HS2.1.1 | Changes in the Mediterranean hydrology: observation and modeling
Changes in the Mediterranean hydrology: observation and modeling
Convener: Lionel Jarlan | Co-conveners: Simon Gascoin, Said Khabba, María José Polo, Yves Tramblay
Orals
| Mon, 24 Apr, 08:30–10:15 (CEST)
 
Room 2.31
Posters on site
| Attendance Mon, 24 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)
 
Hall A
Posters virtual
| Attendance Mon, 24 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)
 
vHall HS
Orals |
Mon, 08:30
Mon, 10:45
Mon, 10:45
Water is a strategic issue in the Mediterranean region, mainly because of the scarcity of the available resources, in quantity and/or quality. The Mediterranean climate and the surface hydrology are characterized by a strong variability in time and space and the importance of extreme events, droughts and floods. This irregularity is also met at a lower level in aquifers dynamics. During the last century, modifications of all kinds and intensities have affected surface conditions and water uses. The Mediterranean hydrology is then continuously evolving.

This session intends to identify and analyse the changes in the Mediterranean hydrology, in terms of processes, fluxes, location. It will gather specialists in observation and modeling of the various water fluxes and redistribution processes within the catchments.
Contributions addressing the following topics are welcome:

• Spectacular case studies of rapid changes in water resources;
• Using various sources of information for comparing past and present conditions;
• Differentiating climatic and anthropogenic drivers (including GCM reanalysis);
• Modelling hydrological changes (in surface and/or ground water);
• Impacts of extreme events on water systems.

Orals: Mon, 24 Apr | Room 2.31

Chairpersons: Simon Gascoin, Yves Tramblay, María José Polo
08:30–08:35
08:35–08:45
|
EGU23-3584
|
Virtual presentation
Teresa Alejandra Palacios Cabrera, Antonio Jodar Abellan, Damaris Núñez Gómez, Pablo Melgarejo, Derdour Abdessamed, Ryan Bailey, and Seyed Babak Haiji Seyed

Assessing urban water supply from karstic groundwater reservoirs through two hydrological models and the Exploitation Index in the southeast of Spain

Teresa Palacios-Cabrera1, Antonio Jodar-Abellan2, Ryan T. Bailey3, Dámaris Núñez-Gómez2, Derdour Abdessamed4, Seyed Babak Haji Seyed Asadollah5, Pablo Melgarejo2

1Faculty of Geology, Mines, Petroleum and Environmental Engineering. Central University of Ecuador. teresaalejandrap3@gmail.com

2Centro de Investigación e Innovación Agroalimentario y Agroambiental (CIAGRO), Miguel Hernández University (UMH). Orihuela, Spain.

3Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.

4Laboratory for the Sustainable Management of Natural Resources in Arid and Semi‑arid Zones. University Center Salhi Ahmed Naama (Ctr Univ Naama). P.O. Box 66, Naama 45000. Algeria.

5Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract:

Nowadays, numerous urban settlements in arid and semiarid areas are supplied by groundwater from adjacent small aquifers. Climate change with expected decreases in averages precipitation values jointly with increases in the frequency of heavy rainfall events does not show a clear pattner to how water resources in karstic aquifers are going to evolve. This work, focused in the Guadalest watershed (province of Alicante, southeast of Spain) assesses the behaviour of four karstic aquifers (the Mela, Beniardá-Polop, Benimantell and Serralla-Aixorta aquifers), whose resources supply urban water consumption for close municipalities. In these aquifers, we estimate groundwater recharge, extractions and their relation within the Exploitation Index (EI) by using the SWAT and SIMPA models, previously calibrated and validated in this watershed, during the period 1980-2016. These groundwater estimations were tested (validated) with field measurements performed by local authorities during the above mentioned period. Thus, in the Mela aquifer an EI of 0.19 was estimated with SWAT and SIMPA while an EI of 0.13 was obtained by local authorities; in the Beniardá-Polop aquifer an EI of 1.43 was estimated while an EI of 1.26 was obtained in the fieldwork; in Benimantell an EI of 0.25 and an EI of 0.22 were estimated and obtained respectively; and finally in the Serralla-Aixorta aquifer an EI of 0.19 and an EI of 0.2 were estimated and obtained respectively. Our results denote that: i) both models simulate correctly groundwater abstractions; ii) assessed aquifers depict a clear reduction of their reserves during the study period which represent an important issue considering that currently groundwater extractions are the unique water source of these populations. Therefore, it will be necessary to design supply strategies for these inhabitants and to carry out them, meeting budget restrictions and avoiding potential water shortages.

Keywords: groundwater; SWAT; SIMPA; Exploitation Index; urban water supply; southeast of Spain.

How to cite: Palacios Cabrera, T. A., Jodar Abellan, A., Núñez Gómez, D., Melgarejo, P., Abdessamed, D., Bailey, R., and Haiji Seyed, S. B.: Assessing urban water supply from karstic groundwater reservoirs through two hydrological models and the Exploitation Index in the southeast of Spain, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3584, 2023.

08:45–08:55
|
EGU23-6734
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
Pierre-Alain Guisiano, Sébastien Santoni, Frédéric Huneau, Émilie Garel, and Alexandra Mattei

Most of the Mediterranean basin coasts are bordered by high mountain ranges (Atlas e.g.). As a result, most of the coastal socio-economic activities are highly dependent on the availability of water from mountainous catchment areas. However, these resources are increasingly vulnerable to climate change, population growth and agricultural development. Given the seasonality of rainfall with high water deficit during summer, groundwater covers a large part of the water supply and appears to be also essential to maintain river flows as well as their ecological continuity. However, one of the most important knowledge gap remains in the characterization and quantification of the watershed contributors supplying river flow through time and space. And this is especially the case for groundwater and delayed subsurface flow. Therefore, the aim of our research consisted in characterizing the baseflow component, as the contribution coming from groundwater and delayed subsurface flow, over two full hydrological years for selected representative mountainous watersheds: The Tavignanu and Fium’Altu basins (Corsica, France). Due to its location in the western Mediterranean basin as well as its diversity in catchment morphologies and lithologies, Corsica is an excellent observatory of any mountainous hydrological processes. In this purpose, different promising tools scarcely used in the Mediterranean context are available to perform baseflow analysis:

