CR4.1

The early Cenozoic Antarctic ice sheet has grown non-linearly to a continental-scale ice sheet close to the Eocene-Oligocene boundary when environmental conditions were favourable. These favourable conditions included the movement of the continent towards the South Pole, the thermal isolation of the Antarctic continent and declining atmospheric CO₂ concentrations.  Once the threshold for ice sheet growth was reached, a series of positive feedbacks led to the formation of a continental-scale ice sheet.

The thresholds for growth and decline of a continental scale ice sheet are different. The ice sheet state is dependent on the initial conditions, an effect called hysteresis. Here we present the hysteresis behaviour of the early Cenozoic Antarctic ice sheet for different bedrock elevation reconstructions. The ice sheet-climate coupler CLISEMv1.0 is used and captures both the height-mass balance and the ice-albedo feedback accurately. Additionally, the influence of the different orbital parameters on the threshold to glaciation and deglaciation is investigated in detail. It appears that the long-term eccentricity cycle has a significant influence on the ice sheet growth and decline and is able to pace the ice sheet evolution for constant CO₂ concentration close to the glaciation threshold.

How to cite: Van Breedam, J., Huybrechts, P., and Crucifix, M.: Hysteresis and orbital pacing of the early Cenozoic Antarctic ice sheet, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1501, 2022.

Benthic δ¹⁸O levels vary strongly during the warmer-than-modern early- and mid-Miocene (23 to 14 Myr ago), suggesting a dynamic Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). So far, however, realistic simulations of the Miocene AIS have been limited to equilibrium states under different CO₂ levels and orbital settings. Earlier transient simulations lacked ice-sheet-atmosphere interactions, and used a present-day rather than Miocene Antarctic bedrock topography. Here, we quantify the effect of ice-sheet-atmosphere interactions, running IMAU-ICE using climate forcing from Miocene simulations by the general circulation model GENESIS. Utilising a recently developed matrix interpolation method enables us to interpolate the climate forcing based on CO₂ levels (between 280 and 840 ppm) as well as varying ice sheet configurations (between no ice and a large East Antarctic ice sheet). We furthermore implement recent reconstructions of Miocene Antarctic bedrock topography. We find that the positive albedo-temperature feedback, partly compensated by a negative feedback between ice volume and precipitation, increases hysteresis in the relation between CO₂ and ice volume. Together, these ice-sheet-atmosphere interactions decrease the amplitude of Miocene AIS variability in idealised transient simulations. Forced by quasi-orbital 40-kyr forcing CO₂ cycles, the ice volume variability reduces by 21% when ice-sheet-atmosphere interactions are included, compared to when forcing variability is only based on CO₂ changes. Thereby, these interactions also diminish the contribution of AIS variability to benthic δ¹⁸O fluctuations. Evolving bedrock topography during the early- and mid-Miocene reduces ice volume variability by 10%, under equal 40-kyr cycles of atmosphere and ocean forcing. 

How to cite: Stap, L. B., Berends, C. J., Scherrenberg, M. D. W., van de Wal, R. S. W., and Gasson, E. G. W.: Net effect of ice-sheet-atmosphere interactions reduces simulated transient Miocene Antarctic ice sheet variability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2829, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2829, 2022.

The mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO, ~17-15 Ma) and the mid-Miocene Climatic Transition (MCT, ~15-13.5 Ma),  represents a period of high policy relevance because of the high atmospheric pCO2 concentrations. Exploring this period offers the opportunity to investigate the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) response to CO2 forcings that are close to those projected in the medium to worse case emission scenarios. A set of equilibrium simulations with the 3D ice sheet model Yelmo allows us to study the envelope of the AIS volume and extent during the MMCO (17 Ma) and MCT (14 Ma). These simulations are forced off-line with equilibrium climatic conditions  obtained with the Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) IPSL CM5A2.  Two values of the reconstructed atmospheric pCO2, i.e. 420 ppm and 700 ppm, are prescribed, for an orbital configuration corresponding to minimum and maximum insolation values at 75°S each (9 climate simulations in total). Thanks to these different configurations we simulated the AIS dynamics. Results show that at 17 Ma, warmer conditions produce an AIS that is drastically reduced with respect to today’s configuration. At 14 Ma, cooler climatic conditions allow the AIS to expand again. This is in agreement with the geological records of the AIS dynamics that reveal a substantial expansion of the ice sheet at the end of the MCT. Since Antarctica is the only ice sheet at this time, our set of climate and ice-sheet simulations capture the envelope of ice volume and extent of the AIS. Moreover, such studies contribute to a better understanding of the 𝛿¹⁸O records and of the evolution of deep ocean temperature versus ice volume and global mean sea level change.

