HS5.7 | Multi-scale water-energy-food-environment (WEFE) nexus planning: from research to practice in managing socio-economic, climatic, and technological change
EDI

The Water, Energy, Food, and Environment (WEFE) components of the Nexus are in rapid transition, driven by forces such as socioeconomic, demographic, climatic, and technological changes as well as policies intended to meet Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and other societal priorities. These dynamics weave across spatial scales, connecting global markets and trends to regional and sub-regional economies. At the same time, resources are often locally managed under varying administrative jurisdictions closely tied to inherent characteristics of each commodity such as river basins for water, grid regions for electricity and land-use boundaries for agriculture. Local decisions, in turn, are critical in deciding the success and consequences of national and global policies, as well as their impact. Thus, there is a growing need to better characterise the Nexus to guide robust and consistent multi-scale decision-making under a changing climate. One of the hardest challenges in science is turning research into practice, having a concrete impact on policies and operations, and engaging stakeholders in a way that they truly adopt the proposed solutions.

This session aims to address these challenges at different scales (local to regional) in nascent infrastructure planning and sectoral transitions, with a large focus on solutions generated by European research projects and other international experiences. Contributions can include work dealing with applications of existing nexus approaches in sustainability assessment, climate-resilient and adaptive nexus management, and design of future developments, as well as new methods and nature-based solutions that address existing gaps related to incorporating processes at different scales, bridging data gaps, improving optimisation approaches, or dealing with transboundary issues and Nexus governance. Success cases of impactful research on local, national, and/or international policies and decisions are also welcome.

Co-organized by ERE1
Convener: Edo Abraham | Co-conveners: Elena MattaECSECS, Zarrar KhanECSECS, Chrysi Laspidou, Yue Qin, Aitor Corchero Rodriguez, Edward A. Byers
Orals
| Wed, 26 Apr, 14:00–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room 3.29/30
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 27 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Hall A
Posters virtual
| Attendance Thu, 27 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
vHall HS
Orals |
Wed, 14:00
Thu, 16:15
Thu, 16:15

Orals: Wed, 26 Apr | Room 3.29/30

Chairpersons: Edo Abraham, Zarrar Khan, Yue Qin
14:00–14:05
14:05–14:15
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EGU23-2006
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HS5.7
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Giacomo Falchetta, Muhammad Awais, Edward Byers, Vittorio Giordano, Gregory Ireland, Francesco Semeria, Marta Tuninetti, Adriano Vinca, and Ackim Zulu

In rural areas of Africa most communities live in poverty and lack access to services such as electricity and clean cooking fuels, water supply that is safe for human use, sufficient and nutritious food, crop irrigation systems, and appliances and services that can foster income generation. Promoting sustainable development requires an integrated understanding and planning along such dimensions. In the context of the RE4AFAGRI (“Renewables for African Agriculture”) project of  LEAP-RE (Long-Term  Joint  Research  and  Innovation  Partnership  on  Renewable  Energy between  the European Union and the African Union), four models representing land-water-crop-food-energy requirements and dynamics (WaterCROP, M-LED, OnSSET and MESSAGE-NEST) are calibrated and soft-linked. The ultimate aim is to enable a multi-scale, multi-sectoral assessment and planning of technologies and policies that can promote integrated sustainable development in the region. Here we present preliminary results for a set of scenarios in the country-study of Zambia. Results can inform both public decision-makers and private companies engaging in those sectors. The approach and open-source modelling platform are readily scaled and adapted to other countries and regions.

How to cite: Falchetta, G., Awais, M., Byers, E., Giordano, V., Ireland, G., Semeria, F., Tuninetti, M., Vinca, A., and Zulu, A.: Soft-linking climate-land-water-energy assessment and planning models for sustainable development in rural Africa: preliminary results from the LEAP-RE RE4AFAGRI project, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2006, 2023.

14:15–14:25
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EGU23-7411
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HS5.7
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Anteneh Dagnachew and Andries Hof

Measures that aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions also have impacts on achieving other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Given the enormous challenge of achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement and the SDGs, insight into these impacts provides information on how to improve feasibility of climate change mitigation measures by maximizing the co-benefits and managing the risks of possible trade-offs across SDGs. In this paper, we explore the impact of twenty promising climate mitigation measures on achieving the other SDGs for eleven world regions. Using the IMAGE modelling framework, the paper explores the GHG emissions reduction potential of these measures aggregated by sector under three scenarios. Based on peer-reviewed articles, the impact of the measures on other SDGs is assessed for the top three sectors with the highest GHG reduction potential in each region. We conclude that the number of synergies between the selected climate change mitigation measures and other SDGs dwarf the number of trade-offs in all regions. The magnitude of these synergies and trade-offs, however, varies by regional and socio-economic context. In high- and middle-income regions, the mitigation measures show few trade-offs that are generally associated with technology choices that could aggravate inequality and impact biodiversity. In low-income regions, some measures, especially land-use related ones, could interfere with efforts to reduce poverty, end hunger and improve well-being, if not complemented by additional policies that aim to protect the poor from increasing food and energy prices.

How to cite: Dagnachew, A. and Hof, A.: Climate change mitigation and SDGs: modelling the regional potential of promising mitigation measures and assessing their impact on other SDGs, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7411, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7411, 2023.

14:25–14:35
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EGU23-3075
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HS5.7
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On-site presentation
Isabelle La Jeunesse, Caro E. Mooren, Stefania Munaretto, Frank Hüesker, Claudia Cirelli, Ingrid Canovas, Eva Sievers, and Kaoutar Mounir

Managing water resources in a sustainable way means, a fortiori in the context of increasingly visible climate change impacts, taking into account decisions made by other sectors having a significant effect on the availability and quality of water. Water quality and quantity are often affected by the energy sector on the one hand, and agriculture and food production on the other. Moreover, ecosystem requirements, such as minimum ecological flows or water quality, should always be considered. Thus, facing climate change impacts calls for increasing water-energy-food-ecosystems nexus considerations.

This being said, how can managers of these natural resources and stakeholders using them consider intersectoral coherence needs? Are these needs only theoretical or are they reflected by concrete actions in practice? Last but not least, how to assess the state of WEFE nexus governance in territories?

In order to address these questions, the present paper describes the methodological aspects of the WEFE nexus governance assessment tool (NXGAT) co-developed in the NEXOGENESIS project (H2020-funded). This tool assesses the state of the WEFE nexus governance in catchments. The goal of the NXGAT is to highlight what is actually supportive and what is actually restrictive to WEFE nexus governance.

The NXGAT is the first step in the WEFE nexus governance approach (Hüesker et al., 2022 ; Mooren et al., 2022) aiming at developing WEFE nexus policies. The NXGAT lays the foundation for cross-sectoral dialogue by both raising awareness and identifying solutions for more WEFE nexus governance.  The NXGAT assesses five dimensions (levels and scales; actors and networks; problem perspectives and goal ambitions; strategies and instruments; and responsibilities and resources) and five qualities (extent, coherence, flexibility, intensity of action, and fit) of the governance system. The tool is implemented in the Lielupe transboundary catchment (Lithuania-Latvia) by a team of transdisciplinary experts during face-to-face interviews. Interviewees are selected to cover the multi-scalar levels of all sectors.