- On the one hand, the non-tracer-based methods, including several technics ranging from an empirical to an analytical basis

- On the other hand, the tracer-based methods including the use of water stable isotopes and hydrogeochemical tracers in a mass balance procedure

It allowed to test and highlight the high potential of hydrogeochemical tools in the Mediterranean mountainous context in many ways:

- By correlating, calibrating and validating some of the non-tracer-based methods with monthly tracer data for a Mediterranean use

- By using the validated non-tracer-based methods to perform continuous baseflow separation on a daily basis in order to assess baseflow seasonal patterns and trends over the last twenty years on both catchments

Thus, we clearly highlighted that baseflow, over the years, constitute the main contributor to river flow during dry periods (with a mean Baseflow Index up to 93% for both catchments) and still remains as an important part during high flow periods (with a mean contribution of 67% for the Tavignanu and 73% for the Fium’Altu basin). Therefore, we showed the importance of groundwater and delayed subsurface flow contributions to sustain river flow and its ecological continuity in a mountainous Mediterranean context. Geological features may explain differences in the Baseflow Index distribution between the two basins, implying that some components in the baseflow (groundwater or subsurface flow) are more or less present depending on the period considered. Our next steps consist in going further using environmental tracers to provide conceptual models describing all components of the hydrological cycle which contribute to baseflow. At the end, this will serve as indicators for stakeholders in order to perform sustainable management and to assess the resilience of water resources facing global climate change, not only in Corsica, but for any similar region.

How to cite: Guisiano, P.-A., Santoni, S., Huneau, F., Garel, É., and Mattei, A.: Importance of baseflow contribution in mountainous Mediterranean watersheds highlighted by geochemical and isotope tracers, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-6734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6734, 2023.

08:55–09:05
|
EGU23-7926
|
ECS
|
On-site presentation
kaoutar oukaddour, Younes Fakir, and Michel Le Page

The Tensift basin is prone to drought and, with the increasing frequency of extreme events, their forecasting and monitoring are becoming more complex. The present work aims to shed light on the interactions between meteorological and agricultural droughts while using multiple drought indices, and analyzing its temporal and spatial patterns over the Tensift basin in Morocco. To this purpose, we initially performed a trend analysis of the main parameters used in this study namely precipitation, temperature, NDVI, and soil moisture using the Mann-Kendall test. Moreover, a data-driven approach was adopted here to reveal the impact of lack of precipitation on the soil and vegetation cycles. Remote sensing data of precipitation from ERA5Land and soil moisture data from ESA-CCI as well as land surface temperature and NDVI from MODIS are used to calculate the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the vegetation condition index (VCI), the temperature condition index (TCI), and the soil moisture condition index (SMCI) for the period 2001–2021. A comparison analysis was conducted to test the performance and concordance of the indices. Then, to analyze the propagation of meteorological drought to the other components we conducted a cross-correlation study between drought indices.  The results reveal an upward trend of NDVI which is noticeable from the first decade (2009) and is attributed to the development of irrigated areas in this period. In contrast, the basin has shown a significant decline in monthly soil moisture for the period extending from 2001 to 2021, which could be explained by the way how soil moisture is retrieved in the ESA CCI product, and the trend in vegetation. On the other hand, the monthly precipitation and land surface temperature time series show no significant trend. The comparison between the indices showed moderate to low agreement. Correlations between TCI and SPI were eventually negative and significant at small time scales. A moderate correlation was observed between SPI1, SPI3, and TCI (0.45). The strongest correlations between SMCI and SPI were found at the 3 and 6-month time scales. Furthermore, the concordance between VCI and SPI is stronger at larger SPI time scales, the best correlation was observed between the indices VCI and SPI at 12 months with a correlation coefficient of 0.44. The correlations in the Tensift basin reflect spatial heterogeneities where some indices are more prevailing than others. Lag analysis results demonstrate valuable insights into the leading and preceding behavior of different variables regarding SPI. Relevant responses were identified at short, mid, and long-term influence of precipitation deficits on soil moisture, vegetation, and temperature. The results of this study highlight the interest in analyzing drought with different indices dedicated to each type of drought in order to improve early warning systems and risk management strategies for semi-arid areas.

How to cite: oukaddour, K., Fakir, Y., and Le Page, M.: Interactions between meteorological and agricultural droughts at different temporal and spatial scales, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7926, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7926, 2023.

09:05–09:15
|
EGU23-13882
|
Highlight
|
On-site presentation
Joris Eekhout and Joris de Vente

The Mediterranean Basin is classified as one of the hot-spots for climate change, where a significant decrease of precipitation and an increase of temperature are expected. This will most likely lead to a redistribution of water within Mediterranean catchments. However, the scale and magnitude and spatial differences of the impact of climate change on water security across the Mediterranean is still uncertain. Here we present the preliminary results of a systematic review on the impact of climate change on water security in the Mediterranean Basin. In this systematic review we focused on studies performed in the Mediterranean Basin that apply a hydrological model forced by climate model output and report changes in blue and/or green water, i.e. water stored in rivers and reservoirs (e.g. runoff or reservoir storage) and water stored in soils (e.g. groundwater recharge). The variables obtained from the studies include variables related to study area, climate and hydrological models, and model output. Our preliminary results show that the general tendency is a decrease of precipitation and an increase of temperature, which will cause a decrease of projected blue and green water. This will have serious consequences for the potential of irrigated agriculture, industry and household water use in the Mediterranean Basin, which heavily rely on the availability of blue water. But also for rainfed agriculture, where a decrease of green water may force farmers to abandon their land or transform to irrigated agriculture.

