CO Meeting Organizer 3ICESM

Poster Programme I.

Seasonal to decadal climate predictability and prediction

Oral Programme

/ Mon, 17 Sep, 11:00–13:00 / 16:00–17:40 / Room Lecture Hall H1
/ Tue, 18 Sep, 09:00–09:40 / Room Lecture Hall H1

Poster Programme

/ Attendance Mon, 17 Sep, 14:00–16:00 / Poster Area

Attendance Time: Monday, 17 September 2012, 14:00–16:00 Poster Area Chairperson: Magdalena Balmaseda, Wolfgang Müller
P1	3ICESM-2 The Science of Climate Change Mr Kusemererwa

P2	3ICESM-6 Estimating the prediction errors of dynamical climate model on basis of prophase key factors in north China G. Feng

P3	3ICESM-7 Application of moving north Pacific index to rainy season rainfall forecast in Yangtze River basin R. Zhi

P4	3ICESM-32 Analysis of wind waves and storms on the Black Sea F.N. Gippius, V.S. Arkhipkin, and G.V. Surkova

P5	3ICESM-38 Climate Modeling in View of Non-equilibrium Thermodynamics (withdrawn) H. Cao

P6	3ICESM-39 Assessment of the APCC coupled MME suite in predicting the distinctive climate impacts of two flavors of ENSO during boreal winter h. Jeong, d. Lee, k. Ashok, j. Ahn, j. Lee, j. Luo, j. Schemm, h. Harry, k. Braganza, and y. Ham

P7	3ICESM-41 Multimodel near-term predictions of the North Atlantic W. Hazeleger, B. Wouters, G.J. van Oldenborgh, D. Smith, J. Kroeger, and S. Corti

P8	3ICESM-44 Interannual Variations of Early Summer Monsoon Rainfall over South China under Different PDO Phases J. Mao and G. Wu

P9	3ICESM-46 Atmospheric and Oceanic Data Assimilation Plus ENsembles Generation (AODA-PENG): A contribution to the MiKliP Program A. Hense, J. Baehr, J.S. von Storch, W. Müller, J. Marotzke, A. Bott, V. Romanova, S. Brune, J. Kröger, M. Kaleem, L. Kornblueh, and A. Rhodin

P10	3ICESM-50 Early signs of extremely sunny and dry summers in Central Europe C. Traeger-Chatterjee, R. W. Mueller, and J. Bendix

P11	3ICESM-56 Enhancement of prediction skills of multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction for the boreal winter seasons using a climate filter concept D. Y. Lee, K. Ashok, and J.-B. Ahn

P12	3ICESM-57 Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model D Swingedouw, J Mignot, and E Guilyardi

P13	3ICESM-68 Predictability and forecast skill on decadal timescales G. J. Boer, V.V. Kharin, and Wm. Merryfield

P14	3ICESM-69 Probabilistic Prediction of Intraseasonal Oscillations of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in Extended Range Scale Using A Self Organizing Map Based Ensemble Forecasting Technique N. Borah, A.K. Sahai, R. Chattopadhyay, S. Joseph, and B.N. Goswami

P15	3ICESM-75 Probabilistic Decadal Forecast for Central and Western Europe (PRODEF) J. G. Pinto, K. Born, R. Haas, and M. Reyers

P16	3ICESM-76 Multidecadal climate variability in Arctic and North Atlantic in climate model INMCM4 E. Volodin

P17	3ICESM-77 Evaluation of forecast strategies for seasonal and decadal forecasts in presence of systematic model errors L. Magnusson, M. Alonso-Balmaseda, and F. Molteni

P18	3ICESM-90 Prediction of decadal variability of Sea Surface temperature by a coupled global climate model FGOALS_gl developed in LASG/IAP B. Wu and T. Zhou

P19	3ICESM-93 Two modes of the Silk Road pattern and their inter-annual variability simulated by IAP/LASG AGCM SAMIL2.0 F. Song and T. Zhou

