In rural areas of Africa most communities live in poverty and lack access to services such as electricity and clean cooking fuels, water supply that is safe for human use, sufficient and nutritious food, crop irrigation systems, and appliances and services that can foster income generation. Promoting sustainable development requires an integrated understanding and planning along such dimensions. In the context of the RE4AFAGRI (“Renewables for African Agriculture”) project of  LEAP-RE (Long-Term  Joint  Research  and  Innovation  Partnership  on  Renewable  Energy between  the European Union and the African Union), four models representing land-water-crop-food-energy requirements and dynamics (WaterCROP, M-LED, OnSSET and MESSAGE-NEST) are calibrated and soft-linked. The ultimate aim is to enable a multi-scale, multi-sectoral assessment and planning of technologies and policies that can promote integrated sustainable development in the region. Here we present preliminary results for a set of scenarios in the country-study of Zambia. Results can inform both public decision-makers and private companies engaging in those sectors. The approach and open-source modelling platform are readily scaled and adapted to other countries and regions.

How to cite: Falchetta, G., Awais, M., Byers, E., Giordano, V., Ireland, G., Semeria, F., Tuninetti, M., Vinca, A., and Zulu, A.: Soft-linking climate-land-water-energy assessment and planning models for sustainable development in rural Africa: preliminary results from the LEAP-RE RE4AFAGRI project, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2006, 2023.

Measures that aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions also have impacts on achieving other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Given the enormous challenge of achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement and the SDGs, insight into these impacts provides information on how to improve feasibility of climate change mitigation measures by maximizing the co-benefits and managing the risks of possible trade-offs across SDGs. In this paper, we explore the impact of twenty promising climate mitigation measures on achieving the other SDGs for eleven world regions. Using the IMAGE modelling framework, the paper explores the GHG emissions reduction potential of these measures aggregated by sector under three scenarios. Based on peer-reviewed articles, the impact of the measures on other SDGs is assessed for the top three sectors with the highest GHG reduction potential in each region. We conclude that the number of synergies between the selected climate change mitigation measures and other SDGs dwarf the number of trade-offs in all regions. The magnitude of these synergies and trade-offs, however, varies by regional and socio-economic context. In high- and middle-income regions, the mitigation measures show few trade-offs that are generally associated with technology choices that could aggravate inequality and impact biodiversity. In low-income regions, some measures, especially land-use related ones, could interfere with efforts to reduce poverty, end hunger and improve well-being, if not complemented by additional policies that aim to protect the poor from increasing food and energy prices.

How to cite: Dagnachew, A. and Hof, A.: Climate change mitigation and SDGs: modelling the regional potential of promising mitigation measures and assessing their impact on other SDGs, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7411, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7411, 2023.

Managing water resources in a sustainable way means, a fortiori in the context of increasingly visible climate change impacts, taking into account decisions made by other sectors having a significant effect on the availability and quality of water. Water quality and quantity are often affected by the energy sector on the one hand, and agriculture and food production on the other. Moreover, ecosystem requirements, such as minimum ecological flows or water quality, should always be considered. Thus, facing climate change impacts calls for increasing water-energy-food-ecosystems nexus considerations.

This being said, how can managers of these natural resources and stakeholders using them consider intersectoral coherence needs? Are these needs only theoretical or are they reflected by concrete actions in practice? Last but not least, how to assess the state of WEFE nexus governance in territories?

In order to address these questions, the present paper describes the methodological aspects of the WEFE nexus governance assessment tool (NXGAT) co-developed in the NEXOGENESIS project (H2020-funded). This tool assesses the state of the WEFE nexus governance in catchments. The goal of the NXGAT is to highlight what is actually supportive and what is actually restrictive to WEFE nexus governance.

The NXGAT is the first step in the WEFE nexus governance approach (Hüesker et al., 2022 ; Mooren et al., 2022) aiming at developing WEFE nexus policies. The NXGAT lays the foundation for cross-sectoral dialogue by both raising awareness and identifying solutions for more WEFE nexus governance.  The NXGAT assesses five dimensions (levels and scales; actors and networks; problem perspectives and goal ambitions; strategies and instruments; and responsibilities and resources) and five qualities (extent, coherence, flexibility, intensity of action, and fit) of the governance system. The tool is implemented in the Lielupe transboundary catchment (Lithuania-Latvia) by a team of transdisciplinary experts during face-to-face interviews. Interviewees are selected to cover the multi-scalar levels of all sectors.

