Science-informed governance for effectively protecting marine biodiversity in EBSAs

Effective governance instruments are crucial for protecting marine biodiversity in the context of climate change. For governance instruments to be effective, especially under conditions of changing ecosystems in the medium and long-term, they must be informed by science – whether it is data on past changes or modelling dynamic futures. With the BBNJ agreement entering into force in 2026, numerous open questions need to be addressed, such as which area-based management tools will be used to protect (dynamic) marine biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdictions and which areas are the first to be protected. Ecologically or Biologically Significant Marine Areas (EBSAs) are described and identified through a scientific and technical process under the CBD. Internationally, they are seen as potential areas to establish marine protected areas or other area-based management tools under the BBNJ. 

In this presentation, we show how modelling habitat changes of high seas EBSAs can shed light on effective governance measures for these areas. We use habitat suitability models to quantify the environmental conditions unique to each EBSA and project those conditions into the coming century at different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). This assesses whether the conditions are maintained within or move beyond the EBSA boundaries. We show that there are different types of EBSAs based on the severity of their forecasted habitat change and thus categorise them to derive protection schemes. We present our notion of tailor-made protection schemes for each of the categories, where static and dynamic tools are used and combined differently to protect the marine biodiversity that is currently inhabiting these EBSAs. Our protection schemes anticipate changes in the dynamic marine system to protect biodiversity more effectively.  

Thereby we show how bridging governance research and biodiversity modelling can make marine biodiversity protection more effective and future-proof. Such approaches inform stakeholders of effective governance measures to protect valuable ecosystems and how to reach the GBF goal.