P20	3ICESM-97 Assessment of South Asian Summer monsoon simulation in the CMIP5 coupled climate models V. Prasanna

P21	3ICESM-102 Decadal prediction of Near Surface Temperature in East Asian by Multimode Ensembles of IPCC AR5 Near-term Simulations W. Jia, ZH. Xie Fei, and CH. Yu Wen

P22	3ICESM-112 Temporal-spatial distribution of the predictability limit of monthly sea surface temperature in the global oceans R. Q. Ding and J. P. Li

P23	3ICESM-119 Predictability in geophysical fluid dynamics from a phase space perspective. B. Schalge, K. Fraedrich, and R. Blender

P24	3ICESM-129 Teleconnections of Seasonal Monsoon Variability over South and East Asia: CMIP5 Simulations and Projections B. Preethi, R. H. Kripalani, and M. Mujumdar

P25	3ICESM-131 Does model parameter error cause a significant "spring predictability barrier" for El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model? W. Duan and Y.S. Yu

P26	3ICESM-140 Analysis of CMIP5 historical runs for southwest US precipitation S. Langford, D. Noone, and S. Stevenson

P27	3ICESM-146 Optimization of vegetation parameters through sequential assimilation of surface albedo observations G. Geppert and A. Loew

P28	3ICESM-157 Downscaling ensembles of seasonal forecasts using an ensemble of regional models (withdrawn) R. Arritt and the The MRED Team

P29	3ICESM-160 Relationship of predictability between the Pacific and Atlantic climate change Y. Chikamoto, M. Kimoto, M. Watanabe, M. Ishii, T. Mochizuki, and A. Timmermann

P30	3ICESM-186 CMIP5 Decadal Prediction Experiments: What is the Skill of Prediction of Southern Ocean Sea Ice? V. Zunz, H. Goosse, and F. Massonnet

P31	3ICESM-188 Decadal Prediction using MIROC Global Climate Model T. Mochizuki, M. Kimoto, M. Ishii, Y. Chikamoto, M. Mori, H. Tatebe, and M. Watanabe

P32	3ICESM-191 The relationship between the Meridional Overturning Circulation and winter storm activity over the North Atlantic on decadal time scales K.M. Nissen, U. Ulbrich, and G.C. Leckebusch

P33	3ICESM-196 North Atlantic heat transport and AMOC: Latitude dependence of the potential predictability B. Tiedje, A. Köhl, and J. Baehr

P34	3ICESM-201 The Impacts of Grass Inclusion of Heterogeneous Land Surface Properties on the Asian Dust Occurrence and Climate Response (withdrawn) S.H. Park, K.-O. Boo, Y.-H. Byun, J.H. Lee, and C.H. Cho

P35	3ICESM-203 MiKlip PastLand: Overview and first results T. Stacke, S. Hagemann, T. Kaminski, A. Löw, and C. Reick

P36	3ICESM-206 Evaluation of decadal hindcasts: climate indices and clouds T. Spangehl, M. Schröder, A. Hense, R. Glowienka-Hense, S. Stolzenberger, R. Hollmann, and F. Kaspar

P37	3ICESM-209 Using HadGEM3-AO initialised case studies to assess medium-range hindcast skill and investigate modelled El Nino biases D Copsey, T Johns, A Shelly, and J Rodriguez

P38	3ICESM-216 Ensemble generation using breeding for seasonal and inter-annual forecasts R. Piontek and J. Baehr

P39	3ICESM-219 Near-Term Climate Prediction with MRI-CGCM3 M. Ishii, S. Yukimoto, Y. Adachi, and A. Kitoh

P40	3ICESM-221 Primary Assessments of Surface Climate Simulations With BCC_CSM1.1 X. Shi, H. Ren, T. Wu, X. Xin, Y. Zhang, and W. Li

P41	3ICESM-224 Impact of initialization procedures on the predictive skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model I. Polkova, A. Koehl, and D. Stammer