The results of the implementation in the Lielupe transboundary catchment provide preliminary results on the efficiency of the method and the importance of the preparatory phases of the field investigation. The implementation of the NXGAT contributed to both underline blockages and leverages to urge for more intersectoral governance in this case study.

How to cite: La Jeunesse, I., Mooren, C. E., Munaretto, S., Hüesker, F., Cirelli, C., Canovas, I., Sievers, E., and Mounir, K.: Water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus governance: methodological aspects of the assessement of supportive and restrictive contexts, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3075, 2023.

In the context of climate change, European Member States are committed to developing policies and taking corresponding adaptation measures. In this direction, every two years, the European Environment Agency (EEA) publishes an extensive dataset related to climate policies and measures (PaMs) reported in Europe and generated by European research projects, with the aim of improving and disseminating the information covering all actions aimed at reducing GHG emissions. In this study, an inferential data analysis is conducted on the PaMs dataset, setting as the variable of interest the reported quantified GHG emissions savings of each PaM and inferring its variance through a set of related explanatory qualitative factors (i.e., type of measure, sector of policy, related entities, implementation period etc.) together with their higher-level interactions. This is achieved by employing a number of widely used statistical techniques for the analysis of multi-factor data, such as regression analysis, hypothesis testing, influence diagnostics and variable selection methods to (a) investigate the significance and effect of the factors in relation to GHG emissions and (b) model the relationships between the variables of interest. The resulting analysis aims to obtain practical insights from a retrospective view of a wide number of PaMs and generalize their response in a descriptive and explicable way. This will allow the interested parties to gain interpretable feedback from existing measures applied in practice and subsequently ‘feed back’ new knowledge on climate adaptation decision making.

This work is supported by IMPETUS research project that has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 101037084.

How to cite: Pelekanos, N., Nikolopoulos, D., Moraitis, G., and Makropoulos, C.: Bringing knowledge closer to practice: an inferential analysis of EU climate change policies and measures, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9994, 2023.

Nexus research is advancing from knowledge creation towards public awareness and inclusiveness for civil society, public-private partnerships, and knowledge partners. Nexus research was mainly focused on a better understanding of interlinkages between the relevant resources at stake (e.g., water, energy, food, and ecosystems), the focus is increasingly searching for building communities, training, and career development. 

Research on the WEFE nexus increasingly aims to create platforms building capacity among institutions, knowledge partners, and capacity development. Educational and learning programs are developed by hot spots of the nexus. Expanding transdisciplinary research methods could facilitate building a community and network of nexus professionals. Capacity development and awareness are also critical for the successful planning and implementation of nexus practices. Some successful examples of knowledge creation for inclusiveness are shared.  The presentation will identify some key enablers and measures to advance the nexus in practice. Nexus research benefits from advancing along this route.

How to cite: Brouwer, F.: Nexus research for sustainability and inclusiveness in practice, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4370, 2023.

How to cite: Awais, M., Vinca, A., Byers, E., Fricko, O., Frank, S., Krey, V., and Riahi, K.: Leveraging Integrated Assessment Models to access climate feedbacks on Water, Energy, and Land Systems: An Evaluation of Regional and Sectoral Transformations for Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals , EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16585, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16585, 2023.

Ethiopia’s energy demand is expected to increase sevenfold in the coming 30 years, resulting in increased variable renewable electricity (VRE) production by solar PV and wind. Energy storage acts as a buffer that mitigates the effects of over- or under-capacity in production by VRE. With 97% of global bulk energy storage, pumped hydro storage is the most widely used and mature energy storage technology. With its long operational life, high round-trip efficiency (80%) and stable cost trajectory, it is a competitive option for many VRE-rich (future) energy systems. However, barriers to pumped storage include heavy technical, site-specific restrictions, long construction times and high initial capital investment requirements.

This study investigates if Ethiopia’s energy pathways benefit from adding pumped hydro storage, suitable regions for PHS, and to what extent storage would increase system resilience. The long-term energy planning tool OSeMOSYS is used, which allows for detailed investigation into system dynamics whilst parallelly minimising costs. OSeMOSYS enabled the investigation into Ethiopia by looking at an extensive host of techno-economic specifications and supply and demand dynamics from the electrification of transport and integration of variable renewables to residential cooking demands.

