlo simulations to characterize uncertainty. Time is normalized to allow for a wide range of forecast lead times and event occurrence times from present time. The following Figure, adopted from the reference mentioned, indicates the component processes considered.
Open Access Reference: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07540-5
Initial results highlight the importance of the time to complete the evacuation and the threshold of probability set by the agencies for action on the timing decision for evacuation statement. Higher time specificity of the forecast probability of occurrence of the impeding event allows for longer times from present for issuing the evacuation statement. As the time of event impact nears with non-negligible occurrence probability at the decision time, higher risk aversion (using high percentile of the decision function versus using expected value of that function) shortens the time to issue the evacuation statement.
How to cite: Georgakakos, K.: Incorporating Forecast and Public Response Uncertainty in Agency Timing Decisions for Evacuation Statements, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-85, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-85, 2026.
Under climate change, semi-arid Mediterranean regions such as the Quípar basin (SE Spain) are increasingly exposed to the combined risks of floods and droughts, further exacerbated by land-use changes. Addressing these interconnected hydroclimatic extremes requires integrated, catchment-scale strategies that combine biophysical effectiveness with social acceptability. This study presents a participatory co-design process to develop contrasting climate adaptation scenarios in the Quípar basin, combining Nature-based Solutions (NbS) and grey infrastructure. The ultimate aim is to enhance stakeholder understanding of local and regional impacts and support the selection of effective adaptation pathways.
Through semi-structured interviews, 35 stakeholders from key sectors (farmers, policymakers, NGOs, researchers, and local communities) were engaged to identify flood and drought hotspots, perceived drivers of hydroclimatic risk, and existing and potential adaptation measures. Stakeholders also assessed their preferences, spatial suitability, and key barriers to implementation. In total, 54 land-based measures were identified, including 34 NbS and 20 grey infrastructure measures (21 addressing both floods and droughts, 9 targeting floods only, and 4 droughts only). The most widely supported measures included ground cover practices, reforestation, and terracing. The main flood hotspot was consistently located in the middle reach of the Quípar River, while drought risk was perceived as affecting the entire catchment. Key perceived drivers of increasing hydroclimatic risk included climate change, land-use change, and shifts in agricultural practices, while major perceived barriers to implementation were limited social awareness, economic constraints, and bureaucratic complexity.
Building on these results, two co-design workshops (n = 35) were conducted to develop three contrasting adaptation scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): (i) an NbS-oriented scenario (SSP1), (ii) a business-as-usual scenario combining NbS and grey infrastructure (SSP2), and (iii) a technology-driven scenario focused on grey infrastructure (SSP5). Participants collaboratively prioritised and spatially allocated adaptation measures, fostering integrated spatial thinking, social learning, and awareness of synergies and trade-offs.
Although the three scenarios differ in their chosen measures, several functions overlap: all address flood-prone areas through targeted interventions; river and floodplain restoration in the NbS scenario, channelisation in the technological scenario, and vegetation clearance in the business-as-usual scenario. Upstream water retention is promoted through ponds and landscape features in the NbS scenario, and through check dams in the technological and business-as-usual scenarios. Similarly, aquifer recharge is enhanced through wetlands in the NbS scenario and through managed infiltration in the technological scenario.The scenarios also diverge: the NbS scenario prioritises reducing water demand and restoring vegetation (reforestation, cover crops, pastoralism), the technological scenario focuses on increasing water supply through infrastructure (reservoirs, water transfers, desalination, wastewater reuse, expanded drip irrigation), while the business-as-usual scenario occupies an intermediate position, with practices such as grazing, drought-tolerant crops, and swales without substantially reducing irrigation or enhancing vegetation cover.
In a next phase, the impacts of these scenarios will be quantified using hydrological modelling to assess their performance under current and future climate conditions. Model results will be shared and discussed with the stakeholder groups to further support integrated spatial planning for effective climate adaptation.
How to cite: Bosch, C., de Vente, J., and Eekhout, J.: Participatory co-design of climate adaptation scenarios for flood and drought mitigation in a semi-arid Mediterranean catchment, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-93, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-93, 2026.