The results of the implementation in the Lielupe transboundary catchment provide preliminary results on the efficiency of the method and the importance of the preparatory phases of the field investigation. The implementation of the NXGAT contributed to both underline blockages and leverages to urge for more intersectoral governance in this case study.

How to cite: La Jeunesse, I., Mooren, C. E., Munaretto, S., Hüesker, F., Cirelli, C., Canovas, I., Sievers, E., and Mounir, K.: Water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus governance: methodological aspects of the assessement of supportive and restrictive contexts, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3075, 2023.

14:35–14:45
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EGU23-9994
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HS5.7
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Nikos Pelekanos, Dionysios Nikolopoulos, Georgios Moraitis, and Christos Makropoulos

In the context of climate change, European Member States are committed to developing policies and taking corresponding adaptation measures. In this direction, every two years, the European Environment Agency (EEA) publishes an extensive dataset related to climate policies and measures (PaMs) reported in Europe and generated by European research projects, with the aim of improving and disseminating the information covering all actions aimed at reducing GHG emissions. In this study, an inferential data analysis is conducted on the PaMs dataset, setting as the variable of interest the reported quantified GHG emissions savings of each PaM and inferring its variance through a set of related explanatory qualitative factors (i.e., type of measure, sector of policy, related entities, implementation period etc.) together with their higher-level interactions. This is achieved by employing a number of widely used statistical techniques for the analysis of multi-factor data, such as regression analysis, hypothesis testing, influence diagnostics and variable selection methods to (a) investigate the significance and effect of the factors in relation to GHG emissions and (b) model the relationships between the variables of interest. The resulting analysis aims to obtain practical insights from a retrospective view of a wide number of PaMs and generalize their response in a descriptive and explicable way. This will allow the interested parties to gain interpretable feedback from existing measures applied in practice and subsequently ‘feed back’ new knowledge on climate adaptation decision making.

This work is supported by IMPETUS research project that has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 101037084.

How to cite: Pelekanos, N., Nikolopoulos, D., Moraitis, G., and Makropoulos, C.: Bringing knowledge closer to practice: an inferential analysis of EU climate change policies and measures, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9994, 2023.

14:45–14:55
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EGU23-4370
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HS5.7
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Virtual presentation
Floor Brouwer

Nexus research is advancing from knowledge creation towards public awareness and inclusiveness for civil society, public-private partnerships, and knowledge partners. Nexus research was mainly focused on a better understanding of interlinkages between the relevant resources at stake (e.g., water, energy, food, and ecosystems), the focus is increasingly searching for building communities, training, and career development. 

Research on the WEFE nexus increasingly aims to create platforms building capacity among institutions, knowledge partners, and capacity development. Educational and learning programs are developed by hot spots of the nexus. Expanding transdisciplinary research methods could facilitate building a community and network of nexus professionals. Capacity development and awareness are also critical for the successful planning and implementation of nexus practices. Some successful examples of knowledge creation for inclusiveness are shared.  The presentation will identify some key enablers and measures to advance the nexus in practice. Nexus research benefits from advancing along this route.

 

How to cite: Brouwer, F.: Nexus research for sustainability and inclusiveness in practice, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4370, 2023.

14:55–15:05
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EGU23-16585
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HS5.7
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Muhammad Awais, Adriano Vinca, Edward Byers, Oliver Fricko, Stefan Frank, Volker Krey, and Keywan Riahi

This research investigates the interconnections between water, energy, and land systems in the context of a long-term assessment of transition paths to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It highlights the importance of integrated methods and addresses the complexity, interdependence, and uncertainty of climate change's impacts on natural systems and technology in the water, energy, and land sectors. The research utilizes two Integrated Assessment Models (MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM and IMAGE) to assess the long-term resources, supply, and demand of these sectors, together with the regional and sectoral reforms required to achieve the SDGs. It demonstrates how various locations and sectors would be affected by climate feedback under various climate mitigation scenarios. 

The study concludes that changes in water availability, that influence agriculture, water and sanitation access, hydropower potential, and power plant cooling technologies, constitute the largest proportion of climate impacts and the prime source of uncertainty. Furthermore, scenario analysis is used to understand the relationship between the SDGs and climate impacts in the absence of climate policies. The findings demonstrate that considerable progress towards the trajectories of the nexus SDGs resulted in strong synergies and interactions across the energy-water and land nexus components, irrespective of climate factors. Additionally, the study demonstrates that ambitious and healthy dietary modifications and a reduction in food waste can result in a decrease in global food demand, irrigation withdrawals, and emissions. Changes in the land sector can reduce overall SDG policy costs and energy and water expenditures, while strengthening the needs of the poor. Improving wastewater treatment and establishing more efficient water management technologies has socioeconomic and environmental advantages and can alleviate stress on freshwater withdrawals in locations that are water stressed. 

The study also shows that some regions, such as the Middle East and South Asia, are more vulnerable to climate impacts on the water sector and may require more extensive investments in water efficiency. In addition, it stresses that supplying households with electricity and clean cooking services can stimulate energy demand in emerging economies, but widespread adoption would require an increase in household incomes, notably in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Overall, the study highlights the importance of exploring the effects of climate change on natural and technological systems in the water, energy, and land sectors, as well as the relevance of implementing a coordinated strategy to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. It also demonstrates the inter - dependencies and potentials of various sectors to achieve the SDGs while addressing the challenges they face because of climate change. 

How to cite: Awais, M., Vinca, A., Byers, E., Fricko, O., Frank, S., Krey, V., and Riahi, K.: Leveraging Integrated Assessment Models to access climate feedbacks on Water, Energy, and Land Systems: An Evaluation of Regional and Sectoral Transformations for Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals , EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16585, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16585, 2023.

15:05–15:15
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EGU23-14318
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HS5.7
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ECS
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On-site presentation
David de Vries, Jagruti Ramsing Thakur, Viktoria Martin, Frank Annor, and Edo Abraham

Ethiopia’s energy demand is expected to increase sevenfold in the coming 30 years, resulting in increased variable renewable electricity (VRE) production by solar PV and wind. Energy storage acts as a buffer that mitigates the effects of over- or under-capacity in production by VRE. With 97% of global bulk energy storage, pumped hydro storage is the most widely used and mature energy storage technology. With its long operational life, high round-trip efficiency (80%) and stable cost trajectory, it is a competitive option for many VRE-rich (future) energy systems. However, barriers to pumped storage include heavy technical, site-specific restrictions, long construction times and high initial capital investment requirements.

This study investigates if Ethiopia’s energy pathways benefit from adding pumped hydro storage, suitable regions for PHS, and to what extent storage would increase system resilience. The long-term energy planning tool OSeMOSYS is used, which allows for detailed investigation into system dynamics whilst parallelly minimising costs. OSeMOSYS enabled the investigation into Ethiopia by looking at an extensive host of techno-economic specifications and supply and demand dynamics from the electrification of transport and integration of variable renewables to residential cooking demands.

This research studies thirteen scenarios which are separated into three main categories: Base Case (3), Emission Penalty (EMI) (6) and Varying Wind Capacity and Seasonality (WND) (6). The base case introduces pumped storage to the energy pathways, and the EMI scenario characterises three pathways for carbon pricing. In the WND scenario, wind power’s capacity factor and seasonality are altered to investigate the potential effects of using more accurate local data or prioritising some supply zones on the energy system configuration. Additionally, the most favourable locations for solar PV and wind are combined with potential PHS locations to find optimal sites for storage construction.