How to cite: Segalla, D., Blasco Navarro, J., Ramstein, G., Fluteau, F., Robinson, A. J., Alvarez-Solas, J., Montoya Redondo, M. L., and Colleoni, F.: Antarctic Ice Sheet  simulations using Yelmo ice sheet model and a series of IPSL CM5A2 climate simulations between 17 Ma and 14 Ma, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-7293, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7293, 2022.

A leading contender for explaining the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT) from small 40 kyr glaciations to large, abruptly terminating 100 kyr ones is a shift to high friction bed under the Northern hemisphere ice sheets – the North American ice sheet in particular. The regolith hypothesis posits that this occurred with the removal of deformable regolith – laying bare higher-friction bedrock under ice sheet core domains. Is the regolith hypothesis consistent with the physics of glacial removal of mechanically weak surface material?                

Self-consistency of the regolith hypothesis has not been tested for a realistic, 3D North American ice sheet, capturing the transition from soft to hard bedded and 40 to 100 kyr cycles, fully considering basal processes and sediment production. To test self-consistency, we simulate the pace and distribution of regolith removal in a numerical ice sheet model incorporating the relevant glacial processes and their uncertainties. Specifically, the Glacial Systems Model includes: fully coupled sediment production and transport, subglacial hydrology, glacial isostatic adjustment, 3D thermomechanically coupled hybrid ice physics, and internal climate solution from a 2D non-linear energy balance model. The sediment model produces sediment via quarrying and abrasion while transporting material englacially and subglacially. The subglacial hydrology model employs a linked-cavity system with a flux based switch to tunnel drainage, giving dynamic effective pressure needed for realistic sediment and sliding processes. Deflection and rebound of the Earth's surface are calculated for a range of solid Earth visco-elastic rheologies.  The coupled system is driven only by prescribed atmospheric CO2 and orbitally derived insolation.

Starting from a range of initial sediment distributions and simulating an ensemble of model parameter values, we model the rate and spatial distribution of regolith dispersal and compare this against the inferred range of Pliocene regolith thickness, the present day sediment distribution, and the timing of the MPT. A first order fully coupled representation of ice, climate and sediment interactions captures the transition within parametric and observational uncertainty. The system gives the shift from 40 to 100 kyr glacial cycles while broadly reproducing the present day sediment distribution, inferred early Pleistocene extent, LGM ice volume and deglacial margin locations.

How to cite: Drew, M. and Tarasov, L.: A test of the Regolith Hypothesis with fully coupled glacial sediment and ice sheet modelling, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10821, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10821, 2022.

In this study, we investigate the sensitivity of the glacial Alpine hydro-climate to changes of the Laurentide ice sheet (LIS). Bridging the scale gap by using a chain of global and regional climate models, we perform sensitivity simulations of up to 2 km horizontal resolution over the Alps for the Last Glacial Maximum and the Marine Isotope Stage 4. In winter, we find wetter conditions in the southern part of the Alps during glacial conditions compared to present day, to which dynamical processes, i.e.  changes in the wind speed and direction, substantially contribute. During summer, we find the expected drier conditions in most of the Alpine region during glacial conditions, as thermodynamics suggests drier conditions under lower temperatures. The sensitivity simulations of the LIS changes show that an increase of the ice-sheet thickness leads to a significant intensification of glacial Alpine hydro-climate conditions, which is mainly explained by dynamical processes. The findings demonstrate that the Laurentide ice-sheet topography plays an important role in regulating the Alpine hydro-climate and thus permits a better understanding of the precipitation patterns in the complex Alpine terrain at glacial times.