We acknowledge funding from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (AEI) (PID2019-109381RB-I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033).

How to cite: Eekhout, J. and de Vente, J.: The impacts of future climate change on water security in the Mediterranean Basin, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13882, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13882, 2023.

09:15–09:25
|
EGU23-15504
|
On-site presentation
Davide Bonaldo, Debora Bellafiore, Christian Ferrarin, Rossella Ferretti, Antonio Ricchi, Lorenzo Sangelantoni, and Maria Letizia Vitelletti

The Po valley (northern Italy) hosts important economic activities and contributes to a significant fraction of the national agricultural production. On its coastal region (the Po Delta) reclaimed agricultural lands coexist, largely below the mean sea level, with natural areas of outstanding environmental relevance. Besides affecting the socio-economic and ecological dynamics within its basin, the modulation of the hydrological regime of the Po river also plays a major role in controlling the oceanographic processes occurring in the northern Adriatic Sea, from coastal circulation to deep ventilation and thermohaline circulation at the Mediterranean scale. In this framework, the severe drought that affected large areas of Europe in Spring and Summer 2022 hit the Po river system with particular intensity, with heavy impacts on productive activities and extensive saltwater intrusion in the coastal areas.

By means of observed discharge records and precipitation data from reanalysis and climate models, this contribution presents an analysis of the 2022 drought event, investigating its exceptionality in the recent past climate and exploring its possible recurrence in future conditions. Ensemble projections of rainfall regimes on the Po River basin in two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) show that persistent negative rainfall anomalies like the one that characterised the 2022 event will unlikely become typical features of the future climate, but could remarkably increase their frequency. Furthermore, the impacts of these events will be magnified by rising temperatures, enhancing evapotranspiration rates in agriculture and water demand. Particularly in severe climate change scenarios, heavier and more frequent episodes of water shortage, combined with a rising sea level, are expected to intensify the pressure of saltwater intrusion in the coastal areas of the Po Delta, increasing the risk for environmental impoverishment and for loss of agricultural lands.

Besides investigating in a climate change perspective a recent severe event that struck an important economic and ecological region, the present contribution aims at stimulating the development of advanced climate change adaptation strategies in riverine, deltaic and estuarine systems, emphasizing the importance of an integrated source-to-sea approach to this process. 

How to cite: Bonaldo, D., Bellafiore, D., Ferrarin, C., Ferretti, R., Ricchi, A., Sangelantoni, L., and Vitelletti, M. L.: The summer 2022 drought in the Po valley (Italy): a glimpse of the future climate?, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15504, 2023.

09:25–09:35
|
EGU23-17188
|
On-site presentation
Hadri Abdessamad, Mohamed Elmehdi Saidi, El Mahdi El Khalki, Brahim Aachrine, Tarik Saouabe, and Abdeslam Ait Elmaki

This research aims at establishing an integrated modelling framework to assess the impact of climate change on water supply and demand across an arid area in the western Haouz plain in Morocco. Five General Circulation Models (GCM) are used to evaluate future water resources availability under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios). The projected crop water demand and irrigation water demand were analysed using Aquacrop software, taking into account the impact of climate change on both reference evapotranspiration and crop cycle lengths. The future water balance is simulated by means of Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) Tool, including several socioeconomic and land use scenarios under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results reveal an important decrease in net precipitation with an average of -36.2% and -50.5% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In terms of water balance, the “business as usual” scenario would lead to an increasing of unmet water demand of about +22% in the 2050 horizon and to an increased depletion of the water table that could reach 2m/year. Changing water management and use practices remains the only solution to ensure sustainable water use and deal with the projected water scarcity.

How to cite: Abdessamad, H., Elmehdi Saidi, M., El Khalki, E. M., Aachrine, B., Saouabe, T., and Ait Elmaki, A.: Water demand versus supply in a Mediterranean Arid Region : current and future challenges, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-17188, 2023.

09:35–09:45
|
EGU23-6360
|
ECS
|
Virtual presentation
Ana Calbet, Ana Andreu, Javier Aparicio, María José Polo, Pedro Torralbo, and Rafael PImentel

Mountain areas constitute the headwaters of river basins, biodiversity hot-spots, and have a high value as ecosystem resources provision zones. Within the context of climate change, their meteorological trends and projections of future climate scenarios show a high resource vulnerability, highlighting the need to reduce the uncertainty associated with the dynamics of ecological-hydrological-meteorological processes. In these semiarid regions, there is a generalised increase in temperature, especially in summer, a decrease in average annual precipitation with an increase in torrentiality, and a decrease in snow's frequency and persistence. These can change the vegetation's phenological cycle, behaviour, and distribution. In addition, the socio-economic activities linked to these rural Mediterranean systems would be affected.

 

This study aims to establish a bridge between the different sources of available ecological-hydrological-meteorological information  and the local information that the final user needs, defining eco-hydrological indicators. Our long-term goal is to improve the management and conservation of Mediterranean mountains in the framework of climate change adaptation. 

 

For this purpose, we carried out a spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation and temperature historical trends (1960-2022, with nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test) as basic eco-hydrological indicators in the pilot area of the Sierras Subbéticas Natural Park (1570 m.a.s.l.) a  representative Mediterranean Mountain Range (Southern, Spain). This analysis constitutes the basis for the definition of targeted eco-hydrological management indicators. Among the different management challenges identified (e.g., sustainable olive tree production, preservation of autochthonous forest formations, water availability in groundwater reservoirs), we focus on the conservation of natural holm oak forest. Therefore, we selected as a targeted eco-hydrological indicator the occurrence of extreme drought periods in spring (3-months SPI in June), which is considered a primary meteorological factor influencing leaf development.