This work analyzes Tropical Storm Delta (2005), its extratropical transition and its associated impacts, had it developed over ocean temperatures 2 ºC higher than those given, characteristics of a warmer future climate. The focus will be on the impacts of the cyclone on the Canary Islands (Spain) and how they would change in this scenario due to the influence of warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs). To this end, two simulations performed with the high-resolution HARMONIE-AROME model are considered: a control simulation based on initial and boundary conditions from the ERA5 reanalysis, and a warm simulation where a disturbance of +2 ºC is added to the SSTs. The economic impact is studied employing data from the Spanish Insurance Compensation Consortium and following their official criterion to consider regions at risk due to atypical cyclonic storms. The results show that Delta becomes a deeper and more intense cyclone in the warmer scenario, reaching hurricane status. Consequently, its extratropical transition becomes a much more severe phenomenon, with a significantly greater impact on the Canary Islands. This occurs in the type of precipitation, coastal impacts, and especially strong wind gusts, which cause a 29% increase in the potential economic losses due to Delta. These results are particularly relevant, since they quantify the increase in economic damage caused by a tropical cyclone due to the oceanic warming projected in future scenarios.
How to cite: Gómez-Plasencia, P., Rodríguez-Acosta, E. J., González-Alemán, J. J., Calvo-Sancho, C., Díaz-Fernández, J., Montoro-Mendoza, A., Bolgiani, P., Martín, M. L., and Gómara, Í.: Potential impacts of Tropical Storm Delta in the Canary Islands under warmer ocean conditions, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-58, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-58, 2026.
Many studies have examined flood-related mortality in many climatic contexts (USA, Australia, Mediterranean regions, etc.). While tropical cyclones have also been the subject of epidemiological studies, a gap remains on the wind-related fatalities in Europe despite the existence of fairly general databases (EM-DAT). Despite the significant human impact of these phenomena, data remains fragmented and scattered across press archives, institutional reports, and specific databases. A study conducted as part of a Foresee research project addresses the victims linked to wind phenomena. Following the FFEM DB protocol (Petrucci et al., 2019), a comprehensive database of wind-related deaths in France for the period 1980-2025 has been built including fatalities caused by windstorms, tornadoes, thunderstorm gusts, and episodes of heavy swell. For each fatality, the DB addresses the circumstances of the deaths and identifies vulnerability factors. The database also put together variables related to the spatio-temporal context, individual profile, and circumstances of the incident (time, location, etc.). The presentation aims at presenting a first statistical analysis of this database to highlight the highest-risk situations and their evolution over time. It helps to better identify the most exposed populations, frequent patterns of mortality, and to define prone areas and the seasonality of wind phenomena.
How to cite: Le Golvan, A. and Vinet, F.: First results from a wind-related fatalities French national database over the period 1980-2025, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-10, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-10, 2026.
In the near future, wind and solar generation are projected to play a key role in Europe's energy sector. An example is the Spanish roadmap to produce around 80% of its electricity from renewables by 2030, dominated by both sources.
However, the transition to these envisioned renewable power systems poses a formidable challenge. For instance, with the rising share of variable renewable energy, the power system becomes increasingly vulnerable during periods of very low renewable energy production ("energy droughts") or very high load demand. Specific weather patterns may give rise to so-called compound extreme events, characterized by the simultaneous occurrence of several hazards, such as a scarcity of solar and/or wind resources combined with high load demand. The occurrence of these events and the response of the power system must be carefully evaluated to optimally define mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite the importance of this issue, there is no consensus on the definition and identification procedures for extreme events.
In this work, the occurrence of solar PV, wind and compound solar PV and wind energy drought events in Spain is analyzed using a novel identification procedure, based on the SPA algorithm. This procedure accounts for the high seasonal variability of the renewable resources in the study region. The study is conducted on a daily basis, using SHIRENDA—an enhanced, open-access database of renewable energy resources in Spain. This database provides wind and solar PV capacity factors (CFs) for the Spanish NUTS3 regions, covering the 1990–2020 period. Special attention is paid to the analysis of the weather patterns associated with the identified events, which are obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis. Finally, this study is part of the WE-Resyst project, which aims to design a renewable energy power system for Spain that is resilient to weather and climate variability and change.