How to cite: Velasquez, P., Messmer, M., and Raible, C. C.: The role of the Laurentide ice-sheet topography in the Alpine hydro-climate at glacial times, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1635, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1635, 2022.

Transitions from a stable, periodically oscillating ice-sheet system to a perpetual ice stream has potentially far-reaching implications for the timing of the onset of the last deglaciation as well as for climate transitions such as the Younger Dryas. These periodical ice-sheet oscillations known as Heinrich-type ice sheet surges are among the most dominant signals of glacial climate variability. They are quasi-periodic events during which large amounts of ice are discharged from ice sheets into the ocean. The addition of freshwater strongly affects the ocean circulation, resulting in a pronounced cooling in the North Atlantic region. In addition, changes in the ice sheet geometry also have significant effects on the climate. Here, we use a coupled ice sheet-solid earth model that is driven with forcing from a comprehensive Earth System Model that includes interactive ice sheets to identify key drivers controlling the surge cycle length of Heinrich-type ice-sheet surges from two main outlet glaciers of the Laurentide ice sheet. Our simulations show different surge initiation behaviour for the land-terminating Mackenzie ice stream and marine-terminating Hudson ice stream. For both ice streams, the surface mass balance has the largest effect on the surge cycle length. Ice surface temperature and geothermal heat flux also influence the surge cycle length, but to a lesser degree. Ocean forcing and different frequencies of the same forcing have a negligible effect on the surge cycle length. The simulations also highlight that a certain parameter space exists under which stable surge oscillations can be maintained. This parameter range is much narrower for the Mackenzie ice stream than for the Hudson ice stream. Leaving the stable regime results in a dynamical switch that turns the system from periodically oscillating system into a perpetual ice stream system. This transition can lead to a volume loss of up to 36% for the respective ice stream drainage basin under otherwise glacial climate conditions.

How to cite: Schannwell, C., Mikolajewicz, U., Ziemen, F., and Kapsch, M.-L.: Sensitivity of Heinrich-type ice sheet surges and their implications for the last deglaciation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6242, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6242, 2022.

The Cordilleran Ice Sheet in western North America was of comparable size and topographic setting to the modern Greenland Ice Sheet and exhibited similar dynamics. Ice streams channelled rapid flow and the western ice margin terminated in both marine and terrestrial environments. Reconstructing Cordilleran Ice Sheet retreat can therefore provide a helpful analogue for how the Greenland Ice Sheet may respond to changing climate and underlying topography in the future. Moreover, deglaciation in this region controlled routes available for early human migration into the Americas. Here, we present cosmogenic ¹⁰Be nuclide exposure ages from glacial erratics and bedrock on the west coast of British Columbia (53.4°N, 129.8°W) that add to existing chronologies along ~600 km of coastal North America. Collectively, these data show deglaciation back to the present coastline by ca. 18–16 ka. Retreat then slowed and ice seemingly stabilised close to the present coastline for several thousand years until ca. 14–13 ka. Ice may still have been lost during this period of relative stability, but through vertical thinning rather than lateral retreat. We attribute initial retreat to destabilisation and grounding line retreat resulting from rising sea level and/or ocean warming in the northern Pacific. Subsequent stability at the present coast was likely due to the transition from marine to terrestrial margins despite increasing temperatures that may have driven ice sheet thinning. Hence, we show the importance of understanding both climatic and non-climatic drivers of ice sheet change through time. We also show that hundreds of kilometres of coastline were free of ice prior to an important period of early human migration into the Americas.

How to cite: Darvill, C., Menounos, B., Goehring, B., and Lesnek, A.: Reconstructing Cordilleran Ice Sheet stability in western Canada during the Last Deglaciation, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2831, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2831, 2022.

