HS5.1.2

Sociohydrological models are increasingly used in flood risk analysis to reveal and understand the temporal dynamics in coupled human-flood systems. While most sociohydrological flood risk models are stylized and describe hypothetical human-flood systems, very few recent case studies employ empirical data to investigate real world systems. The mathematical representation of flooding processes in these models is often simplistic and does not reflect the current state of knowledge. This is due to the intricacy of human-flood interactions and the lack of sufficient and suitable historical data.

We augment an existing, parsimonious sociohydrological flood risk model with a process-oriented flood loss model to integrate better understanding of flood damage processes into a sociohydrological modeling framework. Using Bayesian inference, we simulate the co-evolution of the flood risk system for companies located at the river Elbe in Dresden, Germany, over the course of 120 years. We compare model versions with differently complex process description on the basis of their loss prediction accuracy and uncertainty. This allows for exploring the added value of (i) resolving the inundation and damage process with more detail and (ii) accounting for heterogeneity across economic sectors. Apart from historical sociohydrological data, the proposed, augmented model versions are informed by object-level loss data, inundation maps, and spatial data, enhancing the pool of information available to the model. A leave-one-out cross-validation experiment shows that the augmented model versions increase the precision and reduce the uncertainty of company flood loss predictions in Dresden. In addition, the augmented models provide reliable loss predictions even in the absence of extensive historical flood loss data.

The demonstrated model augmentation concept is not limited to the flood damage process but could be transferred to other processes within the human-flood system. For instance, by incorporating a dedicated model from protection motivation theory that describes how flood awareness and preparedness change after the occurrence of a damaging flood event.

How to cite: Schoppa, L., Barendrecht, M., Sieg, T., Sairam, N., and Kreibich, H.: Augmenting a Sociohydrological Flood Risk Model for Companies with Process-oriented Loss Estimation, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10064, 2021.

Effective and sustainable decision making in water resources management often requires modelling techniques that are able to account for the inherent complexity of coupled human-water systems. One approach that is used to model coupled human-water systems is to couple physically based models and system dynamics models. However, in many cases, this type of model coupling is labour-intensive and time-consuming, which can hinder its routine use in modeling and decision making.

Tinamït, a Python package, is an application programming interface (API) that provides definitions of functions and objects that simplify, in this case, coupled model building. Tinamït supports automatic SD model wrapping and coupling to specialized physically-based models, which makes it particularly useful for coupled human-water systems modelling. In this research, a connection between SWAT+ (a FORTRAN-based hydrological model) and the Tinamït API is established through model wrapping. This wrapping approach takes advantage of both the agility of sockets and the wide applicability of JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) to transmit data between FORTRAN and Python routines at runtime. Any model that runs in SWAT+ can now be automatically coupled to SD models through the Tinamït API, without the need for extensive programming, therefore facilitating wider application of coupled modelling techniques for integrated policy development and decision making in the field of coupled human-water systems.

How to cite: Harms, J. Z., Malard, J. J., and Adamowski, J. F.: Dynamic Coupling of SWAT+ with System Dynamics Models using Tinamït and a Socket Based Protocol, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6731, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6731, 2021.

An innovative socio-hydrological modeling framework for the development of environmental policies tailored to farmers' attitudes and economic interests is proposed with the inclusion of optimal environmental criteria. It focuses on modeling the complex relation of farmers, the environment, and the agricultural practices recommended by policy developers. An on-site survey of farmers is used to develop a behavior model based on a modified Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). An agent-based model (ABM) is coupled with an agro-hydrological model for vegetative filter strips (VFS) to create dynamics of the social and environmental system.