The results of the research show that pumped hydro storage is adopted into the energy system in all scenarios, following both a diurnal and seasonal (dis)charge pattern. Variable renewable integration increases by an average of 10% from the addition of storage (78 GWh). The emission penalty increases the electrification of residential cooking demand and boosts VRE penetration but does not integrate storage integration further than the base case due to reaching the upper limit of the storage capacity set in the planning experiments.

Pumped hydro storage was found to increase the resilience of the modelled energy systems to climate-driven seasonal uncertainties and prices due to fossil fuel and carbon price uncertainties by making them less dependent on fossil fuels, decreasing vulnerability for potential emission penalties, and seasonal capacity fluctuations. The introduction of PHS was also found not to increase overall system costs, making it, combined with the stable levelised cost of storage and high maturity, a prime candidate for large-scale energy storage in Ethiopia.

How to cite: de Vries, D., Ramsing Thakur, J., Martin, V., Annor, F., and Abraham, E.: Investigating the potential role of pumped hydro storage in the Ethiopian energy system transitions to 2050 using OSeMOSYS, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14318, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14318, 2023.

15:15–15:25
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EGU23-16319
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HS5.7
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ECS
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Teresa Bonserio, Angelo Carlino, Matteo Giuliani, and Andrea Castelletti

As many developed countries prepare their transition to net zero emissions energy systems, Africa must plan a substantial expansion of its energy production sources, to meet the growing demand driven by increasing population and energy access. Among the existing capacity expansion potential, hydropower plays an important role in providing clean and cheap electricity. Yet, large hydropower schemes bring many negative social, environmental, and geopolitical externalities.

Least-cost optimization models constrained to satisfying predefined energy demands are used for large-scale energy system planning. Multi-objective optimization models can also incorporate environmental impacts in energy system planning, for instance by constraining the optimal solutions on GHG emissions or geomorphologic connectivity losses. However, these traditional techno-economic approaches overlook governance considerations, which are relevant to energy security, especially in unstable and conflictual political contexts. In fact, concerns about political instability are ranked among the main investment risks for foreign investors in developing countries. The subject becomes even more significant in transboundary river basins, where institutional stability and the absence of conflicts are crucial for effectively building and operating large hydropower projects.

To assess the political risks associated with the hydropower sector, we examine six pathways of energy generation for the African continent, from 2020 to 2050, developed using the OSeMOSYS-TEMBA energy system model. The model considers more than 600 existing and future hydropower projects in all countries of continental Africa, including available information for each individual power plant. Moreover, it incorporates ISIMIP2b scenarios to integrate coherently final energy demands, land-use change, and climate impacts on water availability.

For each scenario considered, the political risk deriving from the associated electricity generation and exchange patterns is characterized at the country-level using six energy-related dimensions. The more vulnerable transboundary river basins are then selected by intersecting the countries with high energy-related political risk and regions with high hydro-political conflict based on existing literature. We use a worst-case perspective for these basins and assume that electricity generated from planned or existing hydropower projects would not be exchanged between co-riparian countries due to the lack of cooperation. Finally, the impacts on the energy system are re-evaluated for the resulting cost-optimal energy system reconfiguration, and the difference with the fully connected solution is assessed.

Our results show that integrating political stability in energy system planning can produce precise spatial information about potential risks. Indeed, the lack of cooperation in transboundary river basins affected by high political instability can emphasize pre-existing vulnerabilities. Since this issue severely influences decisions related to energy planning on a continental scale, energy analysts can improve energy security using these results to design capacity expansion robust to political shocks.

How to cite: Bonserio, T., Carlino, A., Giuliani, M., and Castelletti, A.: Political instability influence on hydropower planning in Africa: a continental scale analysis, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16319, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16319, 2023.

15:25–15:35
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EGU23-13219
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HS5.7
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On-site presentation
Frank Ohene Annor, Viktoria Martin, Eric Antwi Ofosu, Carlos Guerrero Lucendo, Boniface Akuku, Rafatou Fofana, Nick van de Giesen, and Edo Abraham

The design of strategic investments in water, energy and food (WEF) infrastructures is challenging because the size, location, technology mix and pace of development is made uncertain by multiple factors. For example, the return on investment, which comes long after building a hydropower dam, is made uncertain by local, regional and global climate and socio-economic factors. This is exacerbated by the challenges associated with the impacts of climate change, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where it is difficult to model these impacts, hence leading to high levels of uncertainty in future scenarios (2050 and beyond).

Long-term investment planning and system operations for energy, depend on and compete with other sectors for, the availability of water (for hydropower and cooling thermal plants) and land resources (e.g. for biofuel production and arability). The efficient exploitation of land, energy and water resources and their synergised use for economic development therefore require an multidimensional integrated optimisation approach co-created with stakeholders in dialogue. This starts with planning followed by prioritised investments based on local, national and regional needs in the energy, agricultural and water sectors. This is mostly lacking in SSA at the moment. We gathered a selected group of experts in Accra, Ghana in November 2022 with a broad mix of experiences and expertise in the energy, water and agricultural sectors, who shared deeper insights and values of the need for integrated WEF planning to begin tackling challenges and opportunities identified in the Volta Basin in West Africa (starting with Ghana) and the Tana basin in Kenya. The main challenge identified was the disjointed planning of WEF infrastructures due to different financing mechanisms and siloed sectoral thinking; and participants raised emerging opportunities for planning infrastructure through transnational and regional cooperation  as well as the need to build on existing and new initiatives devoid of entrenched political goals.

In this contribution, we will present some of the main findings from the meeting in Accra and share knowledge on how transparent WEF modelling can be contextualised for local operational relevance, and through co-creation, how interactive engagement tools can be used for planning, policy- and decision-making.

Keywords: WEF modelling, sub-Saharan Africa, WEF Infrastructures, Investment Planning, Optimisation

The work leading to these results has received funding from the European Horizon Europe Programme (2021-2027) under grant agreement No.101083763 (EPIC Africa). The opinions expressed in the document are of the authors only and in no way reflect the European Commission’s opinions. The European Union is not liable for any use that may be made of the information.

How to cite: Annor, F. O., Martin, V., Ofosu, E. A., Lucendo, C. G., Akuku, B., Fofana, R., van de Giesen, N., and Abraham, E.: Opportunities and Challenges in the Efficient Exploiting of Land, Energy and Water Resources within the Volta and Tana Basins in Africa, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13219, 2023.

