Positive and possible: Combining problem- and solution-focused scenarios of nature and people

Society’s capacity to chart credible pathways toward positive futures for both nature and people, under accelerating climate change and biodiversity loss, depends fundamentally on the identification of futures that are simultaneously biophysically plausible and socially desirable. Scenario development has therefore become a central tool for supporting decision-making across scales, from local adaptation planning to global environmental assessments and policy processes. To date, two major and largely complementary strands of research and practice have emerged to address these distinct but interdependent dimensions of future-oriented thinking.

 

Problem-focused approaches, most prominently climate change scenario planning, have prioritised the systematic exploration of plausible trajectories of socio-environmental change, associated risks, and biophysical constraints. These approaches have generated robust frameworks, such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways, which are now deeply embedded in climate research, impact assessments, and policy discourse. In parallel, solution-focused approaches have sought to articulate desirable futures by foregrounding normative goals, societal values, and alternative relationships between humans and nature. The IPBES Nature Futures Framework represents a major advance in this domain, offering a structured, pluralistic approach to envisioning futures grounded in intrinsic, instrumental, and relational values of nature.

 

Despite their shared relevance for sustainability-oriented governance, these two traditions have largely progressed in isolation, with limited conceptual or methodological integration. As a result, existing scenarios often either emphasise what is likely to happen under given constraints or what societies would like to achieve, but rarely both in a coherent and operational manner. This separation constrains the ability of scenarios to inform transformative action, as desirable futures may lack feasibility, while plausible futures may offer little guidance for normative choice.

 

In this presentation, we first synthesise recent conceptual and methodological advances in both problem- and solution-focused scenario traditions. We then initiate the development of an integrative framework for constructing holistic scenarios of global change that explicitly combine physical plausibility with societal desirability. Such an approach aims to support more coherent exploration of adaptation pathways, biodiversity futures, and sustainability transitions, thereby strengthening the relevance of scenario-based tools for policy, planning, and collective action.