The farmers from the Larqui river basin, Chile took part in the survey to understand their standpoint on the use of VFS to reduce soil loss in their agricultural fields and protect water bodies. The farmers were categorized into perceptive, proactive, bounded rational and interactive agents based on their answers to the survey. This categorization along with decision rules, and utility functions of agricultural activities including the VFS implementation and management are used to develop an ABM. Partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) is used to analyze the modified TPB of farmers. Behavioral morality, behavioral willingness, knowledge of farmers showed a significant effect on modeling the intention and behavior of farmers to have VFS in their land. Subjective norm was the only construct that was not significant. The results of the ABM validate with the survey of the farmers. It shows that the decision on the width of VFS is not solely dependent on the utility generated and the reduction in soil losses but also on the behavior of farmers. This behavioral socio-hydrological modeling framework is capable of supporting policy-makers in developing tailored environmental policies that might improve the acceptance of sustainable agricultural practices by farmers.

How to cite: Kasargodu Anebagilu, P., Dietrich, J., Prado Stuardo, L., Morales, B., Winter, E., and Arumi, J. L.: Application of the theory of planned behavior with agent-based modeling for sustainable management of vegetative filter strips, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5686, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5686, 2021.

Systems dynamics modelling is often used as a participatory modelling tool to model the long-term dynamics of socio-ecological systems, as well as to help in developing integrated policy decisions that take into account the unexpected and complex system behaviours that are often caused by the dynamic feedbacks between ecology and society. Actual use of these models in decision-making is, however, hindered by the frequent lack of high-quality temporal data on many key socioeconomic (and environmental) variables, which makes the application of traditional system dynamics model evaluation techniques difficult. This situation is particularly pronounced in the context of many Indigenous communities around the world, regions where improved access to decision support tools such as system dynamics modelling could be of particular use for supporting communities in their quest to make (and have implemented) their own resource management decisions. In the absence of rigorous quantification methods, however, these models are difficult to build and trust.

In this research, we present a novel methodology for calibrating hard-to-quantify relationships between socioeconomic variables of systems dynamics models. Based on hierarchical Bayesian inference, the methodology allows for the use of spatially explicit (but temporally poor) datasets to infer the quantitative, numerical relationships between socioeconomic variables, even when data in the precise region of interest is very scarce. We present, as a case study, a system dynamics model of small-scale agricultural systems and food security in two different regions of Guatemala (Tz'olöj Ya' and K'iche'), and analyse the impacts of different proposed policies in the face of socioeconomic shocks and water stress due to projected climate change. The hierarchical Bayesian inference calibration method allowed for the inference of key socioeconomic parameter values in a spatially explicit context to compensate for data scarcity, while spatial validation indicated which regions of the country the model was appropriate for.

Such a methodology, once incorporated into user-friendly system dynamics software, has the potential to facilitate participatory sociohydrological modelling even in quite data-scarce regions where modellers, up until now, have had to rely on educated guesses for the majority of the model's calibration.

How to cite: Malard, J., Adamowski, J., Tuy, H., and Melgar-Quiñonez, H.: Hierarchical Bayesian inference and spatial validation of socio-ecological system dynamics models: participatory modelling for Indigenous smallholder agriculture and food security in Guatemala, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6766, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6766, 2021.

Long term dynamics in human-flood systems differ due to differences in hydrological and societal characteristics. By contrasting and comparing different human-flood systems we increase our understanding of which characteristics lead to which dynamics, which might help to counteract unfavorable developments. We propose a framework for comparing human-flood systems analogous to the Budyko one for traditional catchment hydrology. While in the Budyko framework catchments are classified as either water limited or energy limited, in the framework proposed here the human-flood systems are classified as either hydrology limited or exposure limited. In analogy to the precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and actual evapotranspiration components of the Budyko space we formulate the components of the “flood risk space” as hydrological potential loss, manmade potential loss and actual flood loss. The framework is applied to four stylised theoretical systems, investigating how their position in the flood risk space may change under the influence of hydrological, technical and demographic changes. Results show that hydrological changes have the largest effect on a system’s position in the flood risk space: with an increasing skewness and CV systems become more hydrology limited. The framework’s value for comparing empirical case studies is demonstrated through an application to two case studies in Germany: Dresden on the Elbe and Cologne on the Rhine. The framework allows us to identify the differences in dynamics between the two case studies, as they are located in different areas of the flood risk space. The difference in dynamics between the Dresden and Cologne systems seems to be mostly caused by the hydrological parameters (i.e. the skewness) rather than the social parameters. The flood frequency distribution is more skewed in the case of the Elbe in Dresden than in the case of the Rhine in Cologne. Therefore, Dresden experiences more shocks to the system (i.e. unexpectedly large floods) than Cologne.

