Insights from the development of national scale Nature Futures Framework scenarios in both Switzerland and Peru

Utilizing the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) to produce operational scenarios for policy and decision-making requires methodological innovation to bridge conceptual ambitions with practical implementation. This presentation shares insights from developing NFF-based scenarios in two national-scale research projects: ValPar.CH in Switzerland and NASCENT-PERU in Peru. Both projects centred on area-based conservation under socio-environmental change, explicitly embedding policy targets such as the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework's 30x30 commitment.

In our experience, a central challenge in applying the NFF is overcoming ‘status-quo’ thinking to generate truly imaginative and transformative visions of desirable futures, which requires diverse and carefully designed participatory processes. We employed multi-regional stakeholder workshops to capture perspectives across different geographic and social contexts, borrowing planning tools such as the three-horizons framework to help participants envision distinct alternative futures and chart pathways from current conditions. Moving from qualitative visions to quantifiable scenarios also requires additional methodological creativity: we utilized interactive web applications to code workshop content into NFF dimensions and elicit expected changes in socio-environmental drivers. Operationalizing these quantified scenarios in simulation models enabled systematic comparison of alternative conservation strategies, revealing trade-offs and synergies across NFF-relevant indicators such as biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Throughout this process, we encountered recurring challenges. Notably, we identified a tension between some dimensions of participant visions, such as continuation of environmentally damaging economic activities, and the nature-positive intent of scenarios, which may not be fully reconcilable. Additionally, a gap remains in meaningfully assessing predicted outcomes with respect to the NFF "nature as culture" dimension, which is contextual and resistant to standardized metrics.

A crucial lesson concerned stakeholder engagement. Maintaining meaningful participation throughout lengthy scenario development processes benefits from returning results to stakeholders in timely fashion, ahead of scientific publications, as well as employing interactive visualization methods to make technical outputs accessible and relevant to diverse audiences.

By reflecting critically on these methodological experiences, this presentation contributes practical insights into applying the NFF in different national contexts, demonstrates approaches for integrating plural perspectives into quantitative scenario work, and identifies key opportunities and obstacles for linking the NFF with conservation policy frameworks.