Poster Programme I.

I.

Seasonal to decadal climate predictability and prediction
Oral Programme
 / Mon, 17 Sep, 11:00–13:00  / 16:00–17:40  / Room Lecture Hall H1
 / Tue, 18 Sep, 09:00–09:40  / Room Lecture Hall H1
Poster Programme
 / Attendance Mon, 17 Sep, 14:00–16:00  / Poster Area

Attendance Time: Monday, 17 September 2012, 14:00–16:00
Poster Area
Chairperson: Magdalena Balmaseda, Wolfgang Müller
P1
3ICESM-2
The Science of Climate Change
Mr Kusemererwa

Poster Area
P2
3ICESM-6
Estimating the prediction errors of dynamical climate model on basis of prophase key factors in north China
G. Feng

Poster Area
P3
3ICESM-7
Application of moving north Pacific index to rainy season rainfall forecast in Yangtze River basin
R. Zhi

Poster Area
P4
3ICESM-32
Analysis of wind waves and storms on the Black Sea
F.N. Gippius, V.S. Arkhipkin, and G.V. Surkova

Poster Area
P5 3ICESM-38
Climate Modeling in View of Non-equilibrium Thermodynamics (withdrawn)
H. Cao

Poster Area
P6
3ICESM-39
Assessment of the APCC coupled MME suite in predicting the distinctive climate impacts of two flavors of ENSO during boreal winter
h. Jeong, d. Lee, k. Ashok, j. Ahn, j. Lee, j. Luo, j. Schemm, h. Harry, k. Braganza, and y. Ham

Poster Area
P7
3ICESM-41
Multimodel near-term predictions of the North Atlantic
W. Hazeleger, B. Wouters, G.J. van Oldenborgh, D. Smith, J. Kroeger, and S. Corti

Poster Area
P8
3ICESM-44
Interannual Variations of Early Summer Monsoon Rainfall over South China under Different PDO Phases
J. Mao and G. Wu

Poster Area
P9
3ICESM-46
Atmospheric and Oceanic Data Assimilation Plus ENsembles Generation (AODA-PENG): A contribution to the MiKliP Program
A. Hense, J. Baehr, J.S. von Storch, W. Müller, J. Marotzke, A. Bott, V. Romanova, S. Brune, J. Kröger, M. Kaleem, L. Kornblueh, and A. Rhodin

Poster Area
P10
3ICESM-50
Early signs of extremely sunny and dry summers in Central Europe
C. Traeger-Chatterjee, R. W. Mueller, and J. Bendix

Poster Area
P11
3ICESM-56
Enhancement of prediction skills of multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction for the boreal winter seasons using a climate filter concept
D. Y. Lee, K. Ashok, and J.-B. Ahn

Poster Area
P12
3ICESM-57
Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model
D Swingedouw, J Mignot, and E Guilyardi

Poster Area
P13
3ICESM-68
Predictability and forecast skill on decadal timescales
G. J. Boer, V.V. Kharin, and Wm. Merryfield

Poster Area
P14
3ICESM-69
Probabilistic Prediction of Intraseasonal Oscillations of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in Extended Range Scale Using A Self Organizing Map Based Ensemble Forecasting Technique
N. Borah, A.K. Sahai, R. Chattopadhyay, S. Joseph, and B.N. Goswami

Poster Area
P15
3ICESM-75
Probabilistic Decadal Forecast for Central and Western Europe (PRODEF)
J. G. Pinto, K. Born, R. Haas, and M. Reyers

Poster Area
P16
3ICESM-76
Multidecadal climate variability in Arctic and North Atlantic in climate model INMCM4
E. Volodin

Poster Area
P17
3ICESM-77
Evaluation of forecast strategies for seasonal and decadal forecasts in presence of systematic model errors
L. Magnusson, M. Alonso-Balmaseda, and F. Molteni

Poster Area
P18
3ICESM-90
Prediction of decadal variability of Sea Surface temperature by a coupled global climate model FGOALS_gl developed in LASG/IAP
B. Wu and T. Zhou

Poster Area
P19
3ICESM-93
Two modes of the Silk Road pattern and their inter-annual variability simulated by IAP/LASG AGCM SAMIL2.0
F. Song and T. Zhou

