Balancing Nature Protection and Restoration: Assessing Social and Ecological Impacts to Inform Equitable Conservation Policy

Achieving transformative biodiversity outcomes requires more than ecological evidence alone, it demands trust, dialogue, and co-produced knowledge between scientists, policymakers, practitioners, and the communities most affected by conservation decisions. This research examines how conservation strategies that prioritise either nature protection or restoration shape social–ecological outcomes in island and coastal contexts, with a central focus on equity, communication, and stakeholder participation.

The project develops a predictive social–ecological equity model that integrates global biodiversity data with indicators of livelihood access, procedural fairness, participation, and local wellbeing. While the model identifies potential trade-offs between ecological performance and social justice, its purpose extends beyond prediction: it functions as a shared resource to facilitate conversations between rights holders, conservation practitioners, and decision-makers.

To strengthen trust and co-production, the modelling is embedded within two participatory case studies, in the Cayman Islands and the United Kingdom, where qualitative methods including interviews, focus groups, community surveys, participatory mapping, and media analysis explore lived experiences of conservation benefits and burdens. These engagements foreground community narratives, local-informed perspectives where applicable, and sectoral insights from fisherfolk, NGOs, policymakers, and youth leaders. The iterative feedback between modelling and lived experience refines the representation of equity within the model, ensuring that statistical relationships reflect social realities.

The research culminates in a decision-support framework that integrates model outputs with stakeholder priorities using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis. Designed for use by governments, NGOs, and community groups in Small Island Developing States and UK Overseas Territories, the tool aims to support transparent communication of trade-offs, strengthen trust in science, and improve alignment between top-down policy mandates and bottom-up community aspirations.

By connecting science, society, and practice, this project demonstrates how co-produced modelling and participatory methods can build shared understanding, improve the influence of biodiversity science, and support more equitable conservation pathways, advancing the World Biodiversity Forum’s vision of leading transformation together.