This research studies thirteen scenarios which are separated into three main categories: Base Case (3), Emission Penalty (EMI) (6) and Varying Wind Capacity and Seasonality (WND) (6). The base case introduces pumped storage to the energy pathways, and the EMI scenario characterises three pathways for carbon pricing. In the WND scenario, wind power’s capacity factor and seasonality are altered to investigate the potential effects of using more accurate local data or prioritising some supply zones on the energy system configuration. Additionally, the most favourable locations for solar PV and wind are combined with potential PHS locations to find optimal sites for storage construction.

The results of the research show that pumped hydro storage is adopted into the energy system in all scenarios, following both a diurnal and seasonal (dis)charge pattern. Variable renewable integration increases by an average of 10% from the addition of storage (78 GWh). The emission penalty increases the electrification of residential cooking demand and boosts VRE penetration but does not integrate storage integration further than the base case due to reaching the upper limit of the storage capacity set in the planning experiments.

Pumped hydro storage was found to increase the resilience of the modelled energy systems to climate-driven seasonal uncertainties and prices due to fossil fuel and carbon price uncertainties by making them less dependent on fossil fuels, decreasing vulnerability for potential emission penalties, and seasonal capacity fluctuations. The introduction of PHS was also found not to increase overall system costs, making it, combined with the stable levelised cost of storage and high maturity, a prime candidate for large-scale energy storage in Ethiopia.

How to cite: de Vries, D., Ramsing Thakur, J., Martin, V., Annor, F., and Abraham, E.: Investigating the potential role of pumped hydro storage in the Ethiopian energy system transitions to 2050 using OSeMOSYS, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14318, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14318, 2023.

As many developed countries prepare their transition to net zero emissions energy systems, Africa must plan a substantial expansion of its energy production sources, to meet the growing demand driven by increasing population and energy access. Among the existing capacity expansion potential, hydropower plays an important role in providing clean and cheap electricity. Yet, large hydropower schemes bring many negative social, environmental, and geopolitical externalities.

Least-cost optimization models constrained to satisfying predefined energy demands are used for large-scale energy system planning. Multi-objective optimization models can also incorporate environmental impacts in energy system planning, for instance by constraining the optimal solutions on GHG emissions or geomorphologic connectivity losses. However, these traditional techno-economic approaches overlook governance considerations, which are relevant to energy security, especially in unstable and conflictual political contexts. In fact, concerns about political instability are ranked among the main investment risks for foreign investors in developing countries. The subject becomes even more significant in transboundary river basins, where institutional stability and the absence of conflicts are crucial for effectively building and operating large hydropower projects.

To assess the political risks associated with the hydropower sector, we examine six pathways of energy generation for the African continent, from 2020 to 2050, developed using the OSeMOSYS-TEMBA energy system model. The model considers more than 600 existing and future hydropower projects in all countries of continental Africa, including available information for each individual power plant. Moreover, it incorporates ISIMIP2b scenarios to integrate coherently final energy demands, land-use change, and climate impacts on water availability.

For each scenario considered, the political risk deriving from the associated electricity generation and exchange patterns is characterized at the country-level using six energy-related dimensions. The more vulnerable transboundary river basins are then selected by intersecting the countries with high energy-related political risk and regions with high hydro-political conflict based on existing literature. We use a worst-case perspective for these basins and assume that electricity generated from planned or existing hydropower projects would not be exchanged between co-riparian countries due to the lack of cooperation. Finally, the impacts on the energy system are re-evaluated for the resulting cost-optimal energy system reconfiguration, and the difference with the fully connected solution is assessed.

Our results show that integrating political stability in energy system planning can produce precise spatial information about potential risks. Indeed, the lack of cooperation in transboundary river basins affected by high political instability can emphasize pre-existing vulnerabilities. Since this issue severely influences decisions related to energy planning on a continental scale, energy analysts can improve energy security using these results to design capacity expansion robust to political shocks.

How to cite: Bonserio, T., Carlino, A., Giuliani, M., and Castelletti, A.: Political instability influence on hydropower planning in Africa: a continental scale analysis, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16319, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16319, 2023.

The design of strategic investments in water, energy and food (WEF) infrastructures is challenging because the size, location, technology mix and pace of development is made uncertain by multiple factors. For example, the return on investment, which comes long after building a hydropower dam, is made uncertain by local, regional and global climate and socio-economic factors. This is exacerbated by the challenges associated with the impacts of climate change, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where it is difficult to model these impacts, hence leading to high levels of uncertainty in future scenarios (2050 and beyond).

