At the crossroads of biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people, and equity: parsing patterns for conservation

In our post-GBF context, land protection is looked towards as a feasible, tangible part of the solution to the looming global biodiversity crisis, with commitments to protect 30% of the world by 2030. The selection of lands to be prioritized is a multi-dimensional process which balances multiple priorities. Broadly, these priorities are explicitly acknowledged in the GBF’s 2050 Goals, including Goals A (“Protect & Restore”; protection for nature’s sake) & B (“Prosper with Nature”; emphasizing ecosystem services/ES). Spatial conservation planning should therefore balance socioeconomics and biological factors; however, to optimize this balance on a given landscape, spatial layers mapping the linkages of biodiversity & ES are required but are generally lacking. With the 30x30 deadline fast approaching, in the absence of such knowledge, we can use spatial prioritization to pinpoint potential intersections. Here, we compare and contrast the conservation priorities of Goals A & B, identifying gaps and overlaps in the distributions of two of the GBF’s main ideological axes. Using Europe as our study system, we prioritize land using species distribution model-based estimates for over 10,000 floral and 700 faunal species to quantify biodiversity and distributions of key ES (i.e., pollination, carbon sequestration, flood control, air quality, and foraging). We classify land along a two-dimensional spectrum of biodiversity & ES importance, identifying areas with high potential for both priorities. Further, we assess the impact of incorporating an additional GBF goal into considerations: Goal C (“Share benefits fairly”). Access to green space, and the overall equitable distribution of ES is increasingly known to be vital for the health and stability of populations, but studies pertaining to equity of access have been limited in scope. We next identify zones of “nature access deserts” based on the spatial distribution of current demand and accessibility - ultimately pinpointing habitat for protection that would maximize conservation priorities including equity (Goal C). The 30x30 movement represents an unprecedented coordinated commitment to habitat protection worldwide. Locating space at the crossroads of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and equity will be indispensable in ensuring this commitment be successful for both nature and people.