P42	3ICESM-227 Climate change and changing monsoon patterns P. Kumar, A. Wiltshire, C. Mathison, S. Asharaf, B. Ahrens, S. Hagemann, and D. Jacob

P43	3ICESM-233 Relevance of meso-scales in Central America for decadal predictability in Europe M. Thürkow, I. Kirchner, P. Lorenz, U. Ulbrich, A. Will, and S. Weiher

P44	3ICESM-236 Regional climate projections using the HadGEM3-RA I.-H. Lee, S.-H. Park, H.-S. Kang, and C.-H. Cho

P45	3ICESM-421 A study of soil moisture climate feedbacks and its effects on climate projections (GLACE/CMIP5) A. Meier, S. I. Seneviratne, M. Wilhelm, T. Stanelle, B. van den Hurk, C. Severijns, A. Berg, F. Cheruy, M. E. Higgins, V. Brovkin, M. Claussen, J.-D. Dufresne, K. Findell, D. M. Lawrence, S. Malyshev, B. Smith, and M. Rummukainen

P46	3ICESM-245 Understanding coupled model errors in the tropical Pacific using initialised hindcasts and a lead time analysis B. Vannière, E. Guilyardi, T. Toniazzo, and S. Woolnough

P47	3ICESM-246 The MiKlip project - developing a system for decadal climate predictions F.S.E. Vamborg, J. Marotzke, D. Stammer, U. Cubasch, Ch. Kottmeier, U. Ulbrich, and P. Becker

P48	3ICESM-249 Potential decadal predictability and its sensitivity to sea ice albedo parameterization in a global coupled model T. Koenigk, C. König Beatty, M. Caian, R. Döscher, and K. Wyser

P49	3ICESM-255 Assessing the impact of sea ice initialization on the decadal predictability of CNRM-CM5.1 AOGCM A. Germe, D. Salas y Mélia, M. Chevallier, and S. Sénési

P50	3ICESM-272 Synchronous motions galore across the instrumental record P. Carl

P51	3ICESM-273 FLEXFORDEC - A flexible forecast system for decadal climate predictions W. A. Mueller, H. Pohlmann, F. Vamborg, K. Kulkarni, K. Modali, D. Kleberg, and J. Marotzke

P52	3ICESM-276 Decadal forecasts with the IPSL-CM5A-LR model S. Ray, J. Mignot, D. Swingedouw, S. Labetoulle, R. Seferian, and E. Guilyardi

P53	3ICESM-279 Regional downscaling of global multiyear predictions for Northern Europe D.V. Sein, U. Mikolajewicz, D. Matei, M. Groeger, E. Maier-Reimer, and A. Elizalde

P54	3ICESM-280 North Atlantic Multidecadal Variability simulated in Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) J. Ba, N. Keenlyside, W. Park, M. Latif, and E. Hawkins

P55	3ICESM-288 Climate response in a RCP4.5 simulation with constant aerosols (withdrawn) M. van Weele, T.P.C. van Noije, P. Le Sager, and W. Hazeleger

P56	3ICESM-292 Atlantic Cold Tongue in CMIP5 models: mean characteristics and interannual variability A. Voldoire, M. Claudon, and J. Richon

P57	3ICESM-297 Impacts of Model Initialization and Volcanic Eruptions on Decadal SST and Land Climate Predictability in CMIP5 Experiments with the HadCM3, GFDL-CM2.1, and MIROC5 Global Earth System Models V. Mehta, H. Wang, and K. Mendoza

P58	3ICESM-300 Decadal predictions for the Arctic with EC-EARTH K. Wyser, M. Caian, T. Königk, F. Massonet, and T. Fichefet

P59	3ICESM-302 Land cover variability and its effect on potential predictability M. Weiß, B. van den Hurk, and R. Haarsma

P60	3ICESM-307 Ocean-atmosphere interaction key aspect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation W.-L. Tseng, B.-J. Tsuang, N. Keenlyside, H.-H. Hsu, and C.-Y. Tu