Long-term investment planning and system operations for energy, depend on and compete with other sectors for, the availability of water (for hydropower and cooling thermal plants) and land resources (e.g. for biofuel production and arability). The efficient exploitation of land, energy and water resources and their synergised use for economic development therefore require an multidimensional integrated optimisation approach co-created with stakeholders in dialogue. This starts with planning followed by prioritised investments based on local, national and regional needs in the energy, agricultural and water sectors. This is mostly lacking in SSA at the moment. We gathered a selected group of experts in Accra, Ghana in November 2022 with a broad mix of experiences and expertise in the energy, water and agricultural sectors, who shared deeper insights and values of the need for integrated WEF planning to begin tackling challenges and opportunities identified in the Volta Basin in West Africa (starting with Ghana) and the Tana basin in Kenya. The main challenge identified was the disjointed planning of WEF infrastructures due to different financing mechanisms and siloed sectoral thinking; and participants raised emerging opportunities for planning infrastructure through transnational and regional cooperation  as well as the need to build on existing and new initiatives devoid of entrenched political goals.

In this contribution, we will present some of the main findings from the meeting in Accra and share knowledge on how transparent WEF modelling can be contextualised for local operational relevance, and through co-creation, how interactive engagement tools can be used for planning, policy- and decision-making.

Keywords: WEF modelling, sub-Saharan Africa, WEF Infrastructures, Investment Planning, Optimisation

The work leading to these results has received funding from the European Horizon Europe Programme (2021-2027) under grant agreement No.101083763 (EPIC Africa). The opinions expressed in the document are of the authors only and in no way reflect the European Commission’s opinions. The European Union is not liable for any use that may be made of the information.

How to cite: Annor, F. O., Martin, V., Ofosu, E. A., Lucendo, C. G., Akuku, B., Fofana, R., van de Giesen, N., and Abraham, E.: Opportunities and Challenges in the Efficient Exploiting of Land, Energy and Water Resources within the Volta and Tana Basins in Africa, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13219, 2023.

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges of recent times, with worldwide economic, societal, and environmental impacts. In response to these challenges, the European Union (EU) proposed the EU Green Deal which sets a blueprint that commits on transforming the EU into the first climate neutral continent by 2050. To this end, innovative solutions for climate-change adaptation and mitigation measures must be implemented in regional and local scales. The H2020 Green Deal project IMPETUS aims to develop and validate a coherent multi-scale, multi-level, cross-sectoral adaptation framework for climate change, paving the way towards a climate-neutral and sustainable future. This will be achieved by building on resilience knowledge and by co-designing together with local communities and stakeholders, innovative packages of methodological, technical, governance and financial solutions. Two such solutions developed within the project are a) the strategic resilience and multi-hazard management tool for identifying dynamic climate adaptation pathways and b) the climate change hot-spot identification and prioritization tool. Through a co-creation approach, stakeholders identify region-specific indicators and metrics of interest that describe climate risk exposure, vulnerability, and adaptation capacity. The hot-spot analysis based on these metrics utilizes collections of spatiotemporal datasets, including future climate scenarios and projections, that describe key parameters from the human and climate dimensions, able to identify hot-spots associated with different climatic and socioeconomic futures. The hot-spot explorer tool is an EU-wide web service and can be used as a screening tool for policymakers to prioritize regions for development of regional adaptations pathways, using the dynamic adaptation pathways tool. A regionally suitable pallet of intervention measures is identified from stakeholder engagement. The pallet is stress-tested for assessing regional climate resilience, under a multitude of different future scenarios, with the objective to generate pathways of progressive implementations of intervention packages that improve the specified indicators and metrics. Some of the intervention options are also operationalized in pilot case studies within the project, such as the employment of sewer mining units in the wastewater system of East Attica for water reuse. The pathways are dynamic and adaptative to changing future conditions, as there are a) key monitored parameters for a region with alarms associated to decision points involving intervention measure implementations, and b) a contingency response module that supports stakeholders to select interventions from different pathways. These tools engage policymakers and stakeholders in order to identify climate change hot-spots within EU, prioritize them, identify suitable intervention measures, and analyze their regions to generate strategic plans for adaptation pathways towards the common climate resilience goal.