 

The trends analysis’ results reflect a significant increase in average annual mean temperatures, especially in the central and lowest areas of the mountain range. Regarding annual precipitation, there is great variability between dry and wet years, with a decreasing trend (-0,821 mm/year) without statistical significance. In the same way, the selected eco-hydrological indicator shows a non statistically significant trend.  This index directly influences the maintenance and regeneration of the Natural Park forest masses, which are of particular interest for managing its ecosystem services. In addition, this indicator constitutes an example of how these specific indicators allow us to use climatic-hydrological data sources in a practical application, with the future goal of integrating meteorological forecasts into the pipeline.

Acknowledgment: This work has been funded by project MONADA - "Hydrometeorological trends in mountainous protected areas in Andalusia: examples of co-development of climatic services for strategies of adaptation to climatic change", with the economic collaboration of the European Funding for Rural Development (FEDER) and the Andalusian Office of Economic Transformation, Industry, Knowledge and Universities. R+D+i project 2020.

How to cite: Calbet, A., Andreu, A., Aparicio, J., Polo, M. J., Torralbo, P., and PImentel, R.: Trend analysis on eco-hydrological indicators as management tools in Mediterranean Environmental Protected Areas: The case study of Sierras Subbéticas Natural Park (Spain), EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-6360, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6360, 2023.

09:45–09:55
|
EGU23-14819
|
ECS
|
Virtual presentation
Nadia Ouaadi, Lionel Jarlan, Saïd Khabba, Michel Le Page, Adnane Chakir, Salah Er-Raki, and Pierre-Louis Frison

Estimating crop evapotranspiration (ETc) is of primary importance for irrigation management. The model commonly used for this purpose is the FAO-56 approach which consists of accurately estimating the basal crop coefficient Kcb. Historically, Kcb is derived from optical indices such as NDVI giving its sensitivity to vegetation cover fraction and to the Leaf Area Index. Nevertheless, optical data are disturbed by the presence of clouds. In this context, the objective of this work is to investigate the potential use of all-weather radar data as a substitute of NDVI to derive Kcb. The study is conducted over two winter wheat fields (Field 1 and Field 2) in Morocco, monitored during two agricultural seasons 2016-2017 and 2017-2018. Each field is equipped with an eddy covariance station allowing the estimation of ETc every 30 minutes. In addition, a weather station was installed over an alfalfa plot near the study fields. First, the backscattering coefficient and the interferometric coherence ( ρ at VV polarization) are derived from Sentinel-1 data with a 6-day revisit time and a spatial resolution of 10 m. Second, empirical relationships have between established between Kcb, on one hand, and the interferometric coherence and the polarization ratio, on the other hand and the results are also compared to the classical Kcb-NDVI (derived from Sentinel-2) method. The results show that good statistical metrics are obtained between Kcb and NDVI (R=0.77 and RMSE=0.14 for Field 1). Similar results are obtained also using ρ (R=0.76, RMSE=0.18). Finally, the Kcb is estimated from the calibrated relationships on one season and then used to estimate ETc. The results demonstrate reasonable estimates of ETc on Field 1 (R=0.70, RMSE=0.75 mm/day and bias=-0.18 mm/days) using Kcb-ρ. By contrast, a significant overestimations is highlighted both with  (bias=0.73 mm/day) and NDVI (bias=1.46 mm/day) over Field 2. Interestingly, the Kcb-ρ relationship is more consistent in the estimation of ETc when changing from one field to another. These outcomes open new perspectives for the estimation of ETc from radar data as a potential substitute of NDVI in case of persistent cloud cover.

How to cite: Ouaadi, N., Jarlan, L., Khabba, S., Le Page, M., Chakir, A., Er-Raki, S., and Frison, P.-L.: C-band Sentinel-1 data for estimating the basal crop coefficient and evapotranspiration of winter wheat , EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14819, 2023.

09:55–10:05
|
EGU23-15107
|
On-site presentation
Covariability of Hydrological Cycle Components over coastal regions in southern France
(withdrawn)
Fatima Jomaa, Olga Zolina, and Namendra Kumar Shahi
10:05–10:15
|
EGU23-16445
|
ECS
|
Virtual presentation
Adnane Chakir, Pierre-louis Frison, Said Khabba, ludovic Villard, Valerie Le-dantec, Nadia Ouaadi, Pascal Fanise, and Lionel Jarlan

In recent decades, climate change has led to a sharp increase in water demand. Particularly in agriculture, this has put a great strain on already scarce water resources, increased the need for irrigation water, and led to overuse of groundwater. Therefore, sustainable management of water resources while maintaining good agricultural yield by monitoring crop water status is necessary for sustainable and rational management of these resources, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. For this purpose, a detailed knowledge of the different processes describing the diurnal water cycle of plants in a large area is essential. However, micrometeorological or physiological experimental measurements and their partitioning are laborious to perform and not very representative of large areas.

In this regard, remote sensing is a particularly suitable tool for monitoring agricultural areas because of its global and repeated observation. Several studies have highlighted the sensitivity of radar data to vegetation water content especially over the rainforest with spatial scatterometers that observe differences between morning and evening acquisitions. On the other hand, in situ radar experiments with high temporal frequency have made it possible to analyze radar responses over tropical and boreal forests.

This study relates to a similar experiment conducted on an olive orchard located in the semi-arid Mediterranean region of Chichaoua in central Morocco. It allows the acquisition of in situ C-band radar measurements in crop fields, which are acquired continuously, from a tower-based radar system, with a time step of 15 minutes.

The temporal evolution of the interferometric coherence r is analyzed on different baselines Dt, ranging from 15 minutes to 30 days, for the main physiological stages of the olive tree. Four different two-month periods, from December 2020 to November 2022, are chosen as the main physiological stages based on field observations.

The obtained results of r, especially at 15-min min-steps, show a global behavior similar to that observed in tropical and boreal forests: high values (r ≈1) are observed during the night (weak wind, vegetation resting), then a decrease/increase during the day mainly anti-symetric to the wind cycle. As over boreal and tropical forest, a decrease in r is observed before the wind picks up, with is time coincident with sap flows and ETR variations, traducing its sensitivity to water plant content.

