Integrating Shared Socio-economic Pathway scenarios with Nature Futures Framework to envision local forest futures in West Africa

Scenarios are widely used tools for guiding decision-making and implementing actions to prevent ecosystem decline, yet most models underrepresent local perceptions and values. We addressed this gap by co-developing forest futures with communities adjacent to Iko and Mbangassina forest patches in Nigeria and Cameroon, respectively. Both forest patches are located in agricultural landscapes characterized by cocoa production. We conducted three workshops in Nigeria and three in Cameroon, using a participatory scenario envisioning approach to co-produce future forest scenarios with community members. This was further complemented by 34 semi-structured interviews at both local and national levels. Thirty participants in Nigeria and forty in Cameroon envisioned the future of their forests based on three main scenarios aligned with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The outcomes were later compared with the Nature Futures Framework value perspectives of the IPBES to reflect how people value and envision nature. The results show that participants anticipated a slight reduction in forest cover and the associated Nature's Contributions to People (NCPs) under a business-as-usual scenario (SSP2). In contrast, the participants envisioned a more significant decline in forest cover under the fragmentation scenario (SSP3). However, in a sustainability scenario (SSP1), they envisioned a notable recovery of forest cover along with enhanced associated benefits. In the sustainability scenario, participants highlight that enhancing local institutions will strengthen community-based governance, social inclusion, and promote transparent decision-making. Furthermore, interviews highlighted that collaborative efforts in local forest management, along with effective government involvement, are crucial for ensuring forest ecological functions and positive impacts on community well-being.  The adopted participatory modelling approach offers insights on how to enrich scenarios and modelling with local knowledge. While linking insights from the workshops with those from the expert interviews is challenging, the study highlights potential pathways towards forest management that integrates insights across local-national scales. It provides a basis for further studies that can translate these narratives into spatial modelling.

Keywords: Nature Futures Framework, Scenario narrative, communities envisioning, local forests, West Africa, IPBES.