Understanding the response of ice sheets to global temperature changes is a critical issue for the climate community. To accurately simulate future ice sheet evolution, we need to know the strength of feedbacks between the climate and ice sheets. Testing the ability of coupled climate-ice sheet models to simulate past ice sheet extent can provide a way to evaluate the models and ground truth projections. One example is the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), when huge ice sheets covered the Northern Hemisphere, especially over the North America. Here, we performed simulations of the North American ice sheet and climate of the LGM with a recently updated ice sheet-atmosphere coupled model Famous-Ice (Smith et al. 2021, Gregory et al. 2020). The model consists of a low-resolution atmospheric general circulation model Famous (Smith et al. 2008) and an ice sheet model BISICLES (Cornford et al. 2013). It calculates the surface mass balance over ice sheets based on an energy budget scheme and incorporates an updated albedo scheme, which accounts for albedo changes associated with modifications in surface air temperature, grain size and density of the snow. The atmospheric model reproduces the surface mass balance of the modern Greenland ice sheet reasonably well (Smith et al. 2021). Simulations of projections of future sea-level rise (Gregory et al. 2020) and the LGM (Gandy et al. in prep) have also been performed with Famous-Ice using a different ice sheet model GLIMMER.

We present simulations of the LGM with interactive ice sheets in North America and Greenland using FAMOUS-BISICLES. Uncertain input parameters controlling the surface temperatures and ice albedo are varied in our simulations. The global temperature is specified by applying fixed sea surface temperature in the atmospheric model producing a global cooling that ranges from -3K to -6.5K in the simulations. The bare ice minimum albedo is varied from 0.2 to 0.7, which corresponds to the range in PMIP3 models. Our results show a better representation of North American ice sheet when forced with a colder LGM (-6.5K) and high bare ice albedo. We will further discuss potential roles of model biases and compare our results with simulations performed with FAMOUS-GLIMMER (Gandy et al. in prep).

How to cite: Sherriff-Tadano, S., Gandy, N., Ivanovic, R., Gregoire, L., Lang, C., Gregory, J., and Smith, R.: Simulations of North American ice sheet at the LGM with FAMOUS-BISICLES and its sensitivity to global temperatures, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3293, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3293, 2022.

For simulating ice sheet – climate interactions on multi-millennial time-scales, a set-up that uses a two-way coupled Earth System Model would be ideal. However, running these simulations over multi-millennium time-scales while including ice sheets, is not feasible. Alternatively, ice sheet models can be forced by interpolating climate time-slices, allowing for a transient forcing to an ice sheet model at limited computational costs.

Here, we compare two methods that interpolate between climate time-slices to create a transient forcing for ice sheet simulations. Firstly, we use a glacial index method, in which the climate is linearly interpolated between time-slices based only on prescribed atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Secondly, we use a climate matrix method in which the interpolation is not only dependent on the prescribed CO₂ concentration, but also on internally generated thickness, volume and albedo. As a result, the climate matrix method captures ice-sheet atmosphere feedbacks.

Here we present ice sheet simulations of the Last Glacial Cycle using IMAU-ICE forced with Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Pre-Industrial time-slices. For the time-slices we use the output from nine Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3) GCMs. Our aim is to compare and to evaluate the differences in ice sheet evolution and LGM volume and extent resulting from the different PMIP3 models and the interpolation method used for transient simulations.

For most PMIP3 forcings, both the North-American and Eurasian ice sheets build up quicker in the climate matrix method compared to the glacial index method, which is in better agreement with paleo-observations. This is mostly a result from precipitation differences between the two interpolation methods: In the climate matrix method the interpolation of precipitation is dependent on internally generated ice thickness instead of only CO₂. Therefore, when ice thickness is smaller than LGM, the interpolation tends to shift more towards pre-industrial in the climate matrix method compared to the glacial index method. As precipitation is larger during pre-industrial compared to LGM in most Eurasian and North-American regions, this leads to a larger precipitation in the climate matrix method, increasing ice sheet volume. Similarly, the climate matrix method results into warmer temperatures in ice-free areas as the interpolation is dependent on both CO2, albedo and insolation. However, for most PMIP3 models, this ice sheet-temperature feedback does not cancel-out the increased precipitation in the climate matrix method.

How to cite: Scherrenberg, M. D. W., van de Wal, R. S. W., Berends, C. J., and Stap, L. B.: Simulating the Last Glacial Cycle using a Glacial Index and Climate Matrix Method, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5261, 2022.