Poster Area
P20
3ICESM-97
Assessment of South Asian Summer monsoon simulation in the CMIP5 coupled climate models
V. Prasanna

Poster Area
P21
3ICESM-102
Decadal prediction of Near Surface Temperature in East Asian by Multimode Ensembles of IPCC AR5 Near-term Simulations
W. Jia, ZH. Xie Fei, and CH. Yu Wen

Poster Area
P22
3ICESM-112
Temporal-spatial distribution of the predictability limit of monthly sea surface temperature in the global oceans
R. Q. Ding and J. P. Li

Poster Area
P23
3ICESM-119
Predictability in geophysical fluid dynamics from a phase space perspective.
B. Schalge, K. Fraedrich, and R. Blender

Poster Area
P24
3ICESM-129
Teleconnections of Seasonal Monsoon Variability over South and East Asia: CMIP5 Simulations and Projections
B. Preethi, R. H. Kripalani, and M. Mujumdar

Poster Area
P25
3ICESM-131
Does model parameter error cause a significant "spring predictability barrier" for El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model?
W. Duan and Y.S. Yu

Poster Area
P26
3ICESM-140
Analysis of CMIP5 historical runs for southwest US precipitation
S. Langford, D. Noone, and S. Stevenson

Poster Area
P27
3ICESM-146
Optimization of vegetation parameters through sequential assimilation of surface albedo observations
G. Geppert and A. Loew

Poster Area
P28 3ICESM-157
Downscaling ensembles of seasonal forecasts using an ensemble of regional models (withdrawn)
R. Arritt and the The MRED Team

Poster Area
P29
3ICESM-160
Relationship of predictability between the Pacific and Atlantic climate change
Y. Chikamoto, M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe, M. Ishii, T. Mochizuki, and A. Timmermann

Poster Area
P30
3ICESM-186
CMIP5 Decadal Prediction Experiments: What is the Skill of Prediction of Southern Ocean Sea Ice?
V. Zunz, H. Goosse, and F. Massonnet

Poster Area
P31
3ICESM-188
Decadal Prediction using MIROC Global Climate Model
T. Mochizuki, M. Kimoto, M. Ishii, Y. Chikamoto, M. Mori, H. Tatebe, and M. Watanabe

Poster Area
P32
3ICESM-191
The relationship between the Meridional Overturning Circulation and winter storm activity over the North Atlantic on decadal time scales
K.M. Nissen, U. Ulbrich, and G.C. Leckebusch

Poster Area
P33
3ICESM-196
North Atlantic heat transport and AMOC: Latitude dependence of the potential predictability
B. Tiedje, A. Köhl, and J. Baehr

Poster Area
P34 3ICESM-201
The Impacts of Grass Inclusion of Heterogeneous Land Surface Properties on the Asian Dust Occurrence and Climate Response (withdrawn)
S.H. Park, K.-O. Boo, Y.-H. Byun, J.H. Lee, and C.H. Cho

Poster Area
P35
3ICESM-203
MiKlip PastLand: Overview and first results
T. Stacke, S. Hagemann, T. Kaminski, A. Löw, and C. Reick

Poster Area
P36
3ICESM-206
Evaluation of decadal hindcasts: climate indices and clouds
T. Spangehl, M. Schröder, A. Hense, R. Glowienka-Hense, S. Stolzenberger, R. Hollmann, and F. Kaspar

Poster Area
P37
3ICESM-209
Using HadGEM3-AO initialised case studies to assess medium-range hindcast skill and investigate modelled El Nino biases
D Copsey, T Johns, A Shelly, and J Rodriguez

Poster Area
P38
3ICESM-216
Ensemble generation using breeding for seasonal and inter-annual forecasts
R. Piontek and J. Baehr

Poster Area
P39
3ICESM-219
Near-Term Climate Prediction with MRI-CGCM3
M. Ishii, S. Yukimoto, Y. Adachi, and A. Kitoh

Poster Area
P40
3ICESM-221
Primary Assessments of Surface Climate Simulations With BCC_CSM1.1
X. Shi, H. Ren, T. Wu, X. Xin, Y. Zhang, and W. Li

Poster Area
P41
3ICESM-224
Impact of initialization procedures on the predictive skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model
I. Polkova, A. Koehl, and D. Stammer