The results showed, firstly, that the proposed event identification method provides more events outside the winter season compared to other reference methods. Secondly, solar PV events showed a mean and maximum duration of 1.2 and 4 days, respectively, compared to 1.4 and 7 days for wind energy. Distinctive weather patterns were identified behind these events. Furthermore, the results showed that: 1) compound solar PV and wind events occur at specific dates, mostly unrelated to the dates of individual solar PV or wind events, and 2) the intensity of compound events, in terms of renewable generation deficit, is lower compared to single-resource events. These results are explained by the existence of a high temporal complementarity between wind and solar resources in the study region during the winter and summer seasons, although with significant interannual variability. As a general conclusion, the characteristics of the solar and wind resources in the study region make the Spanish power system less exposed than others to weather extremes.
How to cite: Pozo-Vazquez, D., Santos-Alamillos, F., Pinilla-Ortiz, L., and Ruiz-Arias, J. A.: Characterizing solar and wind energy droughts in Spain: Identification and weather patterns, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-83, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-83, 2026.
Seasonal forecasts represent a promising tool to support water resources management in the Mediterranean region, where water availability is increasingly affected by climate change and the occurrence of extreme events. Knowing in advance the availability of water resources allows for better management of water’s multiple uses, including agriculture and renewable hydropower production.
This study presents an assessment of ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecasts (51 members, 0.4° grid spacing, 6h time resolution, seasonally aggregated, with lead times from 1 to 7 months) over Italy, with a focus on their potential applicability for the prediction of water resource availability and, ultimately, hydropower production.
The forecasts cover the period 2018-2024, while a hindcast period 1994-2016 is considered for bias correction purposes and as baseline reference. The forecast performance has been evaluated for 2 m air temperature and precipitation using a high-resolution observational reference dataset from Ispra (IspraObs). This dataset, covering the period 1951-2024 with a spatial resolution of 1km, has been upscaled to 0.4° of resolution, using a conservative remapping algorithm. The performance metrics used include the Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC), correlating forecast and observed anomalies with respect to the climatology of the observational dataset, the RMSE Skill Score (RMSESS), and the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS), which compares the cumulative distribution function of forecasts with the one of the reference climatology.
Simple Bias correction approaches, i.e. additive mean adjustment for temperature and multiplicative mean ratio for precipitation, calibrated using hindcast data, have proven to increase the performance of the forecast, particularly for temperature and, to a lesser extent, for precipitation.
Results indicate that temperature forecasts show moderate predictive skill over the country, particularly in summer, with ACC average values above 0.3 at a 4-month lead time, suggesting a reasonable ability to reproduce the observed climatic interannual variability. In contrast, precipitation forecasts show lower and spatially heterogeneous skill, reflecting the intrinsic difficulty of predicting precipitation in the Mediterranean region. In this case, the seasonal forecast skill seems no better than climatology for lead times greater than 1 month, with quite poor performances for lead times greater than 4 months.
A more specific verification has been conducted over the river basin of Tevere, Central Italy, which is of particular interest for the energy sector in terms of hydropower production. The results show good performances at 3-month lead time in summer: ACC values are in the range 0.6-1, while RMSESS is around 0.4.
Building on these results, future work will focus on integrating the bias-corrected seasonal forecasts into a hydrological modeling chain, to provide estimates of water resource availability for Tevere river basin, at a monthly time scale. This enables the assessment of forecast-driven streamflow predictions and their potential use for optimizing hydropower production in Italy. Such an approach is highly relevant in the context of climate change, as improved seasonal predictability could enhance adaptation strategies for water resource management and energy production in the Mediterranean region.