During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 23,000 to 19,000 years ago), the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) covered the central chain of the Andes between ~ 38 °S to 55 °S. From limited paleoclimatic evidence, especially that derived from glacial landforms, it becomes clear that maximum ice sheet expansions in the Southern and Northern Hemispheres were not synchronized. However, large uncertainties still exist in the timing of the onset of regional deglaciation as well as its major drivers. Ice sheet modelling combined with glacial geochronology and paleoclimate reconstructions can provide important information on the PIS geometry, ice volume and its contribution to the sea level low during the LGM. It can also help to test different paleoclimate scenarios and identify climate models that capture regional climate responses to the global change in a realistic manner.

Here we present an ensemble of numerical simulations of the PIS during the LGM with an aim to constrain the most likely LGM climate conditions that can explain the reconstructed geometry of the PIS in a satisfactory manner. The PIS model is driven by the climate forcing that fuse near-surface air temperatures and precipitation rates from the ERA5 reanalysis with the paleoclimate model outputs from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2 and PMIP3) and the in-house Community Earth System Model (CESM) experiments. Our analysis suggests a strong dependence of the PIS geometry on the near-surface air temperature forcing. All the ensemble experiments designed with PMIP and in-house CESM experiments fail to reproduce the ice sheet extent between 38 and 42 °S. The most realistic performance for the LGM ice sheet extents south of 38 °S has been derived using those climate models that have a higher spatial resolution. The latter helps these models to capture regional climate conditions in a more physically consistent manner. It should be kept in mind that this analysis is based on the evaluation of the modelled ice sheet extents only, as geological evidence on the former ice sheet thickness is still scarce. Nevertheless, it can be shown that a realistic ice sheet geometry during the LGM is consistent with a regional decrease in air temperature of 7 to 12 °C and an increase in precipitation of 400 to 1500 mm/year along the western sectors of the PIS.

How to cite: Retamal-Ramírez, F., Castillo, A., Bernales, J., and Rogozhina, I.: Reconstruction of the Patagonian Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum using numerical modelling and geological constraints, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1774, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1774, 2022.

Long-term simulations of ice sheets and their interaction with the climate system require the application of Earth system models with interactive ice sheet components. To this end we present the first experiments performed with the CMIP6-type Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) including a Greenland ice sheet model component. We present our coupling and modelling strategy, which builds on earlier work with the Community Earth System Model and show first results for two NorESM2 version with different resolution of the atmospheric component. We have performed and analyzed pre-industrial spinup and control experiments, historical runs and future projections under scenario ssp585, following the ISMIP6 protocol.

How to cite: Goelzer, H., Langebroek, P., and Born, A.: Coupled Greenland ice sheet-climate simulations with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2516, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2516, 2022.

As part of a project working to improve coupled climate-ice sheet modelling of the response of ice sheets to changes in climate across different periods since the Last Glacial Maximum, we present simulations of the modern Greenland climate and ice sheet using the FAMOUS-BISICLES model.

FAMOUS-BISICLES, a variant of FAMOUS-ice (Smith et al., 2021a), is a low resolution (7.5°X5°) global climate model that is two-way coupled to a higher resolution (minimum grid spacing of 1.2 km) adaptive mesh ice sheet model, BISICLES. It uses a system of elevation classes to downscale the lower resolution atmospheric variables onto the ice sheet grid and calculates surface mass balance using a multilayer snow model. FAMOUS-ice is computationally affordable enough to simulate the millennial evolution of the coupled climate-ice sheet system, and has been shown to simulate Greenland well in previous work using the Glimmer shallow ice model (Gregory et al., 2020).

The ice sheet volume and area are sensitive to a number of parametrisations related to atmospheric and snow surface processes and ice sheet dynamics. Based on that, we designed a perturbed parameters ensemble using a Latin Hypercube sampling technique and ran simulations with climate forcings appropriate for the late 20^th century. The ice sheet area and volume are most correlated to parameters that set the snow/firn albedo while the relationship is less simple for parameters related to clouds and precipitation.

We compare FAMOUS-ice SMB and coupled behaviour against the more sophisticated, higher resolution, CMIP6-class UKESM-ice coupled climate ice sheet model for a late 20^th century simulation as well as an abrupt 4XCO₂ experiment.

Our simulations produce a large range of climate and ice sheet behaviours, including a stable control state for the modern Greenland, and we have been able to highlight the sensitivity of the system to other sets of parameters and future changes in climate.