Results show that over olive orchard, the r diurnal cycle is less marked than over boreal and tropical forests, due to lower ETR rates and certainly due to a significant soil contribution over this less dense vegetation layer. Furthermore, r values decrease when temporal baselines increase, but values are still meaningful for Dt = 6 days (r = 0.3 compared to 0.6 for Dt = 15 min. for the summer period), available with Sentinel-1 missions.

The present study provides particularly interesting results confirming the sensitivity of C-band coherence to vegetation water status, especially in the early morning. Further work needs to be pursued to verify if we are able to detect the water stress of these plants in semi-arid areas such as Chichaoua through coherence.

How to cite: Chakir, A., Frison, P., Khabba, S., Villard, L., Le-dantec, V., Ouaadi, N., Fanise, P., and Jarlan, L.: Analysis of the radar temporal coherence at C band over an olive orchard in semi-arid region, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16445, 2023.

Posters on site: Mon, 24 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | Hall A

Chairpersons: Simon Gascoin, Yves Tramblay, María José Polo
A.20
|
EGU23-451
|
ECS
Arnau Sanz i Gil, Akbar Rahmati Ziveh, Hossein Abbasizadeh, Vishal Thakur, Martin Hanel, Petr Maca, Oldrich Rakovec, and Yannis Markonis

The Mediterranean has been characterized as a region of enhanced climatic variability. Transitions between dry and wet conditions have repeatedly occurred over the last millennium in various spatial and temporal scales. However, the frequency of these shifts is poorly assessed due to the low amount of paleoclimatic reconstructions and the substantial heterogeneity of the Mediterranean. Here, we examine how often Mediterranean regions have transitioned between different hydroclimatic regimes over the last millennium. For this purpose, we use the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation (PHYDA) simulation results to identify transitional changes based on Köppen-Geiger climate types. Our results indicate which regions are more likely to experience transitions between hydroclimatic regimes and their duration distribution. We also examine how the intensity of the shifts have fluctuated during the study period and quantify the uncertainties involved. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of the past hydroclimatic variability, which is crucial for further determining the current state and future aridification in the Mediterranean region.  

How to cite: Sanz i Gil, A., Rahmati Ziveh, A., Abbasizadeh, H., Thakur, V., Hanel, M., Maca, P., Rakovec, O., and Markonis, Y.: How often did Mediterranean regions transition to different hydroclimatic regimes in the last millennium?, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-451, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-451, 2023.

A.21
|
EGU23-3345
|
ECS
Badr-eddine Sebbar, Olivier Merlin, Saïd Khabba, Victor Pénot, Vincent Simonneaux, Marine Bouchet, and Abdelghani Chehbouni

Accurate evapotranspiration (ET) estimates in mountainous regions are needed for better understanding the hydrological cycle and managing water resources within watersheds. However, the complex topography of these areas can have significant effects on ET, making it challenging to monitor at all scales. In this study, we sought to improve the accuracy of thermal remote sensing-based ET estimates in the High Atlas region of Morocco by taking into account the effect of topography. To do this, we used two ET models, both driven by LANDSAT optical/thermal data: the Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB) model and the contextual Water Deficit Index (WDI) model. The meteorological data (such as air temperature, wind speed, and humidity) used to force the models were taken from ERA5-Land reanalysis products and specifically disaggregated at 30 meters to account for elevation effects, while the solar radiation data were obtained using the Samani et al. method to consider sun exposure effects. We compared the ET estimates produced by both models to measurements taken at two Eddy covariance towers in the mountains at different elevations (900 and 3850 m.a.s.l). Our results showed that the TSEB model was able to accurately estimate ET in the region, with a high level of consistency (r² = 0.72, rmse = 43 Wm-2). The relative performance of both TSEB and WDI models was assessed. We also found that topography significantly influences ET in the High Atlas Mountains, emphasizing the importance of considering it when estimating ET at the watershed scale. This outcome can be used to better understand the hydrological cycle and manage water resources in mountainous areas.

How to cite: Sebbar, B., Merlin, O., Khabba, S., Pénot, V., Simonneaux, V., Bouchet, M., and Chehbouni, A.: Evaluating the Impact of Topography on Satellite-Derived Evapotranspiration Estimates in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3345, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3345, 2023.

A.22
|
EGU23-17186
|
ECS
Evaluation of satellite precipitation products to runoff simulation in a semi-arid zone
(withdrawn)
El Mahdi El Khalki, Yves Tramblay, Mohamed Elmehdi Saidi, and Abdelghani Chehbouni
A.23
|
EGU23-6661
|
ECS
|
Arash Rahi, Mehdi Rahmati, Jacopo Dari, Carla saltalippi, and Renato Morbidelli

Global warming is affecting hydroclimatic parameters determining changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. In addition, human-induced activities act on the land use and land cover (LULC) features of catchments. Runoff generation can be affected by these factors in both natural and anthropogenic basins. The aim of the current study is to investigate the relationship between the runoff coefficient (Rc), computed by exploiting long-term rainfall and streamflow records, and several features that can potentially affect it, namely meteorological parameters, soil water storage (SWS), and LULC changes through the wavelet coherence analysis. The method has been applied over the Upper Tiber basin at Ponte Nuovo outlet, in central Italy. To facilitate the understanding of the current catchment conditions in terms of surface water availability, a trend analysis has been performed using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. For the long-term period of 1927-2020, the results reveal a decreasing trend of Rc. In addition, the MK test for seasonal temperature and SWS shows increasing and decreasing trends, respectively. Based on the wavelet analysis, a significant positive correlation is observed between Rc and SWS in the annual cycle with a phase shift of less than one month, while a strong negative correlation is observed between Rc and temperature in the annual period with a phase shift of 3-6 months. The study of the relationship between Rc and LULC changes shows a weak correlation. The lower phase shift between Rc and SWS indicate that Rc is susceptible to SWS in a faster way than other components. These results allows a better understanding of the main factors influencing the Rc over the pilot area; moreover, an extension to other Mediterranean basins is foreseen as a follow-up of this work.