Acknowledgement

This work is supported by IMPETUS research project, which received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement  No. 101037084.

How to cite: Nikolopoulos, D., Spartalis, I., Pantazis, C., Pelekanos, N., Moraitis, G., Monokrousou, K., and Makropoulos, C.: Towards climate resilience: paving dynamic adaptation pathways for regional climate change hot-spots, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7541, 2023.

Climate change poses major challenges globally and is likely to exacerbate competition for water, land, and energy resources. In the Main River Basin (Germany), this will have considerable consequences for agriculture, forestry, water, and energy management. At present, most adaptation measures are sector-focused, but the challenges are interconnected. The region is at risk for being pushed beyond its resilience threshold and therefore, a holistic and multi-sectoral strategy is urgently needed to achieve a new level of responsiveness to cope with climate change impacts.

The co-design and co-production of science-driven technical, social, and cross-sectoral innovations and governance is required to build new and climate resilient transformation pathways. A systemic transformation of the region requires time and broad societal support, which must be considered when formulating development paths. To address these challenges, Systems Innovation Approach (SIA) is implemented. This method aims at going beyond the immediate problems to better understand the underlying patterns, and how we can learn and adapt as the system continues to change. The Main River basin is one of the nine pilot areas of the EU funded ARSINOE project (Climate-resilient regions through systemic solutions and innovation) that are implementing innovative technological approaches. Stakeholders’ engagement is ensured through the so-called Living Labs. In the ARSINOE project, Living Labs are a participatory research tool often used in planning, product design and innovation which brings together a collective of key stakeholders to explore a focal issue. Living Labs act as open innovation spaces which foster co-creation with users and the focus is to better solve stakeholder needs.

Through a series of workshops supported by SIA tools (mental mapping of interconnected challenges, future common vision using Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as guiding principles, backcasting) we have created an open atmosphere with committed participants that are willing to collaborate to tackle future climate challenges in the Main River region. This contribution presents our successful experience turning research into practice, lessons learnt and challenges we faced to ensure the participants’ engagement.

The presented study is supported by the project ARSINOE (GA: 101037424), funded under EU’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme.

How to cite: Pérez Ciria, T., Wood, R., Zilker, M., Braun, G., and Ludwig, R.: Systems Innovation Approach: stakeholders’ involvement for a climate resilient region, a Living Lab at the Main River basin, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5826, 2023.

Crop-water simulation models are powerful tools to support efficient and sustainable agricultural water use and management globally. However, uptake of these tools beyond the research community in policy and industry has traditionally been constrained by the complexity and closed-source nature of model codes, which limit ability for models to be adapted and applied to address complex real-world agricultural water management challenges. In this talk, we present AquaPlan, an interactive web-based tool crop management tool that enables farmers, businesses, and governments to make more informed decisions about water management, irrigation investments, and climate risks. AquaPlan combines a state-of-the-art open-source crop-water model, AquaCrop-OSPy, with global weather and soil datasets to enable users to conduct rapid on-the-fly assessments of field and regional-scale crop yield and water demands anywhere in the world. The tools also integrates future climate projections from CMIP6 models, providing insights to support efforts to enhance long-term resilience of agriculture and food supply chains to climate change. In this talk, we will present a range of use cases of AquaPlan, highlight how these kinds of interactive tools can strengthen uptake of models developed by researchers in water management policy, practice, and business.

How to cite: Foster, T., Kelly, T., Avery, R., and Berger, K.: AquaPlan: Bridging the gap between research and practice in crop-water modeling, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16116, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16116, 2023.

A large part of the current research on flood damage costs build on a similar methodological framework across studies that integrates climate data (hazard), flood modelling (exposure), damage cost assessments (impact) and calculate risks as the product of the likelihood of events and their consequences. A key question here is how relevant such a methodological framework is in relation to the perspectives of decision makers on establishing safe standards for investments in climate change adaptation in the context of the large uncertainties surrounding both estimates of the extreme event probability and on the damages of these. Particular issues that are often raised by decision makers are related to how extreme precipitation and storm surge levels could be, and on how well the damages of such events are represented in damage estimates recognizing the limitations of monetary evaluations as well as risk preferences of decision makers.