How to cite: Barendrecht, M. H., Viglione, A., Kreibich, H., and Blöschl, G.: A Budyko-like framework for exploring the controls of long-term flood risk in coupled human-flood systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6266, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6266, 2021.

Interactions between society and water are complex, socio-hydrological systems are influenced by policies, which rarely are a simple linear response with the aim of providing the most efficient solution. In drought contexts, a new layer of complexity is added, considering the different uncertainties involved, related to the rainfall season, or the duration of multi-year drought events. We utilized the Multiple Streams Approach (MSA) theory to answer the following question: how do multi-year droughts function as focusing events? Focusing events may trigger greater attention to problems and solutions because they increase the likelihood that more organized interests, including some that are influential and powerful, could advocate policy change. MSA seeks to explain how policy changes. It assumes the policy change happens when three separate streams interact: (1) the problem stream, involving the emergence or recognition of a problem by society; (2) the policy stream, containing policy ideas and alternatives generated by specialists, researchers, politicians, and social actors; and (3) the politics stream, referring to the political, administrative, and legislative context favorable or unfavorable to developing certain actions to overcome the problem. The justification to apply the MSA lenses in this is study is to understand the influences of multi-year drought events as a focusing event that triggered the process of policy change considering the subnational context of Ceará state in Brazil. In this study, the following methodological procedures were used: (a) historical overview of drought occurrence and the policy responses in Ceará; (b) data processing of hydrologic records (rainfall). We found three main different policy approaches to drought impacts: reactive, proactive, and drought preparedness policies. We found in some cases that multi-year droughts served as focusing events that opened windows of opportunities, triggering policy response changes, such as, collaboration, new problem framing, and increased political attention. Our findings have implications for the socio-hydrology field, as there is still significant scope for increasing the understanding of the influences of public policies in the context of coupled-humans systems, especially in the context of drought. 

How to cite: Cavalcante, L., Ribeiro Neto, G., Dewulf, A., van Oel, P., and Souza Filho, F.: A multiple streams analysis of drought policies in Ceará state, Brazil, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13225, 2021.

Numerous scholars have unravelled the complexities and underlying uncertainties of coupled human and water systems in various fields and disciplines. These complexities, however, are not always reflected in the way in which the dynamics of human-water systems are modelled. One reason is the lack of social data times series, that may be provided by longitudinal surveys. Here, we show the value of collecting longitudinal survey data to enrich sociohydrological modelling of flood risk. To illustrate, we compare and contrast two different approaches (repeated cross-sectional and panel) for collecting longitudinal data, and explore changes in flood risk awareness and preparedness in a municipality hit by a flash flood in 2018. We found that risk awareness has not changed significantly in the timeframe under study (one year). Perceived preparedness also did not change, but we observed differences related to damage severity. More precisely, preparedness increased only among those respondents who suffered low damages during the flood event. We also found gender differences across both approaches for most of the variables explored. Lastly, we argue that results that are consistent across the two approaches constitute robust data that can be used for the parametrisation of sociohydrological models. Moreover, we posit that there is a need to improve socio-demographic heterogeneity in modelling human-water systems in order to better support risk management.

How to cite: Mondino, E., Scolobig, A., Borga, M., and Di Baldassarre, G.: Longitudinal Survey Data Call For Diversifying Temporal Dynamics In Modelling Human-Water Systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-90, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-90, 2021.

Water security in Central Asia (CA) plays a vital role because of transboundary river systems and interconnected infrastructure assets. Each CA country has differently contextualized the water security notion to serve national priorities and needs. Various scholars have studied and interpreted the concept of water security in CA through economic, environmental, social, and technical perspectives. Yet however, there is very little information on the perceptions of policymakers and water professionals that are directly engaged with the water policy discourse in the CA region.