How to cite: Rahi, A., Rahmati, M., Dari, J., saltalippi, C., and Morbidelli, R.: Assessment of factors controlling the runoff coefficient in the Mediterranean context: a case study in central Italy, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-6661, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6661, 2023.

A.24
|
EGU23-15981
Matia Menichini and Marco Doveri

The Versilia coastal plain hosts an important and strategic aquifer for water supply. Like all coastal aquifers, it is particularly vulnerable to the saltwater intrusion, which can be amplified not only by fresh water over-exploitation, but also by the effects of climate change, including the increase of extreme events that are deeply altering the hydrology of the Mediterranean regions. In order to protect this precious resource, both in quantitative and qualitative terms, an adequate knowledge of the aquifer system is necessary through the development of conceptual and mathematical hydrogeological models. Based on integrated multidisciplinary approach the conceptual hydrogeological model was defined using stratigraphic, hydrogeological and geochemical data elaboration. Subsequently, groundwater flow mathematical models were created using the ModFlow code and Groundwater Vistas like graphical interface. The models allowed to better understand this aquifer system and to identify and, where possible to quantify, the main processes and groundwater components involved. The most important feeding groundwater component, both in terms of water quantity and quality, is the fan of the Versilia River, mainly fed by the river itself in the foothill zone. Even if, in the summer season some piezometric depressions, tied to groundwater exploitation, tend to expand and move towards the coast, thus favouring the seawater intrusion process, in general, the Versilia fan component seems at present to be able to guarantee relative protection against marine ingression. However, this precarious balance could be disrupted by the extreme rainy events that frequently occur in the Apuan Alps region. The huge quantity of water that quickly flows by the river up to the sea during extreme events represents a lack of feeding respect to the aquifer, and consequently the mitigation role of the fan component towards seawater intrusion can be significantly weakened. Thanks to the water budget achieved by numerical model and considering real extreme events occurred in the Apuan-Versilian region it was possible to make considerations about possible effects of these climate regimes on the aquifer system. These extreme events as those occurred in the area in the past, and awaited more frequently in the future, represent a concrete threat for the coastal aquifer system that over next decades could suffer more and more seawater intrusion. Given the reliance of local human activities on groundwater, far-sighted actions of water management (e.g. managed aquifer recharge) are recommended for mitigating such as climate effects.

How to cite: Menichini, M. and Doveri, M.: Conceptual and numerical modelling of the Versilia coastal aquifer (NW-Tuscany, Italy) for quantitative evaluations on groundwater components and possible effects of climate extreme events, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15981, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15981, 2023.

Posters virtual: Mon, 24 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | vHall HS

Chairpersons: Said Khabba, María José Polo, Simon Gascoin
vHS.3
|
EGU23-6597
Michel Le Page, Thang Nguyen, Mehrez Zribi, Aaron Boone, Jacopo Dari, Sara Modanesi, Luca Zappa, Nadia Ouaadi, and Lionel Jarlan

The computation of the water budget of irrigated fields is generally difficult because of unknown irrigation amounts and timing. Automatic detection of irrigation events could greatly simplify the water balance of irrigated fields. The combination of high spatial resolution and high-frequency SAR (Sentinel-1) and optical satellite observations (Sentinel-2) makes the detection of irrigation events potentially feasible. Indeed, optical observation allows following the crop development while SAR observation can provide an estimation of the Surface Soil Moisture (SSM). However, uncertainties due to acquisition configuration or crop geometry and density might affect the retrieval of SSM. Here, an algorithm for irrigation events detection is assessed considering several aspects that could affect SSM retrieval (incidence angle, crop type, crop development) and specific characteristics of irrigation events (irrigation frequency, frequency of observations). Additionally, an alternative soil water budget model, the force-restore approach, is compared with the original bucket soil water budget algorithm. A European dataset of irrigation events collected during the ESA Irrigation+ project (5 sites in France, Germany, and Italy over three years) is used. The performances are analyzed in terms of the F‑score and the seasonal sum of irrigation. Overall, the analysis corroborated that the scores decrease with SSM observation frequency. The impact of the Sentinel-1 configuration (ascending/descending, close to 39°/far from 39°) on the retrieval results is low. The lower scores obtained with small NDVI compared to large NDVI were almost systematic, which is counter-intuitive, but might have been due to the larger number of irrigation events during high vegetation periods. The scores decreased as irrigation frequency increased, which was substantiated by the fact that the scores were better in France (more sprinkler irrigation) than in Germany (more localized irrigation). The strategy of merging different runs versus the strategy of interpolating all SSM data for one run has produced comparable results. The estimated cumulative sum of irrigation was around -20% lower compared to the reference dataset in the best cases. Finally, the replacement of the original SSM model by the Force-restore provided an improvement of about 6% on the F‑score, and also narrowed the error on cumulative seasonal irrigation. This study opens new perspectives for the advancement of irrigation retrieval at large scale based on SSM data sets through an in-depth analysis of results as a function of satellite configuration, irrigation techniques, and crops.

How to cite: Le Page, M., Nguyen, T., Zribi, M., Boone, A., Dari, J., Modanesi, S., Zappa, L., Ouaadi, N., and Jarlan, L.: Irrigation timing retrieval at the plot scale using Surface Soil Moisture derived from Sentinel time series in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-6597, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6597, 2023.

vHS.4
|
EGU23-7444
|
ECS
Myriam Benkirane, simon Gascoin, Abdelhakim Amazirh, Laura Sourp, Nour-Eddine Laftouhi, and Said Khabba

The present study aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological model to simulate spring runoff processes, analyze the effect of snowmelt on seasonal flow, and identify the snowmelt contribution rate based on the snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Moroccan High Atlas watersheds.