The paper is addressing how the gap between conventional approaches applied to hazard and impact modelling and the needs and practice of decision makers can be diminished based on the experiences with the development and application of a detailed object based spatial DamageCost Model for storm surges. The model has been widely applied by Danish local governments as a basis for developing adaptation plans. Soon after the first version of the model was released, local Danish governments took over leading the model development from a user perspective in a close ongoing dialogue with DTU and the engineering consultants LNH Water, which through several projects, including the EU ARSINOE project continue to support further technical development and model use.

Experiences from how the model development have been inspired by decision maker perspectives gained through model use are reported based on case studies for the Danish cities of Esbjerg, Odense, and Aabenraa.

How to cite: Drews, M., Halsnæs, K., Skougaard Kaspersen, P., and Ankjær Nielsen, B.: Experiences from storm surge flood damage modelling driven by local decision makers, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-12902, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12902, 2023.

Future water security in Palestine is challenged by the compound effect of water scarcity, operational inefficiencies in water supply infrastructure, and the unstable geo-political setting. Among these factors, water losses represent a major challenge to the environmental sustainability and financial stability of water resources management in the area. The Palestinian Water Authority estimated the amount of non-revenue water (NRW) in the Gaza Strip to approximately 35.7 million cubic meters in 2018. This is equivalent to a direct loss of 37.6% of the total water supplied, further indirectly implying inefficient use of water-related energy and resources to treat and distribute water.

Water loss reduction and more sustainable water supply are key priorities in Khan Younis, the second most populated city in the Gaza Strip. Water supply and sanitation services in Khan Younis are managed by the Khan Younis Municipality (KYM). The KYM water distribution system is currently operated with an intermittent water supply scheme based on empirical and expert-based knowledge. The water loss rate in Khan Younis is rather uncertain and different estimates exist. However, the average water consumption from data provided by KYM in early 2021 was estimated to 74.7 liters per capita per day (lcd), which resides in the range recommended by the World Health Organization to meet the basic water needs, while the daily amount of water supplied via the distribution network was on average 99.5 lcd, indicating a NRW rate of approximately 25%.

In this work, we discuss lessons learned from the ongoing EU funded project “Gaza H2.0: Innovation and water efficiency” which aims at promoting efficient and sustainable water supply and demand, along with knowledge transfer to enhance resilience against water scarcity in the Gaza Strip. First, we analyse the gaps between research and practice which emerged in the project while updating the hydraulic model of the KYM water distribution. A rich body of literature highlights that building and calibrating a hydraulic model of a water distribution network is not a straightforward task that depends greatly on available data, calibration techniques, and modeler’s expertise. This was proven true for building the KYM water distribution network model, as an up-to-date inventory of network components was not available and only limited historical data were recorded. Thus, an extensive surveying campaign was run in 2021 via the installation of 51 pressure sensors logging data with a 1-min frequency throughout the 27 distribution zones in the network. As a result, sufficient measurement data was recorded to perform an initial calibration of the hydraulic model. However, some components of the network remain ungauged. We will thus discuss lesson learned and propose recommendations to enhance hydraulic model calibration for KYM and similar networks. Second, we will describe and discuss the strategies planned and invoked during the Gaza H2.0 project to foster knowledge transfer to and increase involvement from all stakeholders. These actions aim to guarantee the long-term sustainability of the technological solutions proposed in the project, such that they can serve as a starting point to address future climate and infrastructure challenges.    

How to cite: Cominola, A., Daniel, I., Tilcher, D., Alasmar, A. J. S., Ziara, R. M. M., and Pedron, G.: Enhancing the resilience of intermittent water supply systems in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip. Knowledge transfer and lessons learned from the Gaza H2.0 project, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13100, 2023.

Due to the land degradation, the land use conflicts have intensified, and there is an increasing necessity to adapt sustainable land management. Sustainable land management deals with the demands for land in terms of not only human society but also the nature conservation and biodiversity. To persue and realize sustainable land management, the indicators and evaluation system are necessary, and ecosystem services has emerged as the proper indicator for sustainable land management. This study focused on the balance between the demand and supply of ecosystem services. If the balance between them was maintained or supply exceeded demand, the land can be assessed to be managed sustainably. In this study, CO₂ sequestration, Heat mitigation, and water provision were assessed as ecosystem service in South Korea. The supply of each ecosystem service was evaluated by using related models which had been developed and used widely in previous studies. The demand of each ecosystem service was defined based on specific figures which had already suggested as policy goals in South Kroea in purpose of drawing social consensus. Afterwards, the ecosystem services supply and demand ratio (ESDR) were calculated to show the balance between supply and demand quantified by region. As a result, the exessive demand for CO2 sequestration service was found compared to supply. The supply of heat mitigation service was found to be sufficient for the demand nationwide. However, in specific areas such as cities, the demand was higher than the supply. In the case of water provision service, the national demand was being met by some regional suppliers. Through these results, it is possible to find out the ecosystem services that need to be supplemented spatially and regionally, and ultimately, it is expected to support the establishment of urban space, green space, and environmental planning at the regional and national levels.

