EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

The overlap of aftershock coda waves and forecasting the first hour aftershocks

Eugenio Lippiello1, Giuseppe Petrillo1, Cataldo Godano1, Lucilla de Arcangelis1, Anna Tramelli2, Eleftheria Papadimitrou3, and Vassilis Karakostas3
Eugenio Lippiello et al.
  • 1University of Campania, Physics, Italy (
  • 2Istituto Nazionale Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy
  • 3Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniky, Greece

We show that short term post-seismic incompleteness can be interpreted in terms of the overlap of aftershock coda waves. We use this information to develop a novel procedure which gives accurate occurrence probabilities of post-seismic strong ground shaking within 30 minutes after the mainshock. This novel approach uses, as only information, the ground velocity recorded at a single station without requiring that signals are transferred and elaborated by operational units. We will also discuss how this information can be implemented in the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model in order to reproduce statistical features in time and magnitude of recorded aftershocks.

Main references

de Arcangelis L., Godano C. & Lippiello E. (2018) The Overlap of Aftershock Coda Waves and Short-Term Postseismic Forecasting. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 123: 5661-5674,doi:10.1029/2018JB015518

Lippiello E., Petrillo G. , Godano G. , Tramelli A., Papadimitriou E. &, Karakostas V. (2019) Forecasting of the first hour aftershocks by means of the perceived magnitude. Nature Communications , 10, 2953, doi:10.1038/s41467-019-10763-3

How to cite: Lippiello, E., Petrillo, G., Godano, C., de Arcangelis, L., Tramelli, A., Papadimitrou, E., and Karakostas, V.: The overlap of aftershock coda waves and forecasting the first hour aftershocks, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-2444,, 2020

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