The main objective of this study is to evaluate the daily SWE in a poorly instrumented mountainous watershed using an improved hydrological model. The model algorithm improvement is considered an essential approach for better understanding the initial basin conditions that influence these hydrogeological behaviors. For this purpose, a seasonal analysis was performed to select flood events that reproduce this phenomenon.

To this end, the calibration has been done by forcing the model with rainfall, runoff, temperature, and snow water equivalent (SWE), with an amelioration of the model algorithm. Interestingly enough, this improvement achieved 13% based on the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients. Hence, the spring event flows were influenced by the snowmelt process, these results will have direct implications for flood event replication modeling and flood forecasting in these regions.

The study demonstrates that this region is sensitive to the seasonal effect of snowmelt. Therefore, it is essential to take into account the contribution of snow in hydrological studies developed at the level of the Moroccan High Atlas mountainous watersheds. This approach is a great challenge that will improve the reproduction of seasonal flood events and allow a better forecast of flood events to reduce the uncertainties and risks of flooding in mountainous basin areas facing the same climate conditions.

Keywords: Precipitation, SWE, Hydrological modeling, Calibration, Mediterranean climate, flood events, Zat basin.

How to cite: Benkirane, M., Gascoin, S., Amazirh, A., Sourp, L., Laftouhi, N.-E., and Khabba, S.: Hydrological modeling using an improved algorithm for a better evaluation of the snow water equivalent (SWE) during spring floods in the Moroccan High Atlas Mountains., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7444, 2023.

vHS.5
|
EGU23-7854
|
ECS
|
Aicha Moumni, Iman Abouseir, and Abderrahman Lahrouni

Nowadays, there is observable evidence from all continents and most oceans that many natural systems have been affected by regional climate changes, particularly by the increase in temperature. This increase has also influenced the phenology of plants. As the olive tree is a plant characterizing the Mediterranean area, it is obvious that its phenology could serve as an indicator of the impact of global warming on this area. In this study, we will use the PMP model and observations of the tree phenology to predict its flowering date, which is the most remarkable and easiest to observe development phase. On the other hand, we will study by simulation the impact of climate change on the flowering of the olive tree under the conditions of Haouz of Marrakech according to three contrasting scenarios of a possible climate change. The PMP software is a tool that facilitates the development of mechanistic phenological models. It is based on thermal time calculations. In the present work, we chose to test three thermal time models: the ForcTT model, the TT model and the UniForc unified forcing model. The first two models are two versions of Growing Degree Days (GDD) which corresponds to a linear relationship of forcing rate from the initial date t0 and a threshold temperature Tb. The third UniForc model is a sigmoidal function of temperature with the initial time t0 as an unknown. The tests were carried out using two databases, the first recorded in the meteorological stations of the Haouz region covering the period 1985 - 2012 and the second observed on the phenology of the olive tree in the Tassaout area for the periods 1986 - 1991 and 1997 - 2012. The first result obtained shows that the UniForc is the most robust model, it is therefore retained for the study of the impact of global warming on the olive tree.In the second part of this work we have chosen three scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios), which explore future development paths (demographic, economic and technological). Each of the three scenarios chosen is based on a degree of temperature increase according to the imagined development pathway: the more optimistic B1 scenario (increase of 1.1°C), the medium degree A1B scenario (increase of 2.8°C) and the more pessimistic A1F1 scenario (increase of 6.4°C). All the simulations carried out according to the chosen SRES scenarios confirm that the increase in temperature leads to the advancement (earliness) of the flowering date, this advancement varies between 0.3 and 27.3 days. The higher the temperature increase, the earlier the flowering date. Thus, the flowering date of the olive tree is univocally linked to the type of greenhouse gas emission scenario chosen. Our results therefore confirm that this agronomic variable is a good indicator of the severity of global warming that could occur in the region.

How to cite: Moumni, A., Abouseir, I., and Lahrouni, A.: Modeling the Impact of Global Warming on the Phenology of the Olive Tree in the Mediterranean region, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7854, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7854, 2023.

vHS.6
|
EGU23-8147
|
ECS
el houcine el moussaoui, Aicha Moumni, Said Khabba, and Abderrahmane Lahrouni

Although weather stations provide accurate measurements of ground climate conditions in close proximity to the station, they are expensive and require periodic recording of measurements. In addition, weather stations are therefore distributed sparsely, especially in developing countries. Conversely, satellites see entire landscapes and are therefore able to offer precise measurements at each location. This paper compares the performance of satellite products with weather station observations at three sites characterized by different climates Ounagha, Chichawa, and R3 in Morocco.

Precipitation and temperature data over the period of 2 years (2018 - 2019) at the three sites were collected. Data based on satellite imagery were collected for two satellite products, namely ERA5 and POWER over a similar period. The data were compared and analyzed through inferential statistics such as the root-mean-square error (RMSE), and the coefficient of determination (R2  ). The results showed that the temperature minimum daily simulated using the ERA5 satellite reached the highest coefficient of determination R2 = 0.92, with RMSE=1.34 (daily for Ounagha), R2 = 0.94, and with RMSE=1.27 (daily for Chichawa), R2 = 0.96, and with RMSE=1.13 (daily for R3). The temperature maximum daily simulated through the POWER satellite showed the best coefficient of determination R2 =0.924 with RMSE=2.174 (Ounagha daily). In contrast, the ERA5 satellite presents a better coefficient of determination R2 =0.97 in Chichawa and R3 stations. The results of comparing the observed weather stations and the satellite data in terms of precipitation show that the acceptable performance was attributed to the ERA5 data for cumulative, decadaire, and monthly precipitation in the three sites.


The use of satellite products is a good way to solve the lack of weather stations and to make data available to the scientific community for further investigation. Furthermore, since our interest in monitoring drought in the Smimou region and our need for climate data in this area, which lacks a meteorological station, the results of this study encourage us to use the ERA5 satellite to collect climate data for the region.