Poster Area
P42
3ICESM-227
Climate change and changing monsoon patterns
P. Kumar, A. Wiltshire, C. Mathison, S. Asharaf, B. Ahrens, S. Hagemann, and D. Jacob

Poster Area
P43
3ICESM-233
Relevance of meso-scales in Central America for decadal predictability in Europe
M. Thürkow, I. Kirchner, P. Lorenz, U. Ulbrich, A. Will, and S. Weiher

Poster Area
P44
3ICESM-236
Regional climate projections using the HadGEM3-RA
I.-H. Lee, S.-H. Park, H.-S. Kang, and C.-H. Cho

Poster Area
P45
3ICESM-421
A study of soil moisture climate feedbacks and its effects on climate projections (GLACE/CMIP5)
A. Meier, S. I. Seneviratne, M. Wilhelm, T. Stanelle, B. van den Hurk, C. Severijns, A. Berg, F. Cheruy, M. E. Higgins, V. Brovkin, M. Claussen, J.-D. Dufresne, K. Findell, D. M. Lawrence, S. Malyshev, B. Smith, and M. Rummukainen

Poster Area
P46
3ICESM-245
Understanding coupled model errors in the tropical Pacific using initialised hindcasts and a lead time analysis
B. Vannière, E. Guilyardi, T. Toniazzo, and S. Woolnough

Poster Area
P47
3ICESM-246
The MiKlip project - developing a system for decadal climate predictions
F.S.E. Vamborg, J. Marotzke, D. Stammer, U. Cubasch, Ch. Kottmeier, U. Ulbrich, and P. Becker

Poster Area
P48
3ICESM-249
Potential decadal predictability and its sensitivity to sea ice albedo parameterization in a global coupled model
T. Koenigk, C. König Beatty, M. Caian, R. Döscher, and K. Wyser

Poster Area
P49
3ICESM-255
Assessing the impact of sea ice initialization on the decadal predictability of CNRM-CM5.1 AOGCM
A. Germe, D. Salas y Mélia, M. Chevallier, and S. Sénési

Poster Area
P50
3ICESM-272
Synchronous motions galore across the instrumental record
P. Carl

Poster Area
P51
3ICESM-273
FLEXFORDEC - A flexible forecast system for decadal climate predictions
W. A. Mueller, H. Pohlmann, F. Vamborg, K. Kulkarni, K. Modali, D. Kleberg, and J. Marotzke

Poster Area
P52
3ICESM-276
Decadal forecasts with the IPSL-CM5A-LR model
S. Ray, J. Mignot, D. Swingedouw, S. Labetoulle, R. Seferian, and E. Guilyardi

Poster Area
P53
3ICESM-279
Regional downscaling of global multiyear predictions for Northern Europe
D.V. Sein, U. Mikolajewicz, D. Matei, M. Groeger, E. Maier-Reimer, and A. Elizalde

Poster Area
P54
3ICESM-280
North Atlantic Multidecadal Variability simulated in Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs)
J. Ba, N. Keenlyside, W. Park, M. Latif, and E. Hawkins

Poster Area
P55 3ICESM-288
Climate response in a RCP4.5 simulation with constant aerosols (withdrawn)
M. van Weele, T.P.C. van Noije, P. Le Sager, and W. Hazeleger

Poster Area
P56
3ICESM-292
Atlantic Cold Tongue in CMIP5 models: mean characteristics and interannual variability
A. Voldoire, M. Claudon, and J. Richon

Poster Area
P57
3ICESM-297
Impacts of Model Initialization and Volcanic Eruptions on Decadal SST and Land Climate Predictability in CMIP5 Experiments with the HadCM3, GFDL-CM2.1, and MIROC5 Global Earth System Models
V. Mehta, H. Wang, and K. Mendoza

Poster Area
P58
3ICESM-300
Decadal predictions for the Arctic with EC-EARTH
K. Wyser, M. Caian, T. Königk, F. Massonet, and T. Fichefet

Poster Area
P59
3ICESM-302
Land cover variability and its effect on potential predictability
M. Weiß, B. van den Hurk, and R. Haarsma

Poster Area
P60
3ICESM-307
Ocean-atmosphere interaction key aspect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
W.-L. Tseng, B.-J. Tsuang, N. Keenlyside, H.-H. Hsu, and C.-Y. Tu