15:35–15:45
Coffee break
Chairpersons: Chrysi Laspidou, Adriano Vinca, Zarrar Khan
16:15–16:20
16:20–16:30
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EGU23-7541
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HS5.7
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Dionysios Nikolopoulos, Iosif Spartalis, Christodoulos Pantazis, Nikos Pelekanos, Georgios Moraitis, Klio Monokrousou, and Christos Makropoulos

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges of recent times, with worldwide economic, societal, and environmental impacts. In response to these challenges, the European Union (EU) proposed the EU Green Deal which sets a blueprint that commits on transforming the EU into the first climate neutral continent by 2050. To this end, innovative solutions for climate-change adaptation and mitigation measures must be implemented in regional and local scales. The H2020 Green Deal project IMPETUS aims to develop and validate a coherent multi-scale, multi-level, cross-sectoral adaptation framework for climate change, paving the way towards a climate-neutral and sustainable future. This will be achieved by building on resilience knowledge and by co-designing together with local communities and stakeholders, innovative packages of methodological, technical, governance and financial solutions. Two such solutions developed within the project are a) the strategic resilience and multi-hazard management tool for identifying dynamic climate adaptation pathways and b) the climate change hot-spot identification and prioritization tool. Through a co-creation approach, stakeholders identify region-specific indicators and metrics of interest that describe climate risk exposure, vulnerability, and adaptation capacity. The hot-spot analysis based on these metrics utilizes collections of spatiotemporal datasets, including future climate scenarios and projections, that describe key parameters from the human and climate dimensions, able to identify hot-spots associated with different climatic and socioeconomic futures. The hot-spot explorer tool is an EU-wide web service and can be used as a screening tool for policymakers to prioritize regions for development of regional adaptations pathways, using the dynamic adaptation pathways tool. A regionally suitable pallet of intervention measures is identified from stakeholder engagement. The pallet is stress-tested for assessing regional climate resilience, under a multitude of different future scenarios, with the objective to generate pathways of progressive implementations of intervention packages that improve the specified indicators and metrics. Some of the intervention options are also operationalized in pilot case studies within the project, such as the employment of sewer mining units in the wastewater system of East Attica for water reuse. The pathways are dynamic and adaptative to changing future conditions, as there are a) key monitored parameters for a region with alarms associated to decision points involving intervention measure implementations, and b) a contingency response module that supports stakeholders to select interventions from different pathways. These tools engage policymakers and stakeholders in order to identify climate change hot-spots within EU, prioritize them, identify suitable intervention measures, and analyze their regions to generate strategic plans for adaptation pathways towards the common climate resilience goal.

Acknowledgement

This work is supported by IMPETUS research project, which received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement  No. 101037084.

How to cite: Nikolopoulos, D., Spartalis, I., Pantazis, C., Pelekanos, N., Moraitis, G., Monokrousou, K., and Makropoulos, C.: Towards climate resilience: paving dynamic adaptation pathways for regional climate change hot-spots, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7541, 2023.

16:30–16:40
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EGU23-5826
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HS5.7
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Teresa Pérez Ciria, Raul Wood, Marion Zilker, Gunnar Braun, and Ralf Ludwig

Climate change poses major challenges globally and is likely to exacerbate competition for water, land, and energy resources. In the Main River Basin (Germany), this will have considerable consequences for agriculture, forestry, water, and energy management. At present, most adaptation measures are sector-focused, but the challenges are interconnected. The region is at risk for being pushed beyond its resilience threshold and therefore, a holistic and multi-sectoral strategy is urgently needed to achieve a new level of responsiveness to cope with climate change impacts.

The co-design and co-production of science-driven technical, social, and cross-sectoral innovations and governance is required to build new and climate resilient transformation pathways. A systemic transformation of the region requires time and broad societal support, which must be considered when formulating development paths. To address these challenges, Systems Innovation Approach (SIA) is implemented. This method aims at going beyond the immediate problems to better understand the underlying patterns, and how we can learn and adapt as the system continues to change. The Main River basin is one of the nine pilot areas of the EU funded ARSINOE project (Climate-resilient regions through systemic solutions and innovation) that are implementing innovative technological approaches. Stakeholders’ engagement is ensured through the so-called Living Labs. In the ARSINOE project, Living Labs are a participatory research tool often used in planning, product design and innovation which brings together a collective of key stakeholders to explore a focal issue. Living Labs act as open innovation spaces which foster co-creation with users and the focus is to better solve stakeholder needs.

Through a series of workshops supported by SIA tools (mental mapping of interconnected challenges, future common vision using Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as guiding principles, backcasting) we have created an open atmosphere with committed participants that are willing to collaborate to tackle future climate challenges in the Main River region. This contribution presents our successful experience turning research into practice, lessons learnt and challenges we faced to ensure the participants’ engagement.

The presented study is supported by the project ARSINOE (GA: 101037424), funded under EU’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme.

How to cite: Pérez Ciria, T., Wood, R., Zilker, M., Braun, G., and Ludwig, R.: Systems Innovation Approach: stakeholders’ involvement for a climate resilient region, a Living Lab at the Main River basin, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5826, 2023.

16:40–16:50
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EGU23-16116
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HS5.7
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Virtual presentation
Timothy Foster, Thomas Kelly, Ryan Avery, and Kathryn Berger

Crop-water simulation models are powerful tools to support efficient and sustainable agricultural water use and management globally. However, uptake of these tools beyond the research community in policy and industry has traditionally been constrained by the complexity and closed-source nature of model codes, which limit ability for models to be adapted and applied to address complex real-world agricultural water management challenges. In this talk, we present AquaPlan, an interactive web-based tool crop management tool that enables farmers, businesses, and governments to make more informed decisions about water management, irrigation investments, and climate risks. AquaPlan combines a state-of-the-art open-source crop-water model, AquaCrop-OSPy, with global weather and soil datasets to enable users to conduct rapid on-the-fly assessments of field and regional-scale crop yield and water demands anywhere in the world. The tools also integrates future climate projections from CMIP6 models, providing insights to support efforts to enhance long-term resilience of agriculture and food supply chains to climate change. In this talk, we will present a range of use cases of AquaPlan, highlight how these kinds of interactive tools can strengthen uptake of models developed by researchers in water management policy, practice, and business.

How to cite: Foster, T., Kelly, T., Avery, R., and Berger, K.: AquaPlan: Bridging the gap between research and practice in crop-water modeling, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16116, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16116, 2023.

16:50–17:00
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EGU23-12902
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HS5.7
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On-site presentation
Martin Drews, Kirsten Halsnæs, Per Skougaard Kaspersen, and Bodil Ankjær Nielsen

A large part of the current research on flood damage costs build on a similar methodological framework across studies that integrates climate data (hazard), flood modelling (exposure), damage cost assessments (impact) and calculate risks as the product of the likelihood of events and their consequences. A key question here is how relevant such a methodological framework is in relation to the perspectives of decision makers on establishing safe standards for investments in climate change adaptation in the context of the large uncertainties surrounding both estimates of the extreme event probability and on the damages of these. Particular issues that are often raised by decision makers are related to how extreme precipitation and storm surge levels could be, and on how well the damages of such events are represented in damage estimates recognizing the limitations of monetary evaluations as well as risk preferences of decision makers.

The paper is addressing how the gap between conventional approaches applied to hazard and impact modelling and the needs and practice of decision makers can be diminished based on the experiences with the development and application of a detailed object based spatial DamageCost Model for storm surges. The model has been widely applied by Danish local governments as a basis for developing adaptation plans. Soon after the first version of the model was released, local Danish governments took over leading the model development from a user perspective in a close ongoing dialogue with DTU and the engineering consultants LNH Water, which through several projects, including the EU ARSINOE project continue to support further technical development and model use.

Experiences from how the model development have been inspired by decision maker perspectives gained through model use are reported based on case studies for the Danish cities of Esbjerg, Odense, and Aabenraa.

How to cite: Drews, M., Halsnæs, K., Skougaard Kaspersen, P., and Ankjær Nielsen, B.: Experiences from storm surge flood damage modelling driven by local decision makers, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-12902, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12902, 2023.

