The Arctic sea ice and high latitude atmosphere and oceans have experienced significant changes over the modern observational era. The polar climate is crucial for the Earth’s energy and water budget, and its variability and change have direct socio-economic and ecological impacts. Thus, understanding high-latitude variability and improving predictions of high latitude climate is highly important for society. Predictability studies indicate that decadal to multi-decadal variations in the oceans and sub-seasonal to multi-year sea ice variations are the largest sources of predictability in high latitudes. However, dynamical model predictions are not yet in the position to provide us with accurate predictions of the polar climate. Main reasons for this are the lack of observations in high latitudes, insufficient initialization methods and shortcomings of climate models in representing some of the important climate processes in high latitudes.
This session aims for a better understanding and better representation of the mechanisms that control high latitude climate variability and predictability in both hemispheres at sub-seasonal to multi-decadal time-scales in past, recent and future climates. Further, the session aims to discuss ongoing efforts to improve climate predictions at high latitudes at various time scales (as e.g. usage of additional observations for initialization, improved initialization methods, impact of higher resolution, improved parameterizations) and potential teleconnections of high latitude climate with lower latitude climate. We also aim to link polar climate variability and predictions to potential ecologocal and socio-economic impacts and encourage submissions on this topic.
This session offers the possibility to present results from the ongoing projects and research efforts on the topic of high-latitude climate variability and prediction, including, but not limited to Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), and the ARCPATH-project (Arctic Climate Predictions - Pathways to Resilient, Sustainable Societies).

Co-organized as AS4.12/CR1.14/OS1.29
Convener: Torben Koenigk | Co-conveners: Yongqi Gao, Helge Goessling, Neven-Stjepan Fuckar
| Mon, 08 Apr, 08:30–12:30
Room 0.49
| Attendance Mon, 08 Apr, 14:00–15:45
Hall X5

Attendance time: Monday, 8 April 2019, 14:00–15:45 | Hall X5

Chairperson: Torben Koenigk
X5.51 |
Louise Sime, Maria Vittoria Guarino, David Schroeder, Jeff Ridley, and Alistair Sellar
X5.52 |
Holly Ayres and James Screen
X5.53 |
James Warner, James Screen, Adam Scaife, Nick Dunstone, and Doug Smith
X5.56 |
Torben Koenigk and Ramon Fuentes Franco
X5.57 |
Sam Vanden Broucke, Samuel Helsen, Sotiris Sotiriadis, Niels Souverijns, Alexandra Gossart, and Nicole Van Lipzig
X5.58 |
Daniela Flocco, Ed Hawkins, and Daniel Feltham
X5.59 |
Sonja Murto, Rodrigo Caballero, and Gunilla Svensson
X5.61 |
Annalisa Cherchi, Paolo Ruggieri, and Antonio Navarra
X5.62 |
Bo Christiansen and Shuting Yang
X5.63 |
Anne Seidenglanz, Paolo Ruggieri, Panos Athanasiadis, and Silvio Gualdi
X5.64 |
Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Torben Koenigk, and Klaus Zimmermann
X5.65 |
Kirstin Werner, Helge Goessling, Thomas Jung, Winfried Hoke, Sara Pasqualetto, and Katharina Kirchhoff
X5.66 |
Simon Reifenberg, Helge Goessling, and Axel Schweiger
X5.67 |
Shengping He, Xinping Xu, Yongqi Gao, Tore Furevik, Huijun Wang, Fei Li, and Fumiaki Ogawa