How to cite: Gambini, E., Sperati, S., Pesce, M., Collino, E., and Gargiulo, A.: Assessing Seasonal Weather Forecasts for Water Resource Management and Hydropower Production, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-32, 2026.
The tourism-oriented Mediterranean Basin is increasingly exposed to intensified thermal stress under ongoing climate change, potentially affecting human health, outdoor activities, and tourism sustainability. Coastal tourism destinations along the eastern Adriatic are particularly vulnerable due to their climatic predisposition, which governs the duration of the tourist season and directly impacts the optimization of infrastructure and overall capacity utilization. This study assesses spatiotemporal changes in thermal risk across major tourism destinations along the eastern Adriatic coast using human biometeorological indicators derived from long-term meteorological observations. This study examines long-term thermal comfort conditions and trends in four highly visited eastern Adriatic destinations and evaluates their climatic suitability for both beach and sightseeing tourism.
Human thermal conditions were evaluated using the modified Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (mPET) index, allowing detailed assessment of heat stress intensity under Mediterranean conditions. Trends in the frequency, duration, and persistence of thermal stress categories were examined in the period 1996-2020 across all destinations.
Results show that over the last 25 years, monthly mean mPET values have increased in every month except May, while severe and extreme heat stress (mPET ≥ 35 °C) has become more frequent, especially in July and August. Although local geography and maritime influences create slight variations between cities, every location shows the same clear trend: summers consistently become uncomfortably hot. This thermal shift increases the touristic attractiveness of the shoulder seasons when comfortable conditions are more frequent. While summer still offers the most favorable climatic conditions for beach tourism, the frequency of beach-comfortable conditions has declined this season. Conversely, thermal conditions for sightseeing have become more favorable in April and November, while deteriorating significantly in September. Surprisingly, a downward trend in May's mPET values indicates that this month is becoming less suitable for the beach but increasingly favorable for sightseeing.
The outcomes suggest increasing vulnerability of East Adriatic coastal tourism systems to climate change, particularly regarding human exposure to prolonged daytime heat stress during the peak tourist season. Our analysis also indicates that, despite the risks of climate change, the tourism sector has a unique 'window of opportunity' to extend the beach season from spring into autumn. Since the shoulder seasons are becoming more comfortable for sightseeing, there is a real chance to adapt by combining the region’s rich cultural heritage with these better weather windows—especially as modern tourists look for more than just a traditional beach holiday.
How to cite: Malinović-Milićević, S., Micić, J., Denda, S., and Pecelj, M.: Adapting Adriatic Tourism to Climate Change: Challenges of Summer Heat and Opportunities for Seasonal Extension, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-16, 2026.
In recent years, the intensification of extreme weather events and increasing exposure to climate risks have made it increasingly clear that organisations need to develop adequate adaptive capacities. The consequences of such events affect not only natural ecosystems, but also operational continuity, resource management, supply chains, and the economic and social sustainability of organisations. In this context, the ability to anticipate, understand and manage the impacts arising from environmental changes represents a strategic priority for public, private and third-sector organisations. Despite the growing attention devoted to the issue, empirical evidence on the factors that foster the development of adaptive capacities and pathways to resilience at the organisational level remains limited (Berkhout et al., 2006).
This study analyses the main determinants of organisational adaptation, focusing on the role of climate awareness and risk perception (Todaro et al., 2021), pressure from stakeholders (Buysse & Verbeke, 2003), and the integration of environmental issues into decision-making and strategic planning processes (Judge & Douglas, 1998). The analysis is based on data collected via a survey of organisations operating across different economic sectors, institutional settings and geographical areas, including private firms, public bodies and third sector organisations.
Preliminary results suggest that a greater perception of the risks associated with climate change is linked to a higher uptake of adaptation practices. Stakeholder pressure also emerges as a key driver for implementing strategies aimed at managing vulnerabilities and reducing exposure to environmental risks. These strategies include risk assessment and monitoring, the use of information and tools to support decision-making, investment in the development of internal skills, and the integration of environmental considerations into organisational processes (Berkhout et al., 2006). The evidence also suggests that organisations characterised by greater adaptive capacity, a stronger focus on environmental issues, greater investment in training and skills development, and higher levels of innovation and organisational learning tend to develop higher levels of resilience, strengthening their ability to respond to the disruptions and uncertainties generated by climate risks (Ambulkar et al., 2015; Gibson & Birkinshaw, 2004).