17:00–17:10
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EGU23-13100
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HS5.7
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Andrea Cominola, Ivo Daniel, David Tilcher, Ahmed J. S. Alasmar, Rami M. M. Ziara, and Giovanni Pedron

Future water security in Palestine is challenged by the compound effect of water scarcity, operational inefficiencies in water supply infrastructure, and the unstable geo-political setting. Among these factors, water losses represent a major challenge to the environmental sustainability and financial stability of water resources management in the area. The Palestinian Water Authority estimated the amount of non-revenue water (NRW) in the Gaza Strip to approximately 35.7 million cubic meters in 2018. This is equivalent to a direct loss of 37.6% of the total water supplied, further indirectly implying inefficient use of water-related energy and resources to treat and distribute water.

Water loss reduction and more sustainable water supply are key priorities in Khan Younis, the second most populated city in the Gaza Strip. Water supply and sanitation services in Khan Younis are managed by the Khan Younis Municipality (KYM). The KYM water distribution system is currently operated with an intermittent water supply scheme based on empirical and expert-based knowledge. The water loss rate in Khan Younis is rather uncertain and different estimates exist. However, the average water consumption from data provided by KYM in early 2021 was estimated to 74.7 liters per capita per day (lcd), which resides in the range recommended by the World Health Organization to meet the basic water needs, while the daily amount of water supplied via the distribution network was on average 99.5 lcd, indicating a NRW rate of approximately 25%.

In this work, we discuss lessons learned from the ongoing EU funded project “Gaza H2.0: Innovation and water efficiency” which aims at promoting efficient and sustainable water supply and demand, along with knowledge transfer to enhance resilience against water scarcity in the Gaza Strip. First, we analyse the gaps between research and practice which emerged in the project while updating the hydraulic model of the KYM water distribution. A rich body of literature highlights that building and calibrating a hydraulic model of a water distribution network is not a straightforward task that depends greatly on available data, calibration techniques, and modeler’s expertise. This was proven true for building the KYM water distribution network model, as an up-to-date inventory of network components was not available and only limited historical data were recorded. Thus, an extensive surveying campaign was run in 2021 via the installation of 51 pressure sensors logging data with a 1-min frequency throughout the 27 distribution zones in the network. As a result, sufficient measurement data was recorded to perform an initial calibration of the hydraulic model. However, some components of the network remain ungauged. We will thus discuss lesson learned and propose recommendations to enhance hydraulic model calibration for KYM and similar networks. Second, we will describe and discuss the strategies planned and invoked during the Gaza H2.0 project to foster knowledge transfer to and increase involvement from all stakeholders. These actions aim to guarantee the long-term sustainability of the technological solutions proposed in the project, such that they can serve as a starting point to address future climate and infrastructure challenges.    

How to cite: Cominola, A., Daniel, I., Tilcher, D., Alasmar, A. J. S., Ziara, R. M. M., and Pedron, G.: Enhancing the resilience of intermittent water supply systems in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip. Knowledge transfer and lessons learned from the Gaza H2.0 project, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13100, 2023.

17:10–17:20
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EGU23-12105
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HS5.7
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On-site presentation
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Dimitrios Bouziotas, Dionysios Nikolopoulos, Panagiotis Dimas, Jos Frijns, and Christos Makropoulos

Contrary to the ‘make-use-dispose’ linearity seen in conventional resource management, circular economy design principles have been proposed as an  alternative that reduces waste and promotes efficiency. These principles find use in water as well, offering an alternative against centralized water systems planning and management. Despite the intrinsic links between circularity and resilience, few studies have advanced the identification and discussion of linkage beyond a theoretical or conceptual level. Moreover, few studies have estimated resilience with a probabilistic approach to include the inherent future uncertainty located simultaneously at source and demand level. In this study, a probabilistic framework to assess resilience for regional systems across multiple domains (drinking water, wastewater and drainage) is presented. The framework is based on stress-testing using an urban water cycle model, paired with reliability-based Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) that describe system resilience for each domain and for several different stress-testing factors (stressors). For its practical implementation, the framework is then applied to the provincial case study of Delfland, the Netherlands, where different circular water strategies are evaluated in terms of their overall resilience, (a.) firstly deterministically to explore the impact of individual stressors, and (b.) probabilistically to evaluate system performance against future uncertainty. The results quantitatively demonstrate that circular water options lead to water systems of increased resilience. The more circular dimensions are addressed through interventions and management strategies, the more robust resilience profiles become across different urban water cycle domains, thus securing regional water systems against future uncertainty.

How to cite: Bouziotas, D., Nikolopoulos, D., Dimas, P., Frijns, J., and Makropoulos, C.: A probabilistic framework to assess resilience in regional water systems - exploring the impact of circular water strategies, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-12105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12105, 2023.

17:20–17:30
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EGU23-11101
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HS5.7
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Jiwon Kim, Mina Hong, Sol-E Choi, Cholho Song, Chul-Hee Lim, Yun Eui Choi, and Woo-Kyun Lee

Due to the land degradation, the land use conflicts have intensified, and there is an increasing necessity to adapt sustainable land management. Sustainable land management deals with the demands for land in terms of not only human society but also the nature conservation and biodiversity. To persue and realize sustainable land management, the indicators and evaluation system are necessary, and ecosystem services has emerged as the proper indicator for sustainable land management. This study focused on the balance between the demand and supply of ecosystem services. If the balance between them was maintained or supply exceeded demand, the land can be assessed to be managed sustainably. In this study, CO2 sequestration, Heat mitigation, and water provision were assessed as ecosystem service in South Korea. The supply of each ecosystem service was evaluated by using related models which had been developed and used widely in previous studies. The demand of each ecosystem service was defined based on specific figures which had already suggested as policy goals in South Kroea in purpose of drawing social consensus. Afterwards, the ecosystem services supply and demand ratio (ESDR) were calculated to show the balance between supply and demand quantified by region. As a result, the exessive demand for CO2 sequestration service was found compared to supply. The supply of heat mitigation service was found to be sufficient for the demand nationwide. However, in specific areas such as cities, the demand was higher than the supply. In the case of water provision service, the national demand was being met by some regional suppliers. Through these results, it is possible to find out the ecosystem services that need to be supplemented spatially and regionally, and ultimately, it is expected to support the establishment of urban space, green space, and environmental planning at the regional and national levels.

How to cite: Kim, J., Hong, M., Choi, S.-E., Song, C., Lim, C.-H., Choi, Y. E., and Lee, W.-K.: Supply and demand assessment and mismatch analysis of ecosystem services to support sustainable land management, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11101, 2023.