How to cite: el moussaoui, E. H., Moumni, A., Khabba, S., and Lahrouni, A.: Evaluation of two climate production satellites over the region of Marrakesh Safi Morocco, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-8147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8147, 2023.

vHS.7
|
EGU23-8268
|
ECS
Sofyan Sbahi, Laila Mandi, Tsugiyuki Masunaga, Naaila Ouazzani, Abdessamad Hejja, and Abderrahman Lahrouni

Due to its unique structure and excellent purification efficiency (e.g., 98% for organic matter and between 94 and 100% for nutrients), multi-soil-layering (MSL) has emerged as an efficient eco-friendly solution for wastewater treatment and environmental protection. Through infiltration-percolation, this soil-based technology allows pollutants to move from the MSL upper layers to the outlet while maintaining direct contact with its media, which helps in their removal via a variety of physical and biochemical mechanisms. This paper attempts to comprehensively evaluate the application of MSL technology and investigate its progress and efficacy since its emergence. Thus, it will attempt via a bibliometric analysis using the Web of Science database (from 1993 to 01/06/2022) related to MSL technology, to give a clear picture of the number of publications (70 studies), the most active academics, and countries (China with 27 studies), as well as collaborations and related topics. Furthermore, through hybrid combinations, pollutant removal processes, MSL effective media, and the key efficiency parameters, this paper review will seek to provide an overview of research that has developed and examined MSL since its inception. On the other hand, the current review will evaluate the modeling approaches used to explore MSL behavior in terms of pollutant removal and simulation of its performance (R2 > 90%). However, despite the increase in MSL publications in the past years (e.g., 13 studies in 2021), many studies are still needed to fill the knowledge gaps and urging challenges regarding this emerging technology. Thus, recommendations on improving the stability and sustainability of MSLs are highlighted.

How to cite: Sbahi, S., Mandi, L., Masunaga, T., Ouazzani, N., Hejja, A., and Lahrouni, A.: Multi-Soil-Layering, the Emerging Technology for Wastewater Treatment: Review, Bibliometric Analysis, and Future Directions, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-8268, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8268, 2023.

vHS.8
|
EGU23-11935
|
ECS
Lahoucine Ech-chatir, Salah Er-Raki, Abdelilah Meddich, Julio Cesar Rodriguez, and Said Khabba

Water scarcity is a major problem in the arid and semi-arid areas of Morocco, where irrigation is essential for agriculture. Crop growth models can enhance water use efficiency, thus providing an economic benefit while reducing pressure on water resources. In this study, we evaluated the modeling performance of the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model in estimating Evapotranspiration (ETa), Total soil water (TSW), Grain yield, Tops weight and phenological stages of winter wheat in the semi-arid region of Tensift Al Haouz, Marrakech. The simulation was performed at a daily time step during two successive growing seasons 2002/2003 and 2003/2004. The model calibration was done firstly on two fields and ETa, TSW phenological stages, and productive variables were calibrated after the comparison of the simulated and observed data. Afterward, the validation was performed on four fields during the two growing seasons. The results showed that the model simulates reasonably good Grain yield, Tops weight and phenological stages. Moreover, The average values of  RMSE  between observed and measured ETa, TSW, Grain yield and Tops weight were respectively, 0.70mm/day, 25mm, 0.6 t/ha and 2 t/ha for the validation fields. Statistical parameters like R2, d, and NRMSE were additionally used and showed that the model simulates acceptably the above-mentioned parameters. Furthermore, The Penman-Monteith FAO56 and Priestley and Taylor Evapotranspiration simulation methods were compared, the average values of d  and R2 were respectively 0.85, 0.70 for the Penman-Monteith method, and 0.80, 0.65 for the Priestley and Taylor method. Thus, the DSSAT model can be considered a useful tool for monitoring the management of wheat in arid and semi-arid regions.

Keywords: DSSAT, wheat, irrigation, water scarcity, crop model

How to cite: Ech-chatir, L., Er-Raki, S., Meddich, A., Rodriguez, J. C., and Khabba, S.: Performance assessment of the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model under different irrigation strategies in the semi-arid region of Marrakesh, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11935, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11935, 2023.

vHS.9
|
EGU23-12908
|
ECS
Nafia El-alaouy, Aicha Moumni, Nour-Eddine Laftouhi, and Abderrahman Lahrouni

Floods are the most visible and destructive hydrologic phenomenon in terms of human and economic loss. Typically, flash floods are caused by large amounts of runoff due to short duration and high-intensity rainfall. Floods also lead to environmental and social problems, such as damage to roads, farms, and infrastructures and sometimes pollute surface water resources via the transfer of industrial waste, creating many health problems. In late October 2016, a flash flood severely damaged the surroundings of the city of Laayoune in the Saquia El Hamra basin in southern Morocco. The country’s climate is arid and semi-arid and is prone to destructive floods. The purpose of this study is to evaluate this flash flood and monitor wetland areas after this event using a technique that relies on remote sensing technology. This work was accomplished using Sentinel 2 satellite images, from the European Space Agency, based on classification methods and change detection techniques. Before and after the occurrence, the SVM classifier was employed to map land cover and land use. The overall accuracy (Kappa coefficient) was 94.41 % (0.91), and 87.33 % (0.81), respectively for both dates, when compared to the ground-truth data. The decision tree was built with the maps produced by the SVM classification for both dates as inputs, producing a change detection map with increased detail. The remote sensing technology has enabled us to monitor the damage that has been done to the area following the catastrophe with details on the buildings affected, farms flooded, and the extent of the river.

How to cite: El-alaouy, N., Moumni, A., Laftouhi, N.-E., and Lahrouni, A.: Remote Sensing Monitoring of Flood hazard in Arid Environments. A Case Study of Saquia El Hamra Watershed Morocco, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-12908, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12908, 2023.