The study contributes to the scientific debate on climate adaptation by highlighting the role of cognitive, organisational and institutional factors in building adaptive capacity. The findings also provide useful guidance for managers and public decision-makers interested in promoting adaptation pathways, strengthening organisational resilience and supporting the transition towards more sustainable development models capable of addressing the challenges posed by climate uncertainty.
Keywords: climate adaptation; organizational resilience; adaptive capacity; stakeholder pressure; climate risk management.
How to cite: Lombardi, S., Giuttari, E., and Martellozzo, F.: Addressing Climate Change: An Analysis of Organizational Adaptation Practices, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-88, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-88, 2026.
Urban heat stress is a growing public-health concern across European cities under climate change. Yet most continental assessments operate at kilometre scales that cannot resolve the intra-urban contrasts that determine who is actually exposed. We use the recently published UrbClim 100 m dataset (Souverijns et al., 2026, Data in Brief, 65, 112497, doi:10.1016/j.dib.2026.112497) for Bucharest, Romania (1.7 million residents) to quantify present (2011–2020) and projected (2021–2040, 2041–2060) heat stress under two climate scenarios: Current Policies (CurPol, +2.9 °C by 2100) and Green Sustainability (GS, +1.7 °C). We analyzed days with wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) above 28°C (onset of significant physiological heat stress) and 31°C (extreme stress with health risk even at low activity), annual lost working hours for intense, moderate, and light outdoor work and their economic impact. Under present climate, WBGT exceeds 28°C on 15–24 days yr-1across most of the city (cool areas < 3 days in northern Bucharest), while WBGT > 31°C is currently rare and patchy (< 3 days yr-1 in scattered hotspots). By mid-century, days above 28°C rise by 1.8–17.8 per year under CurPol and by 0.8–12.5 under GS. WBGT > 31°C reach up to 6.5 days yr-1 for CurPol and 4.4 days yr-1 for GS. In economic terms, an outdoor construction worker in Bucharest loses about 136 hours per year to heat on average (~€800 at current Romanian wages), with a intra-urban gradient from 10–40 hours per worker per year in the cool northern areas to 160–220 hours per worker per year in the centre of Bucharest and former industrial areas. By 2041–2060 the city mean rises to 244 hours under CurPol (~€1,440) and 206 hours under GS (~€1,220). Moderate intensity urban occupations (services, road maintenance, retail and delivery) show smaller but similarly structured increases. These results give Bucharest's public health authorities and administrations a map of where targeted adaptation (urban greening, cooling-centre siting, outdoor-work rescheduling) would reduce heat-related impact and productivity loss.
How to cite: Pîrloagă, R., Antonescu, B., Mărmureanu, L., Ene, D., and Dumitru, A.: Heat stress and outdoor-labour losses in Bucharest, Romania, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-36, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-36, 2026.
Coastal flooding in urbanized Mediterranean areas is increasingly driven by compound meteo-marine events in which waves, storm surges, astronomical tides, and coastal exposure interact to generate severe impacts. This study reconstructs the causes, dynamics, and impacts of the coastal flooding that affected the Ionian coast of Calabria, southern Italy, during Cyclone Harry (19-22 January 2026). The analysis adopts a forensic hydrology perspective, combining multi-source documentary damage data with high-resolution atmospheric, oceanographic, and topographic datasets to identify the dominant physical drivers of the event and the most affected coastal sectors of the study area.
