The overlap of aftershock coda waves and forecasting the first hour aftershocks
- 1University of Campania, Physics, Italy (eugenio.lippiello@unicampania.it)
- 2Istituto Nazionale Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy
- 3Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniky, Greece
We show that short term post-seismic incompleteness can be interpreted in terms of the overlap of aftershock coda waves. We use this information to develop a novel procedure which gives accurate occurrence probabilities of post-seismic strong ground shaking within 30 minutes after the mainshock. This novel approach uses, as only information, the ground velocity recorded at a single station without requiring that signals are transferred and elaborated by operational units. We will also discuss how this information can be implemented in the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model in order to reproduce statistical features in time and magnitude of recorded aftershocks.
Main references
de Arcangelis L., Godano C. & Lippiello E. (2018) The Overlap of Aftershock Coda Waves and Short-Term Postseismic Forecasting. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 123: 5661-5674,doi:10.1029/2018JB015518
Lippiello E., Petrillo G. , Godano G. , Tramelli A., Papadimitriou E. &, Karakostas V. (2019) Forecasting of the first hour aftershocks by means of the perceived magnitude. Nature Communications , 10, 2953, doi:10.1038/s41467-019-10763-3
How to cite: Lippiello, E., Petrillo, G., Godano, C., de Arcangelis, L., Tramelli, A., Papadimitrou, E., and Karakostas, V.: The overlap of aftershock coda waves and forecasting the first hour aftershocks, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-2444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2444, 2020