In this regard, we attempted to identify policy makers and water professionals' views on water management and security aspects in CA.  A Delphi method was introduced through a two-round survey to decision-makers and water professionals to assess the rate of agreement on different water security dimensions that have been identified through a thorough literature review.

Namely, the dimensions associated with urban & household facilities, economic activities, environmental aspects and natural hazards were assessed, whereas different attributes related to each dimension were also considered. The first survey round explored the rate of agreement in the following six different sections: the proposed water security dimensions (1) and attributes (2) in CA; historical trends and dynamics of each dimension (3) and the implications on a policy level (4); the national priorities for each country (5); and the effectiveness of mechanisms dealing with regional water security issues (6).  The second round synopsized the initial findings by exploring whether a higher agreement rate was attained in each of the sections mentioned above.

 Clustering analysis was applied to better identify the agreement rate and assess decision-makers and water professionals' behavioral patterns within the two-survey rounds.  A number of clustering techniques were tested out. Methods such as K-Medoids, Spectral, Hierarchical, and Agglomerative clustering, as well as the Affinity Propagation, were applied. Hyperparameters were chosen based on the observations of how well the clusters are formed, i.e., how similar the responses are within the cluster and how much they differ from other clusters. The clustering was applied to the whole range of responses, as well as separately on different sections of the surveys.  

The findings indicate that the clustering of all six parts did not clearly define separation and distinctive agreement rates in the first survey round. However, when the clustering was performed within specific sections, e.g., the national priorities in each country, behavioral patterns were revealed among respondents. The clustering trends among sections became more apparent in the second survey round.  Our preliminary findings indicate that a set of socio-demographic and professional-related features of the participants are aligned with the patterns of the clustering outcomes on water security priorities in CA. The study findings could identify the major challenges that policymakers and water professionals face being mutually addressed by improving water security dialogue in the CA region.

How to cite: Assubayeva, A., Xenarios, S., Li, A., and Fazli, S.: Assessing Water Security in Central Asia through a Delphi Approach, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1472, 2021.

Socio-hydrogeology has been recently proposed as a new approach in the field of human-water research, focusing on the assessment of the reciprocity between people and groundwater. Notwithstanding some obvious similarities with socio-hydrology, there are notable, and indeed important differences; while socio-hydrology aims to investigate and understand the dynamic interactions and feedbacks between (surface)water and people, due to the more private and local nature of groundwater in many instances, socio-hydrogeology seeks to understand individuals and communities as a primary source, pathway and receptor for potable groundwater supplies, including the role of (local) knowledge, beliefs, risk perception, tradition/history, and consumption. In essence, the “socio” in socio-hydrology might be said to represent society, while its counterpart within socio-hydrogeology embodies sociology, including social, cognitive, behavioural and socio-epidemiological science. Moreover, while socio-hydrology tends towards examination of human-water interactions at relatively larges scales via coupled modelling, socio-hydrogeology is often focused at a significantly smaller scale (e.g. individual household or community supplies), and as such, employs a wide range of mixed methods, including modelling, albeit to a lesser degree. Being at its early development stage, the discipline is still being defined and formalized. Nevertheless, several researchers are currently implementing this approach worldwide.