How to cite: Kim, J., Hong, M., Choi, S.-E., Song, C., Lim, C.-H., Choi, Y. E., and Lee, W.-K.: Supply and demand assessment and mismatch analysis of ecosystem services to support sustainable land management, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11101, 2023.

Land degradation and desertification are considered major threats for the present and future of Mediterranean arid and semiarid agro-ecosystems (Daliakopoulos et al., 2017). Long-term anthropogenic pressure on forest and agricultural lands, combined with abiotic factors and the global trend of accelerated dryer climate and dryland expansion, create an uncertain and unstable living environment which has been demonstrated to increase poverty and force domestic and even cross-border migration. While our understanding and the flow of information about these threats is unprecedented, challenges persist and uptake of good practices by stakeholders is hindered by constraints and barriers both biophysical and socioeconomic (Daliakopoulos, 2022). For example, in one of the pioneer institutional initiatives aiming to enhance long-term forest resources and combat soil erosion and desertification by promoting forestry as an alternative form of land use, the Agricultural Land Afforestation (ALA) Program (Regulation 2080/92) introduced compensations for the income loss incurred during the non-productive period of afforested agricultural land. However, awareness about the Program by landowners, and the overall effectiveness of afforestation both in forestation success and in reducing soil erosion remains uncertain (Arabatzis et al., 2006; Nunes et al., 2011). In this context, the premise of the REACT4MED Project is that massive and effective land restoration actions need not only to make sense from an environmental point of view, but to also be socially acceptable, economically viable (Daliakopoulos & Keesstra, 2020), and have measurable impact, thus combining good practices with organic and inclusive transformation of all social actors. Here we present an overview of the effectiveness of the former ALA in the REACT4MED Pilot Area of Heraklion and outlines the supporting actions, both top down and bottom up, planned during the REACT4MED Project to increase the effectiveness of the forthcoming ALA Program by combining good practices with organic and inclusive transformation of all social actors.

References

Arabatzis, G., Christopoulou, O., & Soutsas, K. (2006). The EEC Regulation 2080/92 about forest measures in agriculture. International Journal of Ecodynamics, 1(3), 245–257. https://doi.org/10.2495/ECO-V1-N3-245-257

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Acknowledgements

This work has received funding from REACT4MED: Inclusive Outscaling of Agro-Ecosystem Restoration Actions for the Mediterranean. The REACT4MED Project (grant agreement 2122) is funded by PRIMA, a program supported by Horizon 2020.

How to cite: Daliakopoulos, I., Christoforidi, I., Louloudakis, I., Papadimitriou, D., and Manios, T.: Inclusive Outscaling of the Agricultural Land Afforestation Agro-ecosystem REstoration ACTions in Heraklion, Greece, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17268, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-17268, 2023.

Food security is a key issue in sustainability studies. In this work, a general framework for providing detailed probabilistic socioeconomic scenarios as well as predictions concerning food security is proposed. Our methodology builds (a) on the Bayesian probabilistic version of world population prediction model and (b) on the dependencies of food needs and food system capacities on key drivers, such as population, gross domestic product (GDP) and other socioeconomic and climate indicators. In this perspective, the concept of the recently developed convex risk measures involving model uncertainty is employed for the construction of a risk assessment framework in the context of food security. The proposed method provides within and across the various probabilistic scenarios predictions and evaluations for food security risk. Our methodology is illustrated by studying food security and quantifying the occurring risk in Egypt and Ethiopia up to the year 2050, in the combined context of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).

How to cite: Papayiannis, G., Koundouri, P., Vassilopoulos, A., and Yannacopoulos, A.: On building a general framework for assessing food security risk under probabilistic socioeconomic scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-12376, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12376, 2023.