Poster Area
P61
3ICESM-309
Tropical Storm Decadal Variability in the North Atlantic and Pacific
W.-L. Tseng, N. Keenlyside, and K. Hodges

Poster Area
P62
3ICESM-314
Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal to Interannual Timescales (APPOSITE)
S. Tietsche, J. J. Day, E. Hawkins, D. Hodson, S. Keeley, and R. Sutton

Poster Area
P63
3ICESM-317
Assessment of the tropical Pacific climate and ENSO in the BCC_CSM1.1
F. Wu, J. Li, M. Chu, and T. Wu

Poster Area
P64
3ICESM-319
Anomaly method improvements through phase initialisation in model space
M. Caian, K. Wyser, and T. Koenigk

Poster Area
P65
3ICESM-326
Assessment of decadal predictability and associated mechanisms of the CNRM-Cerfacs forecast system
C. Cassou, G. Nakoulma, F. Borchi, J. Boe, E. Sanchez-Gomez, and L. Terray

Poster Area
P66
3ICESM-328
Data assimilation experiments in coupled systems: Applicability to the land surface for the initialization of long-range simulations
J. Tödter and B. Ahrens

Poster Area
P67 3ICESM-333
The performance of the RCM WRF depending on model setup, choice of physics parameterization schemes, and implementation of different boundary conditions when simulating precipitation characteristics over West Africa (withdrawn)
M. Warscher, J. Bliefernicht, and H. Kunstmann

Poster Area
P68
3ICESM-336
Decadal Variability and Extremes of European Winter Storm Frequency and Intensity according to the Twentieth Century Reanalysis
T. Kruschke, B. Schyska, H. Rust, G.C. Leckebusch, and U. Ulbrich

Poster Area
P69
3ICESM-345
Statistical adjustment of decadal predictions in a changing climate
V. V. Kharin, G. J. Boer, W. J. Merryfield, J. F. Scinocca, and W.-S. Lee

Poster Area
P70 3ICESM-350
Seasonal climate prediction and predictability of atmospheric circulation (withdrawn)
J.-Y. Lee and B. Wang

Poster Area
P71
3ICESM-358
A Standardized Evaluation System for Decadal Climate Prediction
C. Kadow, U. Cubasch, U. Ulbrich, and T. Spangehl

Poster Area
P72 3ICESM-360
Advance of Seasonal Climate Prediction of the Asian-Australian Monsoon System using Atmosphere-Ocean-Land Coupled Models (withdrawn)
J.-Y. Lee, B. Wang, B. Xiang, J. S. Chowdary, I.-S. Kang, and A. Alessandri

Poster Area
P73
3ICESM-361
Asian Monsoon and Elevated Heat Pump Mechanism in coupled aerosol-climate model simulations
M. D'Errico, C. Cagnazzo, P. Fogli, W.K. M. Lau, and J. von Hardenberg

Poster Area
P74
3ICESM-364
Performance of both AR4 and AR5 IPCC models in Mexico
B. Martinez-Lopez, A. Quintanar, and R. Romero-Centeno

Poster Area
P75
3ICESM-368
Impact of Different Ocean Reanalyses on Decadal Climate Prediction
J. Kröger, W. A. Müller, and J.-S. von Storch

Poster Area
P76
3ICESM-372
Towards a Seasonal Prediction System using MPI-ESM
J. Baehr, M. Botzet, K. Froehlich, L. Kornblueh, H. Pohlmann, S. Tietsche, and W. Mueller

Poster Area
P77
3ICESM-374
Time Variations of the North Atlantic, South Oscillations and Edge Kinetic Energy in the Middle and Tropic Latitudes
V. Mansarliysky

Poster Area
P78
3ICESM-386
Decadal hindcasts with the ECMWF coupled system
S. Corti, M. Balmaseda, L. Magnusson, K. Mogensen, F. Molteni, T. N. Palmer, T. Stockdale, F. Vitart, and A. Weisheimer

Poster Area
P79
3ICESM-406
Predictability of the West African Monsoon
S. Materia, A. Bellucci, A. Borrelli, and S. Gualdi

Poster Area
P80
3ICESM-407
The influence of high resolution wind forcings on the modeled energy of the ocean
A. Rimac, C. Eden, and J.-S. von Storch