Cyclone Harry was first characterized at the Mediterranean scale using mean sea level pressure, 10 m wind fields, and wave spectral partitions. The storm developed from a rapidly intensifying low-pressure system over anomalously warm Mediterranean waters and generated severe south-easterly waves across the Ionian basin. Deep water meteo-marine conditions were then examined along approximately 250 km of the Ionian coast of Calabria at the 150 m isobath. An energy-based approach was applied to quantify the cumulative contributions of wind waves, primary swells, secondary swells, wind forcing, and static water-level variations. In addition, site-specific peak Total Water Level values along the emerged coastline were estimated by combining astronomical tide, inverse barometer effect, wind set-up, and wave run-up. Finally, multi-source documentary damage data were used to calculate a Damage Index (DI), which was compared with the Coastal Index (CI), a metric designed to identify the most critical littoral zones based on both hazard and exposure indicators.
Results show that wave action was the dominant forcing mechanism responsible for coastal flooding and infrastructure damage. Total wave energy reached values close to 3 × 10¹⁰ J/m in the southern sector of the study area and was mainly associated with primary swell, which contributed more than 70% of total wave energy along the entire coast and locally exceeded 90%. Static sea-level variations and wind setup played a secondary role, whereas wave run-up accounted for approximately 85-90% of peak Total Water Level in the damaged municipalities. Estimated peak Total Water Level ranged from 3.47 m to 5.03 m, with the most critical phase concentrated between late 20 January and early 21 January. Damage records indicate that 29 of the 50 coastal municipalities along the analyzed coastline reported impacts, especially to waterfronts, roads, seaside resorts, ports, utilities, and coastal buildings. Finally, the comparison between DI and CI highlights that the most critical littoral zones were severely hit by the cyclone Harry.
The integrated reconstruction highlights the importance of combining physical hazard modelling with documentary impact evidence to support emergency response, coastal planning, and climate adaptation strategies in highly exposed Mediterranean coastal regions.
How to cite: Aristodemo, F., Caloiero, T., Mercuri, M., and Petrucci, O.: Assessing Coastal Flood Hazard and Damage from Cyclone Harry along the Calabrian Ionian Coast, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-53, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-53, 2026.
Floods represent one of the most frequent and damaging natural hazards worldwide, requiring accurate spatial prediction tools to support risk management and urban planning. This study aims to predict and map flood-prone areas in the Calabria region (southern Italy) by integrating historical flood data, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach, and to assess the potential impacts on road networks and urban areas.
A comprehensive catalogue of flood damage events recorded between 2000 and 2026 was compiled from documentary sources and systematically analyzed within a GIS environment. A total of 315 georeferenced flood occurrence points were identified. Of these, 70% were randomly selected for model calibration using a balanced training dataset, while the remaining 30% were used for validation.
The MaxEnt model was trained by combining the flood inventory with twelve flood-conditioning factors, including lithology, soil texture, land use, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), precipitation, elevation, slope, topographic position index (TPI), sediment transport index (STI), topographic wetness index (TWI), drainage density, and distance to streams. The model output is a spatially explicit flood susceptibility map, classifying the study area into different probability levels of flood occurrence.
Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with its associated area under the curve (AUC). The results indicate very good predictive capability, with success and prediction rates of 94.9% and 93.8%, respectively.
Finally, the susceptibility map was integrated with spatial datasets of road networks and urbanized areas through GIS-based overlay analysis to assess the exposure of these elements to different susceptibility classes. This analysis highlights critical infrastructure and built-up areas potentially affected by flooding, providing valuable information for risk mitigation and spatial planning strategies
How to cite: Conforti, M. and Petrucci, O.: Flood Susceptibility Mapping and Impact Assessment on Road Networks and Urban Areas in the Calabria Region, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-57, 2026.
Power systems with growing shares of wind and solar are increasingly exposed to weather-driven generation deficits, yet robust strategies to reduce renewable energy drought risk remain unclear. Using 1950–2025 pan-European capacity factor data and a threshold-free intensity–duration–frequency framework across European countries, we quantify drought risk under alternative wind–solar mixes. We find that balanced portfolios centered around 50% wind and 50% solar consistently perform near the optimum across countries, severities and event durations, capturing most of the achievable resilience gains. The remaining risk is concentrated in winter and associated with a limited set of blocking and NAO-like circulation regimes. These results identify a simple and physically grounded design principle for more climate-resilient renewable power systems.
