EGU2020-20053
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20053
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Short-term retrospective forecasting of earthquakes based on temporal variations of the b-value of the magnitude-frequency distribution

Paolo Gasperini1, Emanuele Biondini1, Antonio Petruccelli2, Barbara Lolli3, and Gianfranco Vannucci3
Paolo Gasperini et al.
  • 1Università di Bologna, Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia, Bologna, Italy (paolo.gasperini@unibo.it)
  • 2Swiss Seismological Service (SED) ETH Zürich
  • 3Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna

In some recent works it has been hypothesized that the slope (b-value) of the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes may be related to the differential stress inside the crust.  In particular, it has been observed that low b-values are associated with high stress values and therefore with high probability of occurrence of strong seismic shocks. In this paper we formulate a predictive hypothesis based on temporal variations of the b-value. We tested and optimized such hypothesis retrospectively based on the homogenized Italian instrumental seismic catalog (HORUS) from 1995 to 2018. A comparison is also made with a similar predictive hypothesis based on the occurrence of strong foreshocks.

 

How to cite: Gasperini, P., Biondini, E., Petruccelli, A., Lolli, B., and Vannucci, G.: Short-term retrospective forecasting of earthquakes based on temporal variations of the b-value of the magnitude-frequency distribution, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-20053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20053, 2020

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