How to cite: Lang, C., Lee, V., Sherriff-Tadano, S., Gandy, N., Gregory, J., Ivanovic, R., Gregoire, L., and Smith, R. S.: Evaluation of a coupled climate ice sheet model over the Greenland ice sheet and sensitivity to atmospheric, snow and ice sheet parameters, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11929, 2022.

Over the past decade, Greenland has experienced several extreme melt events, the most pronounced ones in the years 2010, 2012 and 2019. With progressing climate change, such extreme melt events can be expected to occur more frequently and potentially become more severe. So far, however, projections of ice loss and sea-level change from Greenland typically rely on scenarios that only take gradual changes in the climate into account. 
Here we investigate the effect of extreme melt events on the ice dynamics and overall mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). While the extremes generally lead to thinning of the ice sheet by enhanced melting, they partly also decrease the overall ice surface velocities due to a reduced driving gradient. In our simulations, we find that taking extreme events into account leads to additional ice loss compared to the baseline scenario without extremes. We find that the sea-level contribution from Greenland could increase by up to 45 cm by the year 2300 if severe extreme events are considered in future projections. We conclude that both changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events need to be taken into account when projecting the future sea-level contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet.

How to cite: Beckmann, J. and Winkelmann, R.: Effects of extreme melt events on the Greenland ice sheet, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11407, 2022.

Ice sheets and the rest of the climate system interact in various ways, notably via the atmosphere, ocean and solid earth. Atmospheric and oceanic temperatures and circulations affect the evolution of ice-sheets, and conversely ice-sheet evolution impacts the rest of the climate system via various processes, including albedo modification, topographic changes and freshwater flux release into the ocean. To correctly model the evolution of the climate system and sea level rise, these feedbacks therefore need to be considered.

Under the highest emission scenario, temperature is expected to reach levels comparable to the Eocene epoch in a few centuries [1]. At this time, there was no widespread glaciation in Antarctica.

The work of Garbe et al [2] has shown that the Antarctic ice sheet has a hysteresis behavior and gave different temperature thresholds leading to committed Antarctic mass loss. For example, between 6 and 9 degrees of warming (a global temperature increase comparable to the one expected in 2300 for the most emissive scenario), the loss of 70% of the present-day ice volume is triggered. However, the modelling study used idealized perturbations of the climate fields based solely on global mean temperature. More specifically, global mean temperature is translated into local changes of ocean and surface air temperature and increased until a complete deglaciation of the Antarctic ice-sheet is reached. In addition the study did not take into account the ice sheet change feedback on the climate system.

In our work we intend to go a step further by taking into account both the influence of atmosphere and oceanic temperature and circulations on the ice sheet in a physical way, as well as the influence of the ice sheet on the rest of the climate system.

To do so, we use the coupled ocean-atmosphere-vegetation intermediate complexity model iLOVECLIM [3], fully coupled to the GRISLI ice-sheet model for Antarctica [4, 5].

We perform several multi-millenia equilibria simulations for different pCO2 levels, thanks to the relative rapidity of both the iLOVECLIM and GRISLI models. These simulations lead to different atmospheric and oceanic temperatures and Antarctic mass loss. 

These coupled simulations allow us to explore the impact of the ice sheet feedback on the climate and to investigate the differences compared to cases where these feedbacks are not included. The influence of the model parameters linked to the ice sheet coupling is also studied.

References :

[1] Westerhold et al 2020, “An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years”

[2] Garbe et al 2020 “The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet”

[3] Quiquet et al 2018, “Online dynamical downscaling of temperature and precipitation within the iLOVECLIM model (version 1.1)”

[4] Quiquet et al 2018, “The GRISLI ice sheet model (version 2.0): calibration and validation for multi-millennial changes of the Antarctic ice sheet”

[5] Quiquet et al 2021 “Climate and ice sheet evolutions from the last glacial maximum to the pre-industrial period with an ice-sheet–climate coupled model”

How to cite: Leloup, G., Quiquet, A., Dumas, C., Roche, D., and Paillard, D.: Antarctic-climate multi-millenia coupled simulations under different pCO2 levels with the iLOVECLIM-GRISLI model, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4740, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4740, 2022.