17:30–17:40
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EGU23-17268
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HS5.7
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On-site presentation
Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Irene Christoforidi, Ioannis Louloudakis, Dimitrios Papadimitriou, and Thrassyvoulos Manios

Land degradation and desertification are considered major threats for the present and future of Mediterranean arid and semiarid agro-ecosystems (Daliakopoulos et al., 2017). Long-term anthropogenic pressure on forest and agricultural lands, combined with abiotic factors and the global trend of accelerated dryer climate and dryland expansion, create an uncertain and unstable living environment which has been demonstrated to increase poverty and force domestic and even cross-border migration. While our understanding and the flow of information about these threats is unprecedented, challenges persist and uptake of good practices by stakeholders is hindered by constraints and barriers both biophysical and socioeconomic (Daliakopoulos, 2022). For example, in one of the pioneer institutional initiatives aiming to enhance long-term forest resources and combat soil erosion and desertification by promoting forestry as an alternative form of land use, the Agricultural Land Afforestation (ALA) Program (Regulation 2080/92) introduced compensations for the income loss incurred during the non-productive period of afforested agricultural land. However, awareness about the Program by landowners, and the overall effectiveness of afforestation both in forestation success and in reducing soil erosion remains uncertain (Arabatzis et al., 2006; Nunes et al., 2011). In this context, the premise of the REACT4MED Project is that massive and effective land restoration actions need not only to make sense from an environmental point of view, but to also be socially acceptable, economically viable (Daliakopoulos & Keesstra, 2020), and have measurable impact, thus combining good practices with organic and inclusive transformation of all social actors. Here we present an overview of the effectiveness of the former ALA in the REACT4MED Pilot Area of Heraklion and outlines the supporting actions, both top down and bottom up, planned during the REACT4MED Project to increase the effectiveness of the forthcoming ALA Program by combining good practices with organic and inclusive transformation of all social actors.

References

Arabatzis, G., Christopoulou, O., & Soutsas, K. (2006). The EEC Regulation 2080/92 about forest measures in agriculture. International Journal of Ecodynamics, 1(3), 245–257. https://doi.org/10.2495/ECO-V1-N3-245-257

Daliakopoulos, I. N. (2022). Sustainable Soil and Water Management for Combating Land Degradation and Desertification and Promoting Mediterranean Ecosystem Restoration: The REACT4MED Concept. Third World Conference on the Revitalization of the Mediterranean Diet, 28.

Daliakopoulos, I. N., & Keesstra, S. (2020). TERRAenVISION: Science for Society. Environmental issues today. Science of the Total Environment, 704. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135238

Daliakopoulos, I. N., Panagea, I. S., Tsanis, I. K., Grillakis, M. G., Koutroulis, A. G., Hessel, R., Mayor, A. G., & Ritsema, C. J. (2017). Yield Response of Mediterranean Rangelands under a Changing Climate. Land Degradation & Development. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2717

Nunes, A. N., de Almeida, A. C., & Coelho, C. O. A. (2011). Impacts of land use and cover type on runoff and soil erosion in a marginal area of Portugal. Applied Geography, 31(2), 687–699. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.APGEOG.2010.12.006

Acknowledgements

This work has received funding from REACT4MED: Inclusive Outscaling of Agro-Ecosystem Restoration Actions for the Mediterranean. The REACT4MED Project (grant agreement 2122) is funded by PRIMA, a program supported by Horizon 2020.

How to cite: Daliakopoulos, I., Christoforidi, I., Louloudakis, I., Papadimitriou, D., and Manios, T.: Inclusive Outscaling of the Agricultural Land Afforestation Agro-ecosystem REstoration ACTions in Heraklion, Greece, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17268, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-17268, 2023.

17:40–17:50
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EGU23-12376
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HS5.7
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Virtual presentation
Georgios Papayiannis, Phoebe Koundouri, Achilleas Vassilopoulos, and Athanasios Yannacopoulos

Food security is a key issue in sustainability studies. In this work, a general framework for providing detailed probabilistic socioeconomic scenarios as well as predictions concerning food security is proposed. Our methodology builds (a) on the Bayesian probabilistic version of world population prediction model and (b) on the dependencies of food needs and food system capacities on key drivers, such as population, gross domestic product (GDP) and other socioeconomic and climate indicators. In this perspective, the concept of the recently developed convex risk measures involving model uncertainty is employed for the construction of a risk assessment framework in the context of food security. The proposed method provides within and across the various probabilistic scenarios predictions and evaluations for food security risk. Our methodology is illustrated by studying food security and quantifying the occurring risk in Egypt and Ethiopia up to the year 2050, in the combined context of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).

How to cite: Papayiannis, G., Koundouri, P., Vassilopoulos, A., and Yannacopoulos, A.: On building a general framework for assessing food security risk under probabilistic socioeconomic scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-12376, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12376, 2023.

17:50–18:00

Posters on site: Thu, 27 Apr, 16:15–18:00 | Hall A

Chairpersons: Aitor Corchero Rodriguez, Yue Qin, Edo Abraham
Multi-scale water-energy-food-environment (WEFE) nexus planning
A.51
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EGU23-5114
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HS5.7
Sanghyun Lee, Makoto Taniguchi, Naoki Masuhara, Seung-Hwan Yoo, and Yun-Gyeong Oh

This study aimed to analyze the interaction among watershed, food-producing, and food-demanding areas through the connected system of physical-virtual water flows and local food networks in terms of the transboundary water-food nexus, even though they might not be geographically connected. Here, we analyzed the potential food network of local rice among 47 prefectures in Japan using the gravity model and estimated the physical-virtual water flows (PVWFs) by lining the physical water flow in food-producing areas and virtual water flow embedded in the food network. Through in-and out-degree centralities of the food network, we found that the results of degree centrality revealed which prefecture was more influenced by the changes in self-supply ratios (SSRs) of local rice. As all prefectures intended to increase consumption of local rice that was produced in their area, the scale of the food network was reduced, as shown by the decrease in in-and out-degree centralities. Based on the food network, we analyzed the dependency of food-demanding areas on each watershed based on a connected system of PVWFs. In a case study of the Kansai region, the northern watershed directly affected Hyogo, which was also indirectly influenced by Osaka in terms of PVWFs. In the food network with 20% SSR, the PVWF was estimated to be 189.17 x 106 m3·yr-1 from the northern watershed to Osaka in the food-producing area of the northern watershed, showing higher interaction of Osaka with the northern watershed than with other watersheds.

How to cite: Lee, S., Taniguchi, M., Masuhara, N., Yoo, S.-H., and Oh, Y.-G.: Analysis of Transboundary Water-Food Nexus based on Physical-Virtual Water and Food Trade Network, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5114, 2023.

A.52
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EGU23-12166
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HS5.7
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ECS
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Georgios Moraitis, Christodoulos Fragkoudakis, Spyridon Tsattalios, Dionysios Nikolopoulos, Nikos Pelekanos, Klio Monokrousou, and Christos Makropoulos

The current and future landscape of our societies is predominantly governed by urgent (and interconnected) resilience challenges such as climate change adaptation, resource efficiency and sustainable WEFE nexus management. To overcome those challenges, the European Union (EU) has set the blueprints of transformational changes with the European Green Deal, that builds on research and innovation to meet the objectives. Despite advances in the field, the uptake pace of relevant innovations is often hindered by the narrow communication paths among research, public administration and citizens -who are the end beneficiaries. This work utilizes the capabilities of Digital Twins (DT) to connect hard and soft sensors with environmental and infrastructure models at regional scale, to create a central hub for related data and knowledge to be turned into action in a co-creation process. By building on existing data driven platform initiatives by the Ministry of Environment and Energy and the Decentralized Administration of Attica, we build the DT of the Region of Attica to provide: (i) access to relevant datasets (environmental, climatic, uses of resources etc.), (ii) access to relevant climate adaptation services (e.g. climate services, services to farmers, services to municipalities), (iii) links to local and regional Communities of Practice (CoP) and (iv) a repository for demonstrations of climate adaptation innovations within the region. This knowledge collaboration scheme forms a living lab constellation that allows rapid and far-reaching sharing, accumulation, transformation, and co-creation of knowledge among the administration parties and local case studies’ stakeholders. Like ancient sailors who used constellations to navigate along route, our modern societies can use the living lab constellations of the regional DT to chart evidence-based pathways towards climate resilience and sustainable WEFE management. This dynamic and expandable ecosystem aims to speed up the introduction of climate adaptation innovations, connect knowledge and bring research closer to practice by allowing for a re-wiring of culture, where science and co-creation are perceived as necessary for successful policy making. 