P61	3ICESM-309 Tropical Storm Decadal Variability in the North Atlantic and Pacific W.-L. Tseng, N. Keenlyside, and K. Hodges

P62	3ICESM-314 Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal to Interannual Timescales (APPOSITE) S. Tietsche, J. J. Day, E. Hawkins, D. Hodson, S. Keeley, and R. Sutton

P63	3ICESM-317 Assessment of the tropical Pacific climate and ENSO in the BCC_CSM1.1 F. Wu, J. Li, M. Chu, and T. Wu

P64	3ICESM-319 Anomaly method improvements through phase initialisation in model space M. Caian, K. Wyser, and T. Koenigk

P65	3ICESM-326 Assessment of decadal predictability and associated mechanisms of the CNRM-Cerfacs forecast system C. Cassou, G. Nakoulma, F. Borchi, J. Boe, E. Sanchez-Gomez, and L. Terray

P66	3ICESM-328 Data assimilation experiments in coupled systems: Applicability to the land surface for the initialization of long-range simulations J. Tödter and B. Ahrens

P67	3ICESM-333 The performance of the RCM WRF depending on model setup, choice of physics parameterization schemes, and implementation of different boundary conditions when simulating precipitation characteristics over West Africa (withdrawn) M. Warscher, J. Bliefernicht, and H. Kunstmann

P68	3ICESM-336 Decadal Variability and Extremes of European Winter Storm Frequency and Intensity according to the Twentieth Century Reanalysis T. Kruschke, B. Schyska, H. Rust, G.C. Leckebusch, and U. Ulbrich

P69	3ICESM-345 Statistical adjustment of decadal predictions in a changing climate V. V. Kharin, G. J. Boer, W. J. Merryfield, J. F. Scinocca, and W.-S. Lee

P70	3ICESM-350 Seasonal climate prediction and predictability of atmospheric circulation (withdrawn) J.-Y. Lee and B. Wang

P71	3ICESM-358 A Standardized Evaluation System for Decadal Climate Prediction C. Kadow, U. Cubasch, U. Ulbrich, and T. Spangehl

P72	3ICESM-360 Advance of Seasonal Climate Prediction of the Asian-Australian Monsoon System using Atmosphere-Ocean-Land Coupled Models (withdrawn) J.-Y. Lee, B. Wang, B. Xiang, J. S. Chowdary, I.-S. Kang, and A. Alessandri

P73	3ICESM-361 Asian Monsoon and Elevated Heat Pump Mechanism in coupled aerosol-climate model simulations M. D'Errico, C. Cagnazzo, P. Fogli, W.K. M. Lau, and J. von Hardenberg

P74	3ICESM-364 Performance of both AR4 and AR5 IPCC models in Mexico B. Martinez-Lopez, A. Quintanar, and R. Romero-Centeno

P75	3ICESM-368 Impact of Different Ocean Reanalyses on Decadal Climate Prediction J. Kröger, W. A. Müller, and J.-S. von Storch

P76	3ICESM-372 Towards a Seasonal Prediction System using MPI-ESM J. Baehr, M. Botzet, K. Froehlich, L. Kornblueh, H. Pohlmann, S. Tietsche, and W. Mueller

P77	3ICESM-374 Time Variations of the North Atlantic, South Oscillations and Edge Kinetic Energy in the Middle and Tropic Latitudes V. Mansarliysky

P78	3ICESM-386 Decadal hindcasts with the ECMWF coupled system S. Corti, M. Balmaseda, L. Magnusson, K. Mogensen, F. Molteni, T. N. Palmer, T. Stockdale, F. Vitart, and A. Weisheimer

P79	3ICESM-406 Predictability of the West African Monsoon S. Materia, A. Bellucci, A. Borrelli, and S. Gualdi

P80	3ICESM-407 The influence of high resolution wind forcings on the modeled energy of the ocean A. Rimac, C. Eden, and J.-S. von Storch