Snowfall is by far the most important positive contributor to the overall mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, potentially buffering temperature-induced dynamical ice loss in a warming climate. Previous studies have proposed that Antarctic snowfall will increase along the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, describing the saturation water vapour pressure as a function of temperature (7% change for 1°C of warming). Due to cold temperatures and continentality in the interior, this general, first-order explanation may not hold true for snowfall changes across the ice sheet. In this study, we investigate how this first-order approximation can be modified to more reliably represent snowfall changes in a warming climate for simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

To characterise the present-day precipitation pattern, we use reanalysis data and make use of state-of-the-art model data from the CMIP6 modelling project as well as regional model data. We analyse how the sensitivity of Antarctic precipitation to temperature changes is represented in models and how it potentially changes in the future. We use least-squares linear regression to determine the sensitivity factor, Antarctica’s x-factor, that is used in ice-sheet models to scale precipitation. 

With our statistical analyses, we show that sensitivities of column-integrated water vapour, precipitation, snowfall, net precipitation, and surface mass balance to temperature changes are fairly similar under present-day conditions; implying that the exponential relationship of saturation water vapour pressure to temperature could generally lead to additional mass gains of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with warming. However, we find that the relationship of Antarctic precipitation to temperatures across the ice sheet is not constant, but decreases with ongoing warming. Taking these changes into account could give a more reliable estimate of future precipitation changes than existing approaches. We demonstrate that a linear approximation of the exponential relationship between Antarctic precipitation and temperature becomes more and more imprecise in a warming climate, both for computing the sensitivity factor and to scale Antarctic precipitation in models.

We propose a new way to extract the sensitivity factor of Antarctic precipitation to temperature which takes regional variations and the temperature dependence into account. The temperature dependence becomes more important the higher the warming becomes. Considering local warming rates, we show the necessity of introducing a temperature-dependent scaling factor in ice-sheet models, especially for high-end or long-term sea-level projections.

How to cite: Nicola, L., Notz, P. D., and Winkelmann, P. R.: Antarctica’s x-factor: How does Antarctic precipitation change with temperature?, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9983, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9983, 2022.

With a volume of 58 m sea-level equivalent, the Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest potential source of future sea-level rise under global warming. While the ice sheet gains mass through snowfall at the surface, it loses mass through dynamic discharge and iceberg calving into the ocean, as well as by melting at the surface and underneath its floating ice shelves.

Already today, Antarctica is contributing to sea-level rise. So far, this contribution has been comparatively modest, but is expected to increase in the future. Most of the current mass losses are concentrated in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, mainly caused by sub-shelf melting and ice discharge. Because air temperatures are low and thus surface melt rates are small, any significant melting at the surface is restricted to the low-elevation coastal zones. At the same time, most of the mass loss is offset by snowfall, which is projected to further increase in a warming atmosphere.

As warming progresses over the coming centuries, the question arises as to how long the mass losses on the one side will be compensated by the gains on the other. In 21st-century projections, increasing surface mass balance is outweighing increased discharge even under strong warming scenarios. However, in long-term (multi-century to millennium scale) warming simulations the positive surface mass balance trend shows a peak and subsequent reversal. Owing to positive feedbacks, like the surface-elevation or the ice-albedo feedback, this effect can be enhanced once a surface lowering is triggered or the surface reflectivity is lowered by initial melt.

Here, we implement a simplified version of the diurnal Energy Balance Model (dEBM-simple) as a surface module in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), which extends the conventional positive-degree-day (PDD) approach to include the influence of solar radiation and parameterizes the ice albedo as a function of melting, implicitly accounting for the ice-albedo feedback.

Using a model sensitivity ensemble, we analyze the range of possible surface mass balance evolutions over the 21st century as well as in long-term simulations based on extended end-of-century climatological conditions with the coupled model. The comparison with the PDD approach hints to a strong overestimation of surface melt rates of the latter, even under present day conditions. The dEBM-simple further allows us to disentangle the respective contributions of temperature- and insolation-driven surface melt to future sea level rise.

How to cite: Garbe, J., Zeitz, M., Krebs-Kanzow, U., and Winkelmann, R.: The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10008, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10008, 2022.