The WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)–World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project has the goal of improving forecast skill of the 2 week to 2 month lead time range and now provides research communities with unprecedented access to a comprehensive database of forecasts and hindcasts from a large number of forecasting centres from across the globe.

This session invites contributions that span all aspects of S2S meteorological, hydrological and oceanographic prediction, including impacts studies that may or may not make use of the S2S databases.

Specifically we welcome contributions that focus on phenomena such as

- The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)
- Tropical/extra-Tropical waves
- Stratospheric variability and stratosphere -troposphere coupling
- Predictability and skill of atmospheric or surface variables
- Transition of weather regimes
- Case studies of extreme weather events on the S2S scale

Contributions regarding impacts studies at the S2S time-range are also highly welcome, including the areas of water management (e.g floods, drought), health (vector-borne diseases, heat waves, air quality) and security (fires), agriculture and energy. These can include modelling studies of the impacts through to presentations of how S2S-derived information can be integrated into decision support systems at the local, regional and country level.

*********** UPDATE ********************

Solicited talks:

Dr Andrea Manrique-Suñén from Barcelona Supercomputer Centre (BSC) will talk about the S2S4E project which aims to bring sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions to the renewable energy sector. To illustrate the potential benefits of S2S predictions the S2S4E projects have analysed several case studies, i.e. periods pointed out by the energy companies as having an unusual climate behavior that affected the energy market. Two of these case studies show how the climate predictions of each event would have helped stakeholders to take precautionary actions several weeks ahead.

Dr Andrew Robertson from Columbia University will give a review of the status of the S2S project, and show some examples of the sub-seasonal forecast products which have been developed at IRI

Co-organized as CL2.06.2
Convener: Francesca Di Giuseppe | Co-conveners: Daniela Domeisen, A.G. Muñoz, Adrian Tompkins, Frederic Vitart
| Thu, 11 Apr, 08:30–12:30, 14:00–15:45
Room 0.11
| Attendance Thu, 11 Apr, 16:15–18:00
Hall X5

Thursday, 11 April 2019 | Room 0.11

Chairperson: Daniela Domeisen
08:45–09:00 |
Angela Benedetti, Frederic Vitart, and Francesca Di Giuseppe
09:45–10:00 |
Caroline Ummenhofer, Adwait Sahasrabhojanee, Laifang Li, and Raymond Schmitt
10:00–10:15 |
Nele-Charlotte Neddermann, Wolfgang A. Müller, André Düsterhus, Holger Pohlmann, and Johanna Baehr
Coffee break
Chairperson: Adrian Tompkins
11:30–11:45 |
Subseasonal Forecast Skill of the PNA and NAO in boreal winter by the Sub-seasonal Experiment (SubX) Models
Hai Lin and Emmanuel Poan
11:45–12:00 |
Lorenzo Zampieri, Helge F. Goessling, and Thomas Jung
12:00–12:15 |
Damien Specq, Lauriane Batté, and Michel Déqué
12:15–12:30 |
Ole Wulff and Daniela Domeisen
Lunch break
Chairperson: Francesca Di Giuseppe
14:15–14:30 |
| solicited
Andrea Manrique-Suñén, Llorenç Lledó, Nube González-Reviriego, Verónica Torralba, Hannah Bloomfield, Paula González, Andrew Charlton-Pérez, David Brayshaw, Nicola Cortesi, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Lluis Palma, Ilaria Vigo, Martí Badal, Isadora Christel, Albert Soret, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
14:30–14:45 |
Kavina Dayal, Jaclyn Brown, Tom Beischer, Paul Gregory, and Peter Thorburn
14:45–15:00 |
Fredrik Wetterhall
15:00–15:15 |
Karim Abbaspour, Seyed Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi,, and Anthony Lehmann
15:15–15:30 |
Stephan Hemri, Jonas Bhend, Rodrigo Manzanas, Jose Manuel Gutiérrez, Nicolau Manubens, Alasdair Hunter, Marta Bruno Soares, Joaquín Bedia, Daniel San Martín, Stefan Siegert, David Stephenson, Eduardo Penabad, Anca Brookshaw, Mark Liniger, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
15:30–15:45 |
Mikhail Dobrynin, Kristina Fröhlich, Wolfgang A. Müller, André Düsterhus, Tim Stockdale, Adam Scaife, Panos Athanasiadis, Paolo Ruggieri, and Johanna Baehr