Acknowledgment: This work is supported by IMPETUS research project that has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 101037084.

How to cite: Moraitis, G., Fragkoudakis, C., Tsattalios, S., Nikolopoulos, D., Pelekanos, N., Monokrousou, K., and Makropoulos, C.: Enabling far-reaching living labs through regional Digital Twins, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-12166, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12166, 2023.

A.53
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EGU23-15624
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HS5.7
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ECS
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Highlight
Elena Matta, Andrea Cominola, Chrysi Laspidou, Aitor Corchero Rodriguez, Marco Micotti, Manuel Pulido Velázquez, Matteo Giuliani, and Andrea Castelletti

How to create an impact on policies, operations, and society across the interdisciplinary sectors in which we - as researchers - are involved? Managing the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem (WEFE) nexus and pursuing climate resilience is the core task of several European (EU) projects and is in the highest interests of our society. The European Commission’s research funding programs attempt to address a large range of topics and offer unique opportunities for scientists to create a tangible impact on the environment and society.

We are currently involved in different EU projects, including AWESOME (PRIMA), which aims at managing the WEFE nexus across sectors and scales in the South Mediterranean exploring innovative technologies such as soilless agriculture in the Nile Delta; CLINT (H2020), which is developing Machine Learning (ML) techniques to improve climate science in the detection, causation, and attribution of extreme events to advance climate services; IMPETUS (H2020), whose efforts are dedicated on the elaboration of climate data space enhanced with ML algorithms to support the elaboration of climate policies; REACT4MED (PRIMA), which focuses on combating land degradation and desertification by improving sustainable land and water management through the identification of local good restoration practices and their potential upscaling; Gaza H2.0: Innovation and water efficiency (EuropeAid), which aims at promoting efficient and sustainable water supply and demand as well as knowledge transfer to enhance resilience against water scarcity in Gaza; GoNEXUS (H2020), which is developing an evaluation framework to design and assess innovative solutions for an efficient and sustainable coordinated governance of the WEFE nexus; NexusNet (COST), which creates the network and the community of WEF nexus advocates for a low-carbon economy in Europe and beyond; NEXOGENESIS (H2020), which focuses on streamlining water-related policies with artificial intelligence and reinforcement learning; MAGO (PRIMA), which builds web applications for water and agriculture in the Mediterranean; BIONEXT (HEU), which is interlinked with the Intergovernmental Panel on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services and aims at creating transformative change through nexus analysis.

Despite the efforts of the scientific community, there is still a gap between research and practice. Researchers face difficulties in engaging stakeholders and decision-makers to jointly explore and shape the developed solutions, as well as to truly adopt them. The large-scale implementation of suitable technological solutions might require time and financial resources beyond the project’s lifetime and capacity. The lack of follow-ups and collaboration among projects with similar aims can be some of the reasons lying behind. Also, the complexity of finding open data in data-scarce regions makes results less trustable in the eyes of international agencies, while the pressure of publishing often turns research tasks into pure academic exercises. To what extent does the European strategy work? Is it only gaining scientific advances or also leading to local policy changes? Engaging important local actors (e.g., ministries), small-medium enterprises and societal members in the project consortia, empowering scientists by ensuring feedback loops with local governmental agencies, including the human dimension into modelling, and running effective capacity-building campaigns can be some food for thoughts to shape new strategies.

How to cite: Matta, E., Cominola, A., Laspidou, C., Corchero Rodriguez, A., Micotti, M., Pulido Velázquez, M., Giuliani, M., and Castelletti, A.: How effectively (or not) can science and research be turned into adopted solutions and policies?, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15624, 2023.

A.54
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EGU23-15642
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HS5.7
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ECS
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Lydia Stergiopoulou, Ebun Akinsete, Nouran El-Said, and Phoebe Koundouri

Increasing demand for energy, food and water in the Mediterranean along with the decline of freshwater availability due to climate change necessitate the exploration of options for producing more food with less water, land and energy. Innovations in soilless agriculture aim to address this challenge by exploring novel approaches towards food production including aquaponics and hydroponics. However, inadequate and inefficient legislation and policy frameworks are ill equipped to provide the support necessary for the successful uptake and scale out of these new technologies.  This paper examines the implementation of soilless technologies in the water-stressed Nile River Basin. By applying a stakeholder-centered participatory approach developed by the project which takes into consideration the Water-Energy-Food- Ecosystem (WEFE) Nexus, we present targeted policy recommendations for the development of soilless agriculture in the region which inherently embed the views of key local stakeholders. 

How to cite: Stergiopoulou, L., Akinsete, E., El-Said, N., and Koundouri, P.: Developing policy recommendations to support innovation in soilless agriculture within the Nile River Basin: A participatory approach using Multi-Actor Working Groups, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15642, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15642, 2023.

A.55
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EGU23-15664
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HS5.7
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ECS
Jeongwoo Han, Kihwan Song, and Jinhyung Chon

In general, rural areas are declining due to urbanization and climate change, which affects the agri-food system centered on rural residents. For agri-food systems, the size and connectivity of regional systems are important, and the boundaries of people living in rural areas must be clearly defined. To effectively respond to these problems, the Republic of Korea proposed a policy plan for rural areas. However, there are issues with this approach since it is based on a legal spatial unit—meaning rural residents are not receiving the full breadth of intended benefits. It is necessary to readjust the spatial boundaries by aligning them more closely with the extent of the rural residents' living radius and the standards for services. This study aimed to establish the concept of a living area as it relates to rural areas, present criteria for setting the range and dimensions of a living area, and to then apply it to case studies. The target area was Muju-gun, Korea. It contains rural areas that face various problems such as population decline and aging. First, the concept of the rural living area was established based on insights gained from relevant literature reviews. The rural living area concept was defined as “a unit or range of spaces where rural residents can receive services to live and to support economic activities.” Second, building on the concept of the rural living area, the Muju-gun population, living service facilities, road networks, and watershed items were established, while relevant maps were collected. These materials were leveraged to conduct a network analysis. The closest facility analysis was performed and a network map was developed by overlaying the population and living service facilities with 12 key sectors (childcare, education, welfare, culture, physical education, health, medical care, commerce, finance, administration, transportation, and rest) and using the road network connecting them. Third, the range of living zones classified in order of size (small/medium/large) and by key sector in Muju-gun was derived. Excluding any missing values, a total of 30 Muju-gun living area ranges were drawn and presented. It was asserted that this was due to the fact that life service facilities in Muju-gun vary based on sector and size. The results of this study are particularly meaningful in that they presented a range based on the information that rural residents live in reality, and not an administrative district superimposed by the Republic of Korea—which reflects the existing legal standard unit. Since the derived range was based on the actual living range of rural residents, we expect efficient policy utilization in the planning and management of the agri-food system.

