The WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)–World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project has the goal of improving forecast skill of the 2 week to 2 month lead time range and now provides research communities with unprecedented access to a comprehensive database of forecasts and hindcasts from a large number of forecasting centres from across the globe.

This session invites contributions that span all aspects of S2S meteorological, hydrological and oceanographic prediction, including impacts studies that may or may not make use of the S2S databases.

Specifically we welcome contributions that focus on phenomena such as

- The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)
- Tropical/extra-Tropical waves
- Stratospheric variability and stratosphere -troposphere coupling
- Predictability and skill of atmospheric or surface variables
- Transition of weather regimes
- Case studies of extreme weather events on the S2S scale

Contributions regarding impacts studies at the S2S time-range are also highly welcome, including the areas of water management (e.g floods, drought), health (vector-borne diseases, heat waves, air quality) and security (fires), agriculture and energy. These can include modelling studies of the impacts through to presentations of how S2S-derived information can be integrated into decision support systems at the local, regional and country level.

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Solicited talks:

Dr Andrea Manrique-Suñén from Barcelona Supercomputer Centre (BSC) will talk about the S2S4E project which aims to bring sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions to the renewable energy sector. To illustrate the potential benefits of S2S predictions the S2S4E projects have analysed several case studies, i.e. periods pointed out by the energy companies as having an unusual climate behavior that affected the energy market. Two of these case studies show how the climate predictions of each event would have helped stakeholders to take precautionary actions several weeks ahead.

Dr Andrew Robertson from Columbia University will give a review of the status of the S2S project, and show some examples of the sub-seasonal forecast products which have been developed at IRI

Co-organized as CL2.06.2
Convener: Francesca Di Giuseppe | Co-conveners: Daniela Domeisen, A.G. Muñoz, Adrian Tompkins, Frederic Vitart
| Thu, 11 Apr, 08:30–12:30, 14:00–15:45
Room 0.11
| Attendance Thu, 11 Apr, 16:15–18:00
Hall X5

Attendance time: Thursday, 11 April 2019, 16:15–18:00 | Hall X5

Chairperson: Andrew Robertson
X5.237 |
Shipra Jain, Adam Arthur Scaife, and Ashis Mitra
X5.238 |
Zhuozhuo Lv, Shengping He, Fei Li, and Huijun Wang
X5.240 |
Predictability and Prediction Skill of the boreal summer intra-seasonal oscillation in BCC_CSM model
(withdrawn after no-show)
Yongjie Fang
X5.242 |
Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Tzu-Ting Lo, Meng-Shih Chen, Chia-I She, and Wei Bai
X5.243 |
The impact of ENSO on Submonthly Wave Patterns in the East Asian summer monsoon region
Ken-Chung Ko and Jyun-Hong Liu
X5.247 |
Wee Leng Tan, Thea Turkington, Ryan Kang, and Raizan Rahmat
X5.249 |
| presentation
Muhammad Ashfaqur Rahman, Muhammad Adnan Abid, Fred Kucharski, Erika Coppola, and Mansour Almazroui
X5.250 |
Cecilia Karlsson, Andrea Vajda, and Otto Hyvärinen
X5.251 |
Weather Regime Diagnostics of Sub-seasonal Forecasts over North America
Andrew Robertson, Nicolas Vigaud, Jing Yuan, and Michael Tippett
X5.252 |
Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela Domeisen, and Amy Butler
X5.253 |
Björn Mayer, André Düsterhus, Mikhail Dobrynin, and Johanna Baehr
X5.254 |
| Highlight
Adrian Tompkins, Felipe Colón-González, Francesca Di Giuseppe, and Didacus Namanya
X5.255 |
Felipe Andrade, Elisabeth Thompson, Matthew Young, Caroline Dunning, Linda Hirons, Emily Black, and Steven Woolnough
X5.256 |
Iuliia Polkova, Mikhail Dobrynin, Erik Kolstad, Daniela Domeisen, Hilla Afargan, and Johanna Baehr
X5.257 |
Francesca Di Giuseppe
X5.259 |
Xiaolu Shao, Jie Song, and Shuanglin Li
X5.260 |
Irene Cionni, Matteo De Felice, Alessandro Dell'Aquila, Jaume Ramon, and Llorenç Lledó
X5.261 |
Chenghai Wang, Kai Yang, Kechen Li, Jiamin Li, and Feimin Zhang
X5.262 |
Masuo Nakano, Frederic Vitart, and Kazuyoshi Kikuchi
X5.264 |
Addressing the Challenge of S2S Climate Prediction at the US NOAA Climate Prediction Center: Multi-Model Ensembles and Forecasts of Opportunity
Dan C. Collins, Sarah Strazzo, Emerson LaJoie, and Jon Gottschalck