How to cite: Jerez, S., Espinosa, N., Maimó-Far, A., Bloomfield, H., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., Montávez, J. P., and Trigo, R. M.: The champion 50–50 strategy against renewable energy droughts in Europe, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-73, 2026.
Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of compound environmental stressors in the Mediterranean region, including heatwaves and degraded indoor air quality. While their physical impacts are well established, their influence on complex cognitive performance and high-level decision-making remains insufficiently quantified.
This contribution presents a methodological framework to assess cognitive resilience under environmental stress, leveraging structured competitive activities as natural laboratories (Künn et al., 2023). In this study, chess is used as a proxy for strategic decision-making, enabling move-level evaluation of human performance through comparison with AI engine recommendations. Quantitative indicators, such as Best-Move Gap and Average Centipawn Loss, are integrated with indoor environmental measurements (e.g., temperature, CO₂ concentration) to characterize exposure conditions during competitive play.
The framework is illustrated through its application to selected Italian chess tournaments, where environmental parameters were monitored throughout competition sessions. Preliminary analyses indicate that variations in indoor environmental conditions may be associated with measurable changes in decision quality metrics, suggesting a potential sensitivity of high-level cognitive performance to environmental stressors.
In addition, participant-reported data collected via questionnaires are used to complement objective performance indicators, allowing for a multidimensional interpretation that accounts for subjective perception, experience, and contextual factors. This integrated approach provides a novel pathway to quantify cognitive resilience in real-world settings and contributes to a better understanding of climate-related impacts on human performance in cognitively demanding activities.
Steffen Künn, Juan Palacios, Nico Pestel (2023) Indoor Air Quality and Strategic Decision Making. Management Science 69(9):5354-5377. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4643
How to cite: Dietrich, S., Felici, T., Mascitelli, A., Buso, M., Tambasco, N., Agamennone, A., Di Giuseppantonio, I., Rocchetti, S., Di Carlo, P., and Prestileo, F.: Assessing Human Cognitive Resilience to Environmental Stressors: An AI-Driven Chess-Based Framework in the Mediterranean Context, 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-100, 2026.
Climate change is increasing the need to enhance urban resilience to flood risk, particularly with regard to impacts on individuals. Over the past decades, several approaches have been proposed to address this challenge, many of which have focused on the implementation of structural measures aimed at reducing flood hazard. At the same time, growing awareness has emerged regarding the importance of understanding individual risk perception and knowledge of protective measures, as people's behavior during flood events can act as a risk amplifier.
Within this context, a systematic analysis of people's actions when interacting with floodwaters can provide valuable insights into the wide range of behavioral dynamics occurring during flood events. Despite the opportunities offered by such investigations, flood research still tends to focus primarily on affected individuals, namely those who are injured or killed. However, these represent only a subset of all people involved in a flood event, as most individuals who interact with floodwaters experience no significant physical consequences (i.e., unharmed individuals).
Building on a survey administered to citizens to investigate the perception of flood-prone landmarks and the actions they would undertake in four emergency scenarios, this study compares these responses with the results of a systematic analysis of flood events and associated human behaviors during urban floods that affected the city of Bari (southern Italy) between 2004 and 2020. The findings reveal a strong correspondence between perceived flood-prone landmarks and actual flooded locations. Moreover, the comparison between observed behaviors during flood events and responses to the emergency scenarios provides valuable insights into people's decision-making processes. The results suggest that incorporating the analysis of human behaviors, including hazardous actions, into flood event catalogues can represent a significant source of information for emergency management and the communication of protective measures.
How to cite: Totaro, V., Santoro, S., and Petrucci, O.: Investigating the potential of a comprehensive analysis of individual behaviors during urban floods: evidence from the city of Bari (southern Italy), 19th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Risks, Murcia, Spain, 6–9 Oct 2026, Plinius19-99, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-plinius19-99, 2026.