This work was carried out with the support of “Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science and Technology Development(Project No. PJ0171102022)” Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea.

How to cite: Han, J., Song, K., and Chon, J.: Establishment of Rural Living Area Boundary for Sustainable Agri-Food System, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15664, 2023.

A.56
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EGU23-16496
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HS5.7
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ECS
Ansir Ilyas

In recent years, research on the water-energy-land (WEL) nexus has grown significantly not least because of the highly interconnectedness of the respective domains, but also for the crucial nature-economy interactions that underpin the future of our planet. With climate change and biodiversity crises looping, our conventional siloed biophysical and economic models are no longer adequate at providing prudent guidance to the interrelated sustainability questions. A new approach is urgently needed to tackle the issues of nature and the economy. In this research, we are developing a global-scale dynamic system model of nature, macroeconomy and finance that gives guidance on the crucial policy questions on the WEL nexus and biodiversity dynamics. We provide a critique of the existing modeling approaches, our novel conceptualization for a multidimensional model - with crucial elements, interactions, and underlining theories - which provides insights into the underlying source of biodiversity loss and the trade-off between different economic activities to safeguard livelihoods and achieve the so-called ‘nature positive’ pathways.

How to cite: Ilyas, A.: Reconceptualizing macroeconomic dynamics of water-energy-land for nature positive development pathways, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16496, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16496, 2023.

Posters virtual: Thu, 27 Apr, 16:15–18:00 | vHall HS

Chairpersons: Elena Matta, Aitor Corchero Rodriguez
vHS.12
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EGU23-10472
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HS5.7
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ECS
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Jacob Wessel, Jonathan Lamontagne, Gokul Iyer, and Thomas Wild

The ongoing global transition to a deeply decarbonized electricity system represents a complex problem. Deep uncertainty in the future pathways of power system capacity expansion and interactions across sectors has led stakeholders to seek out robust methods capable of informing multi-scale, multi-sector tradeoffs among policy pathways within the energy-water-food nexus. In this study, scenario discovery is applied to a large scenario ensemble generated using a global-scale integrated assessment model with a regional focus on Latin America. Scenario discovery is a powerful method for identifying robust, policy-relevant scenarios from large, many-dimensional ensembles of model realizations. Here, ten uncertain sensitivity factors consistent with previous analyses are varied within the model configuration, representing technological costs and efficiencies, advanced electrification, institutional factors, and national climate pledges, among others. The resulting scenario ensemble maps out the impacts of a combinatorial time-evolving uncertainty space defined by these sensitivity factors, using generation mix, electricity cost, energy burden, and energy intensity as power system performance metrics. Additional metrics are utilized to explore cross-sectoral implications of scenarios. The scenario discovery analysis identifies the key global drivers of regional outcomes in Latin America, as well as tradeoffs and synergies regarding climate change mitigation and the future evolution of the Latin American electric power system. Our results underscore the importance of considering coupled systems and the advantages of large-scale scenario ensembles in capacity expansion analyses.

How to cite: Wessel, J., Lamontagne, J., Iyer, G., and Wild, T.: Scenario discovery with an integrated assessment model to identify robust, policy-relevant scenarios for capacity expansion in Latin America, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-10472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-10472, 2023.

vHS.13
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EGU23-12746
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HS5.7
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ECS
Leila Mostefaoui

Given the complexity of the interactions between water, energy, and food, any alteration to one sector can have impacts on the other sectors of the system.(Sušnik et al., 2018).Scientists are increasingly recognizing the need for an integrative approach to planning and managing resources. Hoff explained that several factors have influenced the demand for water, energy, and food, and listed the following; population growth, sustainable development, climate change, degradation, and scarcity of resources.(Hoff & Ulrich, 2017)

Algeria is ranked 1st among the Arab countries which have exceeded two-thirds of the way to achieving the SDGs (Dahan et al., 2019.), but according to Hoff (Hoff & Ulrich, 2017), the countries in the MENA region have not made remarkable progress in adopting the nexus approach due to several constraints such as lack of experience and insufficient management planning. ((Hoff & Ulrich, 2017).  As part of establishing the nexus approach in Algeria, we have selected the region of Ain Temouchent as a case study known for its agricultural vocation.

Ain Temouchent is located on located in the northwestern of Algeria, 520 km from the capital Algiers, and a hundred kilometers from the border Moroccan. And limited: to the North, by the Mediterranean Sea, to the South West, by Tlemcen, to the South East, Sidi Bel Abbes, and, to the east, by Oran. The region area is about 2,376 km² with a façade sea of 84 km and the population is over 406,000. The agricultural sector represents 15.22%, and the construction sector employs 14.19% of the employed population. The region of Ain-Temouchent is characterized by a Mediterranean climate with a hot summer and a temperate winter. The intensification of agricultural production in this region has led to the overexploitation of groundwater resources, and the establishment of a combined cycle thermal power station has accentuated its path towards a more considerable development, following its satisfaction in electrical energy. The establishment of a reverse osmosis desalination plant (Benisaf Water Company) with a production capacity of 200,000m3/day significantly alleviated the crisis situation, but its energy consumption and environmental impact raise several questions

Considering all these segments, one of the objectives of the study is to determine the key links between segments of the Nexus and understand the dynamics between them using System Dynamics Modeling. ((Aliyev et al., 2019))

This work aims to determine the links between water, food, and energy and to analyze the dynamics between them, also to propose solutions and recommendations for developing effective policies for the region.

 

How to cite: Mostefaoui, L.: Water-Energy-Food nexus in Algeria; Ain Temouchent case study, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-12746, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12746, 2023.

vHS.14
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EGU23-16592
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HS5.7
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ECS
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Jaap Bos, Jikke van Wijnen, Angelique Lansu, and Winnie Leenes-Gerbens

Abstract

Forests mitigate climate change by storing CO2 as wood and providing wood for products with a long economic residence time. This study examined the extent to which common Dutch homogeneous forests can contribute to climate mitigation if the harvested wood is processed into products. A model was set up which calculates the CO2 stock in the atmosphere for varying residence times of harvested wood in the economy and also determines the influence of this residence time on the optimal harvest age. Existing yield tables of Dutch homogenous forest were used as input data. This study showed that homogeneous forests in the Netherlands can extract a maximum of between 7 and 17 Mg of CO2 per hectare annually, depending on the tree species. For all tree species, the CO2 extracted from the atmosphere approaches this maximum as the residence time in the economy increases. The optimum felling age is not fixed, but varies depending on the economic residence time. The construction of 660,000 wooded single-family homes until 2050 with a lifetime of 150 years will remove an average of 1,5 Tg from the atmosphere annually. If the total forest area in the Netherlands is used to store wood in the economy for 150 years, an average of almost 6 Tg will be extracted annually. This is relatively low compared to the annual Dutch CO2 emissions of 150 Tg, but it is an option that fits well into the mix of other options that can contribute to climate change mitigation.

How to cite: Bos, J., van Wijnen, J., Lansu, A., and Leenes-Gerbens, W.: Climate mitigation using wood in the Netherlands: a modelling approach from family home to national scale, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16592, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16592, 2023.