By presenting a comparative analysis of the approaches and outcomes from several socio-hydrogeological studies undertaken across a range of socio-demographic and climatic regions including Canada, Italy, India, Ireland, Myanmar and Tunisia, this presentation will highlight the benefits and shortcomings of going beyond classical hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical investigations targeted to assess the impact of human activities on groundwater quality and quantity, and indeed, the effects of these impacts on associated individuals and communities (i.e. humans frequently represent the issue, the receptor and the solution). By shedding light on the added value of understanding the cause-effect relations between people and the hidden component of the water cycle (e.g. to jointly assess how scarce and polluted groundwater affect human/social wellbeing), socio-hydrogeology can provide evidence-based solutions to regionally bespoke problems. Similarly, otherwise neglected local or regional information can add value to scientific outcomes and contribute to foster new groundwater management actions tailored on the needs of local populations as well as on the overall achievement of long-term sustainability. Socio-hydrogeology can therefore provide new insights useful for socio-hydrological modelling, and, together, they can effectively underpin successful Integrated Water Resources Management plans at local and regional scale. Perhaps most importantly, it is hoped that by initiating discussion between practitioners of both sub-disciplines, experiences, expertise and perspectives can be shared and employed (e.g. more “technical” modelling within socio-hydrogeology, increased integration of “non-expert” knowledge within socio-hydrology) in order to bolster both areas of study, with an overarching objective of protecting the entire hydrological cycle, and the people supplied and impacted by it.

How to cite: Re, V., Hynds, P., Frommen, T., and Limaye, S.: Socio-Hydrogeology: uncovering the hidden connections within the Human-Groundwater Cycle, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-493, 2021.

Climate change has caused many environmental problems, as well as water and food insecurity, and health and social impacts in many parts of the world, and especially in the world’s vulnerable regions such as developing countries. Studies have demonstrated the impacts of socio-economic and climate changes and how they result in water and environmental problems at global and regional scales. Socio-economic variation and climatic change influence the dynamic interaction of human and water systems, and our ability to address environmental problems at sub-regional scales. From this perspective, the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), as a form of alternative development scenarios, were recently introduced to help decision-makers to cope with uncertain futures and improve their policies for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. To take advantage of SSP scenarios for policy guidance at regional and national scales, it is necessary to explore the socio-economic feedbacks and water management policies informed by different sub-regional knowledge sharing through stakeholders’ narratives. In this study, we link SSP scenarios developed with regional stakeholders using a coupled socio-economic and environmental model, in conjunction with stakeholder-generated narrative storylines for a sub-region of Pakistan. The framework allows for linking corresponding scenarios across different uncertainty levels to improve regional scale policy making, while providing knowledge regarding the future of human-water systems under a range of plausible future climate and socio-economic scenarios.

How to cite: Alizadeh, M., Adamowski, J., and Inam, A.: Linking stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways for policy making in human-water systems, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8132, 2021.

The presented session examines the politicization of hydrological science and discusses the current implications for misinterpreting the hydrological data that undermine trust in science. As a result of growing medialization of hydrological studies and simplifying the research conclusions for the wide public, it is more difficult for hydrologists to keep scientific integrity and not fall into the realm of subjectivism. By close analysis of two hydrological studies (Pöyry Report and Eyes on Earth Studies), we noticed that (1) research conclusions may be tailored to political demand, (2) intentionally overlook basic theoretical-methodological research standards, and (3) negatively influenced by social media, especially when the research conclusions do not correspond with scientific reviews nor official speech acts from state authorities. On the other hand, we also found several unintended consequences that make politicization science useful and even positive, especially in terms of changing the social perception of water or deepening the water cooperation in hydrological monitoring which still remain sensitive political issues in many corners of the world.

By drawing on the socio-hydrology and critical hydropolitical theories, this session (i) explores the current challenges for interpreting the hydrological studies, (ii) clarify the techniques how to prevent misinterpretation of the hydrological data, and (iii) demonstrate the politicization of the hydrological science on two micro-case studies within the Mekong River Basin that raise controversies among scientists and potential disputes among states. While the Pöyry Report conclusions served as a political tool to justify the construction of Xayaburi hydropower dam in Laos regardless the opposition of downstream countries, the Eyes on Earth Study was designed to undermine mutual trust among Mekong states and damage the credibility of other hydrological studies that do not share the same opinion on hydrological changes in the Mekong River Basin. The data were retrieved from the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation and Conflict Database (LMCCD) and double-checked with the literature review of the official documents and media sources related to Pöyry Report and Eyes on Earth Study.

How to cite: Grünwald, R., Wang, W., and Feng, Y.: Losing